Global Economics

Tom Learmouth joined Capital Economics in May 2019. Tom works with Marcel Thieliant to cover the Japanese economy.

Prior to joining Capital Economics, Tom was a Japanese Government (MEXT) Research Student at the Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University. He also completed an internship at Bestinver Asset Management specialising in Japanese Equities. He holds an MSc in Economic History (Research) from the London School of Economics and a bachelors degree in History and Economics from the University of Manchester. Tom speaks and reads Japanese.

Articles published by Tom Learmouth

• Restaurant boost, third outbreak set to be worst yet
• Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2020)
• Japan External Trade (Oct. 2020)
• Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now
• Japan GDP (Q3 2020 Preliminary)
• Japan Machinery Orders (Sep.)
• Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.)
• Rebound continues, winter third wave?
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Sep.)
• Fiscal response looks more muscular with tax deferrals
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Strong consumption data, loan growth coming off boil
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Will equal pay for equal work raise labour costs?
• Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation
• Labour Market (Aug.)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.)
• Airports crowded again, firms awash with cash
• PM Suga, September recovery, inflation distortion
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Boost from fiscal support yet to be fully felt
• External Trade (Aug.)
• Unpacking Suganomics
• Machinery Orders (Jul.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised)
• What shape will economic policy take post-Abe?
• Labour Market (Jul.)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.)
• PM Abe stepping down, restrictions unwinding.
• Second wave impacts to differ in Korea and Japan
• Signs spread of virus slowing, opposition party merger
• Second wave not capsizing the economy
• Consumption to rebound despite states of emergency
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.)
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Economic activity holding up, 70% telework target
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Tokyo & Osaka diverge, business investment resilient?
• Chances of localised lockdowns rising
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Promotion of domestic travel could backfire
• Restrictions may return in Tokyo
• Machinery Orders (May)
• Labour Cash Earnings (May)
• End of Abenomics in name only when PM steps down
• Tankan (Q2)
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (May)
• April support still not fully spent as new dose readied
• Too much paperwork, fewest bankruptcies since 1964
• Consumer Prices (May)
• The long and winding road back to normality
• Reopening drive gathering pace, immigration failure
• Robust corporate balance sheets to support recovery
• Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.)
• GDP (Q1 Revised)
• Services spending slumps, spectre of new wave
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Large fiscal response should support recovery
• Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running
• Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• External Trade (Apr.)
• Machinery Orders (Mar.)
• GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• Green shoots after Golden Week holiday
• Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.)
• Lockdown set to loosen in some regions
• Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.)
• Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Wage subsidies to temper surge in unemployment
• Labour Market (Mar.)
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• External Trade (Mar.)
• Banking system should withstand corona shock
• Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.)
• Machinery Orders (Feb.)
• Feb resilience, second wave of containment measures
• Tankan (Q1)
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Corona complacency risks faster spread
• Counting the cost of Olympic postponement
• Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Coronavirus derailing the economy
• Machinery Orders (Jan.)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.)
• GDP (Q4 Revised)
• Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.)
• Coronavirus starting to take a toll
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• How worried should we be about regional banks?
• Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.)
• Manufacturing recovery hinges on external demand
• Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.)
• Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms
• Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.)
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Abe nominates reflationist, Japanification, coronavirus
• Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• External Trade (Dec.)
• Capacity shortages to ease, but not enough for rate cut
• FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment
• Squeeze on lending margins will fuel BoJ’s concerns
• Machinery Orders (Nov.)
• Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.)
• Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.)
• BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• External Trade (Nov.)
• Machinery Orders (Oct.)
• Tax hike less damaging than previous ones
• Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.)
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Oct.)
• Capital Spending (Q3)
• Economy spluttering, Korea tensions thaw
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Abe makes history, supplementary budget, 50-yr JGBs?
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• External Trade (Oct.)
• Impact of tax hike on consumption set to remain small
• Labour market begins to loosen
• Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t
• Consumer spending will have plunged this month
• Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates?
• Supermarket sweep, cash’s reign under threat
• Are we any closer to a rate cut?
• Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal
• 10% sales tax, could BoJ change tiering system?
• BoJ more eager to ease, but won’t cut rates this year
• Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011
• Weak consumer confidence, BoJ pre-emptive easing?
• Regional banking shake-up gathering momentum
• Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost
• Recovery in output per worker has legs
• What drove strong consumer spending in Q2?
• Tax hike cushion, minimum wage, whitelist exclusion
• Dovish talk but the usual walk
• Koreans boycott Japan, constitutional reform in doubt
• Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy