Product and Engineering
Karthik AK
Articles published by Karthik AK
- Stronger growth not generating major imbalances
- Fears of protectionism weigh on prices
- Household debt will remain a risk for years to come
- Headwinds mount
- External trade (May)
- Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle
- Manufacturing Sales (Apr.)
- Should we be worried by softer pay growth?
- Why are we so bullish on Nordic office rents?
- What could upend the ECB’s plans?
- EM export growth already starting to slow
- Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) & Goods Trade (Apr.)
- Banks report rise in demand from riskier borrowers
- ECB strikes dovish tone as asset purchases set to end
- Mixed data to keep the hawks in the minority
- Retail Sales (May)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (May.)
- West Africa: Easing cycles will continue
- Is the euro-zone’s recovery too good to last?
- Is the rise of flexible offices distorting vacancy rates?
- Central Bank of Iceland on hold but rate rises coming
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May)
- UK House Price Index (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.)
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May)
- Where will office rents rise fastest?
- Employment (Apr.)
- Labour Market (Apr.)
- Rising incomes good news for rental growth
- Commercial property investment (May)
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.)
- Financial stability concerns unlikely to lead to tightening
- Norwegian Consumer Prices (May)
- At the tipping point
- Scandinavia and Switzerland look late-cycle
- Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands
- Stronger data keeps August hike on the cards
- Mixed signals from Italy’s new government
- Icelandic GDP (Q1)
- What will happen to Italy’s TARGET2 liabilities?
- Price pressures continue to ease
- Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil
- Apartment construction rebounds
- Euro-zone GDP (Q1, Breakdown)
- Halifax House Prices (May.)
- What are the prospects for the leisure sector?
- Inflationary pressures in Iceland set to grow
- Mortgage Applications (May)
- Swiss Consumer Prices (May)
- Signs of a consumer revival
- Is Italy a worry for Switzerland and the Nordics?
- Markit/CIPS Services PMI (May)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
- Swedish Private Production (Apr.)
- We don’t expect the rebound in global equities to continue
- Spending outlook brightens
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (May)
- Should we worry about rising GCC public debt?
- UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May)
- A boom but no bust?
- Italy turmoil boosts Swiss franc and government bonds
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.)
- Lending to commercial property (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
- Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May)
- Swiss & Danish GDP (Q1)
- Will turmoil in Italy spark contagion?
- What might cause property yields to rise sharply?
- Are rising house price expectations a concern?
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (May)
- Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss KOF
- Rising oil prices won’t prevent a consumer recovery
- TARGET2 imbalances highlight Italy’s fragile situation
- Turkey: more to monetary policy shift than meets the eye
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.)
- Key questions about Italy
- Household credit growth slows sharply
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
- A snap election would be good for Spain
- US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations
- IPF Consensus Forecasts
- Will rising oil prices hold the economy back?
- Pulling down our currency forecasts
- Durable Goods (Apr.)
- Early signs of a consumer revival
- What’s holding single-family starts back?
- Will the ECB’s hopes on growth be dashed?
- Global Steel Production (Apr.)
- Hard evidence of a landlord sell-off
- German retail well beyond peak occupier demand
- GDP Second Estimate (Q1)
- UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Apr.)
- German Ifo Survey (May)
- Does the oil price determine other commodity prices?
- Will the dollar continue to recover?
- Relief for the Turkish lira proves fleeting
- FHFA Prices / Existing Home Sales (Mar./Apr.)
- Bank to remain on the side lines
- Strong payrolls to keep Fed on track for June rate hike
- Will Italy’s new government cause a crisis?
- Retail Sales (Apr.)
- Little movement in rents or yields
- New Home Sales (Apr.)
- Majority of markets overvalued
- Will Swedish wage growth ever pick up?
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.)
- UK House Price Index (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May)
- Is the sterling boost over?
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- The implications of Switzerland’s “Vollgeld” referendum
- Public Finances (Apr.)
- Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)
- How long will the strength in jobs growth last?
- Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come?
- Running out of steam
- Investment market losing momentum
- Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates
- Why the MPC won’t fall too far behind the Fed
- Will transactions fall further?
- Commercial property investment (April.)
- M5S/League proposals highlight risks to Italian bonds
- Housing Starts (Apr.)
- Q1 weakness a prelude to slower growth this year
- UK Finance Lending Trends
- Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now
- Colombia GDP (Q1)
- Why is housing equity withdrawal falling back?
- BJP election surge in Karnataka boosts reform prospects
- Argentina: lessons from 2001/02
- Are Western city house prices overheating?
- Macron’s first year bodes well for France
- MPC unlikely to wait too long
- Subdued spring for the housing market
- Are we too optimistic on Dublin retail rents?
- Solid occupier markets to support capital values
- Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now
- Mortgage rates are still on an upward path
- MPC to wait for evidence that slowdown is temporary
- Should we worry about a M5S-League alliance?
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.)
- Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors
- Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI (Apr.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.)
- Buyers rush in to beat rising mortgage interest rates
- Riksbank minutes tinged with hawkish comments
- Halifax House Prices (Apr.)
- Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities
- Will Brexit red lines be rubbed out?
- What do higher oil prices mean for euro-zone inflation?
- Why did the OBR get its fiscal forecasts so wrong?
- The outlook for mortgage demand
- Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.)
- GDP: Preliminary Estimate (Q1)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
- French and Spanish GDP (Q4) & Flash CPI (Apr.)
- Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1)
- ECB likely to keep quiet on monetary policy until July
- World trade growth holding up well (for now)
- Will the Swiss franc continue to weaken?
- Any pause before rates rise again will be short
- New Home Sales (Mar.)
- Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Feb.)
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr.)
- Public Finances (Mar.)
- Investment activity slows over start of 2018
- German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
- Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.)
- Tighter monetary policy on the horizon
- Does falling inflation support or undermine case for rate hike?
- Global Aluminium Production (Mar.)
- Slowdown on the horizon
- Three more years of housing market malaise
- Trade war fears overblown, for now
- Policymaking takes turn for the worse as elections approach
- Expect “closed-mouth” operations from Mr Draghi
- Economy to withstand higher interest rates
- Changed Riksbank guidance will still signal 2018 rate rise
- Outlook for real pay brightens
- Are Amsterdam office rents getting too high?
- RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1)
- Retail Sales (Mar.)
- Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come
- Will blockchain revolutionise the property industry?
- Should we fear a Labour government?
- UK House Price Index (Feb.)
- Rental value growth holding up well
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.)
- Housing Starts (Mar.)
- German ZEW Survey (Apr.)
- Labour Market (Feb.)
- Employment (Feb.)
- Jump in debt-to-income ratios not yet a concern
- Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs
- Housing market remains muted
- Hong Kong interest rates to rise as liquidity tightens
- Where is the euro heading?
- Five more years of pain for Warsaw office rents
- Softer data probably won’t deter MPC
- Trade fears weigh on Swiss franc and Swedish krona
- Euro-zone Trade (Feb.)
- Housing woes to keep Bank on the side lines
- China Treasury holdings offer little leverage in trade spat
- Single-family rental growth will continue to outperform
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.)
- Commercial property investment (Mar.)
- Single-family starts stall despite tight market conditions
- Is Spanish inflation set to pick up?
- French, Italian & Dutch Industrial Production (Feb.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
- Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Will a lack of prime CBD stock boost Paris office rents?
- Rising interest rates, trade tensions loom over HK
- Halifax House Prices (Mar.)
- Should we worry about the softening in the surveys?
- Growth suffers weather-related dip
- No sign of a housing market revival
- International Trade (Feb.)
- Lending data add to evidence that growth has peaked
- Completions to take the edge off Milan rental growth
- Will Bitcoin keep moving with risky assets?
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.)
- Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.)
- Have regional office yields found a floor?
- Swedish Private Production (Feb.)
- Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.)
- Stockholm capital values set to slide from 2019
- How did the Nordic & Swiss economies fare in Q1?
- Decline in negative equity will support homebuilding
- How will Germany fare under its new Government?
- Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
- Economic strength keeps French fiscal reform on track
- Consumers relying on saving less
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.)
- German Flash CPI (Mar.)
- Will trade fears dent growth?
- High pricing to cool German investment market
- Lending to commercial property (Feb.)
- Q4 Quarterly National Accounts & Money and Credit
- Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
- Swiss KOF (Mar.)
- Could housebuilders be doing more?
- The impact of faster earnings growth on house prices
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar.)
- Has economic growth really slowed?
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)
- Is the long-term outlook really so bad?
- Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Mar.), Trade & PPI (Feb.)
- Ghana: Easing cycle continues
- Would a Five Star-League alliance really be that bad?
- UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Feb.)
- And now for some good news on world trade
- Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations
- New Home Sales (Feb.)
- How far and how fast will interest rates rise?
- Will commercial property lending pick up in 2018?
- Continued weakness on the high street
- SNB’s large-scale intervention era is drawing to a close
- FHFA House Prices (Jan.)
- MPC still on track for a May hike
- Retail Sales (Feb.)
- Housebuilding (Q4)
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.)
- Existing Home Sales (Feb.)
- Russia Activity Data (Feb.)
- Will productivity growth start to pick up?
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Mar.)
- When will Iceland drop its remaining capital controls?
- Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) & Public Finances (Feb.)
- Employment (Jan.)
- Total returns set to slow throughout the region
- Rental growth has peaked
- Tight markets support house price and rental growth
- Rice prices to come off the boil
- The outlook for bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics
- German ZEW Survey (Mar.)
- UK House Price Index (Jan.)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.)
- Euro-zone Trade (Jan.)
- Inflation outturns weak
- Negotiators set for a frantic weekend in Brussels
- The OBR is still too gloomy
- What is the ECB trying to tell us?
- Housing Starts (Feb.)
- Latest stress test won’t derail bank lending
- Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q4)
- MPC still on track for May hike
- Fiscal stimulus will prompt more monetary tightening
- What is the rise in the LIBOR-OIS spread really telling us?
- Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth
- Sri Lanka GDP (Q4)
- London Housing Chart Book: London market set for downturn
- Irish GDP (Q4)
- How strong is alternative property investment?
- Credit spreads likely to rise again before long
- SNB to lag ECB in policy normalisation
- S&P 500’s valuation is unlikely to cause its demise
- US equities not grossly overvalued, but still vulnerable
- Fed stepping up the pace of policy tightening
- Is a parallel currency the answer to Italy’s problems?
- Sell-off in gilts abates
- Labour shortages won’t prompt surge in wage growth
- Retail Sales (Feb.)
- Euro-zone Ind. Production (Jan.) & Employment (Q4)
- Commercial property investment (Feb.)
- Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- Spring Statement Response – Jam tomorrow
- Have London house prices reached a tipping point?
- UK Spring Statement 2018 Checklist
- Strong rental demand keeps vacancy rate in check
- Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.)
- EU guidelines pave the way for a “Canada-style” deal
- ECB QE has changed this year in more ways than one
- Severe weather won’t cool growth in Q1
- How big a deal is the new lower inflation target?
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.)
- Norway CPI (Feb) & Iceland GDP (Q4)
- German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jan.)
- Are interest rate rises in Switzerland in sight?
- Loosening bias gone, but tightening is some way off
- No sign of a revival in development activity
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.)
- A trade war against China would not be “easy to win”
- Central Bank of Iceland on hold for time being
- Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to struggle?
- Housing market settles after rate hike
- Mortgage Applications (Feb.)
- Consumer spending dampened by temporary factors
- Will the end of PPI pay-outs hit spending growth?
- Euro-zone GDP (Q4)
- Halifax House Prices (Feb.)
- German core inflation to rise only gradually
- Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall
- Retailer closures highlight sector’s woes
- Russia CPI (Feb.)
- Headwinds loom for Moscow office rents
- Recovery in PMIs eases fears of continued slowdown
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
- Swiss CPI (Feb.) & Swedish Production (Jan.)
- Trade spat not (yet) a big deal for global growth
- How worrying are Trump’s tariffs for the euro-zone?
- Low rental yields in the West not yet a risk for prices
- EZ Retail Sales (Jan.), PMIs (Feb.) & Greek GDP (Q4)
- Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Feb.)
- Turkey CPI (Feb.)
- After Italy’s election, what happens next?
- Declining tax competitiveness hurting investment
- Italian bond spreads could rise after the election
- Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising
- GDP (Q4 2017)
- Trump, tariffs and potential triggers
- Pain ahead for property developers
- Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small
- Turkey’s trade deficit signals a revival of past vulnerabilities
- EM manufacturing remains in good shape
- New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.)
- Have we seen the last of IT-driven gains in EM equities?
- Payrolls boosted by unwinding of weather distortion
- Brazil GDP (Q4)
- Putin 4.0 unlikely to step up to the economic challenge
- Bank of Japan unlikely to buy foreign bonds
- China PMIs diverge again
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)
- Are the good times over for Asian equities?
- Equity markets stabilise on state support
- Will rising bond yields undermine equities again?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Surge in Brazil’s stock market looks unsustainable
- Appetite for international bond sales remains strong
- Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now
- GDP (Q4)
- Monetary policy cycles nearing turning points
- Africa: US equity correction outweighs political drama
- Hong Kong to cool in 2018
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.)
- US Fed to tighten further than previously expected
- Looser fiscal policy means Treasury yields have further to rise
- What do higher US interest rates mean for the Gulf?
- Durable Goods (Jan.) & Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- Gloss comes off the EM recovery
- Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)
- Nigeria GDP (Q4 2017)
- Further slowdown of EM GDP growth
- Rising political risks shouldn’t derail recovery
- Political drama overshadows gradual recovery
- Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets
- President for life?
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.)
- Why Africa won’t be the next EM powerhouse
- Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso?
- Tunisia: will new central bank boss herald a policy shift?
- Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)
- Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way
- Local markets unable to escape global rout
- Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead
- Firing on all cylinders
- South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit
- Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
- Egypt: inflation to fall further and stay low
- Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking
- Nigeria: Rebound is underway
- Egyptian bond yields likely to fall further
- German ZEW Survey (Feb.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Russia Activity Data (Jan.)
- South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma?
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)
- Valuations of US equities still look high after correction
- Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.)
- CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017
- Saudi economy turning the corner
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
- Policy to remain loose under new BoJ leadership
- External vulnerabilities continue to diminish
- Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.)
- Picking apart the global equity sell-off
- Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018
- Philippines: Will manufacturing continue to outperform?
- Market turmoil won’t derail expansion
- Reserve Bank is right to turn more hawkish
- Rethinking the yen
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up
- No changes to Philippines policy rate in 2018
- EM credit spreads likely to rise further
- Russia CPI (Jan.)
- FX Reserves (Jan.)
- Egypt’s budget deficit to narrow further
- RBI turns more hawkish
- 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends
- Inflation on the rise
- Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency
- CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects
- Egypt’s gas sector experiencing a renaissance
- EM governments and the great bond sell-off
- Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA economy
- Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.)
- What will the ECB do about rising Bund yields?
- Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain
- Debate will soon turn to tightening
- BoJ underscores line in the sand
- EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels
- Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month
- Russia GDP (2017)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
- FY18/19 budget: fiscal deficit targets relaxed
- Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
- Does it make sense to rotate into equities out of bonds?
- Who’s afraid of a China slowdown?
- Equities and currencies make strong start to 2018
- Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early 2018
- Narrowing of Gulf interbank spreads has gone too far
- Taiwan GDP (Q4 Advanced)
- Strong start to 2018
- Rate hikes to be the exception rather than the norm
- EM GDP growth loses steam in Q4
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
- Are overvalued equities starting to lose their appeal?
- Saving rate going to zero…and that’s okay (probably)
- Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.)
- Infrastructure spending still a tough sell in Congress
- Region to mount a recovery
- EM inflation to drift higher
- Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports
- Flying start to the year for EM equities unlikely to last
- Foreign workers continue to ease labour shortages
- Getting back into gear
- What do high oil prices mean for Asia?
- It is all about the dollar
- Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices
- Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts?
- Will the Fed spoil the party?
- Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise
- GDP (Q4 1st Estimate)
- Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain
- Consumer Price Index (Dec.)
- Will the party last without the punchbowl?
- Cycle to turn in 2018
- Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure
- BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure
- New Home Sales (Dec.)
- Is the only way up for the euro?
- Russia Activity Data (Dec.)
- Growth stabilises at the end of 2017
- Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.)
- Revised TPP deal still good news for Asian members
- Qatar’s economy weathering diplomatic crisis
- Industry hits a sweet spot
- South Africa CPI (Dec.)
- What effect is Trump’s repatriation tax having on the markets?
- Trump still pulling his punches on China trade
- What do US tariffs mean for Asia?
- A strong end to 2017 (for most)
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.)
- Saudi recovery on the way – but relief to be short-lived
- Some positive news in late 2017
- What to make of Italy’s centre-right policy programme
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018
- Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & Nigeria
- Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.)
- Banxico: navigating choppy waters…
- Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
- EM markets off to a flyer, despite softer economic data
- Poland Activity Data (Dec.)
- CEE currencies: it’s the economy, stupid!
- Korea set for strong 2018, but not because of the Olympics
- Will strong global demand support China in 2018?
- Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018
- South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish language
- How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise?
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.)
- Further rate cuts in Indonesia likely by mid-year
- Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer
- Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going?
- GDP (Q4) & Activity & Spending (Dec.)
- What next for Brazil?
- South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4
- Growth to slow from a five-year high
- Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse
- Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound
- Quick thoughts on the recent jump in oil prices
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)
- Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy
- Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)
- How fast will the BoJ reduce its asset purchases?
- Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.)
- Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further
- Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year
- Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of EMs
- S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect
- PBOC’s hands are tied over US Treasury holdings
- The economic impact of rising oil prices
- Is the Bank of Japan about to raise its yield target?
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Will Vietnam’s export sector continue to outperform?
- Argentina fixing fiscal mess but wavering on inflation
- Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect
- Saudi bonuses to lift growth but raise fears over reform
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)
- Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.)
- Inflation set to jump
- Inflation set to accelerate again
- Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.)
- Growth in Brazil & Mexico probably picked up in Q4
- Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect
- Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran
- Price pressures strengthening again
- Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.)
- Foreigners aren’t to blame for high house prices
- GDP by Industry (Oct.)
- 2018 will be as good as it gets
- Durable Goods / Personal Income & Spending (Nov.)
- 2018: How can it all go wrong?
- A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework
- Dollar peg fears ease, but Lebanon remains vulnerable
- What to expect in 2018
- A stellar 2017, repeat in 2018 unlikely
- What could be done to lower private surpluses?
- Frontier economies to strengthen in 2018
- EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next?
- Saudi 2018 budget unveils modest fiscal loosening
- Hungarian MPC still dovish, but tide may be slowly turning
- A strong 2017 – but 2018 likely to be more challenging
- Another conundrum in the Treasury market
- EM inflation to rise in 2018
- Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.)
- ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses
- Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)
- Daesh downfall offers respite for smaller economies
- Russia’s mini-banking crisis rumbles on
- Just how overvalued is the US stock market now?
- Economy much cooler as year ends
- Will Portugal’s bonds outperform Italy’s again in 2018?
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Dec.)
- Philippines: tax reforms a welcome step
- A strong 2017 – but 2018 will be more challenging
- Sri Lanka GDP (Q3)
- What to make of the surge in producer prices?
- Piñera prevails but reform agenda will meet resistance
- Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect
- Who gains most from ECB corporate bond purchases?
- Rise in HK interest rates to weigh on property prices
- Strong year for EM exports, but 2018 set to be softer
- Pakistan: Where next for the rupee?
- Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018
- A mixed end to 2017
- What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget
- Monetary policy hasn’t lost its capacity to surprise
- Key calls for EMs in 2018
- Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets
- No rate hikes next year in the Philippines
- South Africa Current Account (Q3)
- Regional inflation bottoms out
- South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4
- Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again)
- What to expect from markets in 2018
- Surveys point to stronger wage pressures next year
- Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.)
- Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.)
- Saudi politics emerges as key economic risk
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.)
- Should we be concerned about German house prices?
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
- Is there any value left in German real estate?
- Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Weak infrastructure to remain a drag on growth prospects
- Has the unemployment rate reached a floor?
- What would an AMLO presidency mean for Mexico?
- What would US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt mean?
- Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Inflation to jump in early 2018
- South Africa Mining production
- Five key questions on the Saudi Aramco privatisation
- FX Reserves (Nov.)
- How worrying is the recent slide in the MSCI China Index?
- A guide to elections in 2018
- Will corporate tax hikes dent Korea’s competitiveness?
- South Africa: A guide to the ANC national conference
- US tax cuts bolster calls for China to follow suit
- RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening
- What to expect in 2018
- Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift
- Russia CPI (Nov.)
- Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.)
- More to Brazil FDI flows than meets the eye
- Rapid Czech wage growth to prompt more rate hikes
- EM manufacturing growth on the rise in Q4
- GDP (Q3 2017) & Labour Force Survey (Nov.)
- OPEC extends deal, Gulf signals comfort with $60pb oil
- Brazil GDP (Q3)
- Who will follow the Bank of Korea?
- Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI
- Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
- OPEC extends output cuts by another nine months
- Crackdown on online lending spooks markets
- Region holds its breath
- What would the fallout be from another slump in IT shares?
- S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light
- An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom
- Asian currencies make further gains against the dollar
- Chile’s equities collapse, but other assets resilient
- Qatar faces slow recovery from blockade hit
- Elections to shape challenges facing Diaz de León
- EM GDP growth ends Q3 on a high
- Bad news in Nigeria and South Africa
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
- Will rising US bond yields ride to the dollar’s rescue?
- German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.)
- Easing cycles still have a bit further to run
- Lending to commercial property (Oct.)
- Debunking three myths about EM credit
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- Some reasons for optimism on UK banks’ shares
- Sentiment towards metals diverges
- Low EM credit spreads may last a while longer
- Bank of Korea set to hike rates despite worries over won
- Would a faltering US stock market spark contagion?
- We find the dollar’s recent slide mystifying
- Saudi downturn probably gathered pace in Q3
- Will the Bank of Japan soon start to tighten?
- Political turmoil rocks frontiers
- Industrials on the march
- Would a setback for the US stock market be contagious?
- Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy
- Faster profit growth won’t spur investment
- South Africa: downgrade largely priced in
- Strong growth in CEE starts to raise eyebrows
- Growth rebounds, but inflation remains weak
- Growth slows
- Gulf dollar pegs well placed to weather geopolitical risks
- Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.)
- SARB takes further easing off the table
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.)
- GDP targets here to stay
- Growth to accelerate further in 2018
- More to EM rebound than trade
- Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation
- South Africa CPI (Oct.)
- Peru GDP (Q3)
- Hungary’s National Bank missing the bigger picture
- Turkish central bank struggles to curtail lira’s slide
- Growth rebounds, central banks turn more hawkish
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Is Tunisia repeating Egypt’s currency mistakes?
- EM inflation on the turn
- Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3)
- Five key points on Chile’s elections
- Markets shrug off ratings upgrade
- Nigeria GDP (Q3 2017)
- Brazil’s current account improvement unlikely to last
- We expect the rally in the dollar to resume before long
- Consumer Price Index (Oct.)
- A closer look at Lebanon’s FX debt burden
- Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet
- Recovery in Thailand unlikely to lead to policy tightening
- Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer
- Moody’s highlights positives, overlooks concerns
- Tax reform: what happens next?
- Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs
- Colombia GDP (Q3)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Retail Sales (Oct.)
- Turn in the cycle
- How important is Zimbabwe’s economy?
- South Africa’s recovery continued in Q3
- Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro?
- Commercial property investment (Oct.)
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
- Bahrain: peg to stay intact, but austerity to be stepped up
- Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2017)
- German GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.)
- Are the best days for risky assets really over?
- OPEC appears optimistic about oil market rebalancing
- Is the recent sell-off in the markets a sign of things to come?
- What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs?
- Russia GDP (Q3)
- Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Will Japan benefit from the TPP minus the US?
- Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits
- Will regional trade agreements boost growth?
- Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- Is the rise in US high-yield credit spreads a worrying sign?
- Recovery in business investment still has further to run
- Industrial Production (Sep.)
- China increasing foreign access but still stacking deck
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q3)
- French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.)
- Africa’s business environment: A look behind the numbers
- Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru
- Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’
- Saudi sabre-rattling hits markets
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Four charts on the latest oil price move
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.)
- South Africa: Output data held up in Q3
- How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look?
- Philippines likely to keep rates on hold throughout 2018
- Czech CPI (Oct.)
- Malaysia’s central bank turns hawkish
- Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn
- Five key questions on developments in Saudi Arabia
- Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat
- Argentine central bank has more work to do
- How free is Japan’s trade?
- Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft
- Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run
- Russia CPI (Oct.)
- Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount
- FX Reserves (Oct.)
- Halifax House Prices (Oct.)
- High core inflation unlikely to trigger tightening
- Romania’s external vulnerabilities building
- Venezuela could be in default by end of the week
- What to make of the Saudi anti-corruption drive
- Inflation to rise further
- Still too soon to sound the alarm
- Huge challenges to Venezuela’s debt restructuring
- What to expect from Trump’s Asia trip
- Brazil’s BNDES reform slips under the radar
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
- The Egyptian pound: one year on from the float
- Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year
- EM manufacturing growth eases in October
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift
- Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.)
- Raising our Korea growth and interest rate forecasts
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI
- Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
- US natural gas set to burn brighter in 2018
- Bank recapitalisation a rare success in faltering reforms
- Oil hits $60pb but Gulf markets continue to struggle
- Pollution crackdown set to drag on growth
- Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.)
- South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt markets
- Asian equities bounce back
- Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data?
- Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced)
- Kenya: A look at the balance sheet
- Rise in government bond yields unlikely to last
- Pushing down our BRL forecasts
- EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August
- Further downside for the Turkish lira
- What does oil at $60pb mean for the Gulf?
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.)
- “Global QE” to slow only gradually
- Home ownership rate could tumble
- Strong US GDP growth bolsters case for Fed tightening
- Fed to raise rates faster in 2018, no matter who’s Chair
- GDP (Q3 1st Estimate)
- Policy normalisation underway
- ECB’s reduction in QE to have limited market impact
- Payrolls set to come storming back from hurricanes
- China and India gold imports (Sep.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Bank of Canada on hold for rest of this year
- Can the ECB pull off a dovish taper?
- FOMC meeting could clash with Chair announcement
- Durable Goods (Sep.)
- Rise in coal imports likely to be temporary
- Canadian dollar likely to drop further next year
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)
- World trade strengthens while NAFTA talks sour
- Flash PMIs (Oct.)
- Will the US yield curve continue to flatten?
- EM assets likely to weather the withdrawal of QE
- Neom: is Saudi Arabia about to repeat past mistakes?
- Are investors right to be taking events in Catalonia in their stride?
- Global Steel Production (Sep.)
- Over to you, President Macri
- Growth peaking
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep. & Q3)
- Stage set for a pick-up in wage and investment growth
- Will EM sovereign bonds continue to outperform Treasuries?
- LNG rally may run out of steam
- Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target
- Oil market showing more signs of tightening
- Growth set to slow, interest rates to remain low
- Three quick points on the IMF’s latest projections
- Pullback in EM currencies probably not a sign of things to come
- India’s gold demand to remain soft
- Lack of affordable homes for sale hits first-time buyers
- Is a boost from tax reform already discounted in the S&P 500?
- Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market?
- Does the rally in alumina prices have legs?
- What are auto sales telling us about metals demand?
- Tougher mortgage rules will only make matters worse
- Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
- What to watch for in upcoming elections
- Policy outlook should limit sterling’s slide
- International Trade (Aug.)
- International Merchandise Trade (Aug.)
- Motoring along
- ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep.)
- Record low inventory constrains sales and lifts prices
- Are investors right to be very bearish on Treasuries this time?
- Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
- Prime-age participation has further to rise
- Valuations of EM equities don’t look stretched
- Healthy economic growth is buoying global equities
- CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)
- Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
- Rally in oil starting to burn out
- Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
- ISM Manufacturing (Sep.)
- Government should tread carefully on tax policy
- Are markets right to shrug off political events in Catalonia?
- Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth
- No clear signal from China’s PMIs
- Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.)
- Global QE to remain positive for a while yet
- Pull-back in EM equities and currencies unlikely to last
- Aerospace dispute raises spectre of trade war
- Monetary policy outlook shouldn’t weigh too heavily on the euro
- Platinum-to-palladium spread turns negative, for now
- Are concerns about labour shortages justified?
- Improving outlook for secondary assets in Netherlands
- GDP by Industry (Jul.)
- Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation
- Would Macron’s plan for fiscal union work?
- Is the surge in oil prices sustainable?
- Lending to commercial property (Aug.)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.)
- Mortgage Lending/Nationwide House Prices (Aug/Sep)
- Swiss KOF (Sep.) & Danish GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence
- Latest pull-back in EM equities should prove temporary
- Oil demand rises as global economy strengthens
- Hurricanes will batter payroll figures
- Fed normalisation not a game changer
- Trump’s tax plan could be bad news for Treasuries
- Durable Goods (Aug.)
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
- Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.)
- Recent falls in EM currencies unlikely to be the start of a trend
- What to make of the recent jump in oil prices
- China and India gold imports (Aug.)
- World trade faring well in H2
- Household debt to weigh on economic growth
- Markets weather German election, but political risk lingers
- Turkish equities tumble amid Kurdish referendum fears
- Household indebtedness highest among G7
- Economic strength should continue to support the euro
- Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.)
- Consumer Price Index (Aug.)
- What can the Baltic Dry Index tell us?
- Global Steel Production (Aug.)
- Will risky assets continue to shrug off the Fed?
- Lower interest rates underpin higher asset valuations
- Lower longer-run interest rates underpin higher asset valuations
- Fed undeterred by weak core inflation
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Existing Home Sales (Aug.)
- How will Treasury yields react to the Fed?
- Global Aluminium Production
- China Metal Output Monitor
- Will new Chinese crude contracts be a game-changer?
- Should we expect the rise in coal prices to continue?
- Another reason to worry about risky asset valuations?
- Housing Starts (Aug.)
- Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
- Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects
- Core inflation showing signs of resurgence
- Stock data at odds with prices
- As good as it gets for US equities?
- Profit-taking evident in metals
- Some new market forecasts
- How vulnerable are EM corporate bonds?
- At least income inequality isn’t getting worse
- How much further will Gilt yields rise?
- Rebound in median income a welcome improvement
- Retail Sales & IP (Aug.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Sep.)
- How far will the global tightening cycle go?
- Home valuations are not at dangerous levels
- Will the MPC walk the walk in November?
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.)
- How vulnerable is the FTSE 100 to tighter UK monetary policy?
- Canadian dollar likely to tumble next year
- Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Kuwait: strong balance sheet, but weak growth
- Investor buying boosts metals prices
- Markets bracing for another interest rate hike
- Higher inflation remains elusive
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- More bad news for grains & soybeans prices
- What next for currencies, bonds and equities?
- Some revisions to our key market forecasts
- Fed now likely to stand pat until next year
- OPEC open to extending output deal
- Employment (Jul.)
- Hurricanes and housing market activity
- NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last
- Lower OPEC production likely to be temporary
- What’s behind the surge in the MSCI China Index?
- Commercial property investment (Aug.)
- UK House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics (Q2)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Capital values still climbing this year and next
- ECB draws nearer to turning off the stimulus tap
- What next for the ailing US dollar?
- What’s going on with West End office rents?
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- How much Fed tightening is really priced into markets?
- Labour Force Survey (Aug.)
- Will Harvey lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies?
- Stopgap debt ceiling deal makes the Fed’s job harder
- Investors’ support for palladium to fade
- China’s ore imports continue to rise
- What do the hurricanes mean for commodities?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Draghi gives the euro another boost
- Halifax House Prices (Aug.)
- Bank of Canada taking a big gamble on rate hikes
- Harvey & Irma potential costs begin to mount
- World economy resilient despite geopolitical tensions
- How long will EM credit spreads remain so low?
- Hurricane Harvey to depress US oil demand
- Pessimism about sterling’s prospects overdone
- Will Draghi talk the euro down?
- Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug.)
- International Merchandise Trade (Jul.)
- Mortgage Applications (Aug.)
- Is Italy no longer a risk?
- Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.)
- Drop in mortgage rates fails to boost activity
- Chinese growth pushes up energy commodities
- Will the end of summer breathe new life into the markets?
- Still cautious on copper …
- CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
- Swiss GDP (Q2) & Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Six key questions and answers about North Korea
- Metals on a tear, for now
- North Korea crisis to have limited impact on safe havens
- Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test
- Signs of a floor for mortgage approvals and sales
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.)
- Nigeria & South Africa: Key economies bounced back in Q2
- Can Trump hit the 3% growth target after all?
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- GDP growth bound to slow after blazing pace in H1
- ISM Manufacturing (Aug.)
- Treasury yields likely to rise despite underwhelming payrolls
- China data support metals rally
- Employment Report (Aug.)
- Increasing focus on high streets boosts prime rents in Lisbon
- Trump and China boost metals prices
- China’s PMIs point to strong industrial output in August
- How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary policy?
- Gold to benefit from high geopolitical risks
- The renminbi’s rally has much further to run
- GDP (Q2 2017)
- Household finances quite strong, despite low savings rates
- Subdued new home sales are not holding back starts
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)
- Tightness in tin to persist
- Fed to begin reversing QE and ECB to set out taper plans
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Don’t rule out an interest rate hike next week
- Japanese yen still likely to weaken
- Lending to commercial property (Jul.)
- Mortgage Lending (Jul.)
- Hurricane Harvey will have little impact on national economy
- Brent-WTI spread likely to narrow
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
- ECB may try to temper euro’s rise before long
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.)
- Capital value growth out of the red
- Nationwide House Prices (Aug.)
- Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump
- Metals on a roll
- Yellen soothes markets, but could ruffle Trump
- London Housing Chart Book: London’s stagnation set to continue
- Household debt not a concern
- Durable Goods (Jul.)
- Brazil privatisation plans give stocks an extra boost
- Households still living the high life
- Trade momentum still strong, despite Trump
- Exports to continue supporting regional growth
- Angola: New president, same problems
- Softer demand isn’t a disaster for German office rents
- Worsening affordability not to blame for subdued home sales
- Existing Home Sales (Jul.)
- We don’t think that the rally in US Treasuries will last
- Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy?
- Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects
- China and India gold imports (Jul.)
- UK Finance Mortgage Lending & Housebuilding (Jul./Q2)
- How big a threat to EM assets is the scaling back of QE?
- Investors exaggerate move in metals prices
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- New Home Sales (Jul.)
- What should we read into the poor performance of US small-caps?
- Flash PMIs (Aug.)
- Consumer confidence still resilient
- No shortage of tin now!
- Growing supply will limit any gains in oil prices this year
- Should EM investors fear the scaling back of QE?
- New industrial supply will keep prime rents in Czech
- Dollar’s decline to boost exports
- What are the implications of geopolitical risk for commodities?
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.)
- We forecast a rebound in the German DAX
- Germany’s stock market unlikely to keep on falling
- North Korea sanctions should not have much market impact
- Is it Amazon’s fault that the Fed can’t hit its inflation target?
- Speculators give a boost to industrial metals prices
- Canada will be up against it in NAFTA talks
- Industrial sector drops into overvalued territory
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
- Respite for S&P 500 unlikely to be a lull in a storm
- Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Drop in multifamily starts will support rental growth
- Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
- What is the Taylor Rule telling us?
- Fed, not China’s demand, to remain key driver of Treasuries
- Brent backwardation should help to reduce oil stocks
- Credit conditions set to remain supportive
- Renewed Chinese buying unlikely to keep Treasury yields down
- Withdrawals to support a tighter Madrid office market
- Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
- Are house prices in prime central London outperforming?
- Next recession only a few years away
- Commodities weather the storm
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Toronto housing market down and out
- Will globally-focused US firms’ shares continue to outperform?
- Housing Starts (Jul.)
- Do valuations point to a re-run of 2007?
- Recent rise unlikely to mark the start of a surge in spreads
- Employment (Jun.)
- Investors still hungry for EM dollar bonds
- Retail Sales (Jul.)
- Iron ore’s last hurrah?
- UK House Price Index (Jun.) and UK Finance Lending Trends (Q2)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Finnish GDP (Q2)
- German GDP (Q2)
- What should we make of the rebound in US credit spreads?
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.)
- Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Commercial property investment (Jul.)
- Slower rental growth and yield shift in Q2
- Capital value growth hit by limited yield falls
- When will core inflation pick up?
- Rising geopolitical tension takes its toll on prices
- Will low inflation continue to support US bonds and equities?
- Supply shortage doesn’t explain high housing valuations
- What does the North Korean crisis mean for gold prices?
- Productivity growth likely to remain muted
- Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Markets appear surprised by bearish WASDE data
- Will North Korea tensions continue to weigh on US equities?
- Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back
- Will the surge in EM Asian equities soon be over?
- Zinc rally to fade towards year-end
- Rising OPEC production puts market rebalancing at risk
- Have capital values peaked or plateaued?
- South Africa: Output data point to Q2 recovery
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)
- Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Vienna retail rents could fall further in real terms
- How big a deal is US-North Korea sabre-rattling for markets?
- Are similarities with 2007 a cause for concern?
- Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb?
- NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment
- Is another crisis coming, a decade after the last one began?
- Homeowner vacancy rate falls to 17-year low
- Slowdown shows no signs of easing
- Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports
- Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.)
- Will low inflation keep US Treasury yields anchored?
- Halifax House Prices (Jul.)
- Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown
- Dollar unlikely to recoup a lot more lost ground
- Labour Force Survey (Jul.)
- Should we be worrying about consumers?
- Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.)
- How strong is demand for coal, really?
- Steady first half cloaks the positive truth for Paris offices
- Strong growth continues at start of Q3…
- Are high asset valuations here to stay?
- Q2 & H1 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends
- Is remortgaging set to surge?
- Rational exuberance
- Oil prices lead the way up
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Metals start Q3 on a strong note
- Outlook for UK monetary policy points to higher Gilt yields
- Investors focus on prime property in Italy
- Mortgage Applications (Jul.)
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
- ISM Manufacturing (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.)
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.)
- Can the euro hold on to its gains?
- A weaker US dollar boosts commodities
- CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
- China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture
- Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Preliminary Flash)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
- Nationwide House Prices (Jul.)
- Swedish & Norwegian Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)
- When will the rout in the dollar end?
- Swedish political scandal lowers chance of tax hikes
- What can inventory tell us about state-level house prices?
- Mortgage Lending (Jun.)
- Lending to commercial property (Jun.)
- Is the corporate bond market being stifled?
- Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy
- Fed in wait-and-see mode until December
- Oil and copper lead the way
- Technology sector sell-off little cause for alarm
- GDP (Q2 1st Estimate)
- GDP by Industry (May)
- What if the euro keeps on rising?
- Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months
- German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jul.)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.)
- Swedish GDP (Q2) & Swiss KOF (Jul.)
- Logicor sale distorts strength of Q2 European investment
- Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2)
- Stocks of most metals edge lower
- Policy outlook bodes well for EM local currency bonds
- Strong payrolls will keep unemployment rate on downward trend
- Durable Goods (Jun.)
- Strong export demand to support US natural gas prices
- Mixed performances for Nordic and Swiss currencies
- RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2)
- China and India’s gold imports (Jun.)
- Lower global inflation will not prevent policy “normalisation”
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)
- Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- New Home Sales (Jun.)
- Will the Fed give the dollar a lift?
- UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jun.)
- Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2)
- World trade rebound in May bodes well for Q2
- Brussels prime office rental prospects looking brighter
- China’s metals imports point to strong demand so far in 2017
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
- What next for EM equities and sovereign bonds?
- Department store yield gap unlikely to fall further
- Case-Shiller House Prices (May)
- Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now
- Second half of the year bodes well for coffee
- Will US corporate credit spreads stay low?
- All good, for now
- Existing Home Sales (Jun.)
- Flash PMIs (Jul.)
- Healthy global growth to continue supporting equities for now
- Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end
- What accounts for the euro’s latest surge?
- The weaker dollar bolsters commodities
- Consumer Prices (Jun.)
- Weakness in core inflation will persist until next year
- Can the East Midlands continue to outperform?
- Will EM equities’ rapid ascent continue?
- Secondary Copenhagen offices offer improving return prospects
- Office leasing picks up
- Bank Indonesia to remain in neutral for a while
- Will the ECB baulk at euro’s continued rise?
- Is the Fed nearly done raising interest rates?
- RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2)
- Four key risks facing the oil market
- Non-residents buy more homes despite strong dollar
- Global Steel Production (Jun.)
- What does the health care debacle mean for tax reform?
- Global Aluminium Production (Jun.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Vancouver housing remains in the doldrums
- Are bond “bubbles” bursting?
- Tweaking our forecasts for the Fed, Treasuries and the dollar
- Housing Starts (Jun.)
- Manufacturing Sales (May)
- Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December
- Strong growth, weak inflation
- Will EM equity markets continue to soar?
- Government intervention in the coal market could backfire
- What is behind rising German industrial take-up?
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jun.)
- UK House Price Index (May.)
- Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased
- Calm in EM equity markets doesn’t mean a storm must follow
- Peru Economic Activity (May)
- What can past tightening cycles tell us about Fed policy?
- Will euro-zone peripheral bonds shrug off ECB tapering?
- All good, for now …
- Cautious appraisals holding down house price growth
- What next for euro-zone sovereign credit spreads?
- Are opportunistic investors calling time on the cycle?
- Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.)
- One more interest rate hike at most this year
- Consumer Prices (Jun.)
- Cheers for silver on hold
- Interest rates to fall further than most expect in Chile & Peru
- Will others follow the Bank of Canada?
- Yen’s rebound is likely to be short-lived
- Housing market outlook is subdued
- Is industrial rental growth due an upgrade?
- South Africa’s Mine Production (May)
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2)
- Persistent strength in China’s commodity imports
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Athens property still not without headwinds
- Bank of Canada gambles on rate hike
- Drop in housing starts not helping low inventory
- What next for the loonie?
- It is hard to be positive on nickel
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.)
- OPEC output surges again
- Commercial property investment (Jun.)
- Employment (May)
- Is Germany’s surplus a global problem?
- Are US equities actually undervalued?
- Balance sheet policy unlikely to seal Treasuries’ fate
- What is the Fed “model” telling us twenty years on?
- How stretched is the valuation of emerging market equities?
- Still waiting for stronger wage pressures
- The focus will be on US policy
- Is there actually a bubble in government bonds?
- Labour Force Survey (Jun.)
- Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target
- Employment Report (June)
- Distressed sales are still distorting house prices
- Halifax House Prices (Jun.)
- Investors moving up the risk curve in Sweden
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- How tight is the cobalt market really?
- When and how fast will the MPC tighten?
- What do advances in vehicle technology mean for oil demand?
- G20 summit unlikely to move the markets
- Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.)
- International Merchandise Trade (May)
- Mortgage Applications (Jun.)
- CoreLogic House Prices (May)
- Is the manufacturing sector heading for another downturn?
- EM local currency bonds should remain resilient
- Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy
- Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.)
- Swedish Industrial & Services Production (May) & Serv. PMI (Jun.)
- Have oil prices bottomed out?
- Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation?
- Should we worry about low EM credit spreads?
- Will EM equities continue to set the pace?
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (June)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.)
- No sign of anxiety about the economy in the credit market
- Some strength at end-Q2
- How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM output?
- Bank can’t ignore low inflation
- Equities, renminbi rise on state intervention
- Politics rocks the Gulf
- National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
- Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jun.)
- German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (May)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)
- Is monetary policy bound to support the ailing US dollar?
- Will the euro continue to climb?
- Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem?
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
- Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.)
- Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns
- German Ifo Survey (Jun.)
- World trade still doing well in Q2
- Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual
- 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong
- Brexit Watch: One year on
- Europe enters Brexit talks on a strong footing
- Is the rift between MPC members growing?
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.)
- Signs of normalisation in the investment market
- Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.)
- Will Portugal continue to outperform Italy?
- Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes
- Public Finances (May)
- Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Jun)
- Little scope for German spending boost from lower savings
- Global Aluminium Production (May)
- Swedish & Finnish Labour Force Surveys (May)
- Markets unperturbed by political and interest rate risks
- Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy
- Decent Q1 for most and surveys bode well for Q2
- Is the US stock market bound to hit the skids?
- Brexit Watch: Government makes a few Brexit concessions
- The losing streak continues
- Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support
- MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet
- Russia: CBR governor strikes cautious note
- Greek crisis averted for another year
- Is austerity over?
- What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone?
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
- Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland
- Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Apr.) & Employment (Q1)
- Labour Market (Apr.)
- Activity & Spending (May)
- Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.)
- What do political developments mean for Italy’s economy?
- Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy
- Will political uncertainty weigh on the economy?
- Political uncertainty clouds the outlook for policy
- Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.)
- French Industrial Production & German Trade (Apr.)
- What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.)
- Brexit Watch: “Softer” Brexit now more likely, but risks remain
- Hung Parliament: what happens now?
- Norwegian Consumer Prices (May)
- SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise
- Icelandic rates to remain on hold for now
- ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect
- A guide to election night
- Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q1)
- German Industrial Production & French Trade (Apr.)
- Spanish banks unlikely to hold back recovery
- Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports
- Mortgage Applications (May.)
- The outlook for Nordic and Swiss equities
- Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Apr.)
- Precious metals outperform
- Low savings rate limits prospects for Spanish spending
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
- Parliamentary majority will aid Macron’s reform efforts
- Markets bank on comfortable Conservative win
- How stretched are the valuations of EM equities?
- Is the US leaving the Paris Agreement significant?
- ECB to tweak its forward guidance
- Election 2017 Preview
- What’s behind the turnaround in Finland?
- Manufacturing PMIs (May)
- Italian GDP Breakdown (Q1)
- Swiss & Finnish GDP (Q1)
- Asian equities continue strong run
- Currencies rise against dollar while bond yields decline
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
- Danish GDP (Q1)
- German & Spanish Flash CPI (May)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (May)
- Swedish GDP (Q1), Retail Sales (Apr) & Swiss KOF (May)
- PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash
- Will growth rebound?
- Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data?
- OPEC deal should allow Gulf to ease austerity further
- Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength
- Is the recovery in construction built on strong foundations?
- Rents and capital values see modest rise
- Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further
- GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1)
- Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again
- Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q1)
- Will the ECB tighten prematurely again?
- Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (May)
- Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Public Finances (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (May)
- Swedish Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
- Portugal out of the EDP, but not out of the woods
- Brexit Watch: Manifestos expose subtle differences on Brexit
- Do voters have a real fiscal choice this time?
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution
- Macron’s cross-party cabinet confirms focus on reform
- Spending growth holding up despite real pay squeeze
- Retail Sales (Apr.)
- Will the euro-zone’s revival be sustained?
- Early elections in Austria revive eurosceptic threat
- When will the FTSE’s Brexit rally end?
- How much slack is there in the euro-zone labour market?
- Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet
- Labour Market (Mar.)
- Is the euro-zone about to boost the global economy?
- Labour would ease the fiscal squeeze significantly
- Change in Riksbank target unlikely to shift policy yet
- Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar.) & German ZEW (May)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.)
- Italian GDP (Q1) & Dutch GDP (Q1)
- Norwegian GDP (Q1) & Finnish GDP (Q1)
- Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure
- Are risky asset prices set to tumble?
- Is the housing market heading for a major downturn?
- Back to business for the ECB?
- Riksbank loosens while Norges Bank stands pat
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.)
- German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.)
- South Africa: Industrial sectors held up in Q1
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.)
- Icelandic rate cut on the cards
- Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack
- What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK?
- Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year
- Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- Will consumers remain confident enough to keep on spending?
- What does Moon’s victory mean for South Korea?
- Will Italy be the next domino not to fall?
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.)
- German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.)
- World economy can cope with slowdown in China
- Gulf economies better placed to deal with low oil prices
- Macron victory provides relief but challenges remain
- Brexit Watch: Public spat shows compromise won’t be easy
- Housing boom turning to bust
- Will Macron galvanise the French economy?
- 1992 or 2008? Updated
- Q1 slowdown to keep MPC hawks at bay
- Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Mar.)
- A rising tide lifts all boats
- Macron’s labour reforms now look more achievable
- Q1 slowdown should prove temporary
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.)
- Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) & H’hold Borrowing (Mar.)
- Norges Bank stands pat, but a rate cut not far off
- Nordic & Swiss currencies to rebound from April’s falls
- Investment rises, but concerns about pricing grow
- Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel
- Has Marine Le Pen gone soft on “Frexit”?
- Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prel. Flash) & PPI (Mar.)
- Should we be worried about the GDP slowdown?
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)
- Focus turns to debt relief measures for Greece
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.), Final Man. PMI (Apr.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
- Norges Bank to continue signalling possible rate cut
- Vienna office capital values close to peaking
- ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June
- German & Spanish CPI (Apr.)
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.)
- Riksbank dissenters fail to prevent QE extension
- Macron can’t rely on National Assembly support for reforms
- Strength in nominal spending offers some comfort
- Household sector still boosting economy
- Renminbi may be approaching a turning point
- Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Apr.)
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
- Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.)
- China’s metals imports likely to remain subdued
- Will retailers and restaurants drag the economy under?
- China and India’s gold imports (Mar.)
- Public Finances (Mar.)
- Saudi benefit cut U-turn not a major cause for alarm
- Global Steel Production (Mar.)
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2)
- German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
- Macron-Le Pen run-off raises hopes for French revival
- Brexit Watch: Markets give snap election the thumbs up
- Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge
- Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
- Key questions about the French election
- Will Mr Hammond now “reset” fiscal policy?
- Spending slowdown underway
- Is the pound set for a pre-Brexit rally?
- Retail Sales (Mar.)
- Still no hints of policy tightening
- Household credit boom set to slow
- Riksbank to signal end of asset purchases
- Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference?
- Has Theresa May gone to the polls just in time?
- Outlook has brightened despite political risk
- Have inflation worries gone for good?
- Sterling welcomes May’s election call
- EM credit divergences should soon start to narrow
- Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) & Inflation (Final, Mar.)
- Snap election won’t derail the economy
- Labour Market (Feb.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Surveys point to diminishing labour market slack
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- A rising tide
- Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & German ZEW (Apr.)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
- Into the unknown
- Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Brexit Watch: May softens stance on immigration
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.)
- How much did growth slow in Q1?
- What does the US strike on Syria mean for commodities?
- ECB tightening is still a distant prospect
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.)
- German & French Industrial Production (Feb.)
- North Korea to distract from trade at Trump-Xi Summit
- Growth slower but still solid in Q1
- Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy?
- Are investors right to look past Spanish property?
- Economy going strong, but core inflation weak
- Economy’s resilience points to earlier rise in interest rates
- Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Mar.)
- Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Feb.)
- US Treasury yields and the dollar likely to peak next year
- CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.)
- EM manufacturing ends Q1 on a strong note
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Unemployment & PPI (Feb.), Final Man. PMI (Mar.)
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
- Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland
- Brexit Watch: Constructive tone to first exchanges
- Are consumers’ finances healthy as Brexit begins?
- Consumer spending relying on less saving
- Euro-zone growth to beat consensus this year
- National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.)
- Ger. & Spa. Retail Sales, French Cons. Spending (Feb.)
- Helsinki valuations still stack up despite yield falls
- German, Spanish & Belgian Flash CPI (Mar.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.)
- Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.)
- Key questions following the triggering of Article 50
- Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery?
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.)
- Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Mar.)
- Out of the woods?
- The MPC’s sterling conundrum
- Swedish Retail Sales, Trade and PPI (Feb.)
- Can the ECB break its forward guidance?
- German Ifo Survey (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)
- Can the Treasury-gilt gap widen further?
- Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year
- Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2
- Key EM central banks set to loosen policy despite Fed hike
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.)
- What is the state of play as election season kicks off?
- Is the MPC right to turn hawkish?
- Rate setters give markets pause for thought
- Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing
- MPC strikes a more hawkish tone
- Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years
- SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue
- Dutch ado about nothing?
- Peru Economic Activity (Jan.)
- Premier Li signals lower emphasis on growth
- Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe?
- Labour Market (Jan.)
- Icelandic interest rates still set to be cut later this year
- Will Article 50 trigger Brexit pain?
- What to make of the renewed bid for Scottish Independence
- OPEC production falls as compliance improves
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Jan.)
- Are things finally looking up for Portugal?
- Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jan.) & German ZEW (Mar.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls
- Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost
- Turkey Current Account (Jan.)
- Brexit Watch: Article 50 notification set for end of the month
- Labour Force Survey (Feb.)
- Did the Chancellor ease back on the fiscal squeeze?
- Soaring copper stocks reflect waning investor optimism
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- Will the ECB change course if growth stays strong?
- PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening
- Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.)
- Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies
- Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- Spring Budget does little to change consumer outlook
- Inflation rise won’t stop SNB fighting strong franc
- ECB committed to loose policy despite healthy growth
- Softer data to keep the hawks at bay
- Should we believe the upbeat French business surveys?
- Icelandic rates to be cut soon despite strong economy
- Spring Budget 2017: OBR ties Hammond’s hands
- Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions
- Chancellor offers little further help on business rates
- German & Spanish Industrial Production, French Trade (Jan.)
- Swiss Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- UK Budget Checklist
- Pound’s latest drop not a sign of Brexit panic
- Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports
- Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q4)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.)
- Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.)
- Recent fall in gilt yields could prove short lived
- Greece GDP (Q4)
- S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last
- Taking stock of the latest business surveys
- Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation?
- EM manufacturing still going strong
- Peru: 2016 likely to be as good as it gets for the economy
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)
- Fed & EMs: Nothing to see here…
- Are high valuations the harbinger of a collapse in asset prices?
- Lending to commercial property (Jan.)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)
- Deeper capacity cuts needed to avert protracted slowdown
- Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.)
- Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside?
- The relief rally in US Treasuries is unlikely to last much longer
- Stocks rise, currencies and bond yields steady
- New (non-consensus) forecasts for Brazil
- January’s inflation jump unlikely to last
- GDP (Q4)
- Steady stream of Gulf dollar bond sales continues
- Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)
- Capital values up for fourth month
- Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US…
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- What next for Russia’s economy?
- Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet
- EM growth hits three-year high, but may be about to peak
- Tunisia’s economy set for a slow recovery in 2017-18
- Brazilian interest rates to continue falling sharply
- Colombia GDP (Q4)
- New trade balance calculation would make little sense
- A strong start to the year
- South Africa’s fiscal squeeze continues
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.)
- Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
- Russia Activity Data (Jan.)
- Core inflation rises to highest rate since 2014
- Flash PMIs (Feb.)
- PMIs suggest near-term outlook for equities remains favourable
- What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us?
- Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017
- Is QE about to go into reverse?
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Africa: New data spring nasty surprises in Angola & Ghana
- Sterling not shaken by Article 50 vote
- Will US equities shrug off a renewed rise in Treasury yields?
- Gulf’s non-oil sectors show signs of recovery
- Bond yields jump after RBI surprises markets
- Have Paris retail rents reached a plateau?
- Commodities consolidate
- Property yield gaps squeezed by rising bond yields
- Euro’s resilience may not last much longer
- Move-up buyers inflating housing bubble
- Business sentiment surges in aftermath of Trump win
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.)
- London’s employment prospects healthy
- Faster nominal GDP growth helping to bring down debt ratios
- Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake?
- One year on from the oil slump
- Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike
- Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained
- Stocks continue to build in China
- Will equity markets continue welcoming a more hawkish Fed?
- Housing Starts (Jan.)
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
- Does the rally in the ruble have further to run?
- Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change this year
- President Trump has little power over currency markets
- Angola: New GDP figures raise fresh debt worries
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Consumers unruffled by fluctuations in wider economy
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)
- What next for UK gilt yields?
- Manufacturing Sales (Dec.)
- Consumer Prices, Retail Sales & Ind. Prod’n (Jan.)
- Rise in Dublin industrial rents not finished yet
- South Africa: Economy stagnated in Q4
- Why are we so negative on the outlook for iron ore prices?
- Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities?
- Chile pauses easing cycle, but more rate cuts to come
- South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally?
- Investors still in love with commodities
- Yellen again stresses fiscal uncertainty
- Fed likely to raise rates more than expected, but not before June
- Shrinking spare capacity no reason for complacency
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
- Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016)
- Saudi: OPEC deal a short-term gain, but unlikely to be renewed
- Nigeria over the worst, but recovery will be slow
- Poland CPI (Jan.)
- Brazil: promising noises on trade, but structural hurdles persist
- Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Strong start to the year for big EM exporters
- China’s worries over Trump fade
- Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.)
- Industrial Production (Dec.)
- Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes
- French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.)
- Czech CPI (Jan.)
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Qatar’s credit boom comes to an end, lending growth to stay weak
- South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.)
- RBI is right to turn less dovish
- Philippines to keep rates on hold throughout 2017
- Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown
- South African consumer spending set to remain weak
- Algeria’s economy to slump in 2017
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- RBI brings loosening cycle to an end
- Romanian rates to rise further than many expect
- Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem
- Russia CPI (Jan.)
- Global growth picking up
- Mixed news for commodity markets
- Metals prices start the year on a strong note
- What use are the new “future output” PMIs?
- Fed likely to stand pat until June
- Will commodities continue to underpin EM equities?
- GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty
- Employment Report (Jan.)
- Are investors being complacent?
- China and India’s gold demand to remain subdued in 2017
- Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards
- Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip
- Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance
- Could housing be the weak link in 2017?
- Trump, China and the world in 2017
- Iran now in Trump’s sights
- Oil prices have a quiet start to 2017
- The real question for Mexico is: why have Nafta gains been so small?
- Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon
- How do Lat Am central banks set policy?
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI & RICS Construction (Jan/Q4)
- Stocks were on the move in January
- What will Fed tightening mean for EM dollar bonds?
- Steady labour market recovery continues
- Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
- Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule
- Mortgage Applications (Jan.)
- Russia GDP (2016)
- Paris offices rental growth to disappoint in 2017
- Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.)
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.)
- Nationwide House Prices (Jan.)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
- Markets eye up interest rate hike in 2018
- Big frontiers eye up more international bond sales
- Are markets right to be taking President Trump in their stride?
- Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.)
- Signs of life in Brazil and Russia
- Asian financial markets make good start to 2017
- Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs
- Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start
- Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls
- Is Turkey really now a high-investment economy?
- France GDP (Q4, 1st est.) & CPI (Jan., Prov.)
- Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon
- No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets
- Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.)
- Fuel to push up inflation in most, but not all, EMs
- Base effects hold down wage growth
- Investors give Egypt the thumbs up
- Egypt: will the government’s fiscal reforms be enough?
- Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016
- Sweden (Dec.) & Norway (Nov.) Labour Market Data
- BoJ poised to scale back bond purchases
- Mexico and the renegotiation of NAFTA: five key points
- Russia Activity Data (Dec.)
- EM central banks unfazed by strong dollar
- Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.)
- Growth surges to fastest in over three years
- Turkey’s tightening cycle has further to run
- How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to Asia?
- Focus turns to policy tightening
- MENA sovereigns line up dollar bond sales
- Signs of strength in labour market
- Few EMs at risk from a major drop in US FDI
- Has the Bank of Japan finished easing?
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Service sector ends 2016 on a strong note
- Venezuela’s 2016 meltdown among the worst on record
- How will the markets fare under Trump?
- What to watch for in Trump’s first 100 days
- Trumped up?
- How will markets deal with President Trump?
- Little reaction to Mozambique’s missed bond payment
- What will a Trump presidency mean for Asia?
- Near-term recovery for EM export growth, but threats ahead
- Czech koruna: when will cap be lifted and how far will CZK rise?
- Saudi economy picking up at end of 2016, but set to slow in 2017
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.)
- South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started
- Bank Indonesia to keep interest rates unchanged this year
- Key takeaways from the IMF’s Staff Report on Egypt
- Business investment set to recover
- Saudi balance of payments position to continue to improve
- South Africa: retail spending a bright spot, but economy weak
- Employment (Nov.)
- What to expect from Brazil’s economy in 2017
- We don’t expect the yen’s resurgence to last
- No float for the renminbi
- Vietnam complacent over credit risks
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.)
- Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1
- Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to firm
- Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar?
- Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up
- Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)
- Argentina: new economic team, same challenges
- South Africa: Manufacturing sector shows signs of life
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)
- Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects
- Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices
- Who’s afraid of a strong dollar?
- Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Egyptian inflation has further to rise
- As good as it gets
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Whither the real?
- The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates
- House price growth on the rise
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Government remains reluctant to spend
- Saudi growth to slow as weaker oil sector offsets non-oil recovery
- Extinguishing RBI’s liabilities unlikely to bring much benefit
- Mexico & US: the ties that bind
- Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect
- Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.)
- Elections in 2017 – what they mean for Asia
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)
- Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates
- The People’s Bank fights back
- Unpacking “political risk” in EMs
- Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.)
- Saudi austerity to resume in 2018, but won’t be as harsh as 2015-16
- US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies
- Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.)
- Turkey CPI (Dec.)
- Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017
- OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters
- Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017
- Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017
- Inflation to rise in 2017, but still room for EMs to keep rates low
- C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey
- Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future
- Rising oil prices support Russia market rally
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)
- EM exports set for modest recovery in 2017
- What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2017 budget
- A soft end to 2016
- Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.)
- Asian markets weather first US rate hike in a year
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Fed will have to step up the pace of tightening next year
- Housing market can withstand higher interest rates
- Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks
- Housing Starts (Nov.)
- Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017
- What to expect in 2017
- Peru holds interest rates, but hikes likely to resume in 2017
- Ghana: political success in an economy on the cusp of recovery
- Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes
- Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices
- Flash PMIs (Dec.)
- Ending the year with a whimper
- Bank of Japan to leave policy rates unchanged
- Peru Economic Activity (Oct.)
- Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint
- Sri Lanka GDP (Q3)
- Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year
- Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised
- Bond rout may have gone too far
- Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy
- End of sanctions would give small but short-lived boost to Russia
- Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs
- Will US equities fare better under Trump than Reagan?
- Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice?
- Is the US stock market heading for a re-run of the early 1980s?
- Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.)
- On course for weakest growth since the global financial crisis
- Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect
- The tide for the yen has turned
- Machinery Orders (Oct.)
- Brexit Watch: Supreme Court won’t delay Article 50
- Fed policy still a risk for EMs
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.)
- Focus on the Fed statement and Trump’s reaction
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.)
- Service sector growth to slow next year
- No end in sight for ECB monetary support
- What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline?
- How long will the consumer spending spree last?
- Industrial Production (Oct.)
- From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Trade (Oct.)
- Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening
- Norges Bank to hint at 2017 rate cut
- Limited upside for platinum prices in 2017
- Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy?
- Signs point towards higher German industrial rents
- Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes
- French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.)
- S. Africa Current Account (Q3)
- Construction starts to slow
- What to expect from the upcoming Shunto?
- Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term
- What to expect in 2017
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
- What we know about fourth-quarter GDP
- Central Bank of Iceland to keep rates unchanged
- Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale
- Activity steady while price growth cools
- Policy divergence likely to drive the euro down further
- Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike?
- Economy’s resilience to keep MPC on hold
- Dovish Draghi signals prolonged ECB market presence
- A closer look at the rental vacancy rate
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- OPEC takes centre stage
- South Africa: Economy headed for a brutal end to the year
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.)
- China’s commodity imports bounce back
- Economy weathering political risks
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.)
- Trade (Nov.)
- Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.)
- Australia International Trade (Oct.)
- GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
- Polish rates likely to stay on hold through 2017-18
- Bank of Canada taking a wait and see approach
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Trumponomics, Reaganomics and the US dollar
- How much will the dollar benefit from a shift in the policy mix?
- Decent economic growth but challenges lie ahead
- What does the referendum result mean for Italy’s banks?
- Growth to return in 2017
- Mortgage Applications (Nov.)
- Bucharest industrial rents have further to rise
- Saudi economy holds steady in Q3
- Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation
- Industrial Production (Oct.)
- Halifax House Prices (Nov.)
- German Industrial Production & French Trade (Oct.)
- FX reserves (Nov.)
- Tepid recovery as “Big Three” continue to struggle
- Four reasons why a recession remains unlikely
- Australia GDP (Q3)
- Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue
- Investor enthusiasm buoying the prices of industrials
- Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece
- Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based
- Will EM equities remain immune to Italian politics?
- Year ending on a positive note
- International Merchandise Trade (Oct.)
- CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)
- International Trade (Oct.)
- Inflation to remain in Goldilocks zone in 2017
- Russia CPI (Nov.)
- Korea’s president on the way out, but crisis to persist
- What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia
- Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q3)
- Swiss Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.)
- South Africa GDP (Q3)
- RBA looks through possible fall in Q3 GDP
- Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.)
- Ten key calls for EMs in 2017
- Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard
- Mortgage rates on the rise following Trump win
- Italian bond market unlikely to enjoy much respite
- Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4
- Monetary conditions to remain loose despite Trump win
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.)
- Robust supply to weigh on soybeans prices
- Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Nov.)
- Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia?
- Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Oct.)
- Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.)
- What now for Italy?
- Turkey CPI (Nov.)
- Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- CEE yields to fall faster and for longer
- OPEC seal the deal
- The other shoe just dropped
- US Employment Report doesn’t change the outlook for the Fed
- OPEC agreement not such a big deal for the world economy
- Brexit Watch: More evidence suggesting soft(ish) Brexit likely
- Largest yields falls now behind us, but still room to move lower
- Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth?
- Labour Force Survey (Nov.)
- Crunch time for Italy?
- Employment Report (Nov.)
- Palladium market to continue to tighten in 2017
- Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher?
- How gloomy should we be about investment?
- Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.)
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Nov.)
- Thailand’s populist shift is bad news for the economy
- Swiss GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate)
- Yen weakness to feed inflation rebound
- Brace yourself for GDP
- Dealing with demonetisation
- Retail Sales (Oct.)
- EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
- Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.)
- Capital values post first rise since May
- Further depreciation of the renminbi unlikely to rock EM markets
- External market drivers Trump domestic factors
- Markets focus on the Trump positives
- QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise
- Nationwide House Prices (Nov.)
- Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Italian GDP (Q3)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Nov.)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
- Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
- PMIs (Nov.)
- Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3)
- Capital Expenditure (Q3)
- Home sales can withstand the coming rise in mortgage rates
- Russian markets outperform after Trump victory
- Are markets under-estimating political risks?
- UK financial system coping well with uncertainty
- Asian markets stabilise
- South Africa Trade Balance (Oct.)
- GDP (Q3)
- Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost
- Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease
- Brazil GDP (Q3)
- Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- What’s next for zinc prices?
- Small Business Confidence (Nov.)
- What next for the rupee?
- Industrial Production (Oct.)
- Talk of rate hikes is premature
- Strong dollar making life hard for the PBOC
- OPEC confirms Algiers deal, but real test still to come
- No interest rate cut until early next year
- Strong earnings push equity markets to ten-month high
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- London Housing Chart Book – London set to underperform
- Have the threats to commercial property been overstated?
- Are equities in commodity-exporting EMs ripe for a rally?
- Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Nov.)
- How will Trump’s victory affect global monetary policy?
- GDP (Q3 2016)
- Lat Am markets stabilise post Trump
- Stocks continue to dwindle
- Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand
- Will OPEC fall at the final hurdle?
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.)
- EM recovery grinds on
- German Flash CPI (Nov.)
- OPEC deal looks even more perilous
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Oct.)
- Mortgage Lending (Oct.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.)
- Lending to commercial property (Oct.)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)
- Swedish GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate)
- Africa: Recovery yet to gain traction
- Exporters still stuck in low growth gear
- Pension reform to improve health of public finances
- Sri Lankan rates on hold, but hikes in the pipeline
- Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Oct.)
- Valuations still favour EM equities over US$ bonds
- Tide turning against Temer
- What next for Italian government bonds?
- Kenya: Policy loosening will proceed gradually
- Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited
- Will lower rates give the housing market another boost?
- Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus
- Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain
- IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
- South Africa: Downgrade, when it comes, will tell us little new
- Which euro-zone cities and sectors boast the strongest prospects?
- Further yen weakness and Nikkei gains ahead
- Can services alone deliver rapid growth?
- ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations
- Colombia GDP (Q3)
- Corporate profits still point to sluggish economy
- Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact
- Oil market in wait-and-see mode
- Chancellor “just about manages” to help consumers
- Is the OBR too gloomy about Brexit?
- Could repealing Dodd-Frank boost the wider economy?
- Yen on course for 120 against the dollar
- Trade in the doldrums even before Trump victory
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.)
- Weakness in China’s metals imports could prove temporary
- GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q3)
- Strong domestic demand helping to offset weak exports
- Could retail warehouse rents provide a positive surprise?
- BoJ set to taper its JGB purchases
- Is a major slowdown happening right under our noses?
- Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Growing oil demand quietly rebalancing the market
- What next for EM currencies?
- Did Mr Hammond squander a golden opportunity?
- How vulnerable is the US stock market to the strong dollar?
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.)
- South Africa: Rates on hold, but rhetoric turns hawkish
- Taking stock of Trump’s victory
- Should investors be concerned by the rise in Italian bond yields?
- Housebuilding (Q3 2016)
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Oct.)
- China and India’s gold imports (Oct.)
- German Ifo Survey (Nov.)
- Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Nov.)
- New Zealand trumps Australia
- Anti-corruption drive has further to run
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
- Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised)
- New Home Sales (Oct.)
- Autumn Statement 2016: Creating room for manoeuvre
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points
- Further rise in US bond yields unlikely to blow equities off course
- Stuck in the slow lane
- Flash PMIs (Nov.)
- Wage growth has further to rise
- Durable Goods (Oct.)
- Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market?
- Euro’s decline does not take the onus off the ECB
- Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries?
- Political developments take centre stage
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.)
- Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
- South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- President Trump and the implications for the Middle East
- Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017
- No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts
- Has the storm passed?
- Existing Home Sales (Oct.)
- Trump’s fiscal stimulus won’t be a game-changer for US equities
- Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes
- UK Autumn Statement 2016 Checklist
- Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth
- Saudi Arabia unlikely to take strong action to boost oil prices
- Retail Sales (Sep.)
- Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation”
- Gilt yields won’t rise much further
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Nov.)
- Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year
- Public Finances (Oct.)
- Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.)
- EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off
- Growth accelerates above trend
- Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts
- Global Steel Production (Oct.)
- China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Sep./Oct.)
- Boost from infrastructure spending may prove a damp squib
- What if Italy votes “no”?
- Peru GDP (Q3)
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.)
- Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)
- Tighter financial conditions won’t stop the Fed
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Nigeria: Non-oil economy recovers a bit as oil woes continue
- Demonetisation sparks further bond market rally
- Thailand GDP (Q3)
- External trade (Oct.)
- How much support will Mr Hammond provide?
- Brexit Watch: Some more mixed news on the economy
- Commodities take stock
- Will markets continue to take Trump in their stride?
- China trade pact will not compensate for failure of TPP
- Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut
- Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Will the bond sell-off push property yields higher?
- Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Russia Activity Data (Oct.)
- Assessing the risks around the French election
- Slower Spanish retail rental growth likely to prove temporary
- Latest data highlight varying inflation outlooks
- Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts
- Chile: Interest rates to stay on hold, despite weak Q3 GDP
- Stress tests to put pressure on buy-to-let LTVs
- Property market starting to cool
- Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future
- Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform?
- Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low
- Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely
- Assessing the early impact of demonetisation
- Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA
- Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems?
- Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely
- Consumers continue to shrug off Brexit worries
- Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming
- What next for US corporate bonds?
- OPEC likely to do just enough
- Yellen indicates Fed could raise rates “relatively soon”
- Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Housing Starts (Oct.)
- Trump victory proves divisive
- EM exports after the Golden Era
- Autumn Statement 2016 Preview
- Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end
- Retail Sales (Oct.)
- Japan moves one step closer to helicopter money
- What weapons would China wield in a trade war?
- Philippines GDP (Q3)
- Australia Labour Market (Oct.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Too soon to give up on gold
- World trade in the Trump era
- Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets
- SNB will struggle to keep franc’s rise at bay
- Industrial Production (Oct.)
- Manufacturing Sales (Sep.)
- Gold down, but not out?
- South Africa: Economy flatlined in Q3
- Employment (Sep.)
- Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland
- Labour Market (Sep./Oct.)
- Oil sector supports stabilisation of Saudi economy
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
- Investors turn positive on metals
- What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields?
- Peru Economic Activity (Sep.)
- No need to panic over bond sell-off
- Headline supply overstates the risk to London office rents
- What does the bond “bloodbath” mean for the economy?
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.)
- Retail Sales (Oct.)
- External position healthy despite wider trade deficit
- Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount
- Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- CML Lending Trends (2016 Q3)
- UK House Price Index (Sep.)
- Tweaking our EM markets forecasts
- African Debt: Troubles contained in a few countries
- Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2016)
- How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy
- Norwegian & Finnish GDP (Q3)
- Wholesale Prices (Oct.)
- Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind
- Could the RCEP compensate for the demise of the TPP?
- Will European bonds fare better than US Treasuries?
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.)
- Will European bond yields follow US Treasuries higher?
- Korea’s political crisis deepens
- No need for panic over coming drop in multifamily starts
- Russia GDP (Q3 2016)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.)
- Trump win pushes bond yields higher
- Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Activity & Spending (Oct.)
- GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
- South Africa: Political drama will only intensify
- Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off
- Brexit Watch: Trump helps sterling find floor
- Commodities swing wildly on Trump victory
- Mixed quarter for the non-euro-zone markets
- Fall in yields regains momentum in Q3
- We expect the sell-off in the US Treasury market to continue
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- Trump win could still be bad for Canada
- Commercial property investment (Oct.)
- Nigeria and Libya push OPEC’s output higher
- What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed?
- Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold?
- Will Trump’s stimulus boost the world economy?
- Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia
- What to expect from the Q3 GDP data
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.)
- New – even more bearish – forecasts for Treasuries
- Four reasons a Trump presidency is still bullish for gold prices
- Where is political risk greatest?
- Taking stock of the reaction to Trump
- What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA?
- Industrial Production (Sep.)
- Trump rally may be a triumph of hope over reality
- What could President Trump mean for energy commodities?
- Peru: Rising inflation to trigger rate hikes next year
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q3)
- Housing rent to remain a drag on inflation
- Turkey Current Account (Sep.)
- Malaysia GDP (Q3)
- Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar?
- Korean rates to stay unchanged through 2017
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.)
- South Africa: Output data point to (another) sharp slowdown
- A note of caution on the rally in copper prices
- Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.)
- Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Treading water
- Machinery Orders (Sep.)
- New Zealand – RBNZ thinks it has done enough
- Trump, Russia and the future of sanctions
- Is the US stock market banking too much on Trump?
- Where next for the Egyptian pound?
- Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates
- Trump victory creates more business uncertainty
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Polish monetary policy to stay loose
- Why were markets so quick to shrug off Trump’s victory? Capital
- Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely
- What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market?
- Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Trump victory to bring lasting uncertainty and volatility
- Trump win to boost gold prices further
- Opportunities for China from Trump’s election
- Brexit minus, minus, minus?
- Trump win could widen policy divergence next year
- What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia?
- The global economic consequences of Trump’s victory
- Trade (Sep.)
- Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks
- Japan’s hopes for the TPP dead and buried
- PM Modi steps up anti-corruption drive
- Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK
- Market fallout from President Trump may not last long
- First thoughts on the US election fallout
- Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.)
- Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
- NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise
- Cocoa prices to struggle on improved supply
- Clinton win looking increasingly likely
- London housebuilding wobbles in Q3
- What would a Trump victory mean for the markets?
- Q3 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends
- Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election
- Coal prices are at the mercy of Chinese policymakers
- What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies?
- Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- China’s commodity imports dip in October
- Industrial Production (Sep.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.)
- German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.)
- Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.)
- Trade (Oct.)
- What would a Trump victory mean for Asia?
- Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.)
- How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar?
- Housing market activity constrained by low inventory
- How far can German property yields fall?
- Clinton rally or Trump sell-off likely to be short-lived
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.)
- Drop in food inflation has run its course
- How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory?
- World economy in decent shape on eve of US elections
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.)
- Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism
- FX reserves (Oct.)
- What will Egypt’s pound float mean for inflation?
- Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Halifax House Prices (Oct.)
- Indonesia GDP (Q3)
- Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
- Surge in part-time employment in Australia may soon slow
- Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere
- US election taking centre-stage
- What to make of the US dollar’s recent performance
- Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy
- Property yields still have room for maneouvre
- Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit
- How much inflation will the MPC tolerate?
- Uncertainty will persist well past election day
- Oil slips but coal continues to burn brightly
- Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.)
- Employment Report (Oct.)
- Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone?
- Slower credit growth will keep a lid on inflation
- Can Chinese investment lift growth in Pakistan?
- GST begins to take shape
- Is consumer spending about to take off?
- Support from looser fiscal policy set to wane
- Markets need not worry about Trump too much
- The RBA’s tone is becoming more upbeat
- Australia Retail Sales (Sep.)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.)
- Sterling’s resurgence unlikely to go much further
- Housing market activity gradually recovering
- Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook
- Economy sustains its momentum but price pressures rise
- Russia CPI (Oct.)
- Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election
- Household debt mountain to weigh on Asian consumers
- Sweden’s Riksbank takes centre stage
- Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go?
- Era of ultra-low mortgage rates drawing to a close
- Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.)
- Central banks continue to add gold to their reserves
- Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Oct.)
- Swedish Production Indices (Sep.) and Services PMI (Oct.)
- Egypt floats pound, currency falls by 30% against the dollar
- Retail rental growth in Lisbon down but not out
- New Zealand – 1.75% may not be the floor
- International Trade (Sep.)
- Fed on track for December rate hike
- Will the rise in euro-zone bond yields continue?
- Would a Trump win really be bad for the S&P 500?
- Industrials continue to outperform
- What would a Trump win mean for commodities?
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct. Final)
- How would a Trump victory affect US equities?
- Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari
- What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty
- Mortgage Applications (Oct.)
- What would be the impact of a cut in VAT?
- Government likely to miss privatisation target
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.)
- Fourth quarter 2016
- Nationwide House Prices (Oct.)
- Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
- New Zealand Labour Market (Q3)
- Federal fiscal update doesn’t alter dismal growth outlook
- Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises
- EM manufacturing makes a strong start to Q4
- More good news from China largely priced in?
- Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.)
- GDP by Industry (Aug.)
- CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)
- Will Brazilian equities continue to outperform
- Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) & Manuf. PMI (Oct.)
- Saudi finance minister’s departure won’t mark end of austerity
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Oct.)
- Good news for industrials
- Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) & Swiss Retail Sales (Sep.)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
- Baton passing to fiscal policy as BoJ reluctant to ease
- Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
- Chances of further cuts fading, but not disappearing
- Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
- PMIs (Oct.)
- Interbank rates spike but don’t signal policy shift
- What do lower equilibrium interest rates mean for asset prices?
- Latest data deal a blow to Brazil’s recovery
- Little risk to growth from Iceland’s election
- Would EM currencies underperform if Trump won?
- Markets in Thailand regain their poise
- Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth?
- Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.)
- Rate left on hold in Sri Lanka, but further hikes likely
- How will EM currencies react to Fed tightening?
- Korean scandal a blow for the president, but not the economy
- Lat Am central banks turning more dovish
- Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prel. Flash) & CPI (Oct.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.)
- Mortgage Lending (Sep.)
- Lending to commercial property (Sep.)
- Saudi devaluation fears fade, African oil currencies struggle
- Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)
- Exports record first positive growth in two years
- Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded
- Commodities looking for direction
- 1992 or 2008?
- Will the sell-off in bonds continue?
- Germany-France divergence looks set to last
- Fed likely to delay rate hike until December
- Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent?
- GDP (Q3 1st Estimate)
- EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Sep.)
- German Flash CPI (Oct.)
- Rally in Berlin office rents not over yet
- Debt-to-equity swaps won’t resolve China’s debt woes
- Strong Q3 GDP figures: trick or treat?
- Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms
- Mozambique: Debt revelations push up bond yields
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.)
- Political risk on the rise in South East Asia
- Are political attacks on central banks just “noise”?
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.)
- Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.)
- France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
- When will the Bank of Japan start tapering?
- Revisiting the NPL problem
- How fast will inflation rise?
- Policy rate to be lowered further
- Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced)
- Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- Venezuela: PDVSA bond swap tinkering around the edges
- Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months
- Would an OPEC production cut make a difference?
- Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3)
- Wage growth still relatively subdued
- Economy’s resilience will probably stay the MPC’s hand
- What do the UK GDP data mean for the markets?
- Capital values appear to be stabilising
- Durable Goods (Sep.)
- Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade
- Iceland Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Saudi dollar bond yields edge down following bumper sale
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)
- China and India’s gold imports (Sep.)
- Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q3)
- Riksbank set to loosen further but tide will turn before long
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep.)
- Africa: Political risk takes centre stage
- RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3)
- Norges Bank leaves policy unchanged, but rate cuts to come
- Rate cutting cycle may not be finished yet
- Politics help Lat Am markets to outperform
- World still awash with liquidity even as Fed prepares to hike
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (26th Oct. 16)
- Explaining recent developments in housing equity withdrawal
- Egypt edges closer to IMF deal as shortages bite
- New Home Sales (Sep.)
- What’s behind the resilience of EM currencies?
- Are retail sales providing a misleadingly-upbeat picture?
- Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery
- Spain’s new Government may be short-lived
- South Africa: Fiscal goals still too ambitious
- Fed likely to delay rate hike until December
- Job gains mostly part-time positions for older workers
- Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed?
- Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep. 16)
- Mozambique: What to make of the latest debt revelations
- Renewed drive for energy efficiency to cap oil demand and prices
- Small Business Confidence (Oct.)
- Australia Consumer Prices (Q3)
- Strong pick-up in Q3
- World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 16)
- Renminbi to continue its gradual decline against the dollar
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.)
- Another weak month for China’s metals imports
- Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable?
- First thoughts on Colombia’s tax reform
- A bright future for cobalt prices
- German Ifo Survey (Oct.)
- Further signs of regional slowdown
- Commodity prices turning into a tailwind
- Core price pressures remain elevated
- Korea GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
- Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise
- Flash PMIs (Oct.)
- US dollar set for further gains
- How much cheaper can high LTV lending get?
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.)
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct. & Q4)
- Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.)
- EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.)
- Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
- External trade (Sep.)
- Is sterling now “fair” value?
- Brexit Watch: Higher borrowing won’t deter the Chancellor
- Should EM investors fear low volatility?
- What might derail our European property yield forecasts?
- Commodities pause for breath
- GDP growth boosted by strong export performance
- Renminbi has further to slide against US dollar
- Shift away from US could damage Philippines’ economy
- Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing
- Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.)
- Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts
- Political risks take toll on lira and leu
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.)
- How much has the economy slowed?
- Public Finances (Sep.)
- Interest rates to be left unchanged until 2017
- Surge in current account highlights sluggish demand
- Reform progress in Indonesia not enough to revive growth
- The mixed and messy labour market
- What is driving overseas demand for UK property?
- No need for the Riksbank to loosen policy further
- Spending growth holding up well
- Is the new-build premium really falling?
- Global Steel Production (Sep.)
- What next for the markets?
- ECB signals December QE extension
- Existing Home Sales (Sep.)
- Mexico’s star begins to fade
- Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end
- RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3)
- Global Aluminium Production (Sep.)
- Further easing set to be gradual as Bank Indonesia cuts again
- Easy credit lifting the service sector
- Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course
- Retail Sales (Sep.)
- Fed drives a wedge between metals prices
- Bond market boosted by dovish RBI
- Brazil: rate cuts to remain gradual, for now
- Swedish Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
- Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail
- Australia Labour Market (Sep.)
- Will the Fed rock the boat?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Bank of Canada remains on the side lines
- Global growth to pick up slightly, led by EMs
- Can we forecast elections and referendums?
- Russia Activity Data (Sep.)
- Housing Starts (Sep.)
- First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s international bond sale
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)
- South Africa: Economy falters in Q3
- Industrials looking vulnerable to a turn in sentiment
- Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush?
- Steady as she goes
- Employment (Aug.)
- Labour Market (Aug./Sep.)
- What does the new estimate of the neutral rate tell us?
- Chile: MPC divided, but rates to remain on hold
- South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.)
- Will business investment remain sluggish?
- How will money market changes affect US government bonds?
- Near-term risks largely on the downside
- How will new money market rules affect demand for Treasuries?
- Would a Clinton win really be a boon for the stock market?
- How will new money market rules affect demand for Treasuries?
- Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone?
- Saudi Arabia to ease pace of austerity in 2017-18
- Is the MPC going soft on inflation?
- Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- Manufacturing Sales (Aug.)
- Japan well placed to cope with higher energy prices
- Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign
- Investment in mainland Europe running at nine-year high
- UK House Price Index (Aug.)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
- New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3)
- Assessing the economic fallout from Samsung’s problems
- Will global demand remain weak?
- Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona
- Housing market activity to recover next year
- Headline inflation on the rise in both the US and UK
- Industrial Production (Sep.)
- What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales
- Exports showing signs of recovery
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)
- Cautious SNB won’t hike rates for some time yet
- Peru Economic Activity (Aug.)
- Brexit Watch: A second Scottish independence referendum?
- Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed
- Q3 data point to fairly slow growth
- Sterling’s Marmite fall now looks overdone
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
- US dollar appreciation constrains prices
- Recent job gains appear to be very low quality
- Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.)
- How far will the pound’s fall lift inflation?
- Is falling floor space per worker always a risk to availability?
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2016)
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.)
- Euro-zone Trade (Aug.)
- Construction Output (Aug.)
- Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery
- Peru: Interest rates to rise by more than most expect
- Bank will remain on the sidelines this year
- Malaysia to signal continued commitment to fiscal discipline
- Weathering the Brexit storm
- Wholesale Prices (Sep.)
- Surge in labour force soon to run out of steam
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)
- Monetary policy in Singapore to stay unchanged for some time
- What next for bond yields?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Oct. 16)
- How vulnerable are EM equities to developments in China?
- Recent fall in stocks suggests metals markets are tightening
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep. 16)
- Preparing for a December QE extension
- Is investor confidence in Madrid offices misplaced?
- Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- King’s death casts shadow over Thailand
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Aug. 16)
- China’s September commodity imports hold up rather well
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 16)
- Trade (Sep.)
- Korean rates to stay on prolonged hold
- What would a Trump victory mean for metals prices?
- NFIB & JOLT surveys point to slightly weaker labour market
- Fed, not high valuations, is key near-term threat to EM equites
- Will Clinton’s proposals boost homeownership?
- OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return
- Tide turning towards stimulus
- Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.)
- Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.)
- What might the US election mean for energy commodities?
- Oslo retail rents to lift higher, despite slow economic growth
- Turkey Current Account (Aug.)
- Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
- Machinery Orders (Aug.)
- Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand
- Will gilt yields carry on rising?
- Tight market conditions drive up house prices
- Rebound in oil prices is a mixed blessing
- Fallout from higher oil prices (mostly) good news
- South Africa Manufacturing Output (Aug)
- Commercial property investment (Sep. 16)
- German ZEW Survey (Oct.)
- Rising political risks threaten growth outlook
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.)
- Coming property price correction to weigh on growth
- Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.)
- The RBA, inflation and November
- Industrial Production (Aug.)
- US dollar likely to fall against other major currencies if Trump wins
- What’s driving the surge in Build-to-Rent?
- What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar?
- Poor health of the king is the key risk to Thai growth outlook
- Ethiopia: Political crisis rocks African growth star
- Saudi economy stabilises
- Nickel prices on increasingly shaky ground
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.)
- A primer on China’s new monetary policy regime
- Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- UK equities could fare even better
- Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak
- Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound
- Energy prices shrug off US dollar appreciation
- Will the UK stock market continue to strengthen?
- Softer employment growth to weigh on Dublin office demand
- Will the latest mortgage rule changes derail housing?
- Election unlikely to cause major shift in fiscal policy
- Employment Report (Sep. 16)
- Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16)
- Is another rate cut now off the table?
- Is the ECB going to taper?
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- What can we infer about regional prospects from equities?
- What would a Trump victory mean for Asia?
- Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.)
- Central banks resume gold buying in August
- House prices stabilised in September
- German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Aug.)
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.)
- Why is services inflation slowing?
- FX reserves (Sep.)
- Decent GDP growth in Q3, but headwinds persist
- Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.)
- Are Prague offices at a turning point?
- Recovery to grind on
- Food prices drive inflation rebound
- ECB more likely to extend, than taper, its asset purchases
- US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact
- Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up
- Why Turkey’s economy will struggle
- Dovish RBI risks stoking inflation pressures
- Australia International Trade (Aug.)
- Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017
- Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy
- Q3 growth slowdown won’t be too sharp
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (5th Oct. 16)
- How vulnerable are bonds to a shift in monetary policy?
- Polish MPC talks of rate hikes, but policy to remain loose
- Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.)
- Bond yields are likely to remain much lower than in the past
- International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16)
- Mortgage Applications (Sep.)
- Housing market looking resilient
- Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017
- Hopes of market rebalancing boost energy commodities
- Monetary policy and conditions still ultra-loose
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep. 16)
- Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Sep.)
- What would President Trump mean for Japan?
- Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
- The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem
- Retail Sales (Aug.)
- Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
- What to make of the IMF’s latest forecasts?
- Industrials steal the show
- We expect the US dollar to keep on rising
- Russia CPI (Sep.)
- CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 16)
- Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.)
- More dovish RBI may have to reverse course in 2017
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep. 16)
- Mixed message about euro-zone growth
- New Governor, same story
- Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth
- EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 16)
- A positive month for commodities
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 16)
- Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
- Should we be concerned about sterling’s slide?
- Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble?
- Still no need to worry about the pound
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Sep.)
- Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political
- Warsaw retail rents enjoying a purple patch
- Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.)
- Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
- Tankan Q3
- Could the neutral rate be even lower?
- Are yield ceilings the future for monetary policy?
- Brexit Watch: Is a “Hard Brexit” on the cards?
- OPEC’s surprise deal lacks substance
- What does SDR inclusion mean for the renminbi?
- Is China’s appetite for gold faltering?
- Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line
- Romanian rate hikes coming onto the agenda
- GDP by Industry (Jul. 16)
- Will the housing market hold back the economy?
- Consumer spending resilient ahead of referendum
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Aug.)
- Strong Saudi Q2 GDP data could be revised down
- Is euro-zone growth picking up or slowing?
- Nigeria: Naira crashes on parallel market
- A temporary pause in the EM recovery
- National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2)
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.)
- US natural gas prices unlikely to rise much further
- Rise in repo rate not a sign of policy tightening
- Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 16)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
- Large Brussels pipeline to allow Antwerp retail rents to get ahead
- Offshoring, the yen & inflation
- New president of the Philippines risks undoing recent gains
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
- FDI inflows should recover soon
- What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand?
- Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely
- How much would a Trump tariff hurt China?
- Valuations suggest “junk” bonds are still vulnerable
- Help to Buy won’t be missed
- Spanish economy could suffer from political chaos
- Reform progress provides healthy backdrop for EM equities
- Will oil continue to drive Asian equities higher?
- Is the recent surge in the money supply a concern?
- Is Airbnb behind the high number of vacant homes?
- Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero
- China still towards the top of EM worry list
- Stronger payrolls may not be enough to cut unemployment
- Resilient Chinese economy supports prices
- German Flash CPI (Sep.)
- An anatomy of Brazil’s recession
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.)
- Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal
- Taiwan’s central bank to resume easing cycle next year
- OPEC deal not a game-changer for oil markets
- Mortgage Lending (Aug. 16)
- Lending to commercial property (Aug 16.)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)
- Are investors underestimating EM credit risks?
- Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook
- South Africa: Q2 rebound not a sign of things to come
- Vietnam GDP (Q3)
- Retail Sales (Aug.)
- The envy of the advanced world
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (28th Sep. 16)
- Deutsche Bank’s troubles unlikely to spark wider crisis
- OPEC is not the key to unlocking sustainably higher oil prices
- How big are the risks for Edinburgh and Glasgow offices?
- Mexican peso in the spotlight
- Durable Goods (Aug. 16)
- Is Africa’s economic downturn finally bottoming out?
- Duterte’s antics hits sentiment in the Philippines
- How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances?
- Small Business Confidence (Sep.)
- New governor to opt for policy continuity
- Rates on hold, but easing cycle isn’t over
- Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America
- Falling inflation adds to Bank of Canada’s concerns
- Will the rebound in the Mexican peso continue?
- Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve
- EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul. 16)
- Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)
- Egyptian dollar bonds perform well as IMF deal edges closer
- SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB
- Italy’s constitutional referendum poses economic risks
- Economics, not elections, the key to US equity performance
- How will politics in the US affect its stock market?
- New Home Sales (Aug. 16)
- Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth
- What do higher coking coal prices mean for iron ore?
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Would President Trump start a trade war?
- How are retailers coping with the National Living Wage?
- German Ifo Survey (Sep.)
- Rebound in Vienna office rents set to continue
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.)
- The structural decline in investment
- Fed telegraphs a December rate hike
- Brexit Watch: More evidence of support from fall in the pound
- Algiers unlikely to be a game-changer
- OPEC output freeze agreement likely to prove elusive
- Housing market confidence returns
- Flash PMIs (Sep. 16)
- Bank of Canada quiet on monetary policy options
- Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.)
- ECB unlikely to follow in Bank of Japan’s footsteps
- Is the economy in a Brexit sweet spot?
- Like the economy, property is holding up well
- Argentina: Q2 GDP data not as bad as they appear
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.)
- Mortgage surge not the key driver of stronger credit
- Could Swedish industrial rents have reached a plateau?
- Myanmar: A six month progress report
- Is rising real estate debt a cause for concern?
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)
- The risks around our dollar forecasts
- Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next year
- Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines
- Egypt keeps rates unchanged, but large hikes lie ahead
- Existing Home Sales (Aug. 16)
- US Treasury yields still likely to climb, as the Fed tightens policy
- Was the uptick in industrial yields unwarranted?
- South Africa: MPC Statement hints tightening cycle complete
- Downturn easing, but outlook remains bleak
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Sep.)
- Saudi Arabia likely to stick with fiscal austerity
- Will the Term Funding Scheme boost bank lending?
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 16)
- Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Sep.)
- Government moves a step closer to establishing new MPC
- China’s metals imports remained subdued in August
- Have lenders become more cautious?
- How will the BoJ conduct policy in future?
- Bank Indonesia cuts rates, further easing likely to be gradual
- Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted
- Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next year
- What to make of promises of more output from Libya and Nigeria
- External vulnerabilities remain low
- New Zealand – RBNZ desperate to get the dollar down
- Riksbank minutes suggest no extension of asset purchases
- Fed on track for a December rate hike
- Governments tighten the purse strings
- Market implications of the BoJ’s policy changes
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (21st Sep. 16)
- Global Steel Production (Aug.)
- What to make of the BoJ’s recalibration of monetary policy
- Recovery continues
- What can we learn from the Zillow Confidence Index?
- Central boroughs lead London slowdown
- Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico
- EM central banks remain in easing mode
- Riksbank minutes suggest no extension of asset purchases
- Hungary upgraded but bond rally limited
- Public Finances (Aug.)
- Frontiers turn to international bond markets
- South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Bank of Japan will have to lower policy rate further
- Rollout of GST is edging closer
- External trade (Aug.)
- Dollar strength weighs on sentiment
- Domestic factors unlikely to cause rupee slump
- A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance
- ABS House Prices (Q2)
- Should we be concerned about bonds in Asia?
- How will BoJ and Fed policy affect the markets?
- Have policymakers tamed BTL?
- Nigeria: CBN ignores government, maintains tight policy
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 16)
- Are investors starting to become wary about Dublin valuations?
- Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed
- Housing Starts (Aug. 16)
- Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers
- China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Jul./Aug.)
- Global Aluminium Production (Aug. 16)
- Investors take fright in the Philippines
- Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.)
- Equity prices come off the boil
- Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed
- UK macroprudential policy is set to support credit supply
- Low inflation won’t prevent a euro-zone slowdown
- Russia Activity Data (Aug.)
- Firms continue to hoard cash overseas
- What are the alternatives to a points-based migration system?
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.)
- United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power
- Bulging stocks to weigh on the prices of grains & soybeans
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)
- The view from the ground – Q3 2016
- RBA tweaks its policy agreement
- SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode
- Attention to return to the Fed
- Brexit Watch: Further monetary policy easing to come
- Are OIS rates a poor guide to US monetary policy?
- Markets still relatively sanguine about the election
- Hawkish Russian MPC still likely to cut
- Household debt continues to rise
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
- Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
- Consumer Prices (Aug. 16)
- Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market
- Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well
- What are US OIS rates really telling us about future Fed policy?
- Hitting the target?
- Foreign investors not Finnished with Helsinki
- Comprehensive policy review should deliver more easing
- End of tourism boom no disaster
- Berlin election to add to signs of euro-scepticism
- Baht not to blame for Thailand’s export woes
- Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie?
- Lower import bill will keep trade deficit in check
- Prospects for consumers remain reasonably bright
- What next for EM currencies?
- Spare oil production capacity ample for now
- Outlook for German retail rents still positive
- Spending growth slowdown not too sharp
- Peru Economic Activity (Jul.)
- Rising stocks weigh on copper prices
- Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 16)
- EM equities under fire, as attention turns back to Fed
- Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up?
- What next for Brazil?
- MPC leaves the door open for another rate cut in November
- Sri Lanka GDP (Q2 2016)
- Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Final CPI (Aug.)
- Retail Sales (Aug.)
- Nigeria: Early signs point to deepening contraction in Q3
- SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions
- New Zealand – Improving outlook unlikely to prevent further rate cuts
- Australia Labour Market (Aug.)
- Corporate bond reform could ease financing constraints
- New Zealand GDP (Q2)
- SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (14th Sep. 16)
- Market conditions tighten as inventory falls
- Extension of “Juncker plan” would not be a game-changer
- Oversupply to weigh on the price of iron ore
- Fed unlikely to hike rates again before December
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug. 16)
- BoJ policy easing is likely to keep a lid on long-dated JGB yields
- Labour market slack no longer shrinking
- South African economy losing steam in Q3
- Ireland GDP (Q2)
- Venezuela: dodging near-term default, kicks can down the road
- Employment (Jul.)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
- Labour Market (Jul./Aug.)
- Will economic pain prompt a shift in Saudi oil policy?
- Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled out
- Wholesale Prices (Aug.)
- Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.)
- Inflation targeting – time for a change?
- Are valuations really stretched?
- What are the market implications of lower real interest rates?
- Should we be worried about low inflation expectations?
- Falling mining output to drag on regional recovery
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.)
- Making sense of higher asset valuations
- Official House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics (Q2)
- OPEC’s past form points to disappointment in Algiers
- German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q2)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.)
- Regional growth to stay subdued in 2017-18
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- S. Africa Current Account (Q2)
- Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016)
- Activity & Spending (Aug.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug. 16)
- Too soon to call the turn in global monetary policy
- EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums
- Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy
- Why this isn’t the beginning of the end for EM equities
- OPEC pushes back market rebalancing
- Why are central banks giving a cold shoulder to gold in 2016?
- Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.)
- EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes
- Commercial property investment (Aug. 16)
- Machinery Orders (Jul.)
- Brexit Watch: Recession fears continue to ease
- Yields to fall further as monetary policy stays looser for longer
- A roller-coaster week for oil
- What next for sterling and gilts?
- Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth
- Softer rental growth outlook will be offset by further yield compression
- Will Birmingham property continue to outperform?
- EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue
- Housing bubble still a tale of two cities
- Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down
- Labour Force Survey (Aug.16)
- Time to dump the junk?
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Did the MPC jump the gun in August?
- Mexico: big budget cuts to weigh on 2017 growth, mining sector
- Trade & Construction Output (Jul.)
- Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia
- Turkey GDP (Q2)
- Fiscal targets moving out of reach
- Korean rates to stay on hold until year-end at least
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
- The secret fiscal stimulus
- ASEAN still struggling for purpose
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (8th Sep. 16)
- ECB a touch less dovish, but its work is not done
- ECB holds off for now, but more easing still likely this year
- Rebound in activity won’t prevent further policy easing
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.)
- Are EM equity valuations really too high?
- South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3
- Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Are negative interest rates working?
- China’s commodity imports bounced back in August
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.)
- Retail sales’ strong start to Q3 won’t be sustained
- Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Trade (Aug.)
- Australia International Trade (Jul.)
- What to make of a possible swing towards fiscal stimulus?
- JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market
- Coffee prices perking up
- Is the pendulum swinging towards fiscal stimulus?
- Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut
- Mortgage Applications (Aug.)
- Post-referendum shock starts to wane
- Market implications of a possible shift in the policy mix
- Any weakness in silver prices to be short-lived
- Fall in inflation will be short-lived
- Labour market tightest since mid-1990s
- Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low
- FX reserves (Aug.)
- Halifax House Prices (Aug. 16)
- German Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Malaysia’s rate hold to continue
- Australia GDP (Q2)
- Fiscal deficit target is under pressure
- Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low
- Market conditions tighten further
- Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy
- Why we doubt US credit spreads will rise when the Fed tightens
- Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices
- CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
- Troubled States only a small part of Brazil’s fiscal problems
- No post-Brexit crisis, but world economy still struggling
- South Africa GDP (Q2)
- Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2)
- Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.)
- RBA thinks it’s done enough
- Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.)
- Investor interest on the wane
- US Treasuries still vulnerable to waning demand from foreigners
- Is the Philippines overheating?
- Russia CPI (Aug.)
- What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil
- Risk of Spain missing its deficit targets is building
- Growth slows but full-blown recession should be avoided
- IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 2016)
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.)
- Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Aug.)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.)
- New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets
- Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.)
- Turkey CPI (Aug.)
- Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.)
- Prices get a payrolls boost
- Taking stock of the EIA’s oil inventories report
- More of the same from the US labour market
- Construction PMI does not change the outlook for housebuilding
- Does it make sense to raise the inflation target?
- Rise in labour’s share of income has further to run
- Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.)
- International Merchandise Trade (July)
- What are equity prices telling us about GDP?
- Brexit Watch: Post-referendum hit eased in August
- Fall in sterling already supporting the economy
- How big a threat is Zika to Singapore?
- G20: lots of talk but not much action
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.)
- Will the stronger yen speed up offshoring?
- Slowdown in Spain won’t derail industrial rental growth
- Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
- Is China caught in a “liquidity trap”?
- Housing auction rates provide only part of the picture
- How to think about monetary policy after Rajan
- ECB may extend QE programme again
- EM manufacturing recovery pauses in August
- Dollar strength weighs on commodities
- Are US equities set for a rougher ride?
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip
- Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
- Why EM investors don’t seem to care about China any more
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.)
- Could policymakers cope with another downturn?
- Bank will be on hold for some time
- Is China engaging in QE by the back door?
- Investor sentiment sours
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.)
- Will the Brexit vote put the brakes on car spending?
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- Paris office rents on course to surpass consensus forecasts
- Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
- Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
- PMIs (Aug.)
- Australia Retail Sales (Jul.)
- Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q2)
- Capital Expenditure (Q2)
- Brazil GDP (Q2)
- GDP (Q2)
- Will the dollar’s rebound be short-lived?
- Rousseff’s removal will shift attention to fiscal reforms
- Downturn in Hong Kong property market still has further to run
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report – (31st Aug. 16)
- Have valuations of EM equities peaked?
- Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts?
- GDP (Q2 2016)
- Speculation fuels oil price rally
- Is a stable stock market a sign of trouble ahead?
- Asian markets calm following Yellen’s comments
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.)
- Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again
- Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession
- Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 16)
- Norwegian GDP (Q2)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
- Danish GDP (Q2 16)
- Subdued demand bolsters stocks
- What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal?
- Small Business Confidence (Aug.)
- Resetting reform priorities after the GST
- Industrial Production (Jul.)
- Danish GDP (Q2 16)
- Norwegian GDP (Q2 16)
- Slump in exports another devastating blow
- Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies
- Currencies take Yellen comments in their stride
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16)
- Should we be worried about the low level of the VIX?
- Higher zinc prices could prove self-defeating
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun. 16)
- Are record “shorts” a new threat to sterling?
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jul.)
- Sri Lanka holds rates, but further tightening still likely
- German Flash CPI (Aug.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.)
- Mortgage Lending (Jul. 16)
- Recovery resumes
- Why is wage growth not picking up?
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.)
- Lending to commercial property (Jul.)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.)
- What does sterling’s fall mean for hotels and central London retail?
- Slump in Saudi economy deepens
- RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year
- Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Jul.)
- Colombia GDP (Q2)
- Lending growth continues to recover
- Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low?
- Focus shifts to US payrolls
- Weakness of residential investment unlikely to last
- Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2
- Markets shrug off Yellen’s warning of stronger case for tightening
- What is Italy’s referendum all about?
- Industrial rents in Emerging Europe stabilise
- Existing Home Sales (Jul. 16)
- Mixed messages from economic surveys
- Brexit Watch: Surveys point to slowdown but not collapse
- What to expect from Jackson Hole
- Are rental affordability constraints starting to bite
- Office rental growth hits post crisis high
- Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period
- Markets stable one year after panic
- Africa: Political risk spook investors
- EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse
- GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (July)
- Some signs of a slowdown at the start of Q3
- Strong vehicle sales not a sign of consumption revival
- Corporate bond rate falls won’t save business investment
- The dangers of decoupling
- Is Japan still haunted by the undead?
- Household sector unlikely to offset weakness elsewhere
- Consumer Prices (Jun.)
- Latest rise in food inflation should prove short-lived
- Heating up
- What does the rest of the year hold in store for oil prices?
- Jackson Hole likely to focus on longer-term issues
- Political tensions come to the fore
- Shrugging off Brexit worries for now
- Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable
- Durable Goods (Jul. 2016)
- Some positive signs from occupier markets
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3)
- Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal
- China and India’s gold imports (Jul.)
- German Ifo Survey (Aug.)
- EU trade deal unlikely to revive Indonesia’s tin exports
- Colombia peace deal won’t change near-term economic outlook
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (24th Aug. 16)
- World trade weakened in Q2
- Will EM equities find support from lower bond yields?
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.)
- Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) – 16
- Private investment slowdown overstated but still worrying
- More good news for Indonesia, but problems lie ahead
- Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off
- Should we be concerned about EM equities again?
- Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down
- China’s metals imports dip in July
- South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Currencies remain a concern
- Real consumption growth will inevitably slow
- Investors turn positive on oil
- New Home Sales (Jul. 2016)
- Is this the end of the road for EM equities?
- Flash PMIs (Aug.)
- Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards
- Africa: Japan’s role will remain limited
- Why aren’t the markets more worried about the renminbi?
- Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.)
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug)
- Two major reasons for cheer
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- Peru GDP (Q2)
- Global Steel Production (Jul.)
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Will Portugal be excluded from the ECB’s QE programme?
- Has Brexit “Armageddon” been avoided?
- Gilt yields set to remain very low for a long while yet
- Mexico GDP (Q2)
- Too soon to sound the “all clear” on Brexit risks
- Global Aluminium Production (Jul.)
- Regional growth to improve as Brazil exits recession
- UAE set to embark on gradual recovery
- Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow
- Choice of new RBI governor signals policy continuity
- Weaker dollar supports commodity prices
- China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Jun./Jul.)
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)
- What’s behind the rally in oil prices?
- Should we be worried by household debt?
- Oil price rally based on shaky foundations
- Have home sales peaked?
- Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour?
- Easing likely to resume in Indonesia soon
- Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism
- Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.)
- Will term premiums anchor US Treasury yields?
- Lower bond yields counteract falling property yields
- London Housing Chart Book – London slowdown underway
- Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey?
- Public Finances (Jul.)
- US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook
- Fundamentals will conquer short-term fears
- Will underlying inflation turn negative?
- Export struggles to continue
- Why wage growth will stay low
- Gulf non-oil sectors struggle as austerity bites
- What’s behind the renewed slide in the US dollar?
- Little sign of immediate post-referendum hit to spending
- How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations
- Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2)
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
- Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery
- Putting the global slowdown into perspective
- Western investors to drive gold prices higher
- Rally in equities has further to run
- Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.)
- Retail Sales (Jul.)
- Philippines GDP (Q2)
- Australia Labour Market (Jul.)
- External trade (Jul.)
- Is the yen finally topping out?
- Growth should pick up as headwinds fade
- G20 blues lie ahead
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (17th Aug. 16)
- Dutch investment growth set to slow sharply
- Saudi economy probably contracted in Q2
- Should investors be concerned about Lisbon property?
- Russia Activity Data (Jul.)
- South Africa: Retail sales data point to Q2 rebound
- Employment (Jun.)
- China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jul.)
- Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity
- Labour Market (Jun./Jul.)
- Governor Kuroda is mulling another policy surprise
- New Zealand Labour Market (Q2)
- Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere
- Are Treasuries vulnerable to waning demand from overseas?
- Global imbalances to remain small by past standards
- Are rising foreign hedging costs a threat to US Treasuries?
- Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16)
- Slow take-up to limit impact of Shenzhen-HK Connect
- Housing Starts (Jul. 16)
- Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
- Official UK House Price Index (Jun.)
- German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.)
- What can financial market volatility tell us about pricing?
- Czech GDP (Q2)
- Wholesale Prices (Jul.)
- Peru Economic Activity (Jun.)
- Will political tensions halt the outperformance of Russian bonds?
- Why our house price forecast is top of the pack
- Italy’s stagnation may soon turn to recession
- PGMs rally might have gone too far
- Thailand GDP (Q2)
- Gold bond scheme showing signs of success
- GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)
- Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought?
- Oil jumps on output freeze speculation
- Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16)
- Is China’s credit cycle starting to turn?
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16)
- GDP data highlight concerns about France and Italy
- Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit
- Retail Sales (Jul. 16)
- Stronger yen to drag on exports
- Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.)
- Have consumers shrugged off Brexit?
- China adds to the outperformance of EM equities
- Hong Kong GDP (Q2)
- Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)
- Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016)
- Chile & Peru MPCs hint that tightening done, but hikes still likely
- Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia?
- Lower rates to prop up Buy-to-Let demand
- How vulnerable are rents to an economic downturn?
- Malaysia GDP (Q2)
- Activity & Spending (Jul.)
- What would unconventional policy look like?
- Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains
- Dollar bond yields hit 2014 lows
- Q2 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends
- South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession
- Russia GDP (Q2 2016)
- Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.)
- UK government bond yields set to remain low
- Very low gilt yields are here to stay
- Russia GDP (Q2 2016)
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun. 2016)
- Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines
- Swedish Consumer Prices (July)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)
- A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports
- Moscow property about to turn a corner, albeit, slowly
- Bank of Korea’s rate pause to continue
- Singapore GDP (Q2 Revised)
- New Zealand – Heading to a low of at least 1.5% in New Zealand
- Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. 16)
- Brexit’s impact is already fading
- JOLT survey points to tightening labour market
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10th Aug. 16)
- OPEC production reaches another new record
- How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation?
- Brazil Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Ghana: Inflation headed down as economic imbalances unwind
- What’s behind the jump in US LIBOR?
- Will the BoE’s corporate bond buying make a difference?
- Will wage growth ever pick up?
- Rise in short-term interest rates is little to fear
- CML Lending Trends (2016 Q2)
- Commercial property investment (Jul.)
- No need to panic over maturing FX swaps
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug.)
- Machinery Orders (Jun.)
- How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation?
- Sterling set for further (welcome) declines
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Productivity slump even worse than previously feared
- Bank of England’s meaningful action boosts asset prices
- Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe
- Will the post-Brexit slump be as bad as the PMIs suggest?
- Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.)
- Angola: Gradual recovery after a painful adjustment
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.)
- Governor Rajan holds rates in final policy meeting
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
- Talks of oil production freeze too little too late
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.)
- Is the rental market losing steam?
- Is the rally in Brazil’s currency the real deal?
- Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.)
- Iron ore bucks weak China commodity imports
- Lower interest rates prompt reduced return targets
- Has the zinc rally further to go?
- German Industrial Production (Jun)
- Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures
- Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.)
- Trade & FX Reserves (Jul.)
- Economy Watchers Survey (Jul.)
- Commodities wobble on strong US jobs data
- Markets take strong payrolls in their stride
- Export growth muted even without a trade war
- Post-referendum chill starts to show
- Pace of consumption growth will inevitably slow
- Brexit Watch: Policy response should cushion hit to growth
- Central banks to remain net buyers of gold
- Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.)
- Will the MPC’s bazooka hit the target?
- Has the rally in coal prices burnt out?
- ECB set to follow BoE despite policy limitations
- Mozambique: Debt worries are overblown
- Halifax House Prices (Jul.)
- Russia’s labour market is hiding slack
- Assessing Japan’s fiscal stance
- Australian dollar punishing the RBA
- Indonesia GDP (Q2)
- Food prices set to rise after floods
- RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5%
- Referendum won’t solve Thailand’s problems
- Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.)
- Further gains would not store up problems
- Have sugar prices hit a sweet spot?
- South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC
- Would looser global monetary conditions push EMs too far?
- Limited Brexit impact, but growth slowing nonetheless
- World economy shrugs off Brexit vote
- Will the MPC inject fresh life into the housing market?
- Turkey’s failed coup adds pressure for retail rents to fall
- Russia CPI (Jul.)
- Could monetary policy prop up capital values?
- Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood
- The MPC delivers & signals more to come
- Few signs of financial stress as credit bubbles deflate
- GST reform a major step forward
- PBOC probably won’t cut rates or the RRR anytime soon
- How is Ireland’s economy holding up after the Brexit vote?
- Weaker currencies continue to sustain supply
- Australia Retail Sales (Jun.)
- Monsoon impact on inflation limited
- New Zealand – RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0%
- China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May/Jun.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (3rd Aug. 16)
- How would additional easing from the BoE affect UK markets?
- Currency policy still lacks clarity one year on from RMB panic
- Mortgage Applications (Jul.)
- No sign of an end to political uncertainty in Spain
- Uganda’s economy set for slowdown next year
- Surveys provide first signs of post-referendum slowdown
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (July)
- Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Jul.)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July)
- Manufacturing PMI (Jul. 2016)
- Whole Economy PMIs (Jul. 2016)
- Thailand holds policy rate, but cut likely soon
- Turkey CPI (Jul.)
- New Zealand Employment (Q2)
- Oil prices more likely to rise than fall
- A strong month for metals
- Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers)
- Will US equities shrug off a rebound in the dollar?
- What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of
- Will monetary policy drive the Aussie dollar lower?
- CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
- Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.)
- Paris offices shrug off France’s wider economic woes
- Brexit drag on transactions and prices to last until next year
- Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt
- Is the worst over for Indonesia and Malaysia?
- Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.)
- Stimulus package doesn’t let the BoJ off the hook
- Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
- Rates in Australia may yet have to fall to 1.0%
- Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Jun.)
- Rates to stay on hold as Rajan heads for the exit
- Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
- Global growth held up well in Q2
- EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3
- France’s Q2 stagnation likely to be more than a one-off
- ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2016)
- Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (July)
- Stars continue to align for EM equities
- What is behind the latest gains in EM equities?
- Italy and Ireland the losers from bank stress test
- Industrial metals steal the show
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July)
- Brazil: the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jul.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (July)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)
- PMIs (Jul.)
- Rates to reach new record lows
- GDP (Q2 1st Estimate)
- Yet more policy easing to come
- Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause
- US dollar weakness supports prices
- Brexit Watch: Growth slowed significantly around the vote
- Slower euro-zone GDP growth a sign of things to come
- Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble
- Yen still likely to fall back, even if the BoJ is not bold
- Lower rates should help lighten the mood
- GDP by Industry (May)
- Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) & Chile Activity (June)
- Dublin’s office pipeline unlikely to lead to oversupply
- How could fiscal policy be reset?
- Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is
- Recovery in EM growth pauses
- PBOC steps up FX interventions
- Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom
- US Treasuries, credit spreads and the hunt for yield
- The music stops for oil, but coal picks up the tune
- Mortgage Lending (Jun.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.)
- Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI (July)
- Lending to commercial property (Jun. 16)
- Asian markets set the pace in July
- Is municipal debt the next frontier for QQE
- Swedish GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
- Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable
- Is Pakistan ready for life without the IMF?
- Bank of Japan not done yet
- The bigger picture on inflation
- A snapshot of the services sector
- Taiwan GDP (Q2 Advanced)
- Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jun.)
- Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now
- Will the MPC deliver this time around?
- How big a threat are Italy’s banks?
- Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high
- Lat Am equities up despite softer commodities
- Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2)
- QE to get a new lease of life?
- Will the US stock market continue to weather a stronger dollar?
- Labour market remains in good health
- Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle has further to go
- German Flash CPI (Jul.)
- Africa: Naira finally breaking free
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (July)
- Investors turn positive on industrials
- RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2 16)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (July
- Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 16)
- Don’t over-interpret Greece’s glimmers of hope
- Stockholm offices represent good value despite historically low yields
- Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50%
- Fed edging toward a September rate hike
- Brazil turning the corner
- Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (27th Jul. 16)
- US Treasuries, corporate bonds and the search for yield
- Déjà vu for oil prices?
- Durable Goods (Jun.)
- Sentiment towards Irish property takes a hit, while Hungary shines
- Policymakers will struggle to boost economy
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.)
- Turkish markets start to stabilise
- New president of the Philippines makes encouraging start
- Don’t believe the fiscal hype
- Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (June)
- Small Business Confidence (Jul.)
- Australia Consumer Prices (Q2)
- Swedish GDP (Q2 16, 1st Estimate)
- Brushing off Brexit
- Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery
- Will there be a lasting divergence in UK and US monetary policies?
- Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (May/Jun.)
- Off-exchange stocks may plug any gaps
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
- Hungary’s MPC could still turn to rate cuts
- Tougher few months in prospect
- China and India’s gold imports (Jun.)
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun. 2016)
- Gulf equities lag behind
- Belgium among most exposed to Brexit fallout
- Korea GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
- Fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent BoJ from easing
- Gulf between Fed and BoJ likely to widen and weigh on the yen
- Global fallout from Brexit: one month on
- RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2)
- Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico?
- Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards
- Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth
- “Premature de-industrialisation”: red light or red herring?
- Stronger end to Q2
- Egypt: fresh devaluation on the way
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3)
- German Ifo Survey (July)
- How does Brexit affect our European commercial property forecasts?
- External Trade (Jun.)
- Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ
- Investors shrug off plunge in UK PMI
- Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable
- Extent of wildfire disruption about to become clearer
- One month after the referendum
- Early Brexit signals provide some comfort
- GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption
- Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May)
- Brexit Watch: Markets keep their cool despite slowdown signs
- Flash PMIs (Jul.)
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (July)
- Few signs of collapse in prices but risks loom
- Could the market talk itself into a correction?
- Taiwan’s struggles to continue
- After the coup…
- Capital Flows Monitor (June)
- Life after Brexit
- UK Flash PMIs (Jul.)
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July)
- Japan, Baron Munchausen and the debt swamp
- Shining a light on aluminium demand
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
- Capital injections too small to revive banking sector
- Dollar strength takes some steam out of prices
- Further upside for gold and silver prices
- Confidence takes a knock post-referendum
- Prospects for world trade growth worsen
- Will corporate bond spreads stay low?
- South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely
- Existing Home Sales (Jun.)
- Glut of oil products to weigh on demand for crude
- ECB set to act in September
- Brazil IPCA-15 (July)
- Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes
- Higher prices could dampen China’s metals imports
- Bank Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but further easing likely
- Low oil prices hitting home
- Bond market rally likely to run out of steam
- Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context
- Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jun.)
- What does Brexit mean for the public finances?
- Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty
- New Zealand – RBNZ hits out at high dollar
- Monetary Indicators Monitor
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (20th Jul. 16)
- Global Steel Production (Jun.)
- The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit
- ECB likely to ease policy further soon, if not this month
- Improving data point to September rate hike
- Global Aluminium Production (Jun.)
- What next for EM monetary policy?
- Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes
- Labour Market & BoE Agents’ Scores (May/Jun.)
- South Africa Consumer Prices (June)
- No signs of major stress in labour market
- Employment (May 2016)
- Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk
- Commodities benefit from greater risk appetite
- IMF changes its tune on Brexit
- Policy response should cushion the hit from leave vote
- We expect long-term Treasury yields to continue to climb
- S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure
- Russia Activity Data (Jun.)
- Housing Starts (Jun. 2016)
- Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.)
- Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.)
- German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
- Mainland Europe investment likely to be boosted by Brexit
- Official UK House Price Index (May.)
- Austerity now all but over
- New Zealand – New LVR rules raise the chance of rates going below 2.0%
- Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote
- Service sector remains healthy
- Nigeria: Rise in inflation has further to go
- Loose monetary policy to prop up growth
- Poor fundamentals likely to ensure that Turkish lira underperforms
- Brexit to push prime German property yields even lower
- EM export slump gradually easing
- The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup
- The nickel price rally could lose steam
- The MPC raises the stakes
- Export slump ends but sharp rebound unlikely
- Is the Bank of Japan already delivering “helicopter money”?
- New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2)
- Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop?
- Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.)
- Participation rate will fall further
- Brexit Watch: Tentative signs of post-referendum slowdown
- Hopes of policy stimulus boost industrial metals
- Labour market nearing full employment
- Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last?
- Unspectacular growth in China good enough for EM equities
- Peru Economic Activity (May)
- Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.)
- Manufacturing Sales (May)
- What to expect from Emerging Asia in 2017-18
- Mixed effect of Brexit on CEE property markets
- ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded
- Sterling slump cushions post-referendum hit to equities
- Euro-zone Trade (May) & Final CPI (Jun.)
- Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon
- Where to look for signs of Brexit spillovers
- Is “Helicopter Ben” heralding more easing?
- The part-time problem
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)
- Q2 GDP & June Activity
- South Africa’s Mine Production (May)
- Brexit vote adds to downside risks
- ECB may bide its time, but action needed very soon
- Colombia: Peace deal will improve medium-term outlook
- How much longer will corporate profits buoy the US stock market?
- Is there too much debt in the world?
- MPC must deliver in August
- Brexit will have limited impact on housing market
- Economic growth already fading again
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul 2016)
- South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q2
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun 2016)
- Strains in Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments starting to ease
- Trade tariffs pose limited threat to euro-zone exports
- Turkey Ind. Production & Current Account (May)
- Wholesale Prices (Jun.)
- Bank of Korea in wait-and-see mode
- Australia Labour Market (Jun.)
- Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced)
- Making the most of weaker currencies?
- Structural improvements mean EMs have more fiscal leeway
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Jul. 16)
- Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements
- UK MPC likely to ease policy despite calm after vote for Brexit
- Bank of Canada cuts GDP growth forecast
- How big is the threat from property?
- Post-Brexit housing market: when will we know?
- Weakening Italian economy to hit office rental growth
- Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.)
- Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains
- Another strong month for China’s commodity imports
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016)
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (May)
- Trade (Jun 2016)
- Malaysia jumps on easing bandwagon
- Ireland GDP (Q1)
- Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
- Slower global growth to weigh on PGM prices
- Hard evidence points to weakness in Saudi economy
- NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market
- EMs sail through headwinds
- Yen/dollar heading back to 110
- After the referendum – how will the housing market fare?
- Investment activity in H2 likely to be subdued
- Hungary revamps monetary framework…again
- Mexico Industrial Production (May 2016)
- Is the Nikkei about to be lifted by ‘helicopter money’?
- Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May)
- South Africa Manufacturing Output (May)
- Inflation to slow but stay above target
- Swedish Consumer Prices (June)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.)
- New Zealand – New Zealand dollar won’t continue to defy gravity
- Swedish Consumer Prices (June 16)
- The Netherlands will be hit harder than most by Brexit
- A cautionary (but still positive) note on Japanese equities
- How will policymakers respond to the Brexit vote?
- What will Russia’s recovery look like?
- Two-thirds majority no reason to cheer
- Will China worries resurface?
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
- Machinery Orders (May)
- Business investment not coming to the rescue
- Prices vulnerable to a reassessment of US rate outlook
- Consumer spending will continue to drive GDP growth
- Doves rule the roost despite strong US payrolls
- Labour Force Survey (June 2016)
- Employment Report (June 2016)
- Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape
- Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis?
- A Goldilocks depreciation?
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.)
- What options does Taiwan’s central bank have left?
- How could Brexit affect North Sea oil production?
- Trade (May) & GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul.)
- French Industrial Production & German Trade (May)
- A look ahead to 2018
- Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.)
- Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter
- Labour Cash Earnings (May)
- Why wait?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (7th Jul. 16)
- Markets take China’s ‘stealth’ devaluation in their stride Capital
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016)
- Weakness in official sector’s gold buying to be short-lived
- Floods add risks to inflation outlook
- Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual
- Nordic transaction levels on course to beat 2015
- Recovery loses some momentum in Q2
- Halifax House Prices (Jun.)
- FX reserves (Jun.)
- Industrial Production (May)
- EM pick-up to prove short-lived
- German Industrial Production (May)
- Brexit is a local, not global, shock
- Loss of AAA rating wouldn’t raise borrowing costs
- Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.)
- PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility
- Bank unlikely to act despite downgrade to GDP forecast
- Commodity currencies could make further gains
- Will ‘Brexit’ drive a new bull market in gold?
- Growth starting to slow
- Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now
- International Merchandise Trade (May)
- Will single-family housing starts ever recover?
