Global Economics

Stephen Brown joined Capital Economics in 2014. After four years contributing to our European services, he now oversees our Canada Economics service. Stephen holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics.

Articles published by Stephen Brown

• Bank to turn forward guidance up to eleven
• GDP (Q4)
• Bank likely to talk rate expectations back down
• Markets jumping the gun on Bank of Canada rate hikes
• Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere
• Immigration target unlikely to be met this year
• Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Teranet House Prices (Jan.)
• Housing market to lose momentum as bond yields rise
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January
• Easing of restrictions to gradually lift employment
• Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction
• Labour Force Survey (Jan.) & International Trade (Dec.)
• Natural resources sector to offset weakness elsewhere
• Reliance on the kindness of strangers raises problems
• GDP by Industry (Nov.)
• Bank unlikely to pull forward rate hike plans
• Vaccinations lag the US
• Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges
• Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Bank hints at QE taper this year
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Nov.)
• Vaccine availability to remain limited in first quarter
• Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next
• Bank to remain on hold as it upgrades its forecasts
• Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q4)
• A slow start in the race to vaccinate
• Labour Force Survey (Dec.)
• International Trade (Nov.)
• House prices to rise further in 2021
• GDP by Industry (Oct.)
• Fresh lockdowns present new downside risks
• Ten potential surprises for Canada in 2021
• More COVID restrictions coming
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Inflation to be above 2% for most of 2021
• Teranet House Prices (Nov.)
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• What if households unleash their savings?
• Manufacturing Sales (Oct.)
• Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low
• Bank will probably stick to implicit yield curve control
• Canada stands out with new approach to fiscal policy
• Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.)
• Latest restrictions unlikely to prompt further loosening
• Economy to recover strongly after weak end to 2020
• GDP (Q3 & Sep.)
• Government plans investment of up to 4.3% of GDP
• Freeland to lay out investment plans
• Spending to underperform, but only in the near term
• Employment to decline in December
• Housing market shrugs off worsening outbreaks
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• “Circuit breaker” lockdowns the key risk to activity
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Sep.)
• Light at the end of a darkening tunnel
• Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support
• Ontario eases restrictions and provides more stimulus
• Labour Force Survey (Oct.)
• Easing of restrictions may not last
• International Trade (Sep.)
• Onus remains on fiscal policy
• GDP by Industry (Aug.)
• Bank alters QE and beefs up forward guidance
• US election effects to be outweighed by other factors
• Restrictions weighing on the recovery
• Focus turns to the Bank
• Renewed restrictions add to downside risks
• Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Bank’s balance sheet to expand again soon
• Teranet House Prices (Sep.)
• Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q3)
• Record low inventory to weigh on home sales
• Manufacturing Sales (Aug.)
• Employment outperformance set to end
• A house, a house, my condo for a house!
• Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• Recovery to benefit from ongoing fiscal support
• International Trade (Aug.)
• New restrictions to slow, but not derail, the recovery
• GDP by Industry (Jul.)
• Home prices to head higher despite areas of weakness
• Whatever it costs
• Throne speech latest step toward more activist policy
• Employment gains set to slow further
• All eyes on the throne speech
• Retail Sales (Jul.) & Teranet House Prices (Aug.)
• Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• Macklem hints at shift in focus toward inequality
• Bank sticks to its cautious message
• Bank to remain on pause
• Bank to adopt average inflation target in 2021
• GDP (Q2 & Jun.)
• ‘Freeconomics’ could see Canada outperform
• Upside risks growing for core inflation
• Government extends financial aid for households
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Immigration the key risk to construction
• Teranet House Prices (Jul.)
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Construction outpacing manufacturing
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Widening current account deficit not a big concern
• Employment recovery outpacing the US
• Labour Force Survey (Jul.)
• International Trade (Jun.)
• Recovery started strongly in May
• GDP by Industry (May)
• Bank of Canada too downbeat on growth and inflation
