The Chief Economist’s Note

The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were … Continue reading “The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices”

While US readers were settling in for Thanksgiving dinners, those of us on the other side of the pond were left to pick over the remains of a Brexit deal that looks dead on arrival. Our UK economists have covered the various twists and turns in detail and copies of the various publications are available … Continue reading “Picking through the Brexit shambles”

Brexit, oil and tech stocks grabbed the headlines last week but it was third quarter GDP data from Germany and Japan that provided the most ominous signs about the outlook for the global economy. Japan’s economy contracted by 0.3% q/q in the third quarter, while Germany’s contracted by 0.2% q/q. The sheer size of both … Continue reading “Worrying signs in the latest data”

The recent flow of both news and data from Europe has painted an increasingly gloomy picture and events this week are unlikely to provide much respite, with Italy’s government facing a deadline on Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget to Brussels and then GDP data due on Wednesday likely to show that Germany’s economy barely … Continue reading “Distilling the gloomy news from Europe”

Victory for Jair Bolsonaro in last weekend’s presidential election in Brazil has once again led to questions about the links between rising populism and economic growth. This is becoming well-trodden ground, which we’ve written about lots in the past. Mr Bolsonaro follows in the wake of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, Victor Orbán and Jarosław … Continue reading “The economics of rising populism”

Last week saw a further escalation in the standoff between the EU and Italy, with Brussels taking the unprecedented step of rejecting Rome’s budget plan for 2019. We’ve written about the simmering crisis in Italy at length, both from an economic and a market perspective. At the heart of the disagreement, however, is a deeper … Continue reading “The economics of Italy’s fiscal tightrope”

In a week of breathless headlines (Brexit, Italy and Brexit again…) last Monday’s news that the US budget deficit widened to a six-year high of $779bn in the fiscal year ending September 30th crept under the radar. As a share of GDP, the deficit is now running at 3.9%, up from 3.5% in 2017-18. The … Continue reading “The real reason to worry about the US deficit”

Hello. My name is Neil Shearing and I’m the Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. This is the first edition of a new publication – the Chief Economist’s Note. It will be published every Monday and will reflect upon key developments in the global economy and what they mean for our clients. It will be … Continue reading “What will cause the next global downturn?”