- Mortgage Applications (Jun.)
- South Africa Business Confidence (June)
- How has Brexit affected our forecasts?
- Is sterling a good indicator of global Brexit risks?
- Don’t panic about the pound
- Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations
- German industrial yields to fall despite looking relatively expensive
- Revisiting our Emerging Europe forecasts
- Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations
- Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (June)
- RBA not too worried by political uncertainty
- What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions?
- Passage of Goods and Services Tax edging closer
- Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May)
- Headwinds to QQE intensifying
- Brexit vote not a game-changer for world economy
- Will Egypt turn to the IMF?
- Palm oil prices to fall further
- Sterling’s slide boosts UK equities
- Sterling likely to fall further (which would be no bad thing)
- Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand
- CoreLogic House Prices (May)
- Germany won’t suffer most from Brexit vote
- How concerning is the news from open-ended funds?
- FPC announces action to support bank lending
- Terrorism poses a threat to Bangladesh’s long-term prospects
- Rebound in EM equities set to continue
- What next for EM equities?
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (June)
- Brexit impact will be ultimately positive for euro-zone prime property
- China’s data flaws extend beyond GDP
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jun.)
- Aluminium demand is stronger than often thought
- Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)
- Turkey CPI (Jun.)
- What does the election mean for the economy and markets?
- Prices rally into July
- Brexit vote has a silver lining
- Commodities brush off Brexit blues
- EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- Will H2 2016 be as kind to UK financial assets as H1?
- How far will inflation rise?
- Brexit Watch: One week on
- What scope do European cities have to profit from any Brexit job shifts?
- How dark are the clouds over London’s skyline?
- Brazil Ind. Prod. (May) & Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- Will silver continue to outshine gold?
- Brexit to hit France harder than Germany
- Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed
- China’s move up the value chain – what it means for Korea
- China concerns could soon replace Brexit fears
- What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector?
- Falling oil supplies trump Brexit concerns
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jun.)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Manufacturing PMIs (June)
- Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen?
- Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)
- PMIs (Jun.)
- Households can cope with lower wealth
- Tankan (Q2)
- Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (May)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.)
- Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets
- Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries
- Why the recovery in the markets and what next?
- GDP by Industry (Apr.)
- Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery
- Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July
- New market forecasts in the wake of the “Brexit” vote
- Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote?
- Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets
- What have we learned since the referendum?
- New Argentine GDP data look plausible…but point to recession
- What next for monetary policy in Taiwan?
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & German Retail Sales (May)
- National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1)
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
- Emerging European markets underperform after Brexit vote
- A new era of very low inflation
- Industrial Production (May)
- MENA countries go calling to the IMF
- China’s markets calm after Brexit
- MENA countries go calling to the IMF
- MENA region set for weakest growth since the 1980s
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Markets recover after Brexit jolt
- Post-Brexit sell-off unlikely to push up inflation in the EM world
- Oil demand to rise, despite Brexit
- Brexit may not delay the next US rate hike for very long
- Brexit shouldn’t be a game-changer for the Fed
- After Brexit, will Quitaly be next?
- How much has “Brexit” changed prospects for monetary policy?
- Post-Brexit EM market moves likely to be driven by Fed & China
- German Flash CPI (Jun.)
- A more subdued outlook for China’s copper demand
- Housing market activity finally picking up
- Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) & Mortgage Lending (May.)
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (June)
- Asian markets shrug-off Brexit
- Ratings upgrade in Hungary will outweigh potential Brexit fallout
- Lending to commercial property (May)
- Would FX intervention halt the strengthening of the yen?
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (May)
- Small Business Confidence (Jun.)
- Brexit volatility won’t prompt July rate cut
- Further FDI reform will prove harder to implement
- Retail Sales (May)
- EM recovery continues
- Is the China crisis over?
- Housing market activity finally picking up
- How much of a lift will a weaker currency provide to UK equities?
- Assessing the political fallout on CEE from Brexit
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
- What to make of Korea’s stimulus package?
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.)
- Electric cars could be a game-changer for base metals
- Sterling & UK equities – no 1992 redux
- South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be
- Second-quarter GDP growth looks good
- Vietnam GDP (Q2)
- Brexit roils Lat Am markets but economic fallout limited
- Brexit not a major threat
- “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions
- How does markets’ Brexit shock compare to past crises?
- Leave vote will weaken spending, but not dramatically so
- Recovery still elusive
- Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth
- How dramatic are recent market moves?
- Economy approaching full employment
- Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one
- Putting recent market moves into perspective
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
- Who will succeed Governor Rajan at the RBI?
- Has Abenomics failed?
- China and India’s gold imports (May)
- Economic growth continues to misfire
- Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited
- Will the calm continue after the UK’s vote for a “Brexit”?
- A relatively muted response to Brexit
- Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up
- Durable Goods (May)
- Which country might be next to hold an EU referendum?
- Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy
- Immediate impact of Brexit limited for European property
- Brexit, EMs and some common questions
- Sri Lanka steady for now but raising rates soon
- What will the policymakers do?
- ECB needs to act decisively
- The view from the ground – Q2 2016
- “Brexit” is not a disaster for the world economy
- Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength
- Global Markets Update – Has the “Brexit” storm already passed?
- UK vote for ‘Brexit’ not a game-changer for commodities
- Currency moves, not economic links, main Brexit concern
- BBA Mortgage Lending (May.)
- Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash
- German Ifo Survey (June)
- Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices
- Brexit vote rattles EMs
- Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU?
- Asian economies and markets should shrug off Brexit
- UK vote raises longer-term risks to Eastern Europe
- UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe
- Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy
- What will the Philippines look like under Duterte?
- Does the absence of an easing bias rule out more rate cuts?
- ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece
- Financial risks continue to build in China
- New Home Sales (May)
- Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jun.)
- A brief guide to referendum night
- Brexit Watch: Markets expect voters to reject Brexit
- $50pb oil still leaves Venezuela in deep trouble
- Another month of moderation
- Africa sinking?
- Philippines: interest rates to remain low for some time yet
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June)
- Norges Bank to cut interest rates in September
- Rise in Athens retail rents doesn’t signal a wider market revival
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Egyptian markets suffer amid balance of payments concerns
- What might a ‘Brexit’ vote mean for the yen?
- The wait is over – will the UK vote to leave or stay in the EU?
- Existing Home Sales (May)
- CEE markets focus on Brexit risks
- Brexit Watch: All eyes on final flurry of opinion polls
- Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg?
- EM growth starting to turn a corner
- Amsterdam office rents set to shrug off high vacancy rate
- Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts
- South Africa Consumer Prices (May)
- Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited
- Underlying inflation to remain low
- Should the BoJ become more flexible?
- Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg?
- Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts
- Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2016)
- Would a “Brexit” lead to a rout in emerging market currencies?
- Global Steel Production (May)
- Brexit Watch: Polls and bookmakers still at odds
- Will further political uncertainty in Spain derail the recovery?
- Hungary hints at further unconventional easing
- Saudi economy stagnates as austerity takes its toll
- What is going to move markets before the Referendum result?
- Would a Brexit trigger the ECB’s OMTs?
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.)
- How significant is the slide in inflation expectations?
- German ZEW (Jun.)
- Capital Flows Monitor (May)
- China’s metals imports treading water
- Public Finances (May)
- Markets calm as Governor Rajan heads for the exit
- Will leisure’s poor rental run be sustained?
- Are investors right to be targeting Manchester?
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
- Fading Brexit fears to return the focus to the Fed, and China
- Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit?
- Brexit Watch: Markets bounce as Leave loses poll lead
- Russia Activity Data (May)
- Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect
- Global Aluminium Production (May)
- Increased US drilling activity to limit upside for oil prices
- Rising consumer spending to lift Bucharest retail rents
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May)
- Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor
- External trade (May)
- How will the UK’s vote on EU membership affect the markets?
- All about Brexit
- Macri makes inroads into Argentina’s deficit but more work to do
- Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor
- Housing Starts (May.)
- Copenhagen industrial yields set for substantial falls by 2018
- House price gains fuelled by increasingly risky mortgages
- Consumer Prices (May)
- Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery?
- Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May)
- Global monetary policy set to be even looser for longer
- Is average normal for US equities?
- Brexit would still shock markets, despite shift in polls
- Brighter times ahead for India’s gold demand
- Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global
- Asian consumers facing growing headwinds
- China would shrug off a Brexit vote
- Are renewables jumping the queue?
- A Brexit would force the ECB into action
- Brexit uncertainty not weighing on consumer spending
- Iron ore prices have further to fall
- Revisiting the risks from populism
- Will banks’ falling profits undermine lending?
- Australia need not fear a Brexit
- BoP data show further strengthening in external position
- Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery?
- Industrial and precious metals prices diverge
- Vote for Brexit may prove to be a damp squib
- Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount
- Three reasons not to panic over ‘Brexit’
- What to expect after the referendum result
- Will Greek debt ever be sustainable?
- Brexit uncertainty bites as referendum looms
- Consumer Prices (May)
- Why can’t home sellers extract higher prices?
- Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC
- Retail Sales (May.)
- Africa: Economic giants now contracting
- SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit
- Bank of Japan to provide more easing next month
- Export slump close to an end but long-term prospects subdued
- Australia Labour Market (May)
- New Zealand GDP (Q1)
- SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit
- Fed moves the goal posts yet again
- Energy Data Response
- Industrial Production (May)
- Peru Economic Activity (Apr.)
- Are PMIs still the most useful measures of global growth?
- Fed inaction unlikely to last long
- Slower employment gains to weigh on Spanish office rental growth
- First reflections on Temer’s first month
- Sri Lanka GDP (Q1)
- Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption
- How would Brexit affect Sweden?
- Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible
- Euro-zone Trade (Apr.)
- Employment (Apr.)
- Labour Market Data (Apr./May)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
- Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
- How would Brexit affect Sweden?
- A new equilibrium in the US stock market
- Prospects for consumer spending remain fairly bright
- Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease
- No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey
- How low will global bond yields go?
- Negative yields to boost gold’s appeal as a reserve asset
- What would Brexit mean for Ireland?
- Retail Sales (May)
- Official UK House Price Index (Apr.)
- Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (May)
- S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May)
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
- Is the slowdown in investment as dramatic as it seems?
- Uncertain times ahead
- Wholesale Prices (May)
- Swedish Consumer Prices (May 16)
- OPEC point to balanced market by the end of the year
- Brexit would still be a surprise to markets, despite latest polls
- Peru’s election confirms continuation of market-friendly policy
- Inflation expectations are rising not falling
- Consumer Prices (May)
- Activity & Spending (May)
- Falling underlying inflation to require more easing
- “Brexit” risks coming into focus
- Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip
- UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.)
- Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances
- Are resurfacing global growth fears causing bond market rally?
- Energy production other shoe to drop
- Labour Force Survey (May)
- Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.)
- EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote
- Retail rental growth to cool in Italy
- Industrial Production (Apr.)
- Russian MPC resumes easing cycle
- Should Asia worry about Brexit?
- Euro 2016 unlikely to kick off French recovery
- How big a boost might “Brexit” provide to gold?
- Record-low gilt yields reflect global factors
- How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship
- Is a rise in inflation “baked in the cake”?
- French & Italian Industrial Production (Apr.)
- Turkey GDP (Q1) & Current Account (Apr.)
- Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics
- Hot housing fires up policy debate
- Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates
- Bouncing back
- The global fall-out from a vote for Brexit
- What would “Brexit” mean for commodities?
- Mexico Consumer Prices (May)
- Gold rebounds as US real yields hit one-year low
- Low inflation to persist almost everywhere
- “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade
- Nigerian oil output disruptions are another wildcard for prices
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.)
- South Africa: Key sectors improve at start of Q2
- Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia
- Remain vote would bring rate hike back onto agenda
- Why has stronger credit not lifted growth?
- Trade (Apr.)
- RICS Residential Market Survey (May.)
- Egypt Consumer Prices (May)
- What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans
- Consumer & Producer Prices (May)
- Machinery Orders (Apr.)
- New Zealand – Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Fed won’t move until labour market uncertainty clears
- How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit?
- What next for tin?
- Will the 10-year German Bund yield turn negative?
- Weather forecasts heat up US natural gas prices
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (May)
- Commercial property investment (May)
- A new official UK house price index
- China’s commodity imports holding up well
- South Africa: Sharp contraction very worrying sign
- Are ECB corporate bond purchases already a success?
- Industrial Production (Apr.)
- Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.)
- Trade (May)
- Economy Watchers Survey (May)
- Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut
- GDP (Q1 Revised)
- Causes and consequences of a lower US equity risk premium
- Capital value growth set to slow
- Prime yields still some way from their floor
- Another reason why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued
- Slump in investment dragged growth down in Q1
- Should European markets be more worried about Brexit?
- CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.)
- First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan”
- Rally in coal prices likely to be smothered
- Counting the cost of Brazil’s credit binge
- Iceland GDP (Q1)
- Halifax House Prices (May.)
- Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1)
- German Industrial Production (Apr.)
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)
- RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end
- RBA treading water in uncharted territory
- Iceland GDP (Q1 16)
- Set for a slow recovery
- Stocks look comfortable, for now
- The future still looks bright for the US dollar
- Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway
- Home sales finally making some headway
- Are central bankers going soft on their inflation targets?
- Can EM equities continue to outperform?
- Russia CPI (May)
- Slowdown in underlying inflation should rattle BoJ
- Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers
- GDP growth will benefit from oil price rebound
- Whole Economy PMIs (May)
- Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway
- Colombia GDP (Q1)
- When bad news is good news…
- Consumption growth likely to slow
- Peru’s presidential election: three key risks
- International Merchandise Trade (Apr.)
- All eyes on the Fed and the UK referendum
- EM equities buoyed by soft US Employment Report
- Rise in inventory-to-sales ratio not a recession signal
- Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy
- Strong dollar weighs on precious metals prices
- Referendum uncertainty putting the brakes on growth
- Employment Report (May)
- Brexit Watch: PMIs show uncertainty biting
- Investors turn more cautious
- QE expansion uneven across the euro-zone
- Housing market to cool regardless of Brexit vote
- Will Vietnam’s exports continue to boom?
- Markit/CIPS Report on Services (May)
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May.)
- House price pressures appear to be easing
- Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE
- More workers but less work
- Migrant workers reveal strains across economy
- First quarter good, second quarter not so good
- Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Deflation persists
- Regional growth to strengthen as Russia exits recession
- Fed, Brexit, China – which is the biggest threat to EMs?
- ECB holds fire but more easing still likely
- What are the risks for EMs?
- Is mortgage debt set for another dangerous boom?
- Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.)
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May)
- Key events to watch in the run-up to the EU referendum
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May)
- Consumer Confidence (May)
- Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.)
- Why interest rates may have to fall to 1%
- Further cuts to repo rate unlikely
- Domestic strength can’t keep propping up Emerging Asia
- New Zealand – RBNZ is not done yet
- Supply concerns defy the dollar
- EM PMIs lacklustre but stable
- Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (May)
- Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
- Which currencies are fundamentally overvalued?
- ISM Manufacturing Index (May)
- Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving?
- Mortgage Applications (May)
- A fresh look at currency misalignment
- Brazil GDP (Q1)
- How would the ECB respond to a Brexit?
- Lending to commercial property (Apr.)
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.)
- Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (May) & Money and Credit (Apr.)
- Delay in sales tax hike brightens outlook for 2017
- Latest news from China unsettles commodities
- Nationwide HPI & Mortgage Lending (May/Apr)
- Turkey: defying gravity…for now
- Manufacturing PMIs (May)
- Manufacturing PMI (May)
- Manufacturing PMIs (May)
- PMIs (May)
- Australia GDP (Q1)
- Capital Expenditure (Q1)
- Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over
- What difference would MSCI inclusion make?
- How low could gold and silver go?
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
- Asian currencies slide on Fed fears
- Conf. Board Cons. Conf. (May) & Pers. Spending (Apr.)
- Monetary aggregates and credit continue to expand steadily
- Should we worry about China’s “A-shares” and the MSCI?
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.)
- Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment?
- Will “A-shares” make the grade and would it matter?
- Italy’s recovery losing speed
- GDP (Q1 2016)
- GDP (Q1)
- South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review
- Cobalt prices should benefit from strong demand
- Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage
- Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
- DeMontford Commercial Property Lending Survey (H2 2015)
- Danish GDP (Q1)
- Few surprises expected at OPEC meeting
- Small Business Confidence (May)
- Industrial Production, Household Spending & Unemployment (Apr.)
- Danish GDP (Q1 16)
- Nigeria: Crisis escalates
- Another look at the ailing banking sector
- Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally
- Retail Sales (Apr.)
- What explains the contrast in Indian and Brazilian equities?
- Rising oil doesn’t necessarily lift all prices
- Q2 slowdown isn’t just about Alberta wildfires
- What are the prospects for Latin American oil?
- Four reasons for (cautious) optimism on the world economy
- Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed
- Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes
- EM growth edges up for second consecutive month
- IPF Consensus Forecasts (May)
- Brexit Watch: Recession warnings haven’t spooked investors
- Silver price to benefit from increasing focus on solar
- Even a small Brexit hit could leave fiscal rules broken
- Nigeria: Analysing President Buhari’s first year
- Usual suspects repeating the same old mistakes
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May)
- How much have shortages held back housebuilding?
- How will the sales tax decision affect the outlook?
- Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- Stuck in transition
- Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1)
- Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole
- More musings on US and European equities
- April data dampen hopes for strong rebound
- The contrasting outlook for new and existing home sales
- Digging deeper into US and European stock market valuations
- Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind
- Further scope for German office values to rise
- Verizon strike to hit May payrolls hard
- Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all
- Durable Goods (Apr.)
- Staying in the EU would not guarantee a spike in investment deals
- Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort
- China and India’s gold imports (Apr.)
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr.) and Housebuilding (Q1)
- GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1)
- Five quick points on Brent at $50
- Lat Am currencies rattled more than most
- Egypt’s tourism sector stares into the abyss
- Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Renminbi weakness needs to be seen in perspective
- Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy
- Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics
- Russia’s Eurobond reveals sanctions premium
- How will the UK referendum affect global monetary policy?
- High stocks to weigh on the nickel price, for now
- How will EM currencies handle the Fed?
- Rental and capital value growth moderate
- Can UK equities weather a Brexit?
- What is going on with the renminbi?
- Will EM currencies underperform as the Fed hikes?
- June rate hike far from a done deal
- Eurogroup’s Greek debt pledges fall a long way short
- German Ifo Survey (May)
- The implications of a vote to stay in the EU
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- PM Modi’s first two years end on a high note
- Singapore GDP (Q1 Revised)
- Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk
- Valuations could protect EM equities from the Fed
- Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility
- New Home Sales (Apr.)
- How has the demand for Treasuries changed?
- Brexit not a major threat to world trade
- Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (May)
- Have Dublin office yields fallen too far?
- Is Europe heading back into crisis?
- Hungary ends easing cycle, Turkey’s has further to run
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Austrian result offers only brief respite from far-right’s rise
- German ZEW Survey (May) & GDP Breakdown (Q1)
- Public Finances (Apr.)
- Rupee to weaken only gradually
- Manufacturing PMI points to sharp slowdown in Q2
- How and where we differ from the consensus
- Flash Manufacturing PMIs (May)
- Will the US dollar continue to recover?
- Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk
- Russia Activity Data (Apr.)
- Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone
- Would Brexit really be a game-changer for global markets?
- Turning bearish on lead demand
- Tunisia: NT outlook subdued, but LT prospects improving
- What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe?
- China’s metals import demand remained strong in April
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May)
- How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up?
- US-style collapse unlikely, but house prices will still fall
- External Trade (Apr.)
- Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength
- Existing Home Sales (Apr.)
- Fed jitters take some of the steam out of the rally
- Nigeria GDP (Q1)
- Global Steel Production (Apr.)
- Supply disruptions fuel oil price rally
- Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation
- How do the valuations of US and euro-zone equities compare?
- A bumpy ride ahead
- Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.)
- Brexit Watch: Remain poll surge eases markets’ Brexit jitters
- Economic uncertainty slows yield falls and rental growth
- Mexico GDP (Q1)
- Marked slowdown in capital value growth
- Brazil IPCA-15 (May)
- Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)
- Sri Lanka keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon
- Consumer back on form
- EM central banks pause for breath
- Gold price to end the year higher despite Fed tightening
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy?
- South East Asia continues to lead the way
- How long can pensioners keep spending?
- Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries
- Will markets take the resumption of US rate hikes in their stride?
- South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle
- What if the Fed does hike again in June?
- Consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty
- Frontier market governments push for reform
- What to expect from next month’s OPEC meeting
- Key takeaways from London Platinum Week
- Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.)
- Bank Indonesia opens door to further easing
- Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do
- Shifting into lower gear
- Retail Sales (Apr.)
- State election results brighten reform outlook
- Philippines GDP (Q1)
- Australia Labour Market (Apr.)
- Can China afford to bail out its banks?
- Machinery Orders (Mar.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- What can homebuilder share prices tell us about housing starts?
- Will “other forces” keep US Treasury yields down?
- What to expect from the G7 finance ministers
- Any post-referendum sterling rally to be short-lived
- An interest rate cut still on the cards later this year
- Will US Treasury yields stay low again, despite Fed tightening?
- Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1)
- April data not all gloomy
- South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause
- Is the rally in US steel prices sustainable?
- UK Commercial Property Data Response
- Will Dutch consumers keep on spending?
- Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.)
- Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes
- GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
- Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.)
- Will rising Treasury yields rattle EMs next year?
- Investors remain broadly positive
- Has the threat of deflation disappeared?
- Should EMs fear rising US Treasury yields next year?
- French strikes darken the economic outlook
- Sentiment towards precious metals continues to improve
- Housing Starts (Apr.)
- Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.)
- Can the rest of MENA weather the slowdown in the Gulf?
- Euro-zone Trade (Mar.)
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.)
- Can Tsai rescue Taiwan’s economy?
- What’s going on with EM currencies?
- Czech GDP (Q1)
- Tax amendments another success for Modi government
- Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme
- Will its overvaluation prevent the US dollar from rising?
- Three reasons to be wary of the latest surge in oil prices
- Peru Economic Activity (Mar.)
- Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes
- Will 2017 be a worse year for US Treasuries than 2016?
- Has London’s housing market reached a precipice?
- Philippines: shift to interest rate corridor not a game changer
- Russia GDP (Q1 2016)
- Mounting risks bode ill for Italy
- What next for US Treasuries?
- Falling property yields draw closer to fair value
- Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return
- Wholesale Prices (Apr.)
- Thailand GDP (Q1)
- Activity & Spending (Apr.)
- Import weakness to keep trade deficit in check
- Latest OPEC Report offers no surprises
- Oil up on supply outages, metals down on demand fears
- How will the MPC respond to the EU referendum?
- Fed falling further behind the curve
- Market turmoil following “Brexit” may be much less than feared
- Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May)
- More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects
- Brexit Watch: Slowdown isn’t just about Brexit
- Commodities Watch – WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals
- Euro-zone growth will slow from here
- Is Thailand about to boil over again?
- Will copper continue to underperform oil?
- Construction Output (Mar.)
- Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prov.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q1)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)
- Is the BoJ really running out of assets to buy?
- Peru holds rates but hikes still on the horizon
- Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2016)
- Malaysia GDP (Q1)
- Korea likely to loosen monetary policy soon
- Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key
- WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals
- Will Latin America continue to outperform?
- Brexit fears still weighing on sterling despite rally
- Nigeria: FX comments, fuel price hikes offer hints of reform
- Q1 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trend
- Will oil continue to outperform?
- How keen are households to buy homes?
- Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.)
- Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth
- European gas prices will undershoot oil price recovery
- MPC strikes a gloomy note on Brexit risks
- Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.)
- South Africa: Very weak showing in key sectors
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.)
- Low inflation means rates will remain low in the Philippines
- How big a deal is immigration from the EU?
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.)
- Brazil: Senate votes to put Dilma on trial, what comes next?
- Limited further upside for Swiss office values
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.)
- Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut on the way
- Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength
- What explains the widespread falls in property values in March?
- EM credit bubbles deflating, but risks building in China
- Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut on the way
- Is the economic slowdown about more than Brexit?
- Buyers continue to outnumber sellers
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout
- What do the low level of lettings instructions tell us?
- Will impeachment in Brazil unleash another big rally?
- London construction: risk or vote of confidence?
- Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon?
- Greek debt talks won’t provide much relief
- Stockbuild in China reflects optimism about demand
- Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed
- Industrial Production (Mar.)
- EM export recovery continues
- Thailand’s rate pause to continue
- Australia Consumer Confidence (May)
- Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed
- How much of a threat are electric cars to PGMs demand?
- NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal no labour market deterioration
- On the relative prospects for bonds in the US and elsewhere
- C&SEE GDP growth slower, but still strong, in Q1
- Oil production outages supporting prices, for now
- Africa: Economic shock not over yet
- Copper still waiting in the wings
- Turkey Current Account (Mar.)
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- Bankruptcy reform would be a major step forward
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.)
- Commercial property investment (Apr)
- Trade (Mar.)
- German Industrial Production (Mar.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
- Central banks’ gold demand held up well in Q1
- How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy?
- Where next for the Philippines?
- What next for US corporate bonds?
- Will Ireland’s new Government keep the recovery going?
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk
- China’s commodity import demand remains robust
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
- Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change
- Halifax House Prices (Apr.)
- Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.)
- Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
- Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.)
- Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.)
- Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities
- What to make of April’s US Employment Report?
- Brexit Watch: Uncertainty hits business surveys
- Investor exuberance wanes
- Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
- Thoughts on the rise of political risks in EMs
- Incoming data point to second-quarter pick-up
- March data show spike in Transactions
- US to regain momentum, euro-zone to slow
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- Employment Report (Apr.)
- Denmark and Sweden industrial rents set to outgrow Norway
- Resilient sentiment suggests economic gloom overdone
- EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic
- Precious metals rally on dollar weakness
- Would a tax on firms’ cash revive investment?
- Is the Philippines about to shoot itself in the foot?
- Get used to low underlying inflation
- How Lowe will interest rates go?
- Inflation to remain close to target
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)
- Will the US stock market run out of steam?
- Brexit uncertainty starting to take its toll
- MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum
- The weakness of the Turkish lira is probably far from over
- Is the worst now over for the manufacturing sector?
- Further signs that the Saudi economy is struggling
- Oil price rally could be sowing seeds of its own destruction
- Romanian MPC remains cautious, Czech MPC stays dovish
- Inflation picks up
- A note of caution on the recent price rallies
- Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy
- Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Apr.)
- Strength of growth in Q1 unlikely to be sustained
- Polish deflation: less than meets the eye?
- Inflation to remain close to target
- Likely resignation of Turkey’s PM raises authoritarianism fears
- Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.)
- Yen reaches fresh highs against dollar
- Is the recent rally in PGM prices sustainable?
- Consumers to weather Brexit uncertainty well
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- EMs, financial risks and the Fed
- EM equities: time to call Mayday?
- How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk?
- International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1)
- International Merchandise Trade (Mar.)
- Mortgage Applications (Apr.)
- About that fiscal hole in Brazil…
- Is consumer spending stronger than we thought?
- Has the rally in “junk” bonds gone too far?
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.)
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Apr.)
- Egypt: pressures on pound build, further devaluation on the cards
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
- Indonesia GDP (Q1)
- New Zealand Labour Market (Q1)
- EM industry still in better shape than at start of the year
- It’s all about the dollar
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.)
- Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain
- What to expect on EU referendum day and shortly after
- Will the US dollar’s slide end any time soon?
- Colombia: Tightening cycle close to an end
- Are Portugal’s fiscal problems over?
- CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)
- Investor outlook remains upbeat, despite fall in Q1 activity
- Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.)
- Turkey CPI (Apr.)
- Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.)
- Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5%
- Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
- PMIs (Apr.)
- SLOS shows contrast between business and consumer lending
- ISM Manufacturing (Apr.)
- Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
- Oil leads the way up
- Almost all news is good news
- Brexit Watch: Slowdown not all due to Brexit fears
- Putting the retail sector’s productivity problem in context
- Positive capital markets drivers will support further yield falls
- Would further US labour market strength be good for the S&P 500?
- Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan
- Anti-immigration stance would hurt Austria
- Headwinds restraining GDP growth will fade in H2
- Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.)
- Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.)
- How much of Q1 slowdown is due to Brexit fears?
- Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained
- Corporate bond spreads widen
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.)
- Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off
- Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles
- Growth in Sri Lanka to slow despite IMF deal
- Global growth edged up in Q1, and is set to recover further
- Could Asia’s central banks get unconventional?
- Medium-term prospects remain bright
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.)
- Mortgage Lending (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.)
- Lending to commercial property (Mar.)
- Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
- Spare capacity to widen further
- Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating
- Taiwan GDP (Q1 Advanced)
- Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed
- Egypt central bank holds rates, but further hikes likely soon
- Will the Fed spoil the party?
- Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets
- Has property finally turned the corner?
- Will EM petro-currencies continue to outperform?
- Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome
- What next for negative rates?
- Africa: IMF takes centre stage
- GDP (Q1 1st Estimate)
- Malaysian ringgit rebound continues
- German Flash CPI (Apr.)
- BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth
- Don’t get carried away with Saudi Arabia’s reform plans
- EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.)
- German retail rents to rise despite moderation in consumption growth
- Nationwide (Apr.) and Land Registry (Mar.) House Price
- Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay?
- RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1)
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.)
- Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully
- Bank of Japan will be forced to ease more before long
- Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon
- Dollars go from helping to hindering
- Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- New Zealand – Rates will reach a floor of 1.75% in New Zealand
- Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed
- Fed less worried by global risks; open to June rate hike
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Surge in net external debt a long-term negative for dollar
- Investors cannot ignore oversupply of iron ore much longer
- More to relative equity performance than currency fluctuations
- How long will the rebound continue?
- Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam
- Warsaw offices rental value falls far from over
- Peru’s copper boom set to continue
- Q1 saw fastest growth since 2014
- Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q1)
- CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.)
- Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
- Fall in inflation could prompt cut to 1.75%
- Small Business Confidence (Apr.)
- Australia Consumer Prices (Q1)
- Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets
- Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb)
- Global monetary conditions still loose
- Hungary’s MPC a little more cautious, but further rate cuts likely
- Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal
- How will the contrast in Fed and BoJ policies affect the markets?
- Durable Goods (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.)
- Autocatalyst demand to boost PGM prices
- Has the rally in zinc prices got further to go?
- Sri Lanka holds rates, but hikes likely soon
- China and India’s gold imports (Mar.)
- Is helicopter money an option in Japan?
- BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.)
- Turkish bond market rallies
- When will pork price inflation peak?
- Currency effects begin to unwind
- Korea GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
- New Home Sales (Mar.)
- China’s credit growth is a concern, but not a crisis
- Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound
- Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” provides few new details
- Oil rally helps to lift pessimism over Russia
- Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2)
- German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
- What would the impact be if Governor Rajan stepped down?
- Rents and capital values lose momentum
- Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Bank to announce more easing this week
- Brexit Watch: Uncertainty starts to weigh
- Investor enthusiasm drives prices higher
- Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
- Are Argentine bonds really that attractive?
- Canadian dollar rally isn’t a major threat to GDP growth
- Slowdown in GDP growth won’t be sustained
- Will a rise in saving slow the consumer recovery?
- Gilt yields to rise regardless of referendum outcome
- Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.)
- Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts?
- Both sides overstate effect of Brexit on trade
- Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue
- Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.)
- Are Asia’s policymakers running out of fiscal firepower?
- Is the stronger yen actually a boon for Japan?
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
- Banking sector still requires wider reform
- Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth
- Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now)
- World trade ticks up in February
- Monetary policy divergence to resume
- ECB policy should help to weaken the euro in time
- A mixed bag for Chinese agricultural imports in Q1
- Would Brexit raise mortgage rates?
- Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits
- Will Saudi Arabia flood the oil market again?
- Rebound in oil prices is indeed a game-changer
- Capital Flows Monitor
- Some respite for commodity producers
- Spending growth moderates
- Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets
- A strong first quarter for China’s metals imports
- No cuts in Indonesia likely until new policy rate comes into force
- China’s PGM imports point to strong demand in Q1
- Further falls needed to bring Moscow retail rents back to reality
- Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.)
- FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden
- IMF behind the curve on EM capital flows
- Bond market rally could soon run out of steam
- Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity
- New Zealand – Rates may have to fall to 1.75%
- FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
- New Turkish central bank governor likely to cut rates further
- Will the dollar’s boost to US equities last?
- Prime Belgian retail rents to defy soft consumer fundamentals
- Global Aluminium Production (Mar.)
- Ditching of Chinese subsidies unlikely to rein in exports
- How will the dollar affect the US stock market?
- Will further Fed hikes trigger a renewed surge in the dollar?
- Global Steel Production (Mar.)
- Fed to leave door open to June rate hike
- Mexico: time to throw in the towel?
- House price inflation to converge on earnings growth
- Investors turn positive on agriculturals again
- RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1)
- Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound
- Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.)
- Employment (Feb)
- South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook
- External trade (Mar.)
- US equity valuations still not that stretched
- 5 questions on Argentina’s return to the bond market
- What does China’s currency policy imply for the US dollar?
- Prices rebound in April
- “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat
- Getting used to lower growth
- Silver playing catch-up with gold
- Housing Starts (Mar.)
- Is the world economy nearing “stall speed”?
- Russia Activity Data (Mar.)
- Signs of a rebound in Q1
- Will the Fed let inflation overshoot?
- German ZEW (Apr.)
- Why Ukraine still needs the IMF
- Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)
- Monetary policy loosening in Korea more likely than not
- Government faces uphill task to meet export target
- Treasury’s Brexit report rests on some pessimistic assumptions
- Why didn’t Brazilian markets rally more?
- Little reason to expect office rents in Milan to jump
- Doha disappoints, but oil market likely to rebalance anyway
- Greece’s first bailout review still not a done deal
- Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha
- Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets
- Central London retail values to hold on to recent gains
- Earthquake unlikely to have major economic impact
- Property revival shoring up growth, for now
- Wholesale Prices (Mar.)
- New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1)
- All eyes on Doha
- What next for Bunds?
- Are vehicle sales nearing the finish line?
- Industrial Prod’n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.)
- More than meets the eye to new Bank Indonesia policy rate
- What might the Grand Paris project mean for CBD property?
- Manufacturing Sales (Feb.)
- Some things to keep in mind about Q1 GDP
- Brexit fears not weighing heavily on bank lending
- Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth
- World economy to benefit from slightly looser fiscal policy
- Chinese data point to robust commodity demand
- Euro-zone Trade (Feb.)
- German Bund yields – how low can they go?
- EM export decline easing off
- Support for the price of cocoa should fade later this year
- Mine supply to tighten across all precious metals
- Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year
- Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits
- Will inflation ever reach 2%?
- Export downturn set to drag on
- Q1 GDP, March Activity & Credit
- What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand?
- Deal or no deal in Doha?
- EM markets benefit from resurgent commodity prices
- Sterling remains vulnerable
- Policymakers running out of ammunition
- Mortgage applications are understating housing demand
- Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Record take-up points to logistics rental growth across Germany
- Will negative interest rates lead to higher savings?
- MPC gives warnings about EU referendum
- South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.)
- Commercial property investment (Mar)
- South Africa: Mining figures suggest weak Q1 GDP growth
- What is the end-game for Japan’s debt problem?
- Stock movements more related to supply than demand
- RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.)
- Is consumer spending about to take off?
- Elections in Korea deal further blow to reform hopes
- Australia Labour Market (Mar.)
- Further policy loosening in Singapore unlikely
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Argentina ruling clears way for return to bond market
- The election and its implications for the economy and markets
- What’s behind the dollar’s slide?
- Bank of Canada will cut rates later this year
- OPEC trims its demand outlook on growth fears
- Mood improves but Brexit fears still evident
- What next for oil prices?
- Retail Sales (Mar.)
- What might Brexit mean for European property?
- Still some way off from sustainable aluminium price rally
- Glut of grains & soybeans heading into this year’s harvests
- Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
- Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown
- Brazil: notes from the ground
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1)
- Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1)
- Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.)
- A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports
- Chile postpones interest rate hikes on weak economy
- Has monetary policy lost its power?
- Trade (Mar.)
- Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
- Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great
- IMF still behind the curve
- EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF
- Will Brazil continue to outperform?
- Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.)
- Saudi economy feeling the strains of austerity
- Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away?
- Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis
- Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.)
- Is this a temporary setback for the dollar?
- Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Has Turkey regained competitiveness?
- The tin rally is all about supply
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.)
- QQE continues to face strong headwinds
- Recovery to weather referendum uncertainty well
- PMs lose momentum but technical outlook remains positive
- What’s behind the dollar’s slide?
- Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.)
- Qatar: rapid credit growth starting to ring alarm bells
- Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies
- Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal
- Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Mar.)
- Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Turkey Current Account (Feb.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)
- Machinery Orders (Feb.)
- Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting
- Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting
- Yen may still be under-valued, but it surely needs to be
- Where do the risks lie?
- Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound
- Potential growth still held back by productivity slump
- A simple economist’s view of the euro and the yen
- Temporary boost to demand shows signs of waning
- Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- How worrying are the falls in the activity surveys?
- US gasoline consumption to continue growing strongly
- ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears
- Gold’s rally far from over
- After the panic, what next for EMs?
- Prague high streets offer decent value despite historically low yields
- Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.)
- Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.)
- Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing
- Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.)
- Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
- Dollar crucial when domestic demand is slowing
- Current Account (Feb.)
- We need to talk about Q1 GDP growth
- Are EM equities just a play on oil?
- Signs of a growing inflation problem in Colombia
- Prospects for monetary policy still point to rebound in dollar
- Could prime shopping centre rents be a bright spot in retail?
- Strong US home building to underpin the price of lumber
- Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.)
- Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages
- South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now
- International Merchandise Trade (Feb.)
- Halifax House Prices (Mar.)
- Zinc demand looks promising
- Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet
- FX Reserves (Mar.)
- Inflation to ease again but RBI’s targets under threat
- Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired
- Is the grass greener in Tokyo?
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Renminbi still likely to weaken further against the US dollar
- Housing demand on the up
- Too soon to sound the all clear on the renminbi?
- Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold
- Mortgage Applications (Mar.)
- Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply
- Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy
- Consumer recovery set to fade
- What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance?
- World Gold Official Reserves (Feb.)
- Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook
- Inflation outlook appears benign
- Economy weathering Brexit uncertainty reasonably well
- Will commercial banks now pass on policy rate cuts?
- German Industrial Production (Feb.)
- Tigers in trouble, but better prospects elsewhere
- Will shopping vouchers boost consumption?
- What are the prospects for household spending?
- Growing imbalances cast cloud over recovery
- What’s behind the rebound in the yen?
- How much longer will yen strength weigh on the Nikkei?
- Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.)
- Peru’s election unlikely to mark shift in economic policy
- US silver imports and exports (Jan.)
- Metals price rally may prove unsustainable, for now
- CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)
- Can Italy’s recovery continue?
- Are yield falls about to go into reverse in Oslo offices?
- Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.)
- Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued
- Agriculturals benefit from a weak dollar, but will it last?
- PGMs outperform on improved China prospects
- Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.)
- Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Mar.)
- Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job
- Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.)
- RBI cuts repo rate but loosening cycle now at an end
- Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar
- South Africa: The Zuma saga is far from over
- Will the Philippines continue to grow strongly after Aquino?
- Australia International Trade (Feb.)
- Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.)
- Mexico: 2017 budget cuts to keep fiscal deficit in check
- Too soon to give up on a Doha deal to cap oil output
- Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4)
- Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout
- What are the chances of a deal in Doha to freeze oil output?
- Will high valuations snuff out the rally in EM equities?
- Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut
- CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.)
- Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.)
- Turkey CPI (Mar.)
- Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
- Australia Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.)
- Surge in US acreage doesn’t bode well for corn prices
- Rebound in business intentions unconvincing
- Singapore is not a global bellwether
- EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year
- Commodities hit by strong US data and Saudi comments
- Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
- Is the recovery getting back on track?
- Central European yield falls to outstrip other European sub-regions
- What is behind the slowdown in consumption growth?
- Markets start Q2 on a sour note
- Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change
- Our key calls for this year
- Russia GDP (Q4)
- Brazil Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
- China data finally starting to turn?
- Commodities spring into life
- Employment Report (Mar.)
- The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing
- What can LME stocks tell us about the aluminium market?
- Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.)
- South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
- Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
- Structural factors holding back wage growth
- Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
- PMIs (Mar.)
- Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner?
- Tankan (Q1)
- How much does the weather matter for energy commodities?
- How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation?
- New Argentine GDP data a step in the right direction
- The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro
- Brexit fears still weighing on sterling, despite recent gains
- Rhodium price to benefit from tighter fundamentals
- GDP by Industry (Jan.)
- Korean won leads the way
- Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Mar.)
- Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery?
- Romanian MPC hints at rate hikes, Czech MPC stays dovish
- South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.)
- How worrying is the record current account deficit?
- Cypriot success story comes with caveats
- Rand finally rebounds
- Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.)
- National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4)
- Mortgage Lending (Feb.)
- Lending to commercial property (Feb.)
- How will the reform of the EU sugar regime affect world prices?
- Will the participation rate continue to rebound?
- Copenhagen offices set for solid, but unspectacular, rental growth
- GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
- Turkey GDP (Q4)
- State elections take centre stage
- Is China attempting the impossible?
- Rebound in margin lending boosts equities
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts?
- EM growth dragged down by Brazil
- Yellen remarks underline the pivotal role of oil prices
- US Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Still struggling
- LNG prices to continue to struggle this year
- Commodities may be only lasting winners from Yellen’s dovishness
- Nigeria reverses course?
- Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Feb.)
- Is there still a “Brexit premium” on UK assets?
- No rebound yet
- EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.)
- Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Feb.)
- Where next for Myanmar?
- Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.)
- Money and credit aggregates still expanding steadily
- Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)