• Retail sales overstate recovery in consumption
• Virus case growth rising from low level
• Bank to reduce pace of asset purchases
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Retail Sales (May)
• Teranet House Prices (Jun.)
• Bank’s forward guidance to help support house prices
• House prices to be 8% higher by 2022
• Bank signals it will not raise rates until at least 2023
• Manufacturing Sales (May)
• Unemployment rate to drop back but remain elevated
• Higher fiscal spending good news for the Bank
• Labour Force Survey (Jun.)
• GDP to remain below pre-virus trend for years
• Huge deficit but more spending still to come
• Bank to stand pat as it presents new forecasts
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2)
• GDP began to rise again in May
• GDP by Industry (Apr.)
• Downgrade means little in practice
• A running start on the long road to recovery
• Continued income support to help spending recover
• Housing still the big unknown
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Consumer Prices (May)
• Huge CERB payouts point to stronger recovery
• Manufacturing Sales (Apr.)
• Further progress on re-opening
• House prices to prove less resilient than construction
• Employment gains to be far larger in June and July
• Rising employment a relief but risks remain
• Labour Force Survey (May)
• International Trade (Apr.)
• Bank scales back its liquidity operations
• Low consumer confidence points to slow recovery
• CMHC’s warnings will trouble the Bank
• GDP (Mar. & Q1)
• Bank likely to expand corporate bond purchases
• Hours worked plunge to 25-year low
• CMHC sounds the alarm
• Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Tumbling rents a big risk for house prices
• Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Financial System Review highlights policy impact
• Negative rates a possibility but not a priority
• Manufacturing Sales (Mar.)
• Overall policy response close in size to the US
• Labour market conditions even worse than they look
• Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
• Saving rate to remain elevated
• GDP to rise from May as provinces start re-opening
• International Trade (Mar.)
• Bank welcomes its newest asset
• Bank of Canada Governor Announcement
• Households suffering unprecedented loss of income
• House prices to remain below pre-virus level for years
• Home sales plummet
• Bank of Canada’s balance sheet to expand further
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Oil sector woes will hold back the recovery
• Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Teranet House Prices (Mar.)
• Policymakers provide further support
• Hit to GDP and employment worse than we thought
• Manufacturing Sales (Feb.)
• Bank starts corporate and provincial bond purchases
• Confidence slumps amid record job losses
• Labour Force Survey (Mar.)
• Next big announcement could be Poloz’s successor
• Virus disruption will cause some long-lasting damage
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1)
• Fiscal support already too late for many
• International Merchandise Trade (Feb.)
• Many firms will struggle even with interest-free loans
• GDP by Industry (Jan.)
• Bank hints at funding for lending & yield-curve control
• Monetary and fiscal policymakers still have work to do
• GDP to plunge as unemployment soars
• Ultra-low oil prices will have long-lasting effects
• Further fiscal support needed
• Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Further fiscal stimulus will be needed
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Likely slump in GDP to prompt bigger policy response
• Manufacturing Sales (Jan.)
• Recession now most likely outcome
• Indicators to watch for COVID-19 impact
• Bank to slash rates to near-zero
• Rise in COVID-19 cases point to at least one more cut
• Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & International Trade (Jan.)
• Bank to cut interest rates again in April
• Bank to wait and see amid virus fears
• GDP (Dec. & Q4)
• Dovish policy statement coming
• Virus fears pull down interest rate expectations
• First-quarter rebound to disappoint
• Teranet House Prices (Jan.)
• Rail blockades to weigh on first-quarter growth
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Reduced stress tests another reason for Bank to hold
• Manufacturing Sales (Dec.)
• Construction prospects bright
• Wage growth to slow following January’s spike
• Volatile times for exporters
• Labour Force Survey (Jan.)
• International Merchandise Trade (Dec.)
• Bank willing to accept below-target inflation
• Further signs Bank unlikely to cut
• GDP by Industry (Nov.)
• Monetary policy is losing its power over households
• Coronavirus unlikely to tip the scales for a rate cut
• Market back to pricing in rate cuts
• Mixed messages from Poloz
• Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Bank of Canada unlikely to cut interest rates
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Nov.)
• Teranet House Prices (Dec.)
• The Candyman cometh
• Temporary