Global Economics

Tom Learmouth joined Capital Economics in May 2019. Tom works with Marcel Thieliant to cover the Japanese economy.

Prior to joining Capital Economics, Tom was a Japanese Government (MEXT) Research Student at the Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University. He also completed an internship at Bestinver Asset Management specialising in Japanese Equities. He holds an MSc in Economic History (Research) from the London School of Economics and a bachelors degree in History and Economics from the University of Manchester. Tom speaks and reads Japanese.

Articles published by Tom Learmouth

• Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up
• A reprieve for Yield Curve Control
• Japan External Trade (May 2022)
• BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields
• Weak wage growth to preclude tighter policy
• Rising prices won’t prevent solid rebound in Q2
• Labour Market, Industrial Prod. & Retail Sales (Apr. 22)
• Corporate tax shakeup, Shanghai parts shortages
• Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table
• Japan External Trade (Apr. 2022)
• Japan GDP (Q1 2022 Preliminary)
• Virus fears waning, Bank of Japan plans could change
• Large pot of pandemic savings to collect dust
• Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 22)
• 2.5% inflation, border to reopen to tourists in June
• BoJ may yet widen its tolerance band
• Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Mar. 2022)
• Japan Labour Market (Mar. 2022)
• Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2022)
• Policy settings under threat but BoJ won’t yield
• Japan External Trade (Mar. 2022)
• Reopening could be a damp squib
• Coal, cautious consumers, the BoJ starts to relax
• Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2022)
• Large current account surplus not a thing of the past
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Feb. 22)
• Investor rebellions getting harder for BoJ to put down
• Bank of Japan Tankan (Q1 2022)
• Japan Industrial Production (Feb 2022)
• Japan Retail Sales (Feb. 2022)
• Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2022)
• Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2%
• Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 2022)
• Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2%
• Supply chain disruption could take the gloss off Q2
• Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2022)
• Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2022)
• Japan External Trade (Feb. 2022)
• 2% inflation wouldn’t be enough for rate hike
• BoJ may get less dovish, GDP to fall in Q1
• Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2022)
• Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 2022)
• Fossil fuel reliance, Japanese banks in Russia
• 2% inflation if Russian energy flows disrupted
• Post-booster bounce in the spring
• Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2022)
• Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2022)
• Japan External Trade (Jan. 2022)
• Japan GDP (Q4 2021 Preliminary)
• BoJ sets its stall out, three more weeks of restrictions
• Prolonged border closure could lift labour costs
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Dec. 2021)
• Economy back in recovery mode next month
• Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec. 2021)
• Hit to output from staff absences could be hard
• Restrictions may not last long, key Shunto approaching
• Japan External Trade (Dec. 2021)
• Japan Machinery Orders (Nov. 2021)
• Strict isolation rules could cause severe shortages
• Shrinking balance sheet won’t lead to tighter policy
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Nov. 2021)
• Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2021)
• Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022
• Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast
• Japan External Trade (Nov. 2021)
• Wage-boosting tax breaks, Toyota setback
• BoJ to extend Covid aid, won’t lose control of yields
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Oct. 2021)
• Omicron restrictions wouldn’t jolt BoJ into action
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct. 2021)
• Government seeks to revive soggy chip industry
• Stimulus package large but smaller than reported
• Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2021)
• Automobile sector set for swift rebound
• Japan External Trade (Oct. 2021)
• Japan GDP (Q3 2021 Preliminary)
• PM Kishida’s plans to raise wages sound familiar
• Services recovering, industry still ailing
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep. 2021)
• Policy tightening still a distant prospect
• Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2021)
• Bank to look through weaker yen and supply shortages
• Japan External Trade (Sep. 2021)
• Domestic headwinds fading
• Kishida dissolves parliament, firms look to seniors
• Japan Machinery Orders (Aug. 2021)
• Southeast Asia shortages unlikely to derail recovery
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Aug. 2021)
• Japan Labour Market (Aug. 2021)
• Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 2021)
• What does Kishida’s victory mean for Japan?
• States of emergency may end before LDP election
• Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2021)
• Japan’s LNG shielded from Europe price spike for now
• Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster
• PM frontrunner Kono may favour sharper taper
• Japan Machinery Orders (Jul. 2021)
• Ishiba could clear path for Kono to become PM
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jul. 2021)
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jul. 2021)
• Delta may soon peak, Kishida seeks to replace Suga
• Consumer spending to fall across Q3
• Strong Q4 still on the cards
• Drag from emergency measures fading
• Japan Consumer Prices (Jul. 2021)
• Japan GDP (Q2 2021 Preliminary)
• Hospitals under pressure, PM Suga looking vulnerable
• Another disappointing quarter
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 21)
• Short-lived spike in underlying inflation on the cards
• A coronavirus wave for each Olympic ring
• Vaccines should limit Delta damage
• Japan External Trade (Jun. 2021)
• Delta variant taking hold in Tokyo before Olympics
• New climate change facility not a game changer
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (May 2021)
• Bank of Japan Tankan (Q2 2021)
• Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth
• Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (May 2021)
• Silver lining to still half-full fiscal war chest
• Four key takeaways from Suga’s first big-boned policy
• Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2021)
• Bank to broaden its gaze to encompass climate change
• State of emergency declarations to be lifted
• Japan Consumer Prices (May 2021)
• Japan Trade (May 2021) & Machinery Orders (Apr.)
• Vaccines for all by November, ¥1000 minimum wage
• Asset purchases to remain low but rates on hold
• Japan Wages (Apr.) & GDP (Revised Q1 2021)
• Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 2021)
• State of emergency extension, Olympic fifth wave?
• Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2021)
• Disappointing Q1, Moderna & AZ jabs approved
• Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2021)
• Japan Trade (Apr. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Mar.)
• Nationwide state of emergency touch and go
• Recovery delayed as vaccine rollout still too slow
• Resilient economic activity not necessarily good news
• Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2021)
• Chip shortages set to ease, vaccine passports
• Japan Retail Sales (Mar. 2021)
• Economy to stagnate in first half of the year
• Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2021)
• Osaka emergency to knock recovery back again
• Japan External Trade (Mar. 2021)
• Kansai emergency looming, jabs to pick up soon
• Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2021)
• UK variant taking hold in Osaka, July snap election?
• Economy to regain full health faster than most expect
• Fourth wave fears, pace of inoculations slow until May
• Bank of Japan Tankan (Q1 2021)
• Japan Industrial Production (Feb. 2021)
• Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (Feb. 2021)
• In with the TOPIX, car chipmaker fire, mobility surge
• Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 2021)
• BoJ rearranges furniture to prepare for prolonged hold
• Vaccine rollout kicking into gear, emergency over
• Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2021)
• Entering Q2 on a stronger footing
• Japan External Trade (Feb. 2021)
• Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2021)
• Legacy of Fukushima nuclear meltdown 10 years on
• Wages, HH Spending (Jan.) & GDP (Rev. Q4 2020)
• Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Feb. 2021)
• Risk averse Tokyo, mass vaccinations yet to begin
• Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2021) & Capex (Q4 2020)
• Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 2021)
• GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path
• Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2021)
• Jpn Trade (Jan. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2020)
• Sanguine January, TOPIX hits a 30-year high
• Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Dec. 2020)
• Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Jan. 2021)
• Emergency extension, more flexible JGB yield target
• The risks to our upbeat vaccine assumptions
• Skies brightening, AstraZeneca-JCR deal boost
• Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Dec. 2020)
• Japan Retail Sales (Dec. 2020)
• Voluntary measures may not bear enough fruit
• Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2020)
• Japan External Trade (Dec. 2020)
• Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter
• Suga banking on Pfizer vaccine ending harsh winter
• Japan Machinery Orders (Nov. 2020)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 2020)
• Japan Consumer Confidence (Dec.)
• PM Suga will struggle to keep up light-touch approach
• Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2020)
• Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption
• Japan External Trade (Nov. 2020)
• Bank of Japan Tankan (Q4 2020)
• Japan Machinery Orders (Oct. 2020)
• Third round of stimulus sets stage for strong rebound
• Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020)
• Business investment already turning a corner
• Infections rising again, “Go To” still alive and kicking
• Japan Labour Market (Oct.) & Capex (Q3 2020)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame
• Restaurant boost, third outbreak set to be worst yet
• Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2020)
• Japan External Trade (Oct. 2020)
• Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now
• Japan GDP (Q3 2020 Preliminary)
• Japan Machinery Orders (Sep.)
• Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.)
• Rebound continues, winter third wave?
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Sep.)
• Fiscal response looks more muscular with tax deferrals
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Strong consumption data, loan growth coming off boil
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Will equal pay for equal work raise labour costs?
• Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation
• Labour Market (Aug.)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.)
• Airports crowded again, firms awash with cash
• PM Suga, September recovery, inflation distortion
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Boost from fiscal support yet to be fully felt
• External Trade (Aug.)
• Unpacking Suganomics
• Machinery Orders (Jul.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised)
• What shape will economic policy take post-Abe?
• Labour Market (Jul.)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.)
• PM Abe stepping down, restrictions unwinding.
• Second wave impacts to differ in Korea and Japan
• Signs spread of virus slowing, opposition party merger
• Second wave not capsizing the economy
• Consumption to rebound despite states of emergency
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.)
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Economic activity holding up, 70% telework target
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Tokyo & Osaka diverge, business investment resilient?
• Chances of localised lockdowns rising
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Promotion of domestic travel could backfire
• Restrictions may return in Tokyo
• Machinery Orders (May)
• Labour Cash Earnings (May)
• End of Abenomics in name only when PM steps down
• Tankan (Q2)
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (May)
• April support still not fully spent as new dose readied
• Too much paperwork, fewest bankruptcies since 1964
• Consumer Prices (May)
• The long and winding road back to normality
• Reopening drive gathering pace, immigration failure
• Robust corporate balance sheets to support recovery
• Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.)
• GDP (Q1 Revised)
• Services spending slumps, spectre of new wave
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Large fiscal response should support recovery
• Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running
• Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• External Trade (Apr.)
• Machinery Orders (Mar.)
• GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• Green shoots after Golden Week holiday
• Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.)
• Lockdown set to loosen in some regions
• Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.)
• Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Wage subsidies to temper surge in unemployment
• Labour Market (Mar.)
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• External Trade (Mar.)
• Banking system should withstand corona shock
• Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.)
• Machinery Orders (Feb.)
• Feb resilience, second wave of containment measures
• Tankan (Q1)
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Corona complacency risks faster spread
• Counting the cost of Olympic postponement
• Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Coronavirus derailing the economy
• Machinery Orders (Jan.)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.)
• GDP (Q4 Revised)
• Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.)
• Coronavirus starting to take a toll
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• How worried should we be about regional banks?
• Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.)
• Manufacturing recovery hinges on external demand
• Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.)
• Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms
• Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.)
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Abe nominates reflationist, Japanification, coronavirus
• Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• External Trade (Dec.)
• Capacity shortages to ease, but not enough for rate cut
• FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment
• Squeeze on lending margins will fuel BoJ’s concerns
• Machinery Orders (Nov.)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.)
• BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• External Trade (Nov.)
• Machinery Orders (Oct.)
• Tax hike less damaging than previous ones
• Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.)
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Oct.)
• Capital Spending (Q3)
• Economy spluttering, Korea tensions thaw
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Abe makes history, supplementary budget, 50-yr JGBs?
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• External Trade (Oct.)
• Impact of tax hike on consumption set to remain small
• Labour market begins to loosen
• Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t
• Consumer spending will have plunged this month
• Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates?
• Supermarket sweep, cash’s reign under threat
• Are we any closer to a rate cut?
• Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal
• 10% sales tax, could BoJ change tiering system?
• BoJ more eager to ease, but won’t cut rates this year
• Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011
• Weak consumer confidence, BoJ pre-emptive easing?
• Regional banking shake-up gathering momentum
• Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost
• Recovery in output per worker has legs
• What drove strong consumer spending in Q2?
• Tax hike cushion, minimum wage, whitelist exclusion
• Dovish talk but the usual walk
• Koreans boycott Japan, constitutional reform in doubt
• Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy