Property Economics

Matthew Pointon works on the US housing market service and is based in New York. Previously, Matthew worked as an economist at HM Treasury, where among other roles he covered the macroeconomics of the housing and household sector.

He holds an undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Bath, and an MSc in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Bristol.

Articles published by Matthew Pointon

• The anatomy of a housing market downturn
• New Home Sales (May)
• Existing Home Sales (May)
• Surge in mortgage rates makes house price falls likely
• Housing Starts (May)
• Existing home sales set for a sharper fall
• Housing demand falls as mortgage rates rise
• Is remote work responsible for the house price boom?
• Mortgage Applications (May)
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.)
• NYC apartment rental growth will cool rapidly
• New Home Sales (Apr.)
• Mortgage debt service ratio to remain low
• Existing Home Sales (Apr.)
• Housing Starts (Apr.)
• Mortgage rate rise hits housing market activity
• Rise in rates to bring more vacant homes to market
• Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens
• Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.)
• Can cash buyers keep house prices booming?
• Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
• Housing Starts (Mar.)
• Desperate buyers give home sales and prices a boost
• Mortgage rates set to rise to over 5%
• Apartment Metro Outlook
• Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.)
• New Home Sales (Feb.)
• Will mortgage spreads keep rising?
• Rise in mortgage rates cools housing market activity
• Will rental growth continue to boom?
• Mortgage Applications (Feb.)
• Are housing valuations reaching dangerous highs?
• New Home Sales (Jan.)
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.)
• Existing Home Sales (Jan.)
• Shift to South helps homes get bigger
• Housing Starts (Jan.)
• Ballooning mortgage size not a risk to the market
• House price and rental growth to ease in 2022
• Household formation stalls as costs mount
• Mortgage Applications (Jan.)
• Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens
• New Home Sales (Dec.)
• Key US Housing Market Calls for 2022
• Housing Starts (Dec.)
• Rising mortgage rates to cool housing market in 2022
• Material shortages hit housing completions
• Mortgage Applications (Dec.)
• New Home Sales (Nov.)
• Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q4 2021)
• Will major coastal city rents continue to get cheaper?
• Housing activity surges even as mortgage rates rise
• Mortgage Applications (Nov.)
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.)
• Why are pending and existing home sales diverging?
• New Home Sales (Oct.)
• MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads
• Housing Starts (Oct.)
• Outlook good for mortgage delinquencies
• House price growth cools as rents take off
• Booming home sales fail to raise homeownership rate
• Mortgage Applications (Oct.)
• Rising mortgage rates will cool house price growth
• Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Aug./Sep.)
• Are too many homes being built?
• Existing Home Sales (Sep.)
• Housing Starts (Sep.)
• Rising mortgage rates will help cool booming prices
• Will sales of condos continue to outperform?
• Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
• Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q3 2021)
• Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.)
• New Home Sales (Aug.)
• Existing Home Sales (Aug.)
• Housing Starts (Aug.)
• Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound
• New apartments will start to get larger soon
• Soaring prices and lack of supply weigh on activity
• How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates?
• End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents
• The last house price boom?
• Home sales and house prices to moderate
• Conditions tighten in homeowner and rental markets
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May)
• New Home Sales (Jun.)
• Home sales to ease even as mortgage rates stay low
• Will booming house prices translate into rents?
• Home demand drops as prices surge
• Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q2 2021)
• Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom
• Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing
• What’s driving the surge in rent expectations?
• Home sales cool and prices will soon follow
• House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble
• Will expensive home sales keep booming?
• Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.)
• Outlook bright for home improvement spending
• Increased demand for larger apartments to persist
• Worsening affordability hits home buying sentiment
• Savings will support down payments and house prices
• Surging house prices not bringing vacants to market
• New Home Sales (Mar.)
• High lumber costs won’t cut starts or boost prices
• Higher mortgage rates to cool red hot housing market
• Housing Starts (Mar.)
• Record low inventory brings sales back to earth
• Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
• NYC and D.C. to benefit from COVID bounce-back
• Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.)
• Is buying sentiment pointing to a crash in home sales?
• Existing Home Sales (Feb.)
• Rising rates will cool, not crash, the housing market
• Rise in cash-out volume not a risk to the recovery
• Jump in mortgage rates hits housing demand
• Reopening less of a positive for Boston apartments
• Mortgage Applications (Feb.)
• High lumber prices force builders to delay
• New Home Sales (Jan.)
• Existing Home Sales (Jan.)
• High unemployment to benefit homebuilders
• Rising mortgage rates to temper demand
• Homeownership rate to hold steady in 2021
• Mortgage Applications (Jan.)
• New Home Sales (Dec.)
• How big might the foreclosure wave be?
• Existing Home Sales (Dec.)
• Narrowing spread will keep mortgage rates low
• Home sales to cool as affordability worsens
• Key Calls for 2021
• Mortgage Applications (Dec.)
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Oct.)
• Housing market to cool in 2021
• Existing Home Sales (Nov.)
• NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover
• NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover
• Boom in house price growth will prove short-lived
• Early signs that exodus from cities is easing
• Mortgage Applications (Nov.)
• Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Sep.)
• Existing Home Sales (Oct.)
• Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand
• Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand
• Housing Starts (Oct.)
• Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand
• Demand for expensive homes surges
• Jump in asking rents points to move away from cities
• Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Aug.)
• New Home Sales (Sep.)
• Rise in mortgage payments an upside for house prices
• Existing Home Sales (Sep.)
• Housing Starts (Sep.)
• Home sales to fall as inventory runs out
• Home sales will run out of steam soon
• Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
• Supply of new homes running out
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.)
• New Home Sales (Aug.)
• FHFA House Prices (Jul.)
• Existing Home Sales (Aug.)
• Housing Starts (Aug.)
• Purchase demand to support multifamily construction
• Commercial Property Lending (Aug.)
• Home sales surge as rental growth slows
• The outlook for housing in a post-COVID world
• Will the eviction ban boost rent arrears?
• Mortgage Applications (Aug.)
• Inflation target change won’t turbocharge house prices
• Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Jun./Jul.)
• Existing Home Sales (Jul)
• Foreclosure backlog to unwind in final quarter
• Housing Starts (Jul.)
• Mortgage credit scores jump, and will stay high
• Record low mortgage rates boost housing activity
• Mortgage Applications (Jul.)
• Homeownership has not been given a COVID boost
• Case-Shiller House Prices (May)
• New Home Sales (Jun.)
• Lack of inventory to weigh on home sales recovery
• FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (May/Jun.)
• Housing Starts (Jun.)
• Second wave argues against rapid home sales recovery
• Strong home demand to support sales and building
• Larger mortgages won’t necessarily boost price growth
• Will a flood of new apartments boost vacancies?
• Mortgage Applications (Jun.)
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.)
• FHFA House Prices (Apr.)
• New Home Sales (May)
• Existing Home Sales (May)
• Inventory outlook worsens
• Housing Starts (May)
• Will the rental market bounce back?
• Home purchase mortgage applications surge
• Explaining the recovery in home purchase demand
• Mortgage Applications (May)
• Why have new home sales shrugged off COVID?
• Existing Home Sales (Apr.)
• Starts well-placed to recover as country reopens
• Housing Starts (Apr.)
• House price expectations turn negative
• Sales heading to record lows
• Forbearance not a path to foreclosure
• Mortgage Applications (Apr.)
• COVID to halt rise in homeownership
• Are HELOC draws set to surge?
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb.)
• Government support will prevent surge in rent arrears
• New Home Sales (Mar.)
• Home sales to drop to record lows
• Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
• Early data indicate big, but short-lived, housing impact
• Housing Starts (Mar.)
• Residential REITs not pointing to house price crash
• Housing demand to collapse as virus takes hold
• Housing starts to suffer permanent loss from COVID
• Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
• House prices to fall by 4%
• Fiscal package will prevent record high delinquencies
• New Home Sales (Feb.)
• Existing Home Sales (Feb.)
• Home sales to fall by 35%
• Housing Starts (Feb.)
• Will Fed action bring down mortgage rates?
• Buyer traffic will give first clue on COVID-19 impact
• Coronavirus to weigh on housing market activity
• Mortgage Applications (Feb.)
• Rapid refinancing cuts the cash-out share
• New Home Sales (Jan.)
• Mortgage rates unlikely to hit record lows
• Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.)
• Existing Home Sales (Jan.)
• Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage
• Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage
• Housing Starts (Jan.)
• Could the coronavirus derail the housing market?
• Rental vacancy rates set for a small rise in 2020
• Mortgage Applications (Jan.)
• Encouraging rise in vacant homes being repaired
• Stretched valuations to keep lid on house price growth
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.)
• New Home Sales (Dec.)
• Constraints on homebuilding beginning to ease
• FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (Nov./Dec.)
• Key calls for 2020
• Housing Starts (Dec.)
• Single-family housing starts set for another strong year
• Debt-to-income ratio key for house price outlook
• Mortgage Applications (Dec.)
• New Home Sales (Nov.)
• Low mortgage rates will give housing starts a boost
• Existing Home Sales (Nov.)
• Housing Starts (Nov.)
• The QM patch needs to be replaced, but with what?
• Low mortgage rates here to stay
• Mortgage Applications (Nov.)
• Refinancing demand set for another strong year
• Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Sep./Oct)
• Mortgage rates to stay close to 4% over next two years
• Existing Home Sales (Oct.)
• Housing Starts (Oct.)
• Builders begin slow move back to starter homes
• Supply of starter homes no better in rental market
• Mortgage Applications (Oct.)
• Tight markets support rental growth
• Inventory of cheaper homes has halved since 2012
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.)
• New Home Sales (Sep.)
• FHFA House Prices (Aug.)
• Could house price growth accelerate?
• Existing Home Sales (Sep.)
• Housing Starts (Sep.)
• Headwinds for NYC home buyers, but not for rents
• Slowing economy weighs on buyer sentiment
• Rise in appraisal threshold a positive, but a small one
• Tighter credit conditions rule out sales recovery
• Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
• Pending home sales taking longer to close
• New Home Sales (Aug.)
• Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Jul.)
• Existing Home Sales (Aug.)
• Californian rent controls may boost new developments
• Housing Starts (Aug.)
• Why have mortgage spreads widened?
• Demand unresponsive to lower mortgage rates
• Mortgage Applications (Aug.)
• Tighter credit conditions another brake on home sales
• Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Jun.)
• New Home Sales (Jul.)
• How will rents perform as the economy slows?
• Existing Home Sales (Jul.)
• House prices to benefit from lower mortgage rates
• Housing Starts (Jul.)
• Rise in sentiment good news for starts, not sales
• Mortgage borrowers well placed to weather slowdown
• Mortgage Applications (Jul.)
• Lack of inventory keeps home sales grounded
• What’s driving the gap between mortgages and sales?
• Case-Shiller House Prices (May)
• Drop in homeownership rate won’t be reversed soon
• New Home Sales (Jun.)
• FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (May/Jun.)
• Cut in premium won’t halt drop in FHA market share
• Housing Starts (Jun.)
• Surge in mortgage approvals not expected to last
• Fall in mortgage interest rates won’t spark recovery
• Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Apr./May)