Product and Engineering

Articles published by Karthik AK

• Stronger growth not generating major imbalances
• Fears of protectionism weigh on prices
• Household debt will remain a risk for years to come
• Headwinds mount
• External trade (May)
• Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle
• Manufacturing Sales (Apr.)
• Should we be worried by softer pay growth?
• Why are we so bullish on Nordic office rents?
• What could upend the ECB’s plans?
• EM export growth already starting to slow
• Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) & Goods Trade (Apr.)
• Banks report rise in demand from riskier borrowers
• ECB strikes dovish tone as asset purchases set to end
• Mixed data to keep the hawks in the minority
• Retail Sales (May)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (May.)
• West Africa: Easing cycles will continue
• Is the euro-zone’s recovery too good to last?
• Is the rise of flexible offices distorting vacancy rates?
• Central Bank of Iceland on hold but rate rises coming
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May)
• UK House Price Index (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.)
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May)
• Where will office rents rise fastest?
• Employment (Apr.)
• Labour Market (Apr.)
• Rising incomes good news for rental growth
• Commercial property investment (May)
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.)
• Financial stability concerns unlikely to lead to tightening
• Norwegian Consumer Prices (May)
• At the tipping point
• Scandinavia and Switzerland look late-cycle
• Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands
• Stronger data keeps August hike on the cards
• Mixed signals from Italy’s new government
• Icelandic GDP (Q1)
• What will happen to Italy’s TARGET2 liabilities?
• Price pressures continue to ease
• Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil
• Apartment construction rebounds
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1, Breakdown)
• Halifax House Prices (May.)
• What are the prospects for the leisure sector?
• Inflationary pressures in Iceland set to grow
• Mortgage Applications (May)
• Swiss Consumer Prices (May)
• Signs of a consumer revival
• Is Italy a worry for Switzerland and the Nordics?
• Markit/CIPS Services PMI (May)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
• Swedish Private Production (Apr.)
• We don’t expect the rebound in global equities to continue
• Spending outlook brightens
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (May)
• Should we worry about rising GCC public debt?
• UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May)
• A boom but no bust?
• Italy turmoil boosts Swiss franc and government bonds
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.)
• Lending to commercial property (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
• Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May)
• Swiss & Danish GDP (Q1)
• Will turmoil in Italy spark contagion?
• What might cause property yields to rise sharply?
• Are rising house price expectations a concern?
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (May)
• Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss KOF
• Rising oil prices won’t prevent a consumer recovery
• TARGET2 imbalances highlight Italy’s fragile situation
• Turkey: more to monetary policy shift than meets the eye
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.)
• Key questions about Italy
• Household credit growth slows sharply
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
• A snap election would be good for Spain
• US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations
• IPF Consensus Forecasts
• Will rising oil prices hold the economy back?
• Pulling down our currency forecasts
• Durable Goods (Apr.)
• Early signs of a consumer revival
• What’s holding single-family starts back?
• Will the ECB’s hopes on growth be dashed?
• Global Steel Production (Apr.)
• Hard evidence of a landlord sell-off
• German retail well beyond peak occupier demand
• GDP Second Estimate (Q1)
• UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Apr.)
• German Ifo Survey (May)
• Does the oil price determine other commodity prices?
• Will the dollar continue to recover?
• Relief for the Turkish lira proves fleeting
• FHFA Prices / Existing Home Sales (Mar./Apr.)
• Bank to remain on the side lines
• Strong payrolls to keep Fed on track for June rate hike
• Will Italy’s new government cause a crisis?
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Little movement in rents or yields
• New Home Sales (Apr.)
• Majority of markets overvalued
• Will Swedish wage growth ever pick up?
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• UK House Price Index (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May)
• Is the sterling boost over?
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
• The implications of Switzerland’s “Vollgeld” referendum
• Public Finances (Apr.)
• Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)
• How long will the strength in jobs growth last?
• Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come?
• Running out of steam
• Investment market losing momentum
• Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates
• Why the MPC won’t fall too far behind the Fed
• Will transactions fall further?
• Commercial property investment (April.)
• M5S/League proposals highlight risks to Italian bonds
• Housing Starts (Apr.)
• Q1 weakness a prelude to slower growth this year
• UK Finance Lending Trends
• Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now
• Colombia GDP (Q1)
• Why is housing equity withdrawal falling back?
• BJP election surge in Karnataka boosts reform prospects
• Argentina: lessons from 2001/02
• Are Western city house prices overheating?
• Macron’s first year bodes well for France
• MPC unlikely to wait too long
• Subdued spring for the housing market
• Are we too optimistic on Dublin retail rents?
• Solid occupier markets to support capital values
• Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now
• Mortgage rates are still on an upward path
• MPC to wait for evidence that slowdown is temporary
• Should we worry about a M5S-League alliance?
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.)
• Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors
• Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI (Apr.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.)
• Buyers rush in to beat rising mortgage interest rates
• Riksbank minutes tinged with hawkish comments
• Halifax House Prices (Apr.)
• Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities
• Will Brexit red lines be rubbed out?
• What do higher oil prices mean for euro-zone inflation?
• Why did the OBR get its fiscal forecasts so wrong?
• The outlook for mortgage demand
• Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.)
• GDP: Preliminary Estimate (Q1)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• French and Spanish GDP (Q4) & Flash CPI (Apr.)
• Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1)
• ECB likely to keep quiet on monetary policy until July
• World trade growth holding up well (for now)
• Will the Swiss franc continue to weaken?
• Any pause before rates rise again will be short
• New Home Sales (Mar.)
• Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Feb.)
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr.)
• Public Finances (Mar.)
• Investment activity slows over start of 2018
• German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
• Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.)
• Tighter monetary policy on the horizon
• Does falling inflation support or undermine case for rate hike?
• Global Aluminium Production (Mar.)
• Slowdown on the horizon
• Three more years of housing market malaise
• Trade war fears overblown, for now
• Policymaking takes turn for the worse as elections approach
• Expect “closed-mouth” operations from Mr Draghi
• Economy to withstand higher interest rates
• Changed Riksbank guidance will still signal 2018 rate rise
• Outlook for real pay brightens
• Are Amsterdam office rents getting too high?
• RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1)
• Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come
• Will blockchain revolutionise the property industry?
• Should we fear a Labour government?
• UK House Price Index (Feb.)
• Rental value growth holding up well
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.)
• Housing Starts (Mar.)
• German ZEW Survey (Apr.)
• Labour Market (Feb.)
• Employment (Feb.)
• Jump in debt-to-income ratios not yet a concern
• Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs
• Housing market remains muted
• Hong Kong interest rates to rise as liquidity tightens
• Where is the euro heading?
• Five more years of pain for Warsaw office rents
• Softer data probably won’t deter MPC
• Trade fears weigh on Swiss franc and Swedish krona
• Euro-zone Trade (Feb.)
• Housing woes to keep Bank on the side lines
• China Treasury holdings offer little leverage in trade spat
• Single-family rental growth will continue to outperform
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.)
• Commercial property investment (Mar.)
• Single-family starts stall despite tight market conditions
• Is Spanish inflation set to pick up?
• French, Italian & Dutch Industrial Production (Feb.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
• Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Will a lack of prime CBD stock boost Paris office rents?
• Rising interest rates, trade tensions loom over HK
• Halifax House Prices (Mar.)
• Should we worry about the softening in the surveys?
• Growth suffers weather-related dip
• No sign of a housing market revival
• International Trade (Feb.)
• Lending data add to evidence that growth has peaked
• Completions to take the edge off Milan rental growth
• Will Bitcoin keep moving with risky assets?
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.)
• Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.)
• Have regional office yields found a floor?
• Swedish Private Production (Feb.)
• Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.)
• Stockholm capital values set to slide from 2019
• How did the Nordic & Swiss economies fare in Q1?
• Decline in negative equity will support homebuilding
• How will Germany fare under its new Government?
• Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• Economic strength keeps French fiscal reform on track
• Consumers relying on saving less
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.)
• German Flash CPI (Mar.)
• Will trade fears dent growth?
• High pricing to cool German investment market
• Lending to commercial property (Feb.)
• Q4 Quarterly National Accounts & Money and Credit
• Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
• Swiss KOF (Mar.)
• Could housebuilders be doing more?
• The impact of faster earnings growth on house prices
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar.)
• Has economic growth really slowed?
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)
• Is the long-term outlook really so bad?
• Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Mar.), Trade & PPI (Feb.)
• Ghana: Easing cycle continues
• Would a Five Star-League alliance really be that bad?
• UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Feb.)
• And now for some good news on world trade
• Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations
• New Home Sales (Feb.)
• How far and how fast will interest rates rise?
• Will commercial property lending pick up in 2018?
• Continued weakness on the high street
• SNB’s large-scale intervention era is drawing to a close
• FHFA House Prices (Jan.)
• MPC still on track for a May hike
• Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Housebuilding (Q4)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.)
• Existing Home Sales (Feb.)
• Russia Activity Data (Feb.)
• Will productivity growth start to pick up?
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Mar.)
• When will Iceland drop its remaining capital controls?
• Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) & Public Finances (Feb.)
• Employment (Jan.)
• Total returns set to slow throughout the region
• Rental growth has peaked
• Tight markets support house price and rental growth
• Rice prices to come off the boil
• The outlook for bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics
• German ZEW Survey (Mar.)
• UK House Price Index (Jan.)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.)
• Euro-zone Trade (Jan.)
• Inflation outturns weak
• Negotiators set for a frantic weekend in Brussels
• The OBR is still too gloomy
• What is the ECB trying to tell us?
• Housing Starts (Feb.)
• Latest stress test won’t derail bank lending
• Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q4)
• MPC still on track for May hike
• Fiscal stimulus will prompt more monetary tightening
• What is the rise in the LIBOR-OIS spread really telling us?
• Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth
• Sri Lanka GDP (Q4)
• London Housing Chart Book: London market set for downturn
• Irish GDP (Q4)
• How strong is alternative property investment?
• Credit spreads likely to rise again before long
• SNB to lag ECB in policy normalisation
• S&P 500’s valuation is unlikely to cause its demise
• US equities not grossly overvalued, but still vulnerable
• Fed stepping up the pace of policy tightening
• Is a parallel currency the answer to Italy’s problems?
• Sell-off in gilts abates
• Labour shortages won’t prompt surge in wage growth
• Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Euro-zone Ind. Production (Jan.) & Employment (Q4)
• Commercial property investment (Feb.)
• Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Spring Statement Response – Jam tomorrow
• Have London house prices reached a tipping point?
• UK Spring Statement 2018 Checklist
• Strong rental demand keeps vacancy rate in check
• Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.)
• EU guidelines pave the way for a “Canada-style” deal
• ECB QE has changed this year in more ways than one
• Severe weather won’t cool growth in Q1
• How big a deal is the new lower inflation target?
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.)
• Norway CPI (Feb) & Iceland GDP (Q4)
• German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jan.)
• Are interest rate rises in Switzerland in sight?
• Loosening bias gone, but tightening is some way off
• No sign of a revival in development activity
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.)
• A trade war against China would not be “easy to win”
• Central Bank of Iceland on hold for time being
• Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to struggle?
• Housing market settles after rate hike
• Mortgage Applications (Feb.)
• Consumer spending dampened by temporary factors
• Will the end of PPI pay-outs hit spending growth?
• Euro-zone GDP (Q4)
• Halifax House Prices (Feb.)
• German core inflation to rise only gradually
• Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall
• Retailer closures highlight sector’s woes
• Russia CPI (Feb.)
• Headwinds loom for Moscow office rents
• Recovery in PMIs eases fears of continued slowdown
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
• Swiss CPI (Feb.) & Swedish Production (Jan.)
• Trade spat not (yet) a big deal for global growth
• How worrying are Trump’s tariffs for the euro-zone?
• Low rental yields in the West not yet a risk for prices
• EZ Retail Sales (Jan.), PMIs (Feb.) & Greek GDP (Q4)
• Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Feb.)
• Turkey CPI (Feb.)
• After Italy’s election, what happens next?
• Declining tax competitiveness hurting investment
• Italian bond spreads could rise after the election
• Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising
• GDP (Q4 2017)
• Trump, tariffs and potential triggers
• Pain ahead for property developers
• Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small
• Turkey’s trade deficit signals a revival of past vulnerabilities
• EM manufacturing remains in good shape
• New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.)
• Have we seen the last of IT-driven gains in EM equities?
• Payrolls boosted by unwinding of weather distortion
• Brazil GDP (Q4)
• Putin 4.0 unlikely to step up to the economic challenge
• Bank of Japan unlikely to buy foreign bonds
• China PMIs diverge again
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)
• Are the good times over for Asian equities?
• Equity markets stabilise on state support
• Will rising bond yields undermine equities again?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Surge in Brazil’s stock market looks unsustainable
• Appetite for international bond sales remains strong
• Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now
• GDP (Q4)
• Monetary policy cycles nearing turning points
• Africa: US equity correction outweighs political drama
• Hong Kong to cool in 2018
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.)
• US Fed to tighten further than previously expected
• Looser fiscal policy means Treasury yields have further to rise
• What do higher US interest rates mean for the Gulf?
• Durable Goods (Jan.) & Fed Chair Powell Testimony
• Gloss comes off the EM recovery
• Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)
• Nigeria GDP (Q4 2017)
• Further slowdown of EM GDP growth
• Rising political risks shouldn’t derail recovery
• Political drama overshadows gradual recovery
• Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets
• President for life?
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.)
• Why Africa won’t be the next EM powerhouse
• Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso?
• Tunisia: will new central bank boss herald a policy shift?
• Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)
• Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way
• Local markets unable to escape global rout
• Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead
• Firing on all cylinders
• South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit
• Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
• Egypt: inflation to fall further and stay low
• Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking
• Nigeria: Rebound is underway
• Egyptian bond yields likely to fall further
• German ZEW Survey (Feb.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Russia Activity Data (Jan.)
• South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma?
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)
• Valuations of US equities still look high after correction
• Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.)
• CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017
• Saudi economy turning the corner
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
• Policy to remain loose under new BoJ leadership
• External vulnerabilities continue to diminish
• Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Picking apart the global equity sell-off
• Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018
• Philippines: Will manufacturing continue to outperform?
• Market turmoil won’t derail expansion
• Reserve Bank is right to turn more hawkish
• Rethinking the yen
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up
• No changes to Philippines policy rate in 2018
• EM credit spreads likely to rise further
• Russia CPI (Jan.)
• FX Reserves (Jan.)
• Egypt’s budget deficit to narrow further
• RBI turns more hawkish
• 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends
• Inflation on the rise
• Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency
• CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects
• Egypt’s gas sector experiencing a renaissance
• EM governments and the great bond sell-off
• Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA economy
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.)
• What will the ECB do about rising Bund yields?
• Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain
• Debate will soon turn to tightening
• BoJ underscores line in the sand
• EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels
• Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month
• Russia GDP (2017)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
• FY18/19 budget: fiscal deficit targets relaxed
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
• Does it make sense to rotate into equities out of bonds?
• Who’s afraid of a China slowdown?
• Equities and currencies make strong start to 2018
• Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early 2018
• Narrowing of Gulf interbank spreads has gone too far
• Taiwan GDP (Q4 Advanced)
• Strong start to 2018
• Rate hikes to be the exception rather than the norm
• EM GDP growth loses steam in Q4
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
• Are overvalued equities starting to lose their appeal?
• Saving rate going to zero…and that’s okay (probably)
• Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.)
• Infrastructure spending still a tough sell in Congress
• Region to mount a recovery
• EM inflation to drift higher
• Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports
• Flying start to the year for EM equities unlikely to last
• Foreign workers continue to ease labour shortages
• Getting back into gear
• What do high oil prices mean for Asia?
• It is all about the dollar
• Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices
• Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts?
• Will the Fed spoil the party?
• Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise
• GDP (Q4 1st Estimate)
• Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain
• Consumer Price Index (Dec.)
• Will the party last without the punchbowl?
• Cycle to turn in 2018
• Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure
• BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure
• New Home Sales (Dec.)
• Is the only way up for the euro?
• Russia Activity Data (Dec.)
• Growth stabilises at the end of 2017
• Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.)
• Revised TPP deal still good news for Asian members
• Qatar’s economy weathering diplomatic crisis
• Industry hits a sweet spot
• South Africa CPI (Dec.)
• What effect is Trump’s repatriation tax having on the markets?
• Trump still pulling his punches on China trade
• What do US tariffs mean for Asia?
• A strong end to 2017 (for most)
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.)
• Saudi recovery on the way – but relief to be short-lived
• Some positive news in late 2017
• What to make of Italy’s centre-right policy programme
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018
• Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & Nigeria
• Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.)
• Banxico: navigating choppy waters…
• Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
• EM markets off to a flyer, despite softer economic data
• Poland Activity Data (Dec.)
• CEE currencies: it’s the economy, stupid!
• Korea set for strong 2018, but not because of the Olympics
• Will strong global demand support China in 2018?
• Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018
• South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish language
• How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise?
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.)
• Further rate cuts in Indonesia likely by mid-year
• Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer
• Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going?
• GDP (Q4) & Activity & Spending (Dec.)
• What next for Brazil?
• South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4
• Growth to slow from a five-year high
• Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse
• Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound
• Quick thoughts on the recent jump in oil prices
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)
• Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy
• Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)
• How fast will the BoJ reduce its asset purchases?
• Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.)
• Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further
• Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year
• Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of EMs
• S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect
• PBOC’s hands are tied over US Treasury holdings
• The economic impact of rising oil prices
• Is the Bank of Japan about to raise its yield target?
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Will Vietnam’s export sector continue to outperform?
• Argentina fixing fiscal mess but wavering on inflation
• Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect
• Saudi bonuses to lift growth but raise fears over reform
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)
• Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.)
• Inflation set to jump
• Inflation set to accelerate again
• Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.)
• Growth in Brazil & Mexico probably picked up in Q4
• Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect
• Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran
• Price pressures strengthening again
• Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.)
• Foreigners aren’t to blame for high house prices
• GDP by Industry (Oct.)
• 2018 will be as good as it gets
• Durable Goods / Personal Income & Spending (Nov.)
• 2018: How can it all go wrong?
• A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework
• Dollar peg fears ease, but Lebanon remains vulnerable
• What to expect in 2018
• A stellar 2017, repeat in 2018 unlikely
• What could be done to lower private surpluses?
• Frontier economies to strengthen in 2018
• EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next?
• Saudi 2018 budget unveils modest fiscal loosening
• Hungarian MPC still dovish, but tide may be slowly turning
• A strong 2017 – but 2018 likely to be more challenging
• Another conundrum in the Treasury market
• EM inflation to rise in 2018
• Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.)
• ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses
• Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)
• Daesh downfall offers respite for smaller economies
• Russia’s mini-banking crisis rumbles on
• Just how overvalued is the US stock market now?
• Economy much cooler as year ends
• Will Portugal’s bonds outperform Italy’s again in 2018?
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Dec.)
• Philippines: tax reforms a welcome step
• A strong 2017 – but 2018 will be more challenging
• Sri Lanka GDP (Q3)
• What to make of the surge in producer prices?
• Piñera prevails but reform agenda will meet resistance
• Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect
• Who gains most from ECB corporate bond purchases?
• Rise in HK interest rates to weigh on property prices
• Strong year for EM exports, but 2018 set to be softer
• Pakistan: Where next for the rupee?
• Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018
• A mixed end to 2017
• What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget
• Monetary policy hasn’t lost its capacity to surprise
• Key calls for EMs in 2018
• Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets
• No rate hikes next year in the Philippines
• South Africa Current Account (Q3)
• Regional inflation bottoms out
• South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4
• Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again)
• What to expect from markets in 2018
• Surveys point to stronger wage pressures next year
• Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Saudi politics emerges as key economic risk
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.)
• Should we be concerned about German house prices?
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
• Is there any value left in German real estate?
• Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Weak infrastructure to remain a drag on growth prospects
• Has the unemployment rate reached a floor?
• What would an AMLO presidency mean for Mexico?
• What would US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt mean?
• Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Inflation to jump in early 2018
• South Africa Mining production
• Five key questions on the Saudi Aramco privatisation
• FX Reserves (Nov.)
• How worrying is the recent slide in the MSCI China Index?
• A guide to elections in 2018
• Will corporate tax hikes dent Korea’s competitiveness?
• South Africa: A guide to the ANC national conference
• US tax cuts bolster calls for China to follow suit
• RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening
• What to expect in 2018
• Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift
• Russia CPI (Nov.)
• Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.)
• More to Brazil FDI flows than meets the eye
• Rapid Czech wage growth to prompt more rate hikes
• EM manufacturing growth on the rise in Q4
• GDP (Q3 2017) & Labour Force Survey (Nov.)
• OPEC extends deal, Gulf signals comfort with $60pb oil
• Brazil GDP (Q3)
• Who will follow the Bank of Korea?
• Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI
• Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• OPEC extends output cuts by another nine months
• Crackdown on online lending spooks markets
• Region holds its breath
• What would the fallout be from another slump in IT shares?
• S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light
• An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom
• Asian currencies make further gains against the dollar
• Chile’s equities collapse, but other assets resilient
• Qatar faces slow recovery from blockade hit
• Elections to shape challenges facing Diaz de León
• EM GDP growth ends Q3 on a high
• Bad news in Nigeria and South Africa
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
• Will rising US bond yields ride to the dollar’s rescue?
• German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.)
• Easing cycles still have a bit further to run
• Lending to commercial property (Oct.)
• Debunking three myths about EM credit
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• Some reasons for optimism on UK banks’ shares
• Sentiment towards metals diverges
• Low EM credit spreads may last a while longer
• Bank of Korea set to hike rates despite worries over won
• Would a faltering US stock market spark contagion?
• We find the dollar’s recent slide mystifying
• Saudi downturn probably gathered pace in Q3
• Will the Bank of Japan soon start to tighten?
• Political turmoil rocks frontiers
• Industrials on the march
• Would a setback for the US stock market be contagious?
• Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy
• Faster profit growth won’t spur investment
• South Africa: downgrade largely priced in
• Strong growth in CEE starts to raise eyebrows
• Growth rebounds, but inflation remains weak
• Growth slows
• Gulf dollar pegs well placed to weather geopolitical risks
• Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.)
• SARB takes further easing off the table
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.)
• GDP targets here to stay
• Growth to accelerate further in 2018
• More to EM rebound than trade
• Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation
• South Africa CPI (Oct.)
• Peru GDP (Q3)
• Hungary’s National Bank missing the bigger picture
• Turkish central bank struggles to curtail lira’s slide
• Growth rebounds, central banks turn more hawkish
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Is Tunisia repeating Egypt’s currency mistakes?
• EM inflation on the turn
• Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3)
• Five key points on Chile’s elections
• Markets shrug off ratings upgrade
• Nigeria GDP (Q3 2017)
• Brazil’s current account improvement unlikely to last
• We expect the rally in the dollar to resume before long
• Consumer Price Index (Oct.)
• A closer look at Lebanon’s FX debt burden
• Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet
• Recovery in Thailand unlikely to lead to policy tightening
• Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer
• Moody’s highlights positives, overlooks concerns
• Tax reform: what happens next?
• Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs
• Colombia GDP (Q3)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Turn in the cycle
• How important is Zimbabwe’s economy?
• South Africa’s recovery continued in Q3
• Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro?
• Commercial property investment (Oct.)
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
• Bahrain: peg to stay intact, but austerity to be stepped up
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2017)
• German GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.)
• Are the best days for risky assets really over?
• OPEC appears optimistic about oil market rebalancing
• Is the recent sell-off in the markets a sign of things to come?
• What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs?
• Russia GDP (Q3)
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Will Japan benefit from the TPP minus the US?
• Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits
• Will regional trade agreements boost growth?
• Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• Is the rise in US high-yield credit spreads a worrying sign?
• Recovery in business investment still has further to run
• Industrial Production (Sep.)
• China increasing foreign access but still stacking deck
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)
• French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Africa’s business environment: A look behind the numbers
• Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru
• Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’
• Saudi sabre-rattling hits markets
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Four charts on the latest oil price move
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.)
• South Africa: Output data held up in Q3
• How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look?
• Philippines likely to keep rates on hold throughout 2018
• Czech CPI (Oct.)
• Malaysia’s central bank turns hawkish
• Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn
• Five key questions on developments in Saudi Arabia
• Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat
• Argentine central bank has more work to do
• How free is Japan’s trade?
• Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft
• Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run
• Russia CPI (Oct.)
• Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount
• FX Reserves (Oct.)
• Halifax House Prices (Oct.)
• High core inflation unlikely to trigger tightening
• Romania’s external vulnerabilities building
• Venezuela could be in default by end of the week
• What to make of the Saudi anti-corruption drive
• Inflation to rise further
• Still too soon to sound the alarm
• Huge challenges to Venezuela’s debt restructuring
• What to expect from Trump’s Asia trip
• Brazil’s BNDES reform slips under the radar
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• The Egyptian pound: one year on from the float
• Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year
• EM manufacturing growth eases in October
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift
• Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Raising our Korea growth and interest rate forecasts
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI
• Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
• US natural gas set to burn brighter in 2018
• Bank recapitalisation a rare success in faltering reforms
• Oil hits $60pb but Gulf markets continue to struggle
• Pollution crackdown set to drag on growth
• Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.)
• South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt markets
• Asian equities bounce back
• Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data?
• Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced)
• Kenya: A look at the balance sheet
• Rise in government bond yields unlikely to last
• Pushing down our BRL forecasts
• EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August
• Further downside for the Turkish lira
• What does oil at $60pb mean for the Gulf?
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.)
• “Global QE” to slow only gradually
• Home ownership rate could tumble
• Strong US GDP growth bolsters case for Fed tightening
• Fed to raise rates faster in 2018, no matter who’s Chair
• GDP (Q3 1st Estimate)
• Policy normalisation underway
• ECB’s reduction in QE to have limited market impact
• Payrolls set to come storming back from hurricanes
• China and India gold imports (Sep.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Bank of Canada on hold for rest of this year
• Can the ECB pull off a dovish taper?
• FOMC meeting could clash with Chair announcement
• Durable Goods (Sep.)
• Rise in coal imports likely to be temporary
• Canadian dollar likely to drop further next year
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)
• World trade strengthens while NAFTA talks sour
• Flash PMIs (Oct.)
• Will the US yield curve continue to flatten?
• EM assets likely to weather the withdrawal of QE
• Neom: is Saudi Arabia about to repeat past mistakes?
• Are investors right to be taking events in Catalonia in their stride?
• Global Steel Production (Sep.)
• Over to you, President Macri
• Growth peaking
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep. & Q3)
• Stage set for a pick-up in wage and investment growth
• Will EM sovereign bonds continue to outperform Treasuries?
• LNG rally may run out of steam
• Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target
• Oil market showing more signs of tightening
• Growth set to slow, interest rates to remain low
• Three quick points on the IMF’s latest projections
• Pullback in EM currencies probably not a sign of things to come
• India’s gold demand to remain soft
• Lack of affordable homes for sale hits first-time buyers
• Is a boost from tax reform already discounted in the S&P 500?
• Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market?
• Does the rally in alumina prices have legs?
• What are auto sales telling us about metals demand?
• Tougher mortgage rules will only make matters worse
• Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• What to watch for in upcoming elections
• Policy outlook should limit sterling’s slide
• International Trade (Aug.)
• International Merchandise Trade (Aug.)
• Motoring along
• ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep.)
• Record low inventory constrains sales and lifts prices
• Are investors right to be very bearish on Treasuries this time?
• Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
• Prime-age participation has further to rise
• Valuations of EM equities don’t look stretched
• Healthy economic growth is buoying global equities
• CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)
• Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
• Rally in oil starting to burn out
• Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
• ISM Manufacturing (Sep.)
• Government should tread carefully on tax policy
• Are markets right to shrug off political events in Catalonia?
• Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth
• No clear signal from China’s PMIs
• Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.)
• Global QE to remain positive for a while yet
• Pull-back in EM equities and currencies unlikely to last
• Aerospace dispute raises spectre of trade war
• Monetary policy outlook shouldn’t weigh too heavily on the euro
• Platinum-to-palladium spread turns negative, for now
• Are concerns about labour shortages justified?
• Improving outlook for secondary assets in Netherlands
• GDP by Industry (Jul.)
• Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation
• Would Macron’s plan for fiscal union work?
• Is the surge in oil prices sustainable?
• Lending to commercial property (Aug.)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.)
• Mortgage Lending/Nationwide House Prices (Aug/Sep)
• Swiss KOF (Sep.) & Danish GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence
• Latest pull-back in EM equities should prove temporary
• Oil demand rises as global economy strengthens
• Hurricanes will batter payroll figures
• Fed normalisation not a game changer
• Trump’s tax plan could be bad news for Treasuries
• Durable Goods (Aug.)
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
• Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.)
• Recent falls in EM currencies unlikely to be the start of a trend
• What to make of the recent jump in oil prices
• China and India gold imports (Aug.)
• World trade faring well in H2
• Household debt to weigh on economic growth
• Markets weather German election, but political risk lingers
• Turkish equities tumble amid Kurdish referendum fears
• Household indebtedness highest among G7
• Economic strength should continue to support the euro
• Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.)
• Consumer Price Index (Aug.)
• What can the Baltic Dry Index tell us?
• Global Steel Production (Aug.)
• Will risky assets continue to shrug off the Fed?
• Lower interest rates underpin higher asset valuations
• Lower longer-run interest rates underpin higher asset valuations
• Fed undeterred by weak core inflation
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Existing Home Sales (Aug.)
• How will Treasury yields react to the Fed?
• Global Aluminium Production
• China Metal Output Monitor
• Will new Chinese crude contracts be a game-changer?
• Should we expect the rise in coal prices to continue?
• Another reason to worry about risky asset valuations?
• Housing Starts (Aug.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects
• Core inflation showing signs of resurgence
• Stock data at odds with prices
• As good as it gets for US equities?
• Profit-taking evident in metals
• Some new market forecasts
• How vulnerable are EM corporate bonds?
• At least income inequality isn’t getting worse
• How much further will Gilt yields rise?
• Rebound in median income a welcome improvement
• Retail Sales & IP (Aug.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Sep.)
• How far will the global tightening cycle go?
• Home valuations are not at dangerous levels
• Will the MPC walk the walk in November?
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.)
• How vulnerable is the FTSE 100 to tighter UK monetary policy?
• Canadian dollar likely to tumble next year
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Kuwait: strong balance sheet, but weak growth
• Investor buying boosts metals prices
• Markets bracing for another interest rate hike
• Higher inflation remains elusive
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• More bad news for grains & soybeans prices
• What next for currencies, bonds and equities?
• Some revisions to our key market forecasts
• Fed now likely to stand pat until next year
• OPEC open to extending output deal
• Employment (Jul.)
• Hurricanes and housing market activity
• NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last
• Lower OPEC production likely to be temporary
• What’s behind the surge in the MSCI China Index?
• Commercial property investment (Aug.)
• UK House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics (Q2)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Capital values still climbing this year and next
• ECB draws nearer to turning off the stimulus tap
• What next for the ailing US dollar?
• What’s going on with West End office rents?
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• How much Fed tightening is really priced into markets?
• Labour Force Survey (Aug.)
• Will Harvey lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies?
• Stopgap debt ceiling deal makes the Fed’s job harder
• Investors’ support for palladium to fade
• China’s ore imports continue to rise
• What do the hurricanes mean for commodities?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Draghi gives the euro another boost
• Halifax House Prices (Aug.)
• Bank of Canada taking a big gamble on rate hikes
• Harvey & Irma potential costs begin to mount
• World economy resilient despite geopolitical tensions
• How long will EM credit spreads remain so low?
• Hurricane Harvey to depress US oil demand
• Pessimism about sterling’s prospects overdone
• Will Draghi talk the euro down?
• Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug.)
• International Merchandise Trade (Jul.)
• Mortgage Applications (Aug.)
• Is Italy no longer a risk?
• Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.)
• Drop in mortgage rates fails to boost activity
• Chinese growth pushes up energy commodities
• Will the end of summer breathe new life into the markets?
• Still cautious on copper …
• CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
• Swiss GDP (Q2) & Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Six key questions and answers about North Korea
• Metals on a tear, for now
• North Korea crisis to have limited impact on safe havens
• Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test
• Signs of a floor for mortgage approvals and sales
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.)
• Nigeria & South Africa: Key economies bounced back in Q2
• Can Trump hit the 3% growth target after all?
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• GDP growth bound to slow after blazing pace in H1
• ISM Manufacturing (Aug.)
• Treasury yields likely to rise despite underwhelming payrolls
• China data support metals rally
• Employment Report (Aug.)
• Increasing focus on high streets boosts prime rents in Lisbon
• Trump and China boost metals prices
• China’s PMIs point to strong industrial output in August
• How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary policy?
• Gold to benefit from high geopolitical risks
• The renminbi’s rally has much further to run
• GDP (Q2 2017)
• Household finances quite strong, despite low savings rates
• Subdued new home sales are not holding back starts
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)
• Tightness in tin to persist
• Fed to begin reversing QE and ECB to set out taper plans
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Don’t rule out an interest rate hike next week
• Japanese yen still likely to weaken
• Lending to commercial property (Jul.)
• Mortgage Lending (Jul.)
• Hurricane Harvey will have little impact on national economy
• Brent-WTI spread likely to narrow
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
• ECB may try to temper euro’s rise before long
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.)
• Capital value growth out of the red
• Nationwide House Prices (Aug.)
• Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump
• Metals on a roll
• Yellen soothes markets, but could ruffle Trump
• London Housing Chart Book: London’s stagnation set to continue
• Household debt not a concern
• Durable Goods (Jul.)
• Brazil privatisation plans give stocks an extra boost
• Households still living the high life
• Trade momentum still strong, despite Trump
• Exports to continue supporting regional growth
• Angola: New president, same problems
• Softer demand isn’t a disaster for German office rents
• Worsening affordability not to blame for subdued home sales
• Existing Home Sales (Jul.)
• We don’t think that the rally in US Treasuries will last
• Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy?
• Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects
• China and India gold imports (Jul.)
• UK Finance Mortgage Lending & Housebuilding (Jul./Q2)
• How big a threat to EM assets is the scaling back of QE?
• Investors exaggerate move in metals prices
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• New Home Sales (Jul.)
• What should we read into the poor performance of US small-caps?
• Flash PMIs (Aug.)
• Consumer confidence still resilient
• No shortage of tin now!
• Growing supply will limit any gains in oil prices this year
• Should EM investors fear the scaling back of QE?
• New industrial supply will keep prime rents in Czech
• Dollar’s decline to boost exports
• What are the implications of geopolitical risk for commodities?
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.)
• We forecast a rebound in the German DAX
• Germany’s stock market unlikely to keep on falling
• North Korea sanctions should not have much market impact
• Is it Amazon’s fault that the Fed can’t hit its inflation target?
• Speculators give a boost to industrial metals prices
• Canada will be up against it in NAFTA talks
• Industrial sector drops into overvalued territory
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
• Respite for S&P 500 unlikely to be a lull in a storm
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Drop in multifamily starts will support rental growth
• Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
• What is the Taylor Rule telling us?
• Fed, not China’s demand, to remain key driver of Treasuries
• Brent backwardation should help to reduce oil stocks
• Credit conditions set to remain supportive
• Renewed Chinese buying unlikely to keep Treasury yields down
• Withdrawals to support a tighter Madrid office market
• Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Are house prices in prime central London outperforming?
• Next recession only a few years away
• Commodities weather the storm
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Toronto housing market down and out
• Will globally-focused US firms’ shares continue to outperform?
• Housing Starts (Jul.)
• Do valuations point to a re-run of 2007?
• Recent rise unlikely to mark the start of a surge in spreads
• Employment (Jun.)
• Investors still hungry for EM dollar bonds
• Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Iron ore’s last hurrah?
• UK House Price Index (Jun.) and UK Finance Lending Trends (Q2)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Finnish GDP (Q2)
• German GDP (Q2)
• What should we make of the rebound in US credit spreads?
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.)
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Commercial property investment (Jul.)
• Slower rental growth and yield shift in Q2
• Capital value growth hit by limited yield falls
• When will core inflation pick up?
• Rising geopolitical tension takes its toll on prices
• Will low inflation continue to support US bonds and equities?
• Supply shortage doesn’t explain high housing valuations
• What does the North Korean crisis mean for gold prices?
• Productivity growth likely to remain muted
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Markets appear surprised by bearish WASDE data
• Will North Korea tensions continue to weigh on US equities?
• Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back
• Will the surge in EM Asian equities soon be over?
• Zinc rally to fade towards year-end
• Rising OPEC production puts market rebalancing at risk
• Have capital values peaked or plateaued?
• South Africa: Output data point to Q2 recovery
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)
• Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Vienna retail rents could fall further in real terms
• How big a deal is US-North Korea sabre-rattling for markets?
• Are similarities with 2007 a cause for concern?
• Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb?
• NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment
• Is another crisis coming, a decade after the last one began?
• Homeowner vacancy rate falls to 17-year low
• Slowdown shows no signs of easing
• Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports
• Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Will low inflation keep US Treasury yields anchored?
• Halifax House Prices (Jul.)
• Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown
• Dollar unlikely to recoup a lot more lost ground
• Labour Force Survey (Jul.)
• Should we be worrying about consumers?
• Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.)
• How strong is demand for coal, really?
• Steady first half cloaks the positive truth for Paris offices
• Strong growth continues at start of Q3…
• Are high asset valuations here to stay?
• Q2 & H1 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends
• Is remortgaging set to surge?
• Rational exuberance
• Oil prices lead the way up
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Metals start Q3 on a strong note
• Outlook for UK monetary policy points to higher Gilt yields
• Investors focus on prime property in Italy
• Mortgage Applications (Jul.)
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
• ISM Manufacturing (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.)
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.)
• Can the euro hold on to its gains?
• A weaker US dollar boosts commodities
• CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
• China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture
• Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Preliminary Flash)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
• Nationwide House Prices (Jul.)
• Swedish & Norwegian Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)
• When will the rout in the dollar end?
• Swedish political scandal lowers chance of tax hikes
• What can inventory tell us about state-level house prices?
• Mortgage Lending (Jun.)
• Lending to commercial property (Jun.)
• Is the corporate bond market being stifled?
• Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy
• Fed in wait-and-see mode until December
• Oil and copper lead the way
• Technology sector sell-off little cause for alarm
• GDP (Q2 1st Estimate)
• GDP by Industry (May)
• What if the euro keeps on rising?
• Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months
• German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jul.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.)
• Swedish GDP (Q2) & Swiss KOF (Jul.)
• Logicor sale distorts strength of Q2 European investment
• Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2)
• Stocks of most metals edge lower
• Policy outlook bodes well for EM local currency bonds
• Strong payrolls will keep unemployment rate on downward trend
• Durable Goods (Jun.)
• Strong export demand to support US natural gas prices
• Mixed performances for Nordic and Swiss currencies
• RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2)
• China and India’s gold imports (Jun.)
• Lower global inflation will not prevent policy “normalisation”
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)
• Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• New Home Sales (Jun.)
• Will the Fed give the dollar a lift?
• UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jun.)
• Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2)
• World trade rebound in May bodes well for Q2
• Brussels prime office rental prospects looking brighter
• China’s metals imports point to strong demand so far in 2017
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
• What next for EM equities and sovereign bonds?
• Department store yield gap unlikely to fall further
• Case-Shiller House Prices (May)
• Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now
• Second half of the year bodes well for coffee
• Will US corporate credit spreads stay low?
• All good, for now
• Existing Home Sales (Jun.)
• Flash PMIs (Jul.)
• Healthy global growth to continue supporting equities for now
• Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end
• What accounts for the euro’s latest surge?
• The weaker dollar bolsters commodities
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Weakness in core inflation will persist until next year
• Can the East Midlands continue to outperform?
• Will EM equities’ rapid ascent continue?
• Secondary Copenhagen offices offer improving return prospects
• Office leasing picks up
• Bank Indonesia to remain in neutral for a while
• Will the ECB baulk at euro’s continued rise?
• Is the Fed nearly done raising interest rates?
• RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2)
• Four key risks facing the oil market
• Non-residents buy more homes despite strong dollar
• Global Steel Production (Jun.)
• What does the health care debacle mean for tax reform?
• Global Aluminium Production (Jun.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Vancouver housing remains in the doldrums
• Are bond “bubbles” bursting?
• Tweaking our forecasts for the Fed, Treasuries and the dollar
• Housing Starts (Jun.)
• Manufacturing Sales (May)
• Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December
• Strong growth, weak inflation
• Will EM equity markets continue to soar?
• Government intervention in the coal market could backfire
• What is behind rising German industrial take-up?
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jun.)
• UK House Price Index (May.)
• Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased
• Calm in EM equity markets doesn’t mean a storm must follow
• Peru Economic Activity (May)
• What can past tightening cycles tell us about Fed policy?
• Will euro-zone peripheral bonds shrug off ECB tapering?
• All good, for now …
• Cautious appraisals holding down house price growth
• What next for euro-zone sovereign credit spreads?
• Are opportunistic investors calling time on the cycle?
• Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.)
• One more interest rate hike at most this year
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Cheers for silver on hold
• Interest rates to fall further than most expect in Chile & Peru
• Will others follow the Bank of Canada?
• Yen’s rebound is likely to be short-lived
• Housing market outlook is subdued
• Is industrial rental growth due an upgrade?
• South Africa’s Mine Production (May)
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2)
• Persistent strength in China’s commodity imports
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Athens property still not without headwinds
• Bank of Canada gambles on rate hike
• Drop in housing starts not helping low inventory
• What next for the loonie?
• It is hard to be positive on nickel
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.)
• OPEC output surges again
• Commercial property investment (Jun.)
• Employment (May)
• Is Germany’s surplus a global problem?
• Are US equities actually undervalued?
• Balance sheet policy unlikely to seal Treasuries’ fate
• What is the Fed “model” telling us twenty years on?
• How stretched is the valuation of emerging market equities?
• Still waiting for stronger wage pressures
• The focus will be on US policy
• Is there actually a bubble in government bonds?
• Labour Force Survey (Jun.)
• Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target
• Employment Report (June)
• Distressed sales are still distorting house prices
• Halifax House Prices (Jun.)
• Investors moving up the risk curve in Sweden
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• How tight is the cobalt market really?
• When and how fast will the MPC tighten?
• What do advances in vehicle technology mean for oil demand?
• G20 summit unlikely to move the markets
• Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.)
• International Merchandise Trade (May)
• Mortgage Applications (Jun.)
• CoreLogic House Prices (May)
• Is the manufacturing sector heading for another downturn?
• EM local currency bonds should remain resilient 
• Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy
• Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.)
• Swedish Industrial & Services Production (May) & Serv. PMI (Jun.)
• Have oil prices bottomed out?
• Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation?
• Should we worry about low EM credit spreads?
• Will EM equities continue to set the pace?
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (June)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.)
• No sign of anxiety about the economy in the credit market
• Some strength at end-Q2
• How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM output?
• Bank can’t ignore low inflation
• Equities, renminbi rise on state intervention
• Politics rocks the Gulf
• National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jun.)
• German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (May)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)
• Is monetary policy bound to support the ailing US dollar?
• Will the euro continue to climb?
• Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem?
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
• Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.)
• Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns
• German Ifo Survey (Jun.)
• World trade still doing well in Q2
• Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual
• 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong
• Brexit Watch: One year on
• Europe enters Brexit talks on a strong footing
• Is the rift between MPC members growing?
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.)
• Signs of normalisation in the investment market
• Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.)
• Will Portugal continue to outperform Italy?
• Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes
• Public Finances (May)
• Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Jun)
• Little scope for German spending boost from lower savings
• Global Aluminium Production (May)
• Swedish & Finnish Labour Force Surveys (May)
• Markets unperturbed by political and interest rate risks
• Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy
• Decent Q1 for most and surveys bode well for Q2
• Is the US stock market bound to hit the skids?
• Brexit Watch: Government makes a few Brexit concessions
• The losing streak continues
• Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support
• MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet
• Russia: CBR governor strikes cautious note
• Greek crisis averted for another year
• Is austerity over?
• What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone?
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
• Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland
• Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Apr.) & Employment (Q1)
• Labour Market (Apr.)
• Activity & Spending (May)
• Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.)
• What do political developments mean for Italy’s economy?
• Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy
• Will political uncertainty weigh on the economy?
• Political uncertainty clouds the outlook for policy
• Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.)
• French Industrial Production & German Trade (Apr.)
• What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.)
• Brexit Watch: “Softer” Brexit now more likely, but risks remain
• Hung Parliament: what happens now?
• Norwegian Consumer Prices (May)
• SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise
• Icelandic rates to remain on hold for now
• ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect
• A guide to election night
• Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q1)
• German Industrial Production & French Trade (Apr.)
• Spanish banks unlikely to hold back recovery
• Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports
• Mortgage Applications (May.)
• The outlook for Nordic and Swiss equities
• Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Apr.)
• Precious metals outperform
• Low savings rate limits prospects for Spanish spending
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
• Parliamentary majority will aid Macron’s reform efforts
• Markets bank on comfortable Conservative win
• How stretched are the valuations of EM equities?
• Is the US leaving the Paris Agreement significant?
• ECB to tweak its forward guidance
• Election 2017 Preview
• What’s behind the turnaround in Finland?
• Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• Italian GDP Breakdown (Q1)
• Swiss & Finnish GDP (Q1)
• Asian equities continue strong run
• Currencies rise against dollar while bond yields decline
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
• Danish GDP (Q1)
• German & Spanish Flash CPI (May)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (May)
• Swedish GDP (Q1), Retail Sales (Apr) & Swiss KOF (May)
• PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash
• Will growth rebound?
• Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data?
• OPEC deal should allow Gulf to ease austerity further
• Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength
• Is the recovery in construction built on strong foundations?
• Rents and capital values see modest rise
• Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further
• GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1)
• Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again
• Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q1)
• Will the ECB tighten prematurely again?
• Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (May)
• Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
• Public Finances (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (May)
• Swedish Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
• Portugal out of the EDP, but not out of the woods
• Brexit Watch: Manifestos expose subtle differences on Brexit
• Do voters have a real fiscal choice this time?
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
• Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution
• Macron’s cross-party cabinet confirms focus on reform
• Spending growth holding up despite real pay squeeze
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Will the euro-zone’s revival be sustained?
• Early elections in Austria revive eurosceptic threat
• When will the FTSE’s Brexit rally end?
• How much slack is there in the euro-zone labour market?
• Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet
• Labour Market (Mar.)
• Is the euro-zone about to boost the global economy?
• Labour would ease the fiscal squeeze significantly
• Change in Riksbank target unlikely to shift policy yet
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar.) & German ZEW (May)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• Italian GDP (Q1) & Dutch GDP (Q1)
• Norwegian GDP (Q1) & Finnish GDP (Q1)
• Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure
• Are risky asset prices set to tumble?
• Is the housing market heading for a major downturn?
• Back to business for the ECB?
• Riksbank loosens while Norges Bank stands pat
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.)
• German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.)
• South Africa: Industrial sectors held up in Q1
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.)
• Icelandic rate cut on the cards
• Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack
• What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK?
• Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year
• Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Will consumers remain confident enough to keep on spending?
• What does Moon’s victory mean for South Korea?
• Will Italy be the next domino not to fall?
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.)
• German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.)
• World economy can cope with slowdown in China
• Gulf economies better placed to deal with low oil prices
• Macron victory provides relief but challenges remain
• Brexit Watch: Public spat shows compromise won’t be easy
• Housing boom turning to bust
• Will Macron galvanise the French economy?
• 1992 or 2008? Updated
• Q1 slowdown to keep MPC hawks at bay
• Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Mar.)
• A rising tide lifts all boats
• Macron’s labour reforms now look more achievable
• Q1 slowdown should prove temporary
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.)
• Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) & H’hold Borrowing (Mar.)
• Norges Bank stands pat, but a rate cut not far off
• Nordic & Swiss currencies to rebound from April’s falls
• Investment rises, but concerns about pricing grow
• Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel
• Has Marine Le Pen gone soft on “Frexit”?
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prel. Flash) & PPI (Mar.)
• Should we be worried about the GDP slowdown?
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)
• Focus turns to debt relief measures for Greece
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.), Final Man. PMI (Apr.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
• Norges Bank to continue signalling possible rate cut
• Vienna office capital values close to peaking
• ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June
• German & Spanish CPI (Apr.)
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.)
• Riksbank dissenters fail to prevent QE extension
• Macron can’t rely on National Assembly support for reforms
• Strength in nominal spending offers some comfort
• Household sector still boosting economy
• Renminbi may be approaching a turning point
• Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Apr.)
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.)
• China’s metals imports likely to remain subdued
• Will retailers and restaurants drag the economy under?
• China and India’s gold imports (Mar.)
• Public Finances (Mar.)
• Saudi benefit cut U-turn not a major cause for alarm
• Global Steel Production (Mar.)
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2)
• German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
• Macron-Le Pen run-off raises hopes for French revival
• Brexit Watch: Markets give snap election the thumbs up
• Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge
• Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
• Key questions about the French election
• Will Mr Hammond now “reset” fiscal policy?
• Spending slowdown underway
• Is the pound set for a pre-Brexit rally?
• Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Still no hints of policy tightening
• Household credit boom set to slow
• Riksbank to signal end of asset purchases
• Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference?
• Has Theresa May gone to the polls just in time?
• Outlook has brightened despite political risk
• Have inflation worries gone for good?
• Sterling welcomes May’s election call
• EM credit divergences should soon start to narrow
• Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) & Inflation (Final, Mar.)
• Snap election won’t derail the economy
• Labour Market (Feb.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Surveys point to diminishing labour market slack
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• A rising tide
• Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & German ZEW (Apr.)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
• Into the unknown
• Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Brexit Watch: May softens stance on immigration
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.)
• How much did growth slow in Q1?
• What does the US strike on Syria mean for commodities?
• ECB tightening is still a distant prospect
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.)
• German & French Industrial Production (Feb.)
• North Korea to distract from trade at Trump-Xi Summit
• Growth slower but still solid in Q1
• Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy?
• Are investors right to look past Spanish property?
• Economy going strong, but core inflation weak
• Economy’s resilience points to earlier rise in interest rates
• Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Mar.)
• Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Feb.)
• US Treasury yields and the dollar likely to peak next year
• CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.)
• EM manufacturing ends Q1 on a strong note
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Unemployment & PPI (Feb.), Final Man. PMI (Mar.)
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
• Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland
• Brexit Watch: Constructive tone to first exchanges
• Are consumers’ finances healthy as Brexit begins?
• Consumer spending relying on less saving
• Euro-zone growth to beat consensus this year
• National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.)
• Ger. & Spa. Retail Sales, French Cons. Spending (Feb.)
• Helsinki valuations still stack up despite yield falls
• German, Spanish & Belgian Flash CPI (Mar.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.)
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.)
• Key questions following the triggering of Article 50
• Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery?
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.)
• Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Mar.)
• Out of the woods?
• The MPC’s sterling conundrum
• Swedish Retail Sales, Trade and PPI (Feb.)
• Can the ECB break its forward guidance?
• German Ifo Survey (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)
• Can the Treasury-gilt gap widen further?
• Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year
• Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2
• Key EM central banks set to loosen policy despite Fed hike
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• What is the state of play as election season kicks off?
• Is the MPC right to turn hawkish?
• Rate setters give markets pause for thought
• Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing
• MPC strikes a more hawkish tone
• Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years
• SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue
• Dutch ado about nothing?
• Peru Economic Activity (Jan.)
• Premier Li signals lower emphasis on growth
• Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe?
• Labour Market (Jan.)
• Icelandic interest rates still set to be cut later this year
• Will Article 50 trigger Brexit pain?
• What to make of the renewed bid for Scottish Independence
• OPEC production falls as compliance improves
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Jan.)
• Are things finally looking up for Portugal?
• Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jan.) & German ZEW (Mar.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls
• Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost
• Turkey Current Account (Jan.)
• Brexit Watch: Article 50 notification set for end of the month
• Labour Force Survey (Feb.)
• Did the Chancellor ease back on the fiscal squeeze?
• Soaring copper stocks reflect waning investor optimism
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Will the ECB change course if growth stays strong?
• PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening
• Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.)
• Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies
• Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Spring Budget does little to change consumer outlook
• Inflation rise won’t stop SNB fighting strong franc
• ECB committed to loose policy despite healthy growth
• Softer data to keep the hawks at bay
• Should we believe the upbeat French business surveys?
• Icelandic rates to be cut soon despite strong economy
• Spring Budget 2017: OBR ties Hammond’s hands
• Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions
• Chancellor offers little further help on business rates
• German & Spanish Industrial Production, French Trade (Jan.)
• Swiss Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• UK Budget Checklist
• Pound’s latest drop not a sign of Brexit panic
• Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports
• Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q4)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.)
• Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.)
• Recent fall in gilt yields could prove short lived
• Greece GDP (Q4)
• S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last
• Taking stock of the latest business surveys
• Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation?
• EM manufacturing still going strong
• Peru: 2016 likely to be as good as it gets for the economy
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)
• Fed & EMs: Nothing to see here…
• Are high valuations the harbinger of a collapse in asset prices?
• Lending to commercial property (Jan.)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)
• Deeper capacity cuts needed to avert protracted slowdown
• Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.)
• Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside?
• The relief rally in US Treasuries is unlikely to last much longer
• Stocks rise, currencies and bond yields steady
• New (non-consensus) forecasts for Brazil
• January’s inflation jump unlikely to last
• GDP (Q4)
• Steady stream of Gulf dollar bond sales continues
• Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)
• Capital values up for fourth month
• Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US…
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• What next for Russia’s economy?
• Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet
• EM growth hits three-year high, but may be about to peak
• Tunisia’s economy set for a slow recovery in 2017-18
• Brazilian interest rates to continue falling sharply
• Colombia GDP (Q4)
• New trade balance calculation would make little sense
• A strong start to the year
• South Africa’s fiscal squeeze continues
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.)
• Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
• Russia Activity Data (Jan.)
• Core inflation rises to highest rate since 2014
• Flash PMIs (Feb.)
• PMIs suggest near-term outlook for equities remains favourable
• What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us?
• Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017
• Is QE about to go into reverse?
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Africa: New data spring nasty surprises in Angola & Ghana
• Sterling not shaken by Article 50 vote
• Will US equities shrug off a renewed rise in Treasury yields?
• Gulf’s non-oil sectors show signs of recovery
• Bond yields jump after RBI surprises markets
• Have Paris retail rents reached a plateau?
• Commodities consolidate
• Property yield gaps squeezed by rising bond yields
• Euro’s resilience may not last much longer
• Move-up buyers inflating housing bubble
• Business sentiment surges in aftermath of Trump win
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.)
• London’s employment prospects healthy
• Faster nominal GDP growth helping to bring down debt ratios
• Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake?
• One year on from the oil slump
• Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike
• Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained
• Stocks continue to build in China
• Will equity markets continue welcoming a more hawkish Fed?
• Housing Starts (Jan.)
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
• Does the rally in the ruble have further to run?
• Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change this year
• President Trump has little power over currency markets
• Angola: New GDP figures raise fresh debt worries
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Consumers unruffled by fluctuations in wider economy
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)
• What next for UK gilt yields?
• Manufacturing Sales (Dec.)
• Consumer Prices, Retail Sales & Ind. Prod’n (Jan.)
• Rise in Dublin industrial rents not finished yet
• South Africa: Economy stagnated in Q4
• Why are we so negative on the outlook for iron ore prices?
• Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities?
• Chile pauses easing cycle, but more rate cuts to come
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally?
• Investors still in love with commodities
• Yellen again stresses fiscal uncertainty
• Fed likely to raise rates more than expected, but not before June
• Shrinking spare capacity no reason for complacency
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
• Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016)
• Saudi: OPEC deal a short-term gain, but unlikely to be renewed
• Nigeria over the worst, but recovery will be slow
• Poland CPI (Jan.)
• Brazil: promising noises on trade, but structural hurdles persist
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Strong start to the year for big EM exporters
• China’s worries over Trump fade
• Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes
• French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Czech CPI (Jan.)
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Qatar’s credit boom comes to an end, lending growth to stay weak
• South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.)
• RBI is right to turn less dovish
• Philippines to keep rates on hold throughout 2017
• Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown
• South African consumer spending set to remain weak
• Algeria’s economy to slump in 2017
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• RBI brings loosening cycle to an end
• Romanian rates to rise further than many expect
• Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem
• Russia CPI (Jan.)
• Global growth picking up
• Mixed news for commodity markets
• Metals prices start the year on a strong note
• What use are the new “future output” PMIs?
• Fed likely to stand pat until June
• Will commodities continue to underpin EM equities?
• GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty
• Employment Report (Jan.)
• Are investors being complacent?
• China and India’s gold demand to remain subdued in 2017
• Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards
• Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip
• Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance
• Could housing be the weak link in 2017?
• Trump, China and the world in 2017
• Iran now in Trump’s sights
• Oil prices have a quiet start to 2017
• The real question for Mexico is: why have Nafta gains been so small?
• Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon
• How do Lat Am central banks set policy?
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI & RICS Construction (Jan/Q4)
• Stocks were on the move in January
• What will Fed tightening mean for EM dollar bonds?
• Steady labour market recovery continues
• Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
• Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule
• Mortgage Applications (Jan.)
• Russia GDP (2016)
• Paris offices rental growth to disappoint in 2017
• Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.)
• Nationwide House Prices (Jan.)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
• Markets eye up interest rate hike in 2018
• Big frontiers eye up more international bond sales
• Are markets right to be taking President Trump in their stride?
• Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.)
• Signs of life in Brazil and Russia
• Asian financial markets make good start to 2017
• Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs
• Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start
• Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls
• Is Turkey really now a high-investment economy?
• France GDP (Q4, 1st est.) & CPI (Jan., Prov.)
• Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon
• No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets
• Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.)
• Fuel to push up inflation in most, but not all, EMs
• Base effects hold down wage growth
• Investors give Egypt the thumbs up
• Egypt: will the government’s fiscal reforms be enough?
• Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016
• Sweden (Dec.) & Norway (Nov.) Labour Market Data
• BoJ poised to scale back bond purchases
• Mexico and the renegotiation of NAFTA: five key points
• Russia Activity Data (Dec.)
• EM central banks unfazed by strong dollar
• Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Growth surges to fastest in over three years
• Turkey’s tightening cycle has further to run
• How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to Asia?
• Focus turns to policy tightening
• MENA sovereigns line up dollar bond sales
• Signs of strength in labour market
• Few EMs at risk from a major drop in US FDI
• Has the Bank of Japan finished easing?
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Service sector ends 2016 on a strong note
• Venezuela’s 2016 meltdown among the worst on record
• How will the markets fare under Trump?
• What to watch for in Trump’s first 100 days
• Trumped up?
• How will markets deal with President Trump?
• Little reaction to Mozambique’s missed bond payment
• What will a Trump presidency mean for Asia?
• Near-term recovery for EM export growth, but threats ahead
• Czech koruna: when will cap be lifted and how far will CZK rise?
• Saudi economy picking up at end of 2016, but set to slow in 2017
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.)
• South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started
• Bank Indonesia to keep interest rates unchanged this year
• Key takeaways from the IMF’s Staff Report on Egypt
• Business investment set to recover
• Saudi balance of payments position to continue to improve
• South Africa: retail spending a bright spot, but economy weak
• Employment (Nov.)
• What to expect from Brazil’s economy in 2017
• We don’t expect the yen’s resurgence to last
• No float for the renminbi
• Vietnam complacent over credit risks
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.)
• Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1
• Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to firm
• Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar?
• Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up
• Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)
• Argentina: new economic team, same challenges
• South Africa: Manufacturing sector shows signs of life
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)
• Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects
• Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices
• Who’s afraid of a strong dollar?
• Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Egyptian inflation has further to rise
• As good as it gets
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Whither the real?
• The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates
• House price growth on the rise
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Government remains reluctant to spend
• Saudi growth to slow as weaker oil sector offsets non-oil recovery
• Extinguishing RBI’s liabilities unlikely to bring much benefit
• Mexico & US: the ties that bind
• Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect
• Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Elections in 2017 – what they mean for Asia
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)
• Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates
• The People’s Bank fights back
• Unpacking “political risk” in EMs
• Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.)
• Saudi austerity to resume in 2018, but won’t be as harsh as 2015-16
• US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies
• Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.)
• Turkey CPI (Dec.)
• Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017
• OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters
• Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017
• Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017
• Inflation to rise in 2017, but still room for EMs to keep rates low
• C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey
• Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future
• Rising oil prices support Russia market rally
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)
• EM exports set for modest recovery in 2017
• What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2017 budget
• A soft end to 2016
• Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.)
• Asian markets weather first US rate hike in a year
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Fed will have to step up the pace of tightening next year
• Housing market can withstand higher interest rates
• Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks
• Housing Starts (Nov.)
• Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017
• What to expect in 2017
• Peru holds interest rates, but hikes likely to resume in 2017
• Ghana: political success in an economy on the cusp of recovery
• Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes
• Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices
• Flash PMIs (Dec.)
• Ending the year with a whimper
• Bank of Japan to leave policy rates unchanged
• Peru Economic Activity (Oct.)
• Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint
• Sri Lanka GDP (Q3)
• Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year
• Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised
• Bond rout may have gone too far
• Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy
• End of sanctions would give small but short-lived boost to Russia
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs
• Will US equities fare better under Trump than Reagan?
• Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice?
• Is the US stock market heading for a re-run of the early 1980s?
• Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.)
• On course for weakest growth since the global financial crisis
• Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect
• The tide for the yen has turned
• Machinery Orders (Oct.)
• Brexit Watch: Supreme Court won’t delay Article 50
• Fed policy still a risk for EMs
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.)
• Focus on the Fed statement and Trump’s reaction
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.)
• Service sector growth to slow next year
• No end in sight for ECB monetary support
• What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline?
• How long will the consumer spending spree last?
• Industrial Production (Oct.)
• From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Trade (Oct.)
• Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening
• Norges Bank to hint at 2017 rate cut
• Limited upside for platinum prices in 2017
• Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy?
• Signs point towards higher German industrial rents
• Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes
• French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.)
• S. Africa Current Account (Q3)
• Construction starts to slow
• What to expect from the upcoming Shunto?
• Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term
• What to expect in 2017
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
• What we know about fourth-quarter GDP
• Central Bank of Iceland to keep rates unchanged
• Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale
• Activity steady while price growth cools
• Policy divergence likely to drive the euro down further
• Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike?
• Economy’s resilience to keep MPC on hold
• Dovish Draghi signals prolonged ECB market presence
• A closer look at the rental vacancy rate
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• OPEC takes centre stage
• South Africa: Economy headed for a brutal end to the year
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.)
• China’s commodity imports bounce back
• Economy weathering political risks
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.)
• Trade (Nov.)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.)
• Australia International Trade (Oct.)
• GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
• Polish rates likely to stay on hold through 2017-18
• Bank of Canada taking a wait and see approach
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Trumponomics, Reaganomics and the US dollar
• How much will the dollar benefit from a shift in the policy mix?
• Decent economic growth but challenges lie ahead
• What does the referendum result mean for Italy’s banks?
• Growth to return in 2017
• Mortgage Applications (Nov.)
• Bucharest industrial rents have further to rise
• Saudi economy holds steady in Q3
• Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation
• Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Halifax House Prices (Nov.)
• German Industrial Production & French Trade (Oct.)
• FX reserves (Nov.)
• Tepid recovery as “Big Three” continue to struggle
• Four reasons why a recession remains unlikely
• Australia GDP (Q3)
• Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue
• Investor enthusiasm buoying the prices of industrials
• Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece
• Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based
• Will EM equities remain immune to Italian politics?
• Year ending on a positive note
• International Merchandise Trade (Oct.)
• CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)
• International Trade (Oct.)
• Inflation to remain in Goldilocks zone in 2017
• Russia CPI (Nov.)
• Korea’s president on the way out, but crisis to persist
• What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia
• Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q3)
• Swiss Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.)
• South Africa GDP (Q3)
• RBA looks through possible fall in Q3 GDP
• Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.)
• Ten key calls for EMs in 2017
• Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard
• Mortgage rates on the rise following Trump win
• Italian bond market unlikely to enjoy much respite
• Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4
• Monetary conditions to remain loose despite Trump win
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.)
• Robust supply to weigh on soybeans prices
• Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Nov.)
• Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia?
• Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Oct.)
• Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.)
• What now for Italy?
• Turkey CPI (Nov.)
• Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• CEE yields to fall faster and for longer
• OPEC seal the deal
• The other shoe just dropped
• US Employment Report doesn’t change the outlook for the Fed
• OPEC agreement not such a big deal for the world economy
• Brexit Watch: More evidence suggesting soft(ish) Brexit likely
• Largest yields falls now behind us, but still room to move lower
• Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth?
• Labour Force Survey (Nov.)
• Crunch time for Italy?
• Employment Report (Nov.)
• Palladium market to continue to tighten in 2017
• Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher?
• How gloomy should we be about investment?
• Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.)
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Nov.)
• Thailand’s populist shift is bad news for the economy
• Swiss GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate)
• Yen weakness to feed inflation rebound
• Brace yourself for GDP
• Dealing with demonetisation
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.)
• Capital values post first rise since May
• Further depreciation of the renminbi unlikely to rock EM markets
• External market drivers Trump domestic factors
• Markets focus on the Trump positives
• QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise
• Nationwide House Prices (Nov.)
• Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Italian GDP (Q3)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Nov.)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• PMIs (Nov.)
• Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3)
• Capital Expenditure (Q3)
• Home sales can withstand the coming rise in mortgage rates
• Russian markets outperform after Trump victory
• Are markets under-estimating political risks?
• UK financial system coping well with uncertainty
• Asian markets stabilise
• South Africa Trade Balance (Oct.)
• GDP (Q3)
• Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost
• Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease
• Brazil GDP (Q3)
• Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• What’s next for zinc prices?
• Small Business Confidence (Nov.)
• What next for the rupee?
• Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Talk of rate hikes is premature
• Strong dollar making life hard for the PBOC
• OPEC confirms Algiers deal, but real test still to come
• No interest rate cut until early next year
• Strong earnings push equity markets to ten-month high
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• London Housing Chart Book – London set to underperform
• Have the threats to commercial property been overstated?
• Are equities in commodity-exporting EMs ripe for a rally?
• Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Nov.)
• How will Trump’s victory affect global monetary policy?
• GDP (Q3 2016)
• Lat Am markets stabilise post Trump
• Stocks continue to dwindle
• Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand
• Will OPEC fall at the final hurdle?
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.)
• EM recovery grinds on
• German Flash CPI (Nov.)
• OPEC deal looks even more perilous
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Oct.)
• Mortgage Lending (Oct.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.)
• Lending to commercial property (Oct.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)
• Swedish GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate)
• Africa: Recovery yet to gain traction
• Exporters still stuck in low growth gear
• Pension reform to improve health of public finances
• Sri Lankan rates on hold, but hikes in the pipeline
• Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Oct.)
• Valuations still favour EM equities over US$ bonds
• Tide turning against Temer
• What next for Italian government bonds?
• Kenya: Policy loosening will proceed gradually
• Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited
• Will lower rates give the housing market another boost?
• Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus
• Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain
• IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
• South Africa: Downgrade, when it comes, will tell us little new
• Which euro-zone cities and sectors boast the strongest prospects?
• Further yen weakness and Nikkei gains ahead
• Can services alone deliver rapid growth?
• ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations
• Colombia GDP (Q3)
• Corporate profits still point to sluggish economy
• Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact
• Oil market in wait-and-see mode
• Chancellor “just about manages” to help consumers
• Is the OBR too gloomy about Brexit?
• Could repealing Dodd-Frank boost the wider economy?
• Yen on course for 120 against the dollar
• Trade in the doldrums even before Trump victory
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.)
• Weakness in China’s metals imports could prove temporary
• GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q3)
• Strong domestic demand helping to offset weak exports
• Could retail warehouse rents provide a positive surprise?
• BoJ set to taper its JGB purchases
• Is a major slowdown happening right under our noses?
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Growing oil demand quietly rebalancing the market
• What next for EM currencies?
• Did Mr Hammond squander a golden opportunity?
• How vulnerable is the US stock market to the strong dollar?
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• South Africa: Rates on hold, but rhetoric turns hawkish
• Taking stock of Trump’s victory
• Should investors be concerned by the rise in Italian bond yields?
• Housebuilding (Q3 2016)
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Oct.)
• China and India’s gold imports (Oct.)
• German Ifo Survey (Nov.)
• Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Nov.)
• New Zealand trumps Australia
• Anti-corruption drive has further to run
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised)
• New Home Sales (Oct.)
• Autumn Statement 2016: Creating room for manoeuvre
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points
• Further rise in US bond yields unlikely to blow equities off course
• Stuck in the slow lane
• Flash PMIs (Nov.)
• Wage growth has further to rise
• Durable Goods (Oct.)
• Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market?
• Euro’s decline does not take the onus off the ECB
• Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries?
• Political developments take centre stage
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.)
• Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• President Trump and the implications for the Middle East
• Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017
• No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts
• Has the storm passed?
• Existing Home Sales (Oct.)
• Trump’s fiscal stimulus won’t be a game-changer for US equities
• Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes
• UK Autumn Statement 2016 Checklist
• Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth
• Saudi Arabia unlikely to take strong action to boost oil prices
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation”
• Gilt yields won’t rise much further
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Nov.)
• Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year
• Public Finances (Oct.)
• Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.)
• EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off
• Growth accelerates above trend
• Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts
• Global Steel Production (Oct.)
• China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Sep./Oct.)
• Boost from infrastructure spending may prove a damp squib
• What if Italy votes “no”?
• Peru GDP (Q3)
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)
• Tighter financial conditions won’t stop the Fed
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Nigeria: Non-oil economy recovers a bit as oil woes continue
• Demonetisation sparks further bond market rally
• Thailand GDP (Q3)
• External trade (Oct.)
• How much support will Mr Hammond provide?
• Brexit Watch: Some more mixed news on the economy
• Commodities take stock
• Will markets continue to take Trump in their stride?
• China trade pact will not compensate for failure of TPP
• Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Will the bond sell-off push property yields higher?
• Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
• Russia Activity Data (Oct.)
• Assessing the risks around the French election
• Slower Spanish retail rental growth likely to prove temporary
• Latest data highlight varying inflation outlooks
• Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts
• Chile: Interest rates to stay on hold, despite weak Q3 GDP
• Stress tests to put pressure on buy-to-let LTVs
• Property market starting to cool
• Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future
• Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform?
• Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low
• Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely
• Assessing the early impact of demonetisation
• Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA
• Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems?
• Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely
• Consumers continue to shrug off Brexit worries
• Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming
• What next for US corporate bonds?
• OPEC likely to do just enough
• Yellen indicates Fed could raise rates “relatively soon”
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Housing Starts (Oct.)
• Trump victory proves divisive
• EM exports after the Golden Era
• Autumn Statement 2016 Preview
• Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Japan moves one step closer to helicopter money
• What weapons would China wield in a trade war?
• Philippines GDP (Q3)
• Australia Labour Market (Oct.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Too soon to give up on gold
• World trade in the Trump era
• Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets
• SNB will struggle to keep franc’s rise at bay
• Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Sep.)
• Gold down, but not out?
• South Africa: Economy flatlined in Q3
• Employment (Sep.)
• Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland
• Labour Market (Sep./Oct.)
• Oil sector supports stabilisation of Saudi economy
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
• Investors turn positive on metals
• What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields?
• Peru Economic Activity (Sep.)
• No need to panic over bond sell-off
• Headline supply overstates the risk to London office rents
• What does the bond “bloodbath” mean for the economy?
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.)
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• External position healthy despite wider trade deficit
• Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• CML Lending Trends (2016 Q3)
• UK House Price Index (Sep.)
• Tweaking our EM markets forecasts
• African Debt: Troubles contained in a few countries
• Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2016)
• How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy
• Norwegian & Finnish GDP (Q3)
• Wholesale Prices (Oct.)
• Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind
• Could the RCEP compensate for the demise of the TPP?
• Will European bonds fare better than US Treasuries?
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.)
• Will European bond yields follow US Treasuries higher?
• Korea’s political crisis deepens
• No need for panic over coming drop in multifamily starts
• Russia GDP (Q3 2016)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Trump win pushes bond yields higher
• Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Activity & Spending (Oct.)
• GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
• South Africa: Political drama will only intensify
• Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off
• Brexit Watch: Trump helps sterling find floor
• Commodities swing wildly on Trump victory
• Mixed quarter for the non-euro-zone markets
• Fall in yields regains momentum in Q3
• We expect the sell-off in the US Treasury market to continue
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• Trump win could still be bad for Canada
• Commercial property investment (Oct.)
• Nigeria and Libya push OPEC’s output higher
• What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed?
• Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold?
• Will Trump’s stimulus boost the world economy?
• Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia
• What to expect from the Q3 GDP data
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.)
• New – even more bearish – forecasts for Treasuries
• Four reasons a Trump presidency is still bullish for gold prices
• Where is political risk greatest?
• Taking stock of the reaction to Trump
• What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA?
• Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Trump rally may be a triumph of hope over reality
• What could President Trump mean for energy commodities?
• Peru: Rising inflation to trigger rate hikes next year
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)
• Housing rent to remain a drag on inflation
• Turkey Current Account (Sep.)
• Malaysia GDP (Q3)
• Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar?
• Korean rates to stay unchanged through 2017
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.)
• South Africa: Output data point to (another) sharp slowdown
• A note of caution on the rally in copper prices
• Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.)
• Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Treading water
• Machinery Orders (Sep.)
• New Zealand – RBNZ thinks it has done enough
• Trump, Russia and the future of sanctions
• Is the US stock market banking too much on Trump?
• Where next for the Egyptian pound?
• Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates
• Trump victory creates more business uncertainty
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Polish monetary policy to stay loose
• Why were markets so quick to shrug off Trump’s victory? Capital
• Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely
• What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market?
• Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Trump victory to bring lasting uncertainty and volatility
• Trump win to boost gold prices further
• Opportunities for China from Trump’s election
• Brexit minus, minus, minus?
• Trump win could widen policy divergence next year
• What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia?
• The global economic consequences of Trump’s victory
• Trade (Sep.)
• Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks
• Japan’s hopes for the TPP dead and buried
• PM Modi steps up anti-corruption drive
• Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK
• Market fallout from President Trump may not last long
• First thoughts on the US election fallout
• Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.)
• Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise
• Cocoa prices to struggle on improved supply
• Clinton win looking increasingly likely
• London housebuilding wobbles in Q3
• What would a Trump victory mean for the markets?
• Q3 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends
• Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election
• Coal prices are at the mercy of Chinese policymakers
• What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies?
• Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• China’s commodity imports dip in October
• Industrial Production (Sep.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.)
• German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.)
• Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Trade (Oct.)
• What would a Trump victory mean for Asia?
• Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.)
• How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar?
• Housing market activity constrained by low inventory
• How far can German property yields fall?
• Clinton rally or Trump sell-off likely to be short-lived
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.)
• Drop in food inflation has run its course
• How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory?
• World economy in decent shape on eve of US elections
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.)
• Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism
• FX reserves (Oct.)
• What will Egypt’s pound float mean for inflation?
• Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Halifax House Prices (Oct.)
• Indonesia GDP (Q3)
• Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• Surge in part-time employment in Australia may soon slow
• Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere
• US election taking centre-stage
• What to make of the US dollar’s recent performance
• Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy
• Property yields still have room for maneouvre
• Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit
• How much inflation will the MPC tolerate?
• Uncertainty will persist well past election day
• Oil slips but coal continues to burn brightly
• Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.)
• Employment Report (Oct.)
• Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone?
• Slower credit growth will keep a lid on inflation
• Can Chinese investment lift growth in Pakistan?
• GST begins to take shape
• Is consumer spending about to take off?
• Support from looser fiscal policy set to wane
• Markets need not worry about Trump too much
• The RBA’s tone is becoming more upbeat
• Australia Retail Sales (Sep.)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.)
• Sterling’s resurgence unlikely to go much further
• Housing market activity gradually recovering
• Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook
• Economy sustains its momentum but price pressures rise
• Russia CPI (Oct.)
• Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election
• Household debt mountain to weigh on Asian consumers
• Sweden’s Riksbank takes centre stage
• Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go?
• Era of ultra-low mortgage rates drawing to a close
• Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.)
• Central banks continue to add gold to their reserves
• Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Oct.)
• Swedish Production Indices (Sep.) and Services PMI (Oct.)
• Egypt floats pound, currency falls by 30% against the dollar
• Retail rental growth in Lisbon down but not out
• New Zealand – 1.75% may not be the floor
• International Trade (Sep.)
• Fed on track for December rate hike
• Will the rise in euro-zone bond yields continue?
• Would a Trump win really be bad for the S&P 500?
• Industrials continue to outperform
• What would a Trump win mean for commodities?
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct. Final)
• How would a Trump victory affect US equities?
• Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari
• What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty
• Mortgage Applications (Oct.)
• What would be the impact of a cut in VAT?
• Government likely to miss privatisation target
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.)
• Fourth quarter 2016
• Nationwide House Prices (Oct.)
• Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
• New Zealand Labour Market (Q3)
• Federal fiscal update doesn’t alter dismal growth outlook
• Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises
• EM manufacturing makes a strong start to Q4
• More good news from China largely priced in?
• Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.)
• GDP by Industry (Aug.)
• CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)
• Will Brazilian equities continue to outperform
• Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) & Manuf. PMI (Oct.)
• Saudi finance minister’s departure won’t mark end of austerity
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Oct.)
• Good news for industrials
• Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) & Swiss Retail Sales (Sep.)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• Baton passing to fiscal policy as BoJ reluctant to ease
• Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
• Chances of further cuts fading, but not disappearing
• Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
• PMIs (Oct.)
• Interbank rates spike but don’t signal policy shift
• What do lower equilibrium interest rates mean for asset prices?
• Latest data deal a blow to Brazil’s recovery
• Little risk to growth from Iceland’s election
• Would EM currencies underperform if Trump won?
• Markets in Thailand regain their poise
• Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth?
• Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.)
• Rate left on hold in Sri Lanka, but further hikes likely
• How will EM currencies react to Fed tightening?
• Korean scandal a blow for the president, but not the economy
• Lat Am central banks turning more dovish
• Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prel. Flash) & CPI (Oct.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.)
• Mortgage Lending (Sep.)
• Lending to commercial property (Sep.)
• Saudi devaluation fears fade, African oil currencies struggle
• Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Exports record first positive growth in two years
• Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded
• Commodities looking for direction
• 1992 or 2008?
• Will the sell-off in bonds continue?
• Germany-France divergence looks set to last
• Fed likely to delay rate hike until December
• Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent?
• GDP (Q3 1st Estimate)
• EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Sep.)
• German Flash CPI (Oct.)
• Rally in Berlin office rents not over yet
• Debt-to-equity swaps won’t resolve China’s debt woes
• Strong Q3 GDP figures: trick or treat?
• Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms
• Mozambique: Debt revelations push up bond yields
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.)
• Political risk on the rise in South East Asia
• Are political attacks on central banks just “noise”?
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.)
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.)
• France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
• When will the Bank of Japan start tapering?
• Revisiting the NPL problem
• How fast will inflation rise?
• Policy rate to be lowered further
• Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced)
• Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Venezuela: PDVSA bond swap tinkering around the edges
• Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months
• Would an OPEC production cut make a difference?
• Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3)
• Wage growth still relatively subdued
• Economy’s resilience will probably stay the MPC’s hand
• What do the UK GDP data mean for the markets?
• Capital values appear to be stabilising
• Durable Goods (Sep.)
• Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade
• Iceland Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Saudi dollar bond yields edge down following bumper sale
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)
• China and India’s gold imports (Sep.)
• Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q3)
• Riksbank set to loosen further but tide will turn before long
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep.)
• Africa: Political risk takes centre stage
• RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3)
• Norges Bank leaves policy unchanged, but rate cuts to come
• Rate cutting cycle may not be finished yet
• Politics help Lat Am markets to outperform
• World still awash with liquidity even as Fed prepares to hike
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (26th Oct. 16)
• Explaining recent developments in housing equity withdrawal
• Egypt edges closer to IMF deal as shortages bite
• New Home Sales (Sep.)
• What’s behind the resilience of EM currencies?
• Are retail sales providing a misleadingly-upbeat picture?
• Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery
• Spain’s new Government may be short-lived
• South Africa: Fiscal goals still too ambitious
• Fed likely to delay rate hike until December
• Job gains mostly part-time positions for older workers
• Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed?
• Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep. 16)
• Mozambique: What to make of the latest debt revelations
• Renewed drive for energy efficiency to cap oil demand and prices
• Small Business Confidence (Oct.)
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q3)
• Strong pick-up in Q3
• World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 16)
• Renminbi to continue its gradual decline against the dollar
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.)
• Another weak month for China’s metals imports
• Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable?
• First thoughts on Colombia’s tax reform
• A bright future for cobalt prices
• German Ifo Survey (Oct.)
• Further signs of regional slowdown
• Commodity prices turning into a tailwind
• Core price pressures remain elevated
• Korea GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
• Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise
• Flash PMIs (Oct.)
• US dollar set for further gains
• How much cheaper can high LTV lending get?
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct. & Q4)
• Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.)
• EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.)
• Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• External trade (Sep.)
• Is sterling now “fair” value?
• Brexit Watch: Higher borrowing won’t deter the Chancellor
• Should EM investors fear low volatility?
• What might derail our European property yield forecasts?
• Commodities pause for breath
• GDP growth boosted by strong export performance
• Renminbi has further to slide against US dollar
• Shift away from US could damage Philippines’ economy
• Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing
• Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts
• Political risks take toll on lira and leu
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.)
• How much has the economy slowed?
• Public Finances (Sep.)
• Interest rates to be left unchanged until 2017
• Surge in current account highlights sluggish demand
• Reform progress in Indonesia not enough to revive growth
• The mixed and messy labour market
• What is driving overseas demand for UK property?
• No need for the Riksbank to loosen policy further
• Spending growth holding up well
• Is the new-build premium really falling?
• Global Steel Production (Sep.)
• What next for the markets?
• ECB signals December QE extension
• Existing Home Sales (Sep.)
• Mexico’s star begins to fade
• Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end
• RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3)
• Global Aluminium Production (Sep.)
• Further easing set to be gradual as Bank Indonesia cuts again
• Easy credit lifting the service sector
• Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Fed drives a wedge between metals prices
• Bond market boosted by dovish RBI
• Brazil: rate cuts to remain gradual, for now
• Swedish Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail
• Australia Labour Market (Sep.)
• Will the Fed rock the boat?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Bank of Canada remains on the side lines
• Global growth to pick up slightly, led by EMs
• Can we forecast elections and referendums?
• Russia Activity Data (Sep.)
• Housing Starts (Sep.)
• First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s international bond sale
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)
• South Africa: Economy falters in Q3
• Industrials looking vulnerable to a turn in sentiment
• Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush?
• Steady as she goes
• Employment (Aug.)
• Labour Market (Aug./Sep.)
• What does the new estimate of the neutral rate tell us?
• Chile: MPC divided, but rates to remain on hold
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.)
• Will business investment remain sluggish?
• How will money market changes affect US government bonds?
• Near-term risks largely on the downside
• How will new money market rules affect demand for Treasuries?
• Would a Clinton win really be a boon for the stock market?
• How will new money market rules affect demand for Treasuries?
• Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone?
• Saudi Arabia to ease pace of austerity in 2017-18
• Is the MPC going soft on inflation?
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Aug.)
• Japan well placed to cope with higher energy prices
• Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign
• Investment in mainland Europe running at nine-year high
• UK House Price Index (Aug.)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
• New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3)
• Assessing the economic fallout from Samsung’s problems
• Will global demand remain weak?
• Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona
• Housing market activity to recover next year
• Headline inflation on the rise in both the US and UK
• Industrial Production (Sep.)
• What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales
• Exports showing signs of recovery
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)
• Cautious SNB won’t hike rates for some time yet
• Peru Economic Activity (Aug.)
• Brexit Watch: A second Scottish independence referendum?
• Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed
• Q3 data point to fairly slow growth
• Sterling’s Marmite fall now looks overdone
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
• US dollar appreciation constrains prices
• Recent job gains appear to be very low quality
• Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.)
• How far will the pound’s fall lift inflation?
• Is falling floor space per worker always a risk to availability?
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2016)
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.)
• Euro-zone Trade (Aug.)
• Construction Output (Aug.)
• Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery
• Peru: Interest rates to rise by more than most expect
• Bank will remain on the sidelines this year
• Malaysia to signal continued commitment to fiscal discipline
• Weathering the Brexit storm
• Wholesale Prices (Sep.)
• Surge in labour force soon to run out of steam
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)
• Monetary policy in Singapore to stay unchanged for some time
• What next for bond yields?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Oct. 16)
• How vulnerable are EM equities to developments in China?
• Recent fall in stocks suggests metals markets are tightening
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep. 16)
• Preparing for a December QE extension
• Is investor confidence in Madrid offices misplaced?
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• King’s death casts shadow over Thailand
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Aug. 16)
• China’s September commodity imports hold up rather well
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 16)
• Trade (Sep.)
• Korean rates to stay on prolonged hold
• What would a Trump victory mean for metals prices?
• NFIB & JOLT surveys point to slightly weaker labour market
• Fed, not high valuations, is key near-term threat to EM equites
• Will Clinton’s proposals boost homeownership?
• OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return
• Tide turning towards stimulus
• Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.)
• Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.)
• What might the US election mean for energy commodities?
• Oslo retail rents to lift higher, despite slow economic growth
• Turkey Current Account (Aug.)
• Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
• Machinery Orders (Aug.)
• Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand
• Will gilt yields carry on rising?
• Tight market conditions drive up house prices
• Rebound in oil prices is a mixed blessing
• Fallout from higher oil prices (mostly) good news
• South Africa Manufacturing Output (Aug)
• Commercial property investment (Sep. 16)
• German ZEW Survey (Oct.)
• Rising political risks threaten growth outlook
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.)
• Coming property price correction to weigh on growth
• Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.)
• The RBA, inflation and November
• Industrial Production (Aug.)
• US dollar likely to fall against other major currencies if Trump wins
• What’s driving the surge in Build-to-Rent?
• What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar?
• Poor health of the king is the key risk to Thai growth outlook
• Ethiopia: Political crisis rocks African growth star
• Saudi economy stabilises
• Nickel prices on increasingly shaky ground
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.)
• A primer on China’s new monetary policy regime
• Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• UK equities could fare even better
• Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak
• Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound
• Energy prices shrug off US dollar appreciation
• Will the UK stock market continue to strengthen?
• Softer employment growth to weigh on Dublin office demand
• Will the latest mortgage rule changes derail housing?
• Election unlikely to cause major shift in fiscal policy
• Employment Report (Sep. 16)
• Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16)
• Is another rate cut now off the table?
• Is the ECB going to taper?
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• What can we infer about regional prospects from equities?
• What would a Trump victory mean for Asia?
• Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.)
• Central banks resume gold buying in August
• House prices stabilised in September
• German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Aug.)
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.)
• Why is services inflation slowing?
• FX reserves (Sep.)
• Decent GDP growth in Q3, but headwinds persist
• Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.)
• Are Prague offices at a turning point?
• Recovery to grind on
• Food prices drive inflation rebound
• ECB more likely to extend, than taper, its asset purchases
• US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact
• Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up
• Why Turkey’s economy will struggle
• Dovish RBI risks stoking inflation pressures
• Australia International Trade (Aug.)
• Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017
• Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy
• Q3 growth slowdown won’t be too sharp
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (5th Oct. 16)
• How vulnerable are bonds to a shift in monetary policy?
• Polish MPC talks of rate hikes, but policy to remain loose
• Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.)
• Bond yields are likely to remain much lower than in the past
• International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16)
• Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
• Housing market looking resilient
• Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017
• Hopes of market rebalancing boost energy commodities
• Monetary policy and conditions still ultra-loose
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep. 16)
• Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Sep.)
• What would President Trump mean for Japan?
• Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
• The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem
• Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
• What to make of the IMF’s latest forecasts?
• Industrials steal the show
• We expect the US dollar to keep on rising
• Russia CPI (Sep.)
• CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 16)
• Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.)
• More dovish RBI may have to reverse course in 2017
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep. 16)
• Mixed message about euro-zone growth
• New Governor, same story
• Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth
• EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 16)
• A positive month for commodities
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 16)
• Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
• Should we be concerned about sterling’s slide?
• Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble?
• Still no need to worry about the pound
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Sep.)
• Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political
• Warsaw retail rents enjoying a purple patch
• Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.)
• Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
• Tankan Q3
• Could the neutral rate be even lower?
• Are yield ceilings the future for monetary policy?
• Brexit Watch: Is a “Hard Brexit” on the cards?
• OPEC’s surprise deal lacks substance
• What does SDR inclusion mean for the renminbi?
• Is China’s appetite for gold faltering?
• Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line
• Romanian rate hikes coming onto the agenda
• GDP by Industry (Jul. 16)
• Will the housing market hold back the economy?
• Consumer spending resilient ahead of referendum
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Aug.)
• Strong Saudi Q2 GDP data could be revised down
• Is euro-zone growth picking up or slowing?
• Nigeria: Naira crashes on parallel market
• A temporary pause in the EM recovery
• National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2)
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.)
• US natural gas prices unlikely to rise much further
• Rise in repo rate not a sign of policy tightening
• Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 16)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
• Large Brussels pipeline to allow Antwerp retail rents to get ahead
• Offshoring, the yen & inflation
• New president of the Philippines risks undoing recent gains
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
• FDI inflows should recover soon
• What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand?
• Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely
• How much would a Trump tariff hurt China?
• Valuations suggest “junk” bonds are still vulnerable
• Help to Buy won’t be missed
• Spanish economy could suffer from political chaos
• Reform progress provides healthy backdrop for EM equities
• Will oil continue to drive Asian equities higher?
• Is the recent surge in the money supply a concern?
• Is Airbnb behind the high number of vacant homes?
• Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero
• China still towards the top of EM worry list
• Stronger payrolls may not be enough to cut unemployment
• Resilient Chinese economy supports prices
• German Flash CPI (Sep.)
• An anatomy of Brazil’s recession
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.)
• Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal
• Taiwan’s central bank to resume easing cycle next year
• OPEC deal not a game-changer for oil markets
• Mortgage Lending (Aug. 16)
• Lending to commercial property (Aug 16.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)
• Are investors underestimating EM credit risks?
• Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook
• South Africa: Q2 rebound not a sign of things to come
• Vietnam GDP (Q3)
• Retail Sales (Aug.)
• The envy of the advanced world
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (28th Sep. 16)
• Deutsche Bank’s troubles unlikely to spark wider crisis
• OPEC is not the key to unlocking sustainably higher oil prices
• How big are the risks for Edinburgh and Glasgow offices?
• Mexican peso in the spotlight
• Durable Goods (Aug. 16)
• Is Africa’s economic downturn finally bottoming out?
• Duterte’s antics hits sentiment in the Philippines
• How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances?
• Small Business Confidence (Sep.)
• New governor to opt for policy continuity
• Rates on hold, but easing cycle isn’t over
• Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America
• Falling inflation adds to Bank of Canada’s concerns
• Will the rebound in the Mexican peso continue?
• Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve
• EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul. 16)
• Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)
• Egyptian dollar bonds perform well as IMF deal edges closer
• SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB
• Italy’s constitutional referendum poses economic risks
• Economics, not elections, the key to US equity performance
• How will politics in the US affect its stock market?
• New Home Sales (Aug. 16)
• Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth
• What do higher coking coal prices mean for iron ore?
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Would President Trump start a trade war?
• How are retailers coping with the National Living Wage?
• German Ifo Survey (Sep.)
• Rebound in Vienna office rents set to continue
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.)
• The structural decline in investment
• Fed telegraphs a December rate hike
• Brexit Watch: More evidence of support from fall in the pound
• Algiers unlikely to be a game-changer
• OPEC output freeze agreement likely to prove elusive
• Housing market confidence returns
• Flash PMIs (Sep. 16)
• Bank of Canada quiet on monetary policy options
• Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.)
• ECB unlikely to follow in Bank of Japan’s footsteps
• Is the economy in a Brexit sweet spot?
• Like the economy, property is holding up well
• Argentina: Q2 GDP data not as bad as they appear
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.)
• Mortgage surge not the key driver of stronger credit
• Could Swedish industrial rents have reached a plateau?
• Myanmar: A six month progress report
• Is rising real estate debt a cause for concern?
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
• The risks around our dollar forecasts
• Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next year
• Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines
• Egypt keeps rates unchanged, but large hikes lie ahead
• Existing Home Sales (Aug. 16)
• US Treasury yields still likely to climb, as the Fed tightens policy
• Was the uptick in industrial yields unwarranted?
• South Africa: MPC Statement hints tightening cycle complete
• Downturn easing, but outlook remains bleak
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Saudi Arabia likely to stick with fiscal austerity
• Will the Term Funding Scheme boost bank lending?
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 16)
• Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Sep.)
• Government moves a step closer to establishing new MPC
• China’s metals imports remained subdued in August
• Have lenders become more cautious?
• How will the BoJ conduct policy in future?
• Bank Indonesia cuts rates, further easing likely to be gradual
• Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted
• Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next year
• What to make of promises of more output from Libya and Nigeria
• External vulnerabilities remain low
• New Zealand – RBNZ desperate to get the dollar down
• Riksbank minutes suggest no extension of asset purchases
• Fed on track for a December rate hike
• Governments tighten the purse strings
• Market implications of the BoJ’s policy changes
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (21st Sep. 16)
• Global Steel Production (Aug.)
• What to make of the BoJ’s recalibration of monetary policy
• Recovery continues
• What can we learn from the Zillow Confidence Index?
• Central boroughs lead London slowdown
• Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico
• EM central banks remain in easing mode
• Riksbank minutes suggest no extension of asset purchases
• Hungary upgraded but bond rally limited
• Public Finances (Aug.)
• Frontiers turn to international bond markets
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Bank of Japan will have to lower policy rate further
• Rollout of GST is edging closer
• External trade (Aug.)
• Dollar strength weighs on sentiment
• Domestic factors unlikely to cause rupee slump
• A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance
• ABS House Prices (Q2)
• Should we be concerned about bonds in Asia?
• How will BoJ and Fed policy affect the markets?
• Have policymakers tamed BTL?
• Nigeria: CBN ignores government, maintains tight policy
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 16)
• Are investors starting to become wary about Dublin valuations?
• Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed
• Housing Starts (Aug. 16)
• Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers
• China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Jul./Aug.)
• Global Aluminium Production (Aug. 16)
• Investors take fright in the Philippines
• Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.)
• Equity prices come off the boil
• Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed
• UK macroprudential policy is set to support credit supply
• Low inflation won’t prevent a euro-zone slowdown
• Russia Activity Data (Aug.)
• Firms continue to hoard cash overseas
• What are the alternatives to a points-based migration system?
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.)
• United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power
• Bulging stocks to weigh on the prices of grains & soybeans
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)
• The view from the ground – Q3 2016
• RBA tweaks its policy agreement
• SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode
• Attention to return to the Fed
• Brexit Watch: Further monetary policy easing to come
• Are OIS rates a poor guide to US monetary policy?
• Markets still relatively sanguine about the election
• Hawkish Russian MPC still likely to cut
• Household debt continues to rise
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• Consumer Prices (Aug. 16)
• Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market
• Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well
• What are US OIS rates really telling us about future Fed policy?
• Hitting the target?
• Foreign investors not Finnished with Helsinki
• Comprehensive policy review should deliver more easing
• End of tourism boom no disaster
• Berlin election to add to signs of euro-scepticism
• Baht not to blame for Thailand’s export woes
• Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie?
• Lower import bill will keep trade deficit in check
• Prospects for consumers remain reasonably bright
• What next for EM currencies?
• Spare oil production capacity ample for now
• Outlook for German retail rents still positive
• Spending growth slowdown not too sharp
• Peru Economic Activity (Jul.)
• Rising stocks weigh on copper prices
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 16)
• EM equities under fire, as attention turns back to Fed
• Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up?
• What next for Brazil?
• MPC leaves the door open for another rate cut in November
• Sri Lanka GDP (Q2 2016)
• Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Final CPI (Aug.)
• Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Nigeria: Early signs point to deepening contraction in Q3
• SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions
• New Zealand – Improving outlook unlikely to prevent further rate cuts
• Australia Labour Market (Aug.)
• Corporate bond reform could ease financing constraints
• New Zealand GDP (Q2)
• SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (14th Sep. 16)
• Market conditions tighten as inventory falls
• Extension of “Juncker plan” would not be a game-changer
• Oversupply to weigh on the price of iron ore
• Fed unlikely to hike rates again before December
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug. 16)
• BoJ policy easing is likely to keep a lid on long-dated JGB yields
• Labour market slack no longer shrinking
• South African economy losing steam in Q3
• Ireland GDP (Q2)
• Venezuela: dodging near-term default, kicks can down the road
• Employment (Jul.)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
• Labour Market (Jul./Aug.)
• Will economic pain prompt a shift in Saudi oil policy?
• Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled out
• Wholesale Prices (Aug.)
• Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
• Inflation targeting – time for a change?
• Are valuations really stretched?
• What are the market implications of lower real interest rates?
• Should we be worried about low inflation expectations?
• Falling mining output to drag on regional recovery
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.)
• Making sense of higher asset valuations
• Official House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics (Q2)
• OPEC’s past form points to disappointment in Algiers
• German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q2)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.)
• Regional growth to stay subdued in 2017-18
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• S. Africa Current Account (Q2)
• Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016)
• Activity & Spending (Aug.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug. 16)
• Too soon to call the turn in global monetary policy
• EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums
• Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy
• Why this isn’t the beginning of the end for EM equities
• OPEC pushes back market rebalancing
• Why are central banks giving a cold shoulder to gold in 2016?
• Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.)
• EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes
• Commercial property investment (Aug. 16)
• Machinery Orders (Jul.)
• Brexit Watch: Recession fears continue to ease
• Yields to fall further as monetary policy stays looser for longer
• A roller-coaster week for oil
• What next for sterling and gilts?
• Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth
• Softer rental growth outlook will be offset by further yield compression
• Will Birmingham property continue to outperform?
• EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue
• Housing bubble still a tale of two cities
• Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down
• Labour Force Survey (Aug.16)
• Time to dump the junk?
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Did the MPC jump the gun in August?
• Mexico: big budget cuts to weigh on 2017 growth, mining sector
• Trade & Construction Output (Jul.)
• Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia
• Turkey GDP (Q2)
• Fiscal targets moving out of reach
• Korean rates to stay on hold until year-end at least
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
• The secret fiscal stimulus
• ASEAN still struggling for purpose
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (8th Sep. 16)
• ECB a touch less dovish, but its work is not done
• ECB holds off for now, but more easing still likely this year
• Rebound in activity won’t prevent further policy easing
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.)
• Are EM equity valuations really too high?
• South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3
• Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Are negative interest rates working?
• China’s commodity imports bounced back in August
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.)
• Retail sales’ strong start to Q3 won’t be sustained
• Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Trade (Aug.)
• Australia International Trade (Jul.)
• What to make of a possible swing towards fiscal stimulus?
• JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market
• Coffee prices perking up
• Is the pendulum swinging towards fiscal stimulus?
• Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut
• Mortgage Applications (Aug.)
• Post-referendum shock starts to wane
• Market implications of a possible shift in the policy mix
• Any weakness in silver prices to be short-lived
• Fall in inflation will be short-lived
• Labour market tightest since mid-1990s
• Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low
• FX reserves (Aug.)
• Halifax House Prices (Aug. 16)
• German Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Malaysia’s rate hold to continue
• Australia GDP (Q2)
• Fiscal deficit target is under pressure
• Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low
• Market conditions tighten further
• Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy
• Why we doubt US credit spreads will rise when the Fed tightens
• Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices
• CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
• Troubled States only a small part of Brazil’s fiscal problems
• No post-Brexit crisis, but world economy still struggling
• South Africa GDP (Q2)
• Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2)
• Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.)
• RBA thinks it’s done enough
• Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.)
• Investor interest on the wane
• US Treasuries still vulnerable to waning demand from foreigners
• Is the Philippines overheating?
• Russia CPI (Aug.)
• What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil
• Risk of Spain missing its deficit targets is building
• Growth slows but full-blown recession should be avoided
• IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 2016)
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.)
• Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Aug.)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.)
• New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets
• Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.)
• Turkey CPI (Aug.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.)
• Prices get a payrolls boost
• Taking stock of the EIA’s oil inventories report
• More of the same from the US labour market
• Construction PMI does not change the outlook for housebuilding
• Does it make sense to raise the inflation target?
• Rise in labour’s share of income has further to run
• Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.)
• International Merchandise Trade (July)
• What are equity prices telling us about GDP?
• Brexit Watch: Post-referendum hit eased in August
• Fall in sterling already supporting the economy
• How big a threat is Zika to Singapore?
• G20: lots of talk but not much action
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.)
• Will the stronger yen speed up offshoring?
• Slowdown in Spain won’t derail industrial rental growth
• Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
• Is China caught in a “liquidity trap”?
• Housing auction rates provide only part of the picture
• How to think about monetary policy after Rajan
• ECB may extend QE programme again
• EM manufacturing recovery pauses in August
• Dollar strength weighs on commodities
• Are US equities set for a rougher ride?
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip
• Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
• Why EM investors don’t seem to care about China any more
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.)
• Could policymakers cope with another downturn?
• Bank will be on hold for some time
• Is China engaging in QE by the back door?
• Investor sentiment sours
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.)
• Will the Brexit vote put the brakes on car spending?
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Paris office rents on course to surpass consensus forecasts
• Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
• Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
• PMIs (Aug.)
• Australia Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q2)
• Capital Expenditure (Q2)
• Brazil GDP (Q2)
• GDP (Q2)
• Will the dollar’s rebound be short-lived?
• Rousseff’s removal will shift attention to fiscal reforms
• Downturn in Hong Kong property market still has further to run
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report – (31st Aug. 16)
• Have valuations of EM equities peaked?
• Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts?
• GDP (Q2 2016)
• Speculation fuels oil price rally
• Is a stable stock market a sign of trouble ahead?
• Asian markets calm following Yellen’s comments
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.)
• Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again
• Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession
• Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 16)
• Norwegian GDP (Q2)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
• Danish GDP (Q2 16)
• Subdued demand bolsters stocks
• What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal?
• Small Business Confidence (Aug.)
• Resetting reform priorities after the GST
• Industrial Production (Jul.)
• Danish GDP (Q2 16)
• Norwegian GDP (Q2 16)
• Slump in exports another devastating blow
• Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies
• Currencies take Yellen comments in their stride
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16)
• Should we be worried about the low level of the VIX?
• Higher zinc prices could prove self-defeating
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun. 16)
• Are record “shorts” a new threat to sterling?
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jul.)
• Sri Lanka holds rates, but further tightening still likely
• German Flash CPI (Aug.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.)
• Mortgage Lending (Jul. 16)
• Recovery resumes
• Why is wage growth not picking up?
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.)
• Lending to commercial property (Jul.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.)
• What does sterling’s fall mean for hotels and central London retail?
• Slump in Saudi economy deepens
• RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year
• Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Jul.)
• Colombia GDP (Q2)
• Lending growth continues to recover
• Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low?
• Focus shifts to US payrolls
• Weakness of residential investment unlikely to last
• Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2
• Markets shrug off Yellen’s warning of stronger case for tightening
• What is Italy’s referendum all about?
• Industrial rents in Emerging Europe stabilise
• Existing Home Sales (Jul. 16)
• Mixed messages from economic surveys
• Brexit Watch: Surveys point to slowdown but not collapse
• What to expect from Jackson Hole
• Are rental affordability constraints starting to bite
• Office rental growth hits post crisis high
• Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period
• Markets stable one year after panic
• Africa: Political risk spook investors
• EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse
• GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (July)
• Some signs of a slowdown at the start of Q3
• Strong vehicle sales not a sign of consumption revival
• Corporate bond rate falls won’t save business investment
• The dangers of decoupling
• Is Japan still haunted by the undead?
• Household sector unlikely to offset weakness elsewhere
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Latest rise in food inflation should prove short-lived
• Heating up
• What does the rest of the year hold in store for oil prices?
• Jackson Hole likely to focus on longer-term issues
• Political tensions come to the fore
• Shrugging off Brexit worries for now
• Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable
• Durable Goods (Jul. 2016)
• Some positive signs from occupier markets
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3)
• Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal
• China and India’s gold imports (Jul.)
• German Ifo Survey (Aug.)
• EU trade deal unlikely to revive Indonesia’s tin exports
• Colombia peace deal won’t change near-term economic outlook
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (24th Aug. 16)
• World trade weakened in Q2
• Will EM equities find support from lower bond yields?
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) – 16
• Private investment slowdown overstated but still worrying
• More good news for Indonesia, but problems lie ahead
• Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off
• Should we be concerned about EM equities again?
• Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down
• China’s metals imports dip in July
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Currencies remain a concern
• Real consumption growth will inevitably slow
• Investors turn positive on oil
• New Home Sales (Jul. 2016)
• Is this the end of the road for EM equities?
• Flash PMIs (Aug.)
• Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards
• Africa: Japan’s role will remain limited
• Why aren’t the markets more worried about the renminbi?
• Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug)
• Two major reasons for cheer
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Peru GDP (Q2)
• Global Steel Production (Jul.)
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Will Portugal be excluded from the ECB’s QE programme?
• Has Brexit “Armageddon” been avoided?
• Gilt yields set to remain very low for a long while yet
• Mexico GDP (Q2)
• Too soon to sound the “all clear” on Brexit risks
• Global Aluminium Production (Jul.)
• Regional growth to improve as Brazil exits recession
• UAE set to embark on gradual recovery
• Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow
• Choice of new RBI governor signals policy continuity
• Weaker dollar supports commodity prices
• China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Jun./Jul.)
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)
• What’s behind the rally in oil prices?
• Should we be worried by household debt?
• Oil price rally based on shaky foundations
• Have home sales peaked?
• Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour?
• Easing likely to resume in Indonesia soon
• Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism
• Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Will term premiums anchor US Treasury yields?
• Lower bond yields counteract falling property yields
• London Housing Chart Book – London slowdown underway
• Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey?
• Public Finances (Jul.)
• US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook
• Fundamentals will conquer short-term fears
• Will underlying inflation turn negative?
• Export struggles to continue
• Why wage growth will stay low
• Gulf non-oil sectors struggle as austerity bites
• What’s behind the renewed slide in the US dollar?
• Little sign of immediate post-referendum hit to spending
• How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations
• Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2)
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery
• Putting the global slowdown into perspective
• Western investors to drive gold prices higher
• Rally in equities has further to run
• Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.)
• Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Philippines GDP (Q2)
• Australia Labour Market (Jul.)
• External trade (Jul.)
• Is the yen finally topping out?
• Growth should pick up as headwinds fade
• G20 blues lie ahead
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (17th Aug. 16)
• Dutch investment growth set to slow sharply
• Saudi economy probably contracted in Q2
• Should investors be concerned about Lisbon property?
• Russia Activity Data (Jul.)
• South Africa: Retail sales data point to Q2 rebound
• Employment (Jun.)
• China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jul.)
• Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity
• Labour Market (Jun./Jul.)
• Governor Kuroda is mulling another policy surprise
• New Zealand Labour Market (Q2)
• Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere
• Are Treasuries vulnerable to waning demand from overseas?
• Global imbalances to remain small by past standards
• Are rising foreign hedging costs a threat to US Treasuries?
• Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16)
• Slow take-up to limit impact of Shenzhen-HK Connect
• Housing Starts (Jul. 16)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Official UK House Price Index (Jun.)
• German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.)
• What can financial market volatility tell us about pricing?
• Czech GDP (Q2)
• Wholesale Prices (Jul.)
• Peru Economic Activity (Jun.)
• Will political tensions halt the outperformance of Russian bonds?
• Why our house price forecast is top of the pack
• Italy’s stagnation may soon turn to recession
• PGMs rally might have gone too far
• Thailand GDP (Q2)
• Gold bond scheme showing signs of success
• GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)
• Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought?
• Oil jumps on output freeze speculation
• Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16)
• Is China’s credit cycle starting to turn?
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16)
• GDP data highlight concerns about France and Italy
• Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit
• Retail Sales (Jul. 16)
• Stronger yen to drag on exports
• Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Have consumers shrugged off Brexit?
• China adds to the outperformance of EM equities
• Hong Kong GDP (Q2)
• Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)
• Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016)
• Chile & Peru MPCs hint that tightening done, but hikes still likely
• Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia?
• Lower rates to prop up Buy-to-Let demand
• How vulnerable are rents to an economic downturn?
• Malaysia GDP (Q2)
• Activity & Spending (Jul.)
• What would unconventional policy look like?
• Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains
• Dollar bond yields hit 2014 lows
• Q2 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends
• South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession
• Russia GDP (Q2 2016)
• Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.)
• UK government bond yields set to remain low
• Very low gilt yields are here to stay
• Russia GDP (Q2 2016)
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun. 2016)
• Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines
• Swedish Consumer Prices (July)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)
• A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports
• Moscow property about to turn a corner, albeit, slowly
• Bank of Korea’s rate pause to continue
• Singapore GDP (Q2 Revised)
• New Zealand – Heading to a low of at least 1.5% in New Zealand
• Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. 16)
• Brexit’s impact is already fading
• JOLT survey points to tightening labour market
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10th Aug. 16)
• OPEC production reaches another new record
• How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation?
• Brazil Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Ghana: Inflation headed down as economic imbalances unwind
• What’s behind the jump in US LIBOR?
• Will the BoE’s corporate bond buying make a difference?
• Will wage growth ever pick up?
• Rise in short-term interest rates is little to fear
• CML Lending Trends (2016 Q2)
• Commercial property investment (Jul.)
• No need to panic over maturing FX swaps
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
• Machinery Orders (Jun.)
• How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation?
• Sterling set for further (welcome) declines
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Productivity slump even worse than previously feared
• Bank of England’s meaningful action boosts asset prices
• Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe
• Will the post-Brexit slump be as bad as the PMIs suggest?
• Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.)
• Angola: Gradual recovery after a painful adjustment
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.)
• Governor Rajan holds rates in final policy meeting
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
• Talks of oil production freeze too little too late
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.)
• Is the rental market losing steam?
• Is the rally in Brazil’s currency the real deal?
• Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Iron ore bucks weak China commodity imports
• Lower interest rates prompt reduced return targets
• Has the zinc rally further to go?
• German Industrial Production (Jun)
• Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures
• Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Trade & FX Reserves (Jul.)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Jul.)
• Commodities wobble on strong US jobs data
• Markets take strong payrolls in their stride
• Export growth muted even without a trade war
• Post-referendum chill starts to show
• Pace of consumption growth will inevitably slow
• Brexit Watch: Policy response should cushion hit to growth
• Central banks to remain net buyers of gold
• Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.)
• Will the MPC’s bazooka hit the target?
• Has the rally in coal prices burnt out?
• ECB set to follow BoE despite policy limitations
• Mozambique: Debt worries are overblown
• Halifax House Prices (Jul.)
• Russia’s labour market is hiding slack
• Assessing Japan’s fiscal stance
• Australian dollar punishing the RBA
• Indonesia GDP (Q2)
• Food prices set to rise after floods
• RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5%
• Referendum won’t solve Thailand’s problems
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.)
• Further gains would not store up problems
• Have sugar prices hit a sweet spot?
• South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC
• Would looser global monetary conditions push EMs too far?
• Limited Brexit impact, but growth slowing nonetheless
• World economy shrugs off Brexit vote
• Will the MPC inject fresh life into the housing market?
• Turkey’s failed coup adds pressure for retail rents to fall
• Russia CPI (Jul.)
• Could monetary policy prop up capital values?
• Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood
• The MPC delivers & signals more to come
• Few signs of financial stress as credit bubbles deflate
• GST reform a major step forward
• PBOC probably won’t cut rates or the RRR anytime soon
• How is Ireland’s economy holding up after the Brexit vote?
• Weaker currencies continue to sustain supply
• Australia Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Monsoon impact on inflation limited
• New Zealand – RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0%
• China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May/Jun.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (3rd Aug. 16)
• How would additional easing from the BoE affect UK markets?
• Currency policy still lacks clarity one year on from RMB panic
• Mortgage Applications (Jul.)
• No sign of an end to political uncertainty in Spain
• Uganda’s economy set for slowdown next year
• Surveys provide first signs of post-referendum slowdown
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (July)
• Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Jul.)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July)
• Manufacturing PMI (Jul. 2016)
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jul. 2016)
• Thailand holds policy rate, but cut likely soon
• Turkey CPI (Jul.)
• New Zealand Employment (Q2)
• Oil prices more likely to rise than fall
• A strong month for metals
• Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers)
• Will US equities shrug off a rebound in the dollar?
• What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of
• Will monetary policy drive the Aussie dollar lower?
• CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
• Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Paris offices shrug off France’s wider economic woes
• Brexit drag on transactions and prices to last until next year
• Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt
• Is the worst over for Indonesia and Malaysia?
• Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.)
• Stimulus package doesn’t let the BoJ off the hook
• Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
• Rates in Australia may yet have to fall to 1.0%
• Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Jun.)
• Rates to stay on hold as Rajan heads for the exit
• Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
• Global growth held up well in Q2
• EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3
• France’s Q2 stagnation likely to be more than a one-off
• ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2016)
• Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (July)
• Stars continue to align for EM equities
• What is behind the latest gains in EM equities?
• Italy and Ireland the losers from bank stress test
• Industrial metals steal the show
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July)
• Brazil: the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jul.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (July)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)
• PMIs (Jul.)
• Rates to reach new record lows
• GDP (Q2 1st Estimate)
• Yet more policy easing to come
• Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause
• US dollar weakness supports prices
• Brexit Watch: Growth slowed significantly around the vote
• Slower euro-zone GDP growth a sign of things to come
• Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble
• Yen still likely to fall back, even if the BoJ is not bold
• Lower rates should help lighten the mood
• GDP by Industry (May)
• Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) & Chile Activity (June)
• Dublin’s office pipeline unlikely to lead to oversupply
• How could fiscal policy be reset?
• Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is
• Recovery in EM growth pauses
• PBOC steps up FX interventions
• Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom
• US Treasuries, credit spreads and the hunt for yield
• The music stops for oil, but coal picks up the tune
• Mortgage Lending (Jun.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.)
• Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI (July)
• Lending to commercial property (Jun. 16)
• Asian markets set the pace in July
• Is municipal debt the next frontier for QQE
• Swedish GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
• Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable
• Is Pakistan ready for life without the IMF?
• Bank of Japan not done yet
• The bigger picture on inflation
• A snapshot of the services sector
• Taiwan GDP (Q2 Advanced)
• Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now
• Will the MPC deliver this time around?
• How big a threat are Italy’s banks?
• Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high
• Lat Am equities up despite softer commodities
• Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2)
• QE to get a new lease of life?
• Will the US stock market continue to weather a stronger dollar?
• Labour market remains in good health
• Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle has further to go
• German Flash CPI (Jul.)
• Africa: Naira finally breaking free
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (July)
• Investors turn positive on industrials
• RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2 16)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (July
• Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 16)
• Don’t over-interpret Greece’s glimmers of hope
• Stockholm offices represent good value despite historically low yields
• Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50%
• Fed edging toward a September rate hike
• Brazil turning the corner
• Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (27th Jul. 16)
• US Treasuries, corporate bonds and the search for yield
• Déjà vu for oil prices?
• Durable Goods (Jun.)
• Sentiment towards Irish property takes a hit, while Hungary shines
• Policymakers will struggle to boost economy
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.)
• Turkish markets start to stabilise
• New president of the Philippines makes encouraging start
• Don’t believe the fiscal hype
• Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (June)
• Small Business Confidence (Jul.)
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q2)
• Swedish GDP (Q2 16, 1st Estimate)
• Brushing off Brexit
• Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery
• Will there be a lasting divergence in UK and US monetary policies?
• Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (May/Jun.)
• Off-exchange stocks may plug any gaps
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
• Hungary’s MPC could still turn to rate cuts
• Tougher few months in prospect
• China and India’s gold imports (Jun.)
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun. 2016)
• Gulf equities lag behind
• Belgium among most exposed to Brexit fallout
• Korea GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
• Fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent BoJ from easing
• Gulf between Fed and BoJ likely to widen and weigh on the yen
• Global fallout from Brexit: one month on
• RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2)
• Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico?
• Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards
• Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth
• “Premature de-industrialisation”: red light or red herring?
• Stronger end to Q2
• Egypt: fresh devaluation on the way
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3)
• German Ifo Survey (July)
• How does Brexit affect our European commercial property forecasts?
• External Trade (Jun.)
• Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ
• Investors shrug off plunge in UK PMI
• Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable
• Extent of wildfire disruption about to become clearer
• One month after the referendum
• Early Brexit signals provide some comfort
• GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption
• Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May)
• Brexit Watch: Markets keep their cool despite slowdown signs
• Flash PMIs (Jul.)
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (July)
• Few signs of collapse in prices but risks loom
• Could the market talk itself into a correction?
• Taiwan’s struggles to continue
• After the coup…
• Capital Flows Monitor (June)
• Life after Brexit
• UK Flash PMIs (Jul.)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July)
• Japan, Baron Munchausen and the debt swamp
• Shining a light on aluminium demand
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
• Capital injections too small to revive banking sector
• Dollar strength takes some steam out of prices
• Further upside for gold and silver prices
• Confidence takes a knock post-referendum
• Prospects for world trade growth worsen
• Will corporate bond spreads stay low?
• South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely
• Existing Home Sales (Jun.)
• Glut of oil products to weigh on demand for crude
• ECB set to act in September
• Brazil IPCA-15 (July)
• Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes
• Higher prices could dampen China’s metals imports
• Bank Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but further easing likely
• Low oil prices hitting home
• Bond market rally likely to run out of steam
• Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context
• Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jun.)
• What does Brexit mean for the public finances?
• Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty
• New Zealand – RBNZ hits out at high dollar
• Monetary Indicators Monitor
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (20th Jul. 16)
• Global Steel Production (Jun.)
• The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit
• ECB likely to ease policy further soon, if not this month
• Improving data point to September rate hike
• Global Aluminium Production (Jun.)
• What next for EM monetary policy?
• Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes
• Labour Market & BoE Agents’ Scores (May/Jun.)
• South Africa Consumer Prices (June)
• No signs of major stress in labour market
• Employment (May 2016)
• Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk
• Commodities benefit from greater risk appetite
• IMF changes its tune on Brexit
• Policy response should cushion the hit from leave vote
• We expect long-term Treasury yields to continue to climb
• S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure
• Russia Activity Data (Jun.)
• Housing Starts (Jun. 2016)
• Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.)
• German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
• Mainland Europe investment likely to be boosted by Brexit
• Official UK House Price Index (May.)
• Austerity now all but over
• New Zealand – New LVR rules raise the chance of rates going below 2.0%
• Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote
• Service sector remains healthy
• Nigeria: Rise in inflation has further to go
• Loose monetary policy to prop up growth
• Poor fundamentals likely to ensure that Turkish lira underperforms
• Brexit to push prime German property yields even lower
• EM export slump gradually easing
• The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup
• The nickel price rally could lose steam
• The MPC raises the stakes
• Export slump ends but sharp rebound unlikely
• Is the Bank of Japan already delivering “helicopter money”?
• New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2)
• Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop?
• Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.)
• Participation rate will fall further
• Brexit Watch: Tentative signs of post-referendum slowdown
• Hopes of policy stimulus boost industrial metals
• Labour market nearing full employment
• Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last?
• Unspectacular growth in China good enough for EM equities
• Peru Economic Activity (May)
• Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Manufacturing Sales (May)
• What to expect from Emerging Asia in 2017-18
• Mixed effect of Brexit on CEE property markets
• ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded
• Sterling slump cushions post-referendum hit to equities
• Euro-zone Trade (May) & Final CPI (Jun.)
• Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon
• Where to look for signs of Brexit spillovers
• Is “Helicopter Ben” heralding more easing?
• The part-time problem
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)
• Q2 GDP & June Activity
• South Africa’s Mine Production (May)
• Brexit vote adds to downside risks
• ECB may bide its time, but action needed very soon
• Colombia: Peace deal will improve medium-term outlook
• How much longer will corporate profits buoy the US stock market?
• Is there too much debt in the world?
• MPC must deliver in August
• Brexit will have limited impact on housing market
• Economic growth already fading again
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul 2016)
• South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q2
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun 2016)
• Strains in Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments starting to ease
• Trade tariffs pose limited threat to euro-zone exports
• Turkey Ind. Production & Current Account (May)
• Wholesale Prices (Jun.)
• Bank of Korea in wait-and-see mode
• Australia Labour Market (Jun.)
• Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced)
• Making the most of weaker currencies?
• Structural improvements mean EMs have more fiscal leeway
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Jul. 16)
• Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements
• UK MPC likely to ease policy despite calm after vote for Brexit
• Bank of Canada cuts GDP growth forecast
• How big is the threat from property?
• Post-Brexit housing market: when will we know?
• Weakening Italian economy to hit office rental growth
• Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.)
• Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains
• Another strong month for China’s commodity imports
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016)
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (May)
• Trade (Jun 2016)
• Malaysia jumps on easing bandwagon
• Ireland GDP (Q1)
• Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
• Slower global growth to weigh on PGM prices
• Hard evidence points to weakness in Saudi economy
• NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market
• EMs sail through headwinds
• Yen/dollar heading back to 110
• After the referendum – how will the housing market fare?
• Investment activity in H2 likely to be subdued
• Hungary revamps monetary framework…again
• Mexico Industrial Production (May 2016)
• Is the Nikkei about to be lifted by ‘helicopter money’?
• Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May)
• South Africa Manufacturing Output (May)
• Inflation to slow but stay above target
• Swedish Consumer Prices (June)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.)
• New Zealand – New Zealand dollar won’t continue to defy gravity
• Swedish Consumer Prices (June 16)
• The Netherlands will be hit harder than most by Brexit
• A cautionary (but still positive) note on Japanese equities
• How will policymakers respond to the Brexit vote?
• What will Russia’s recovery look like?
• Two-thirds majority no reason to cheer
• Will China worries resurface?
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
• Machinery Orders (May)
• Business investment not coming to the rescue
• Prices vulnerable to a reassessment of US rate outlook
• Consumer spending will continue to drive GDP growth
• Doves rule the roost despite strong US payrolls
• Labour Force Survey (June 2016)
• Employment Report (June 2016)
• Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape
• Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis?
• A Goldilocks depreciation?
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• What options does Taiwan’s central bank have left?
• How could Brexit affect North Sea oil production?
• Trade (May) & GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
• French Industrial Production & German Trade (May)
• A look ahead to 2018
• Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.)
• Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter
• Labour Cash Earnings (May)
• Why wait?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (7th Jul. 16)
• Markets take China’s ‘stealth’ devaluation in their stride Capital
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016)
• Weakness in official sector’s gold buying to be short-lived
• Floods add risks to inflation outlook
• Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual
• Nordic transaction levels on course to beat 2015
• Recovery loses some momentum in Q2
• Halifax House Prices (Jun.)
• FX reserves (Jun.)
• Industrial Production (May)
• EM pick-up to prove short-lived
• German Industrial Production (May)
• Brexit is a local, not global, shock
• Loss of AAA rating wouldn’t raise borrowing costs
• Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.)
• PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility
• Bank unlikely to act despite downgrade to GDP forecast
• Commodity currencies could make further gains
• Will ‘Brexit’ drive a new bull market in gold?
• Growth starting to slow
• Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now
• International Merchandise Trade (May)
• Will single-family housing starts ever recover?
• Mortgage Applications (Jun.)
• South Africa Business Confidence (June)
• How has Brexit affected our forecasts?
• Is sterling a good indicator of global Brexit risks?
• Don’t panic about the pound
• Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations
• German industrial yields to fall despite looking relatively expensive
• Revisiting our Emerging Europe forecasts
• Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations
• Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (June)
• RBA not too worried by political uncertainty
• What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions?
• Passage of Goods and Services Tax edging closer
• Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May)
• Headwinds to QQE intensifying
• Brexit vote not a game-changer for world economy
• Will Egypt turn to the IMF?
• Palm oil prices to fall further
• Sterling’s slide boosts UK equities
• Sterling likely to fall further (which would be no bad thing)
• Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand
• CoreLogic House Prices (May)
• Germany won’t suffer most from Brexit vote
• How concerning is the news from open-ended funds?
• FPC announces action to support bank lending
• Terrorism poses a threat to Bangladesh’s long-term prospects
• Rebound in EM equities set to continue
• What next for EM equities?
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (June)
• Brexit impact will be ultimately positive for euro-zone prime property
• China’s data flaws extend beyond GDP
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jun.)
• Aluminium demand is stronger than often thought
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)
• Turkey CPI (Jun.)
• What does the election mean for the economy and markets?
• Prices rally into July
• Brexit vote has a silver lining
• Commodities brush off Brexit blues
• EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• Will H2 2016 be as kind to UK financial assets as H1?
• How far will inflation rise?
• Brexit Watch: One week on
• What scope do European cities have to profit from any Brexit job shifts?
• How dark are the clouds over London’s skyline?
• Brazil Ind. Prod. (May) & Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• Will silver continue to outshine gold?
• Brexit to hit France harder than Germany
• Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed
• China’s move up the value chain – what it means for Korea
• China concerns could soon replace Brexit fears
• What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector?
• Falling oil supplies trump Brexit concerns
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jun.)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Manufacturing PMIs (June)
• Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen?
• Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)
• PMIs (Jun.)
• Households can cope with lower wealth
• Tankan (Q2)
• Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (May)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.)
• Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets
• Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries
• Why the recovery in the markets and what next?
• GDP by Industry (Apr.)
• Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery
• Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July
• New market forecasts in the wake of the “Brexit” vote
• Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote?
• Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets
• What have we learned since the referendum?
• New Argentine GDP data look plausible…but point to recession
• What next for monetary policy in Taiwan?
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & German Retail Sales (May)
• National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1)
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
• Emerging European markets underperform after Brexit vote
• A new era of very low inflation
• Industrial Production (May)
• MENA countries go calling to the IMF
• China’s markets calm after Brexit
• MENA countries go calling to the IMF
• MENA region set for weakest growth since the 1980s
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Markets recover after Brexit jolt
• Post-Brexit sell-off unlikely to push up inflation in the EM world
• Oil demand to rise, despite Brexit
• Brexit may not delay the next US rate hike for very long
• Brexit shouldn’t be a game-changer for the Fed
• After Brexit, will Quitaly be next?
• How much has “Brexit” changed prospects for monetary policy?
• Post-Brexit EM market moves likely to be driven by Fed & China
• German Flash CPI (Jun.)
• A more subdued outlook for China’s copper demand
• Housing market activity finally picking up
• Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) & Mortgage Lending (May.)
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (June)
• Asian markets shrug-off Brexit
• Ratings upgrade in Hungary will outweigh potential Brexit fallout
• Lending to commercial property (May)
• Would FX intervention halt the strengthening of the yen?
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (May)
• Small Business Confidence (Jun.)
• Brexit volatility won’t prompt July rate cut
• Further FDI reform will prove harder to implement
• Retail Sales (May)
• EM recovery continues
• Is the China crisis over?
• Housing market activity finally picking up
• How much of a lift will a weaker currency provide to UK equities?
• Assessing the political fallout on CEE from Brexit
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
• What to make of Korea’s stimulus package?
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.)
• Electric cars could be a game-changer for base metals
• Sterling & UK equities – no 1992 redux
• South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be
• Second-quarter GDP growth looks good
• Vietnam GDP (Q2)
• Brexit roils Lat Am markets but economic fallout limited
• Brexit not a major threat
• “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions
• How does markets’ Brexit shock compare to past crises?
• Leave vote will weaken spending, but not dramatically so
• Recovery still elusive
• Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth
• How dramatic are recent market moves?
• Economy approaching full employment
• Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one
• Putting recent market moves into perspective
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
• Who will succeed Governor Rajan at the RBI?
• Has Abenomics failed?
• China and India’s gold imports (May)
• Economic growth continues to misfire
• Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited
• Will the calm continue after the UK’s vote for a “Brexit”?
• A relatively muted response to Brexit
• Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up
• Durable Goods (May)
• Which country might be next to hold an EU referendum?
• Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy
• Immediate impact of Brexit limited for European property
• Brexit, EMs and some common questions
• Sri Lanka steady for now but raising rates soon
• What will the policymakers do?
• ECB needs to act decisively
• The view from the ground – Q2 2016
• “Brexit” is not a disaster for the world economy
• Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength
• Global Markets Update – Has the “Brexit” storm already passed?
• UK vote for ‘Brexit’ not a game-changer for commodities
• Currency moves, not economic links, main Brexit concern
• BBA Mortgage Lending (May.)
• Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash
• German Ifo Survey (June)
• Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices
• Brexit vote rattles EMs
• Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU?
• Asian economies and markets should shrug off Brexit
• UK vote raises longer-term risks to Eastern Europe
• UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe
• Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy
• What will the Philippines look like under Duterte?
• Does the absence of an easing bias rule out more rate cuts?
• ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece
• Financial risks continue to build in China
• New Home Sales (May)
• Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• A brief guide to referendum night
• Brexit Watch: Markets expect voters to reject Brexit
• $50pb oil still leaves Venezuela in deep trouble
• Another month of moderation
• Africa sinking?
• Philippines: interest rates to remain low for some time yet
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June)
• Norges Bank to cut interest rates in September
• Rise in Athens retail rents doesn’t signal a wider market revival
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Egyptian markets suffer amid balance of payments concerns
• What might a ‘Brexit’ vote mean for the yen?
• The wait is over – will the UK vote to leave or stay in the EU?
• Existing Home Sales (May)
• CEE markets focus on Brexit risks
• Brexit Watch: All eyes on final flurry of opinion polls
• Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg?
• EM growth starting to turn a corner
• Amsterdam office rents set to shrug off high vacancy rate
• Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts
• South Africa Consumer Prices (May)
• Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited
• Underlying inflation to remain low
• Should the BoJ become more flexible?
• Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg?
• Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts
• Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2016)
• Would a “Brexit” lead to a rout in emerging market currencies?
• Global Steel Production (May)
• Brexit Watch: Polls and bookmakers still at odds
• Will further political uncertainty in Spain derail the recovery?
• Hungary hints at further unconventional easing
• Saudi economy stagnates as austerity takes its toll
• What is going to move markets before the Referendum result?
• Would a Brexit trigger the ECB’s OMTs?
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.)
• How significant is the slide in inflation expectations?
• German ZEW (Jun.)
• Capital Flows Monitor (May)
• China’s metals imports treading water
• Public Finances (May)
• Markets calm as Governor Rajan heads for the exit
• Will leisure’s poor rental run be sustained?
• Are investors right to be targeting Manchester?
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
• Fading Brexit fears to return the focus to the Fed, and China
• Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit?
• Brexit Watch: Markets bounce as Leave loses poll lead
• Russia Activity Data (May)
• Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect
• Global Aluminium Production (May)
• Increased US drilling activity to limit upside for oil prices
• Rising consumer spending to lift Bucharest retail rents
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May)
• Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor
• External trade (May)
• How will the UK’s vote on EU membership affect the markets?
• All about Brexit
• Macri makes inroads into Argentina’s deficit but more work to do
• Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor
• Housing Starts (May.)
• Copenhagen industrial yields set for substantial falls by 2018
• House price gains fuelled by increasingly risky mortgages
• Consumer Prices (May)
• Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery?
• Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May)
• Global monetary policy set to be even looser for longer
• Is average normal for US equities?
• Brexit would still shock markets, despite shift in polls
• Brighter times ahead for India’s gold demand
• Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global
• Asian consumers facing growing headwinds
• China would shrug off a Brexit vote
• Are renewables jumping the queue?
• A Brexit would force the ECB into action
• Brexit uncertainty not weighing on consumer spending
• Iron ore prices have further to fall
• Revisiting the risks from populism
• Will banks’ falling profits undermine lending?
• Australia need not fear a Brexit
• BoP data show further strengthening in external position
• Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery?
• Industrial and precious metals prices diverge
• Vote for Brexit may prove to be a damp squib
• Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount
• Three reasons not to panic over ‘Brexit’
• What to expect after the referendum result
• Will Greek debt ever be sustainable?
• Brexit uncertainty bites as referendum looms
• Consumer Prices (May)
• Why can’t home sellers extract higher prices?
• Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC
• Retail Sales (May.)
• Africa: Economic giants now contracting
• SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit
• Bank of Japan to provide more easing next month
• Export slump close to an end but long-term prospects subdued
• Australia Labour Market (May)
• New Zealand GDP (Q1)
• SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit
• Fed moves the goal posts yet again
• Energy Data Response
• Industrial Production (May)
• Peru Economic Activity (Apr.)
• Are PMIs still the most useful measures of global growth?
• Fed inaction unlikely to last long
• Slower employment gains to weigh on Spanish office rental growth
• First reflections on Temer’s first month
• Sri Lanka GDP (Q1)
• Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption
• How would Brexit affect Sweden?
• Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible
• Euro-zone Trade (Apr.)
• Employment (Apr.)
• Labour Market Data (Apr./May)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
• Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
• How would Brexit affect Sweden?
• A new equilibrium in the US stock market
• Prospects for consumer spending remain fairly bright
• Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease
• No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey
• How low will global bond yields go?
• Negative yields to boost gold’s appeal as a reserve asset
• What would Brexit mean for Ireland?
• Retail Sales (May)
• Official UK House Price Index (Apr.)
• Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (May)
• S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May)
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
• Is the slowdown in investment as dramatic as it seems?
• Uncertain times ahead
• Wholesale Prices (May)
• Swedish Consumer Prices (May 16)
• OPEC point to balanced market by the end of the year
• Brexit would still be a surprise to markets, despite latest polls
• Peru’s election confirms continuation of market-friendly policy
• Inflation expectations are rising not falling
• Consumer Prices (May)
• Activity & Spending (May)
• Falling underlying inflation to require more easing
• “Brexit” risks coming into focus
• Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip
• UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
• Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances
• Are resurfacing global growth fears causing bond market rally?
• Energy production other shoe to drop
• Labour Force Survey (May)
• Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.)
• EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote
• Retail rental growth to cool in Italy
• Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Russian MPC resumes easing cycle
• Should Asia worry about Brexit?
• Euro 2016 unlikely to kick off French recovery
• How big a boost might “Brexit” provide to gold?
• Record-low gilt yields reflect global factors
• How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship
• Is a rise in inflation “baked in the cake”?
• French & Italian Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Turkey GDP (Q1) & Current Account (Apr.)
• Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics
• Hot housing fires up policy debate
• Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates
• Bouncing back
• The global fall-out from a vote for Brexit
• What would “Brexit” mean for commodities?
• Mexico Consumer Prices (May)
• Gold rebounds as US real yields hit one-year low
• Low inflation to persist almost everywhere
• “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade
• Nigerian oil output disruptions are another wildcard for prices
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.)
• South Africa: Key sectors improve at start of Q2
• Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia
• Remain vote would bring rate hike back onto agenda
• Why has stronger credit not lifted growth?
• Trade (Apr.)
• RICS Residential Market Survey (May.)
• Egypt Consumer Prices (May)
• What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans
• Consumer & Producer Prices (May)
• Machinery Orders (Apr.)
• New Zealand – Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Fed won’t move until labour market uncertainty clears
• How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit?
• What next for tin?
• Will the 10-year German Bund yield turn negative?
• Weather forecasts heat up US natural gas prices
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (May)
• Commercial property investment (May)
• A new official UK house price index
• China’s commodity imports holding up well
• South Africa: Sharp contraction very worrying sign
• Are ECB corporate bond purchases already a success?
• Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Trade (May)
• Economy Watchers Survey (May)
• Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut
• GDP (Q1 Revised)
• Causes and consequences of a lower US equity risk premium
• Capital value growth set to slow
• Prime yields still some way from their floor
• Another reason why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued
• Slump in investment dragged growth down in Q1
• Should European markets be more worried about Brexit?
• CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.)
• First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan”
• Rally in coal prices likely to be smothered
• Counting the cost of Brazil’s credit binge
• Iceland GDP (Q1)
• Halifax House Prices (May.)
• Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1)
• German Industrial Production (Apr.)
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
• RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end
• RBA treading water in uncharted territory
• Iceland GDP (Q1 16)
• Set for a slow recovery
• Stocks look comfortable, for now
• The future still looks bright for the US dollar
• Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway
• Home sales finally making some headway
• Are central bankers going soft on their inflation targets?
• Can EM equities continue to outperform?
• Russia CPI (May)
• Slowdown in underlying inflation should rattle BoJ
• Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers
• GDP growth will benefit from oil price rebound
• Whole Economy PMIs (May)
• Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway
• Colombia GDP (Q1)
• When bad news is good news…
• Consumption growth likely to slow
• Peru’s presidential election: three key risks
• International Merchandise Trade (Apr.)
• All eyes on the Fed and the UK referendum
• EM equities buoyed by soft US Employment Report
• Rise in inventory-to-sales ratio not a recession signal
• Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy
• Strong dollar weighs on precious metals prices
• Referendum uncertainty putting the brakes on growth
• Employment Report (May)
• Brexit Watch: PMIs show uncertainty biting
• Investors turn more cautious
• QE expansion uneven across the euro-zone
• Housing market to cool regardless of Brexit vote
• Will Vietnam’s exports continue to boom?
• Markit/CIPS Report on Services (May)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May.)
• House price pressures appear to be easing
• Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE
• More workers but less work
• Migrant workers reveal strains across economy
• First quarter good, second quarter not so good
• Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Deflation persists
• Regional growth to strengthen as Russia exits recession
• Fed, Brexit, China – which is the biggest threat to EMs?
• ECB holds fire but more easing still likely
• What are the risks for EMs?
• Is mortgage debt set for another dangerous boom?
• Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.)
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May)
• Key events to watch in the run-up to the EU referendum
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May)
• Consumer Confidence (May)
• Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.)
• Why interest rates may have to fall to 1%
• Further cuts to repo rate unlikely
• Domestic strength can’t keep propping up Emerging Asia
• New Zealand – RBNZ is not done yet
• Supply concerns defy the dollar
• EM PMIs lacklustre but stable
• Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
• Which currencies are fundamentally overvalued?
• ISM Manufacturing Index (May)
• Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving?
• Mortgage Applications (May)
• A fresh look at currency misalignment
• Brazil GDP (Q1)
• How would the ECB respond to a Brexit?
• Lending to commercial property (Apr.)
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.)
• Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (May) & Money and Credit (Apr.)
• Delay in sales tax hike brightens outlook for 2017
• Latest news from China unsettles commodities
• Nationwide HPI & Mortgage Lending (May/Apr)
• Turkey: defying gravity…for now
• Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• Manufacturing PMI (May)
• Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• PMIs (May)
• Australia GDP (Q1)
• Capital Expenditure (Q1)
• Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over
• What difference would MSCI inclusion make?
• How low could gold and silver go?
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
• Asian currencies slide on Fed fears
• Conf. Board Cons. Conf. (May) & Pers. Spending (Apr.)
• Monetary aggregates and credit continue to expand steadily
• Should we worry about China’s “A-shares” and the MSCI?
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.)
• Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment?
• Will “A-shares” make the grade and would it matter?
• Italy’s recovery losing speed
• GDP (Q1 2016)
• GDP (Q1)
• South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review
• Cobalt prices should benefit from strong demand
• Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
• DeMontford Commercial Property Lending Survey (H2 2015)
• Danish GDP (Q1)
• Few surprises expected at OPEC meeting
• Small Business Confidence (May)
• Industrial Production, Household Spending & Unemployment (Apr.)
• Danish GDP (Q1 16)
• Nigeria: Crisis escalates
• Another look at the ailing banking sector
• Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• What explains the contrast in Indian and Brazilian equities?
• Rising oil doesn’t necessarily lift all prices
• Q2 slowdown isn’t just about Alberta wildfires
• What are the prospects for Latin American oil?
• Four reasons for (cautious) optimism on the world economy
• Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed
• Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes
• EM growth edges up for second consecutive month
• IPF Consensus Forecasts (May)
• Brexit Watch: Recession warnings haven’t spooked investors
• Silver price to benefit from increasing focus on solar
• Even a small Brexit hit could leave fiscal rules broken
• Nigeria: Analysing President Buhari’s first year
• Usual suspects repeating the same old mistakes
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May)
• How much have shortages held back housebuilding?
• How will the sales tax decision affect the outlook?
• Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Stuck in transition
• Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1)
• Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole
• More musings on US and European equities
• April data dampen hopes for strong rebound
• The contrasting outlook for new and existing home sales
• Digging deeper into US and European stock market valuations
• Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind
• Further scope for German office values to rise
• Verizon strike to hit May payrolls hard
• Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all
• Durable Goods (Apr.)
• Staying in the EU would not guarantee a spike in investment deals
• Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort
• China and India’s gold imports (Apr.)
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr.) and Housebuilding (Q1)
• GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1)
• Five quick points on Brent at $50
• Lat Am currencies rattled more than most
• Egypt’s tourism sector stares into the abyss
• Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Renminbi weakness needs to be seen in perspective
• Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy
• Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics
• Russia’s Eurobond reveals sanctions premium
• How will the UK referendum affect global monetary policy?
• High stocks to weigh on the nickel price, for now
• How will EM currencies handle the Fed?
• Rental and capital value growth moderate
• Can UK equities weather a Brexit?
• What is going on with the renminbi?
• Will EM currencies underperform as the Fed hikes?
• June rate hike far from a done deal
• Eurogroup’s Greek debt pledges fall a long way short
• German Ifo Survey (May)
• The implications of a vote to stay in the EU
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• PM Modi’s first two years end on a high note
• Singapore GDP (Q1 Revised)
• Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk
• Valuations could protect EM equities from the Fed
• Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility
• New Home Sales (Apr.)
• How has the demand for Treasuries changed?
• Brexit not a major threat to world trade
• Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (May)
• Have Dublin office yields fallen too far?
• Is Europe heading back into crisis?
• Hungary ends easing cycle, Turkey’s has further to run
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
• Austrian result offers only brief respite from far-right’s rise
• German ZEW Survey (May) & GDP Breakdown (Q1)
• Public Finances (Apr.)
• Rupee to weaken only gradually
• Manufacturing PMI points to sharp slowdown in Q2
• How and where we differ from the consensus
• Flash Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• Will the US dollar continue to recover?
• Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk
• Russia Activity Data (Apr.)
• Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone
• Would Brexit really be a game-changer for global markets?
• Turning bearish on lead demand
• Tunisia: NT outlook subdued, but LT prospects improving
• What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe?
• China’s metals import demand remained strong in April
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May)
• How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up?
• US-style collapse unlikely, but house prices will still fall
• External Trade (Apr.)
• Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength
• Existing Home Sales (Apr.)
• Fed jitters take some of the steam out of the rally
• Nigeria GDP (Q1)
• Global Steel Production (Apr.)
• Supply disruptions fuel oil price rally
• Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation
• How do the valuations of US and euro-zone equities compare?
• A bumpy ride ahead
• Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Brexit Watch: Remain poll surge eases markets’ Brexit jitters
• Economic uncertainty slows yield falls and rental growth
• Mexico GDP (Q1)
• Marked slowdown in capital value growth
• Brazil IPCA-15 (May)
• Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)
• Sri Lanka keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon
• Consumer back on form
• EM central banks pause for breath
• Gold price to end the year higher despite Fed tightening
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
• Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy?
• South East Asia continues to lead the way
• How long can pensioners keep spending?
• Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries
• Will markets take the resumption of US rate hikes in their stride?
• South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle
• What if the Fed does hike again in June?
• Consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty
• Frontier market governments push for reform
• What to expect from next month’s OPEC meeting
• Key takeaways from London Platinum Week
• Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Bank Indonesia opens door to further easing
• Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do
• Shifting into lower gear
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• State election results brighten reform outlook
• Philippines GDP (Q1)
• Australia Labour Market (Apr.)
• Can China afford to bail out its banks?
• Machinery Orders (Mar.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• What can homebuilder share prices tell us about housing starts?
• Will “other forces” keep US Treasury yields down?
• What to expect from the G7 finance ministers
• Any post-referendum sterling rally to be short-lived
• An interest rate cut still on the cards later this year
• Will US Treasury yields stay low again, despite Fed tightening?
• Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1)
• April data not all gloomy
• South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause
• Is the rally in US steel prices sustainable?
• UK Commercial Property Data Response
• Will Dutch consumers keep on spending?
• Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.)
• Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes
• GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.)
• Will rising Treasury yields rattle EMs next year?
• Investors remain broadly positive
• Has the threat of deflation disappeared?
• Should EMs fear rising US Treasury yields next year?
• French strikes darken the economic outlook
• Sentiment towards precious metals continues to improve
• Housing Starts (Apr.)
• Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.)
• Can the rest of MENA weather the slowdown in the Gulf?
• Euro-zone Trade (Mar.)
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• Can Tsai rescue Taiwan’s economy?
• What’s going on with EM currencies?
• Czech GDP (Q1)
• Tax amendments another success for Modi government
• Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme
• Will its overvaluation prevent the US dollar from rising?
• Three reasons to be wary of the latest surge in oil prices
• Peru Economic Activity (Mar.)
• Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes
• Will 2017 be a worse year for US Treasuries than 2016?
• Has London’s housing market reached a precipice?
• Philippines: shift to interest rate corridor not a game changer
• Russia GDP (Q1 2016)
• Mounting risks bode ill for Italy
• What next for US Treasuries?
• Falling property yields draw closer to fair value
• Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return
• Wholesale Prices (Apr.)
• Thailand GDP (Q1)
• Activity & Spending (Apr.)
• Import weakness to keep trade deficit in check
• Latest OPEC Report offers no surprises
• Oil up on supply outages, metals down on demand fears
• How will the MPC respond to the EU referendum?
• Fed falling further behind the curve
• Market turmoil following “Brexit” may be much less than feared
• Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May)
• More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects
• Brexit Watch: Slowdown isn’t just about Brexit
• Commodities Watch – WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals
• Euro-zone growth will slow from here
• Is Thailand about to boil over again?
• Will copper continue to underperform oil?
• Construction Output (Mar.)
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prov.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q1)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)
• Is the BoJ really running out of assets to buy?
• Peru holds rates but hikes still on the horizon
• Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2016)
• Malaysia GDP (Q1)
• Korea likely to loosen monetary policy soon
• Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key
• WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals
• Will Latin America continue to outperform?
• Brexit fears still weighing on sterling despite rally
• Nigeria: FX comments, fuel price hikes offer hints of reform
• Q1 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trend
• Will oil continue to outperform?
• How keen are households to buy homes?
• Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth
• European gas prices will undershoot oil price recovery
• MPC strikes a gloomy note on Brexit risks
• Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.)
• South Africa: Very weak showing in key sectors
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.)
• Low inflation means rates will remain low in the Philippines
• How big a deal is immigration from the EU?
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Brazil: Senate votes to put Dilma on trial, what comes next?
• Limited further upside for Swiss office values
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.)
• Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut on the way
• Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength
• What explains the widespread falls in property values in March?
• EM credit bubbles deflating, but risks building in China
• Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut on the way
• Is the economic slowdown about more than Brexit?
• Buyers continue to outnumber sellers
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout
• What do the low level of lettings instructions tell us?
• Will impeachment in Brazil unleash another big rally?
• London construction: risk or vote of confidence?
• Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon?
• Greek debt talks won’t provide much relief
• Stockbuild in China reflects optimism about demand
• Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed
• Industrial Production (Mar.)
• EM export recovery continues
• Thailand’s rate pause to continue
• Australia Consumer Confidence (May)
• Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed
• How much of a threat are electric cars to PGMs demand?
• NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal no labour market deterioration
• On the relative prospects for bonds in the US and elsewhere
• C&SEE GDP growth slower, but still strong, in Q1
• Oil production outages supporting prices, for now
• Africa: Economic shock not over yet
• Copper still waiting in the wings
• Turkey Current Account (Mar.)
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Bankruptcy reform would be a major step forward
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.)
• Commercial property investment (Apr)
• Trade (Mar.)
• German Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• Central banks’ gold demand held up well in Q1
• How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy?
• Where next for the Philippines?
• What next for US corporate bonds?
• Will Ireland’s new Government keep the recovery going?
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk
• China’s commodity import demand remains robust
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
• Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change
• Halifax House Prices (Apr.)
• Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.)
• Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities
• What to make of April’s US Employment Report?
• Brexit Watch: Uncertainty hits business surveys
• Investor exuberance wanes
• Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
• Thoughts on the rise of political risks in EMs
• Incoming data point to second-quarter pick-up
• March data show spike in Transactions
• US to regain momentum, euro-zone to slow
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Employment Report (Apr.)
• Denmark and Sweden industrial rents set to outgrow Norway
• Resilient sentiment suggests economic gloom overdone
• EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic
• Precious metals rally on dollar weakness
• Would a tax on firms’ cash revive investment?
• Is the Philippines about to shoot itself in the foot?
• Get used to low underlying inflation
• How Lowe will interest rates go?
• Inflation to remain close to target
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)
• Will the US stock market run out of steam?
• Brexit uncertainty starting to take its toll
• MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum
• The weakness of the Turkish lira is probably far from over
• Is the worst now over for the manufacturing sector?
• Further signs that the Saudi economy is struggling
• Oil price rally could be sowing seeds of its own destruction
• Romanian MPC remains cautious, Czech MPC stays dovish
• Inflation picks up
• A note of caution on the recent price rallies
• Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy
• Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Apr.)
• Strength of growth in Q1 unlikely to be sustained
• Polish deflation: less than meets the eye?
• Inflation to remain close to target
• Likely resignation of Turkey’s PM raises authoritarianism fears
• Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.)
• Yen reaches fresh highs against dollar
• Is the recent rally in PGM prices sustainable?
• Consumers to weather Brexit uncertainty well
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• EMs, financial risks and the Fed
• EM equities: time to call Mayday?
• How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk?
• International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1)
• International Merchandise Trade (Mar.)
• Mortgage Applications (Apr.)
• About that fiscal hole in Brazil…
• Is consumer spending stronger than we thought?
• Has the rally in “junk” bonds gone too far?
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.)
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Apr.)
• Egypt: pressures on pound build, further devaluation on the cards
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
• Indonesia GDP (Q1)
• New Zealand Labour Market (Q1)
• EM industry still in better shape than at start of the year
• It’s all about the dollar
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.)
• Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain
• What to expect on EU referendum day and shortly after
• Will the US dollar’s slide end any time soon?
• Colombia: Tightening cycle close to an end
• Are Portugal’s fiscal problems over?
• CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)
• Investor outlook remains upbeat, despite fall in Q1 activity
• Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Turkey CPI (Apr.)
• Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.)
• Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5%
• Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
• PMIs (Apr.)
• SLOS shows contrast between business and consumer lending
• ISM Manufacturing (Apr.)
• Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
• Oil leads the way up
• Almost all news is good news
• Brexit Watch: Slowdown not all due to Brexit fears
• Putting the retail sector’s productivity problem in context
• Positive capital markets drivers will support further yield falls
• Would further US labour market strength be good for the S&P 500?
• Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan
• Anti-immigration stance would hurt Austria
• Headwinds restraining GDP growth will fade in H2
• Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.)
• Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• How much of Q1 slowdown is due to Brexit fears?
• Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained
• Corporate bond spreads widen
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.)
• Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off
• Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles
• Growth in Sri Lanka to slow despite IMF deal
• Global growth edged up in Q1, and is set to recover further
• Could Asia’s central banks get unconventional?
• Medium-term prospects remain bright
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.)
• Mortgage Lending (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.)
• Lending to commercial property (Mar.)
• Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• Spare capacity to widen further
• Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating
• Taiwan GDP (Q1 Advanced)
• Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed
• Egypt central bank holds rates, but further hikes likely soon
• Will the Fed spoil the party?
• Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets
• Has property finally turned the corner?
• Will EM petro-currencies continue to outperform?
• Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome
• What next for negative rates?
• Africa: IMF takes centre stage
• GDP (Q1 1st Estimate)
• Malaysian ringgit rebound continues
• German Flash CPI (Apr.)
• BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth
• Don’t get carried away with Saudi Arabia’s reform plans
• EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.)
• German retail rents to rise despite moderation in consumption growth
• Nationwide (Apr.) and Land Registry (Mar.) House Price
• Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay?
• RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.)
• Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully
• Bank of Japan will be forced to ease more before long
• Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon
• Dollars go from helping to hindering
• Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• New Zealand – Rates will reach a floor of 1.75% in New Zealand
• Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed
• Fed less worried by global risks; open to June rate hike
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Surge in net external debt a long-term negative for dollar
• Investors cannot ignore oversupply of iron ore much longer
• More to relative equity performance than currency fluctuations
• How long will the rebound continue?
• Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam
• Warsaw offices rental value falls far from over
• Peru’s copper boom set to continue
• Q1 saw fastest growth since 2014
• Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q1)
• CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.)
• Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
• Fall in inflation could prompt cut to 1.75%
• Small Business Confidence (Apr.)
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q1)
• Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets
• Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb)
• Global monetary conditions still loose
• Hungary’s MPC a little more cautious, but further rate cuts likely
• Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal
• How will the contrast in Fed and BoJ policies affect the markets?
• Durable Goods (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.)
• Autocatalyst demand to boost PGM prices
• Has the rally in zinc prices got further to go?
• Sri Lanka holds rates, but hikes likely soon
• China and India’s gold imports (Mar.)
• Is helicopter money an option in Japan?
• BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.)
• Turkish bond market rallies
• When will pork price inflation peak?
• Currency effects begin to unwind
• Korea GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• New Home Sales (Mar.)
• China’s credit growth is a concern, but not a crisis
• Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound
• Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” provides few new details
• Oil rally helps to lift pessimism over Russia
• Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy
• CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2)
• German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
• What would the impact be if Governor Rajan stepped down?
• Rents and capital values lose momentum
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Bank to announce more easing this week
• Brexit Watch: Uncertainty starts to weigh
• Investor enthusiasm drives prices higher
• Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
• Are Argentine bonds really that attractive?
• Canadian dollar rally isn’t a major threat to GDP growth
• Slowdown in GDP growth won’t be sustained
• Will a rise in saving slow the consumer recovery?
• Gilt yields to rise regardless of referendum outcome
• Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts?
• Both sides overstate effect of Brexit on trade
• Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.)
• Are Asia’s policymakers running out of fiscal firepower?
• Is the stronger yen actually a boon for Japan?
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
• Banking sector still requires wider reform
• Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth
• Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now)
• World trade ticks up in February
• Monetary policy divergence to resume
• ECB policy should help to weaken the euro in time
• A mixed bag for Chinese agricultural imports in Q1
• Would Brexit raise mortgage rates?
• Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits
• Will Saudi Arabia flood the oil market again?
• Rebound in oil prices is indeed a game-changer
• Capital Flows Monitor
• Some respite for commodity producers
• Spending growth moderates
• Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets
• A strong first quarter for China’s metals imports
• No cuts in Indonesia likely until new policy rate comes into force
• China’s PGM imports point to strong demand in Q1
• Further falls needed to bring Moscow retail rents back to reality
• Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.)
• FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden
• IMF behind the curve on EM capital flows
• Bond market rally could soon run out of steam
• Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity
• New Zealand – Rates may have to fall to 1.75%
• FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
• New Turkish central bank governor likely to cut rates further
• Will the dollar’s boost to US equities last?
• Prime Belgian retail rents to defy soft consumer fundamentals
• Global Aluminium Production (Mar.)
• Ditching of Chinese subsidies unlikely to rein in exports
• How will the dollar affect the US stock market?
• Will further Fed hikes trigger a renewed surge in the dollar?
• Global Steel Production (Mar.)
• Fed to leave door open to June rate hike
• Mexico: time to throw in the towel?
• House price inflation to converge on earnings growth
• Investors turn positive on agriculturals again
• RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1)
• Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound
• Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.)
• Employment (Feb)
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook
• External trade (Mar.)
• US equity valuations still not that stretched
• 5 questions on Argentina’s return to the bond market
• What does China’s currency policy imply for the US dollar?
• Prices rebound in April
• “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat
• Getting used to lower growth
• Silver playing catch-up with gold
• Housing Starts (Mar.)
• Is the world economy nearing “stall speed”?
• Russia Activity Data (Mar.)
• Signs of a rebound in Q1
• Will the Fed let inflation overshoot?
• German ZEW (Apr.)
• Why Ukraine still needs the IMF
• Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Monetary policy loosening in Korea more likely than not
• Government faces uphill task to meet export target
• Treasury’s Brexit report rests on some pessimistic assumptions
• Why didn’t Brazilian markets rally more?
• Little reason to expect office rents in Milan to jump
• Doha disappoints, but oil market likely to rebalance anyway
• Greece’s first bailout review still not a done deal
• Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha
• Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets
• Central London retail values to hold on to recent gains
• Earthquake unlikely to have major economic impact
• Property revival shoring up growth, for now
• Wholesale Prices (Mar.)
• New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1)
• All eyes on Doha
• What next for Bunds?
• Are vehicle sales nearing the finish line?
• Industrial Prod’n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.)
• More than meets the eye to new Bank Indonesia policy rate
• What might the Grand Paris project mean for CBD property?
• Manufacturing Sales (Feb.)
• Some things to keep in mind about Q1 GDP
• Brexit fears not weighing heavily on bank lending
• Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth
• World economy to benefit from slightly looser fiscal policy
• Chinese data point to robust commodity demand
• Euro-zone Trade (Feb.)
• German Bund yields – how low can they go?
• EM export decline easing off
• Support for the price of cocoa should fade later this year
• Mine supply to tighten across all precious metals
• Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year
• Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits
• Will inflation ever reach 2%?
• Export downturn set to drag on
• Q1 GDP, March Activity & Credit
• What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand?
• Deal or no deal in Doha?
• EM markets benefit from resurgent commodity prices
• Sterling remains vulnerable
• Policymakers running out of ammunition
• Mortgage applications are understating housing demand
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Record take-up points to logistics rental growth across Germany
• Will negative interest rates lead to higher savings?
• MPC gives warnings about EU referendum
• South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.)
• Commercial property investment (Mar)
• South Africa: Mining figures suggest weak Q1 GDP growth
• What is the end-game for Japan’s debt problem?
• Stock movements more related to supply than demand
• RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.)
• Is consumer spending about to take off?
• Elections in Korea deal further blow to reform hopes
• Australia Labour Market (Mar.)
• Further policy loosening in Singapore unlikely
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Argentina ruling clears way for return to bond market
• The election and its implications for the economy and markets
• What’s behind the dollar’s slide?
• Bank of Canada will cut rates later this year
• OPEC trims its demand outlook on growth fears
• Mood improves but Brexit fears still evident
• What next for oil prices?
• Retail Sales (Mar.)
• What might Brexit mean for European property?
• Still some way off from sustainable aluminium price rally
• Glut of grains & soybeans heading into this year’s harvests
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
• Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown
• Brazil: notes from the ground
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1)
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1)
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.)
• A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports
• Chile postpones interest rate hikes on weak economy
• Has monetary policy lost its power?
• Trade (Mar.)
• Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great
• IMF still behind the curve
• EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF
• Will Brazil continue to outperform?
• Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.)
• Saudi economy feeling the strains of austerity
• Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away?
• Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis
• Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.)
• Is this a temporary setback for the dollar?
• Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Has Turkey regained competitiveness?
• The tin rally is all about supply
• BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
• QQE continues to face strong headwinds
• Recovery to weather referendum uncertainty well
• PMs lose momentum but technical outlook remains positive
• What’s behind the dollar’s slide?
• Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.)
• Qatar: rapid credit growth starting to ring alarm bells
• Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies
• Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal
• Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Mar.)
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Turkey Current Account (Feb.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)
• Machinery Orders (Feb.)
• Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting
• Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting
• Yen may still be under-valued, but it surely needs to be
• Where do the risks lie?
• Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound
• Potential growth still held back by productivity slump
• A simple economist’s view of the euro and the yen
• Temporary boost to demand shows signs of waning
• Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• How worrying are the falls in the activity surveys?
• US gasoline consumption to continue growing strongly
• ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears
• Gold’s rally far from over
• After the panic, what next for EMs?
• Prague high streets offer decent value despite historically low yields
• Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.)
• Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.)
• Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing
• Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.)
• Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
• Dollar crucial when domestic demand is slowing
• Current Account (Feb.)
• We need to talk about Q1 GDP growth
• Are EM equities just a play on oil?
• Signs of a growing inflation problem in Colombia
• Prospects for monetary policy still point to rebound in dollar
• Could prime shopping centre rents be a bright spot in retail?
• Strong US home building to underpin the price of lumber
• Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages
• South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now
• International Merchandise Trade (Feb.)
• Halifax House Prices (Mar.)
• Zinc demand looks promising
• Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet
• FX Reserves (Mar.)
• Inflation to ease again but RBI’s targets under threat
• Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired
• Is the grass greener in Tokyo?
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Renminbi still likely to weaken further against the US dollar
• Housing demand on the up
• Too soon to sound the all clear on the renminbi?
• Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold
• Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
• Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply
• Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy
• Consumer recovery set to fade
• What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance?
• World Gold Official Reserves (Feb.)
• Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook
• Inflation outlook appears benign
• Economy weathering Brexit uncertainty reasonably well
• Will commercial banks now pass on policy rate cuts?
• German Industrial Production (Feb.)
• Tigers in trouble, but better prospects elsewhere
• Will shopping vouchers boost consumption?
• What are the prospects for household spending?
• Growing imbalances cast cloud over recovery
• What’s behind the rebound in the yen?
• How much longer will yen strength weigh on the Nikkei?
• Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.)
• Peru’s election unlikely to mark shift in economic policy
• US silver imports and exports (Jan.)
• Metals price rally may prove unsustainable, for now
• CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)
• Can Italy’s recovery continue?
• Are yield falls about to go into reverse in Oslo offices?
• Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.)
• Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued
• Agriculturals benefit from a weak dollar, but will it last?
• PGMs outperform on improved China prospects
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.)
• Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Mar.)
• Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job
• Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.)
• RBI cuts repo rate but loosening cycle now at an end
• Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar
• South Africa: The Zuma saga is far from over
• Will the Philippines continue to grow strongly after Aquino?
• Australia International Trade (Feb.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.)
• Mexico: 2017 budget cuts to keep fiscal deficit in check
• Too soon to give up on a Doha deal to cap oil output
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4)
• Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout
• What are the chances of a deal in Doha to freeze oil output?
• Will high valuations snuff out the rally in EM equities?
• Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut
• CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.)
• Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.)
• Turkey CPI (Mar.)
• Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• Australia Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.)
• Surge in US acreage doesn’t bode well for corn prices
• Rebound in business intentions unconvincing
• Singapore is not a global bellwether
• EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year
• Commodities hit by strong US data and Saudi comments
• Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• Is the recovery getting back on track?
• Central European yield falls to outstrip other European sub-regions
• What is behind the slowdown in consumption growth?
• Markets start Q2 on a sour note
• Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change
• Our key calls for this year
• Russia GDP (Q4)
• Brazil Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• China data finally starting to turn?
• Commodities spring into life
• Employment Report (Mar.)
• The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing
• What can LME stocks tell us about the aluminium market?
• Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.)
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
• Structural factors holding back wage growth
• Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
• PMIs (Mar.)
• Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner?
• Tankan (Q1)
• How much does the weather matter for energy commodities?
• How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation?
• New Argentine GDP data a step in the right direction
• The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro
• Brexit fears still weighing on sterling, despite recent gains
• Rhodium price to benefit from tighter fundamentals
• GDP by Industry (Jan.)
• Korean won leads the way
• Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Mar.)
• Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery?
• Romanian MPC hints at rate hikes, Czech MPC stays dovish
• South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.)
• How worrying is the record current account deficit?
• Cypriot success story comes with caveats
• Rand finally rebounds
• Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.)
• National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4)
• Mortgage Lending (Feb.)
• Lending to commercial property (Feb.)
• How will the reform of the EU sugar regime affect world prices?
• Will the participation rate continue to rebound?
• Copenhagen offices set for solid, but unspectacular, rental growth
• GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
• Turkey GDP (Q4)
• State elections take centre stage
• Is China attempting the impossible?
• Rebound in margin lending boosts equities
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts?
• EM growth dragged down by Brazil
• Yellen remarks underline the pivotal role of oil prices
• US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Still struggling
• LNG prices to continue to struggle this year
• Commodities may be only lasting winners from Yellen’s dovishness
• Nigeria reverses course?
• Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Feb.)
• Is there still a “Brexit premium” on UK assets?
• No rebound yet
• EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.)
• Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Feb.)
• Where next for Myanmar?
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.)
• Money and credit aggregates still expanding steadily
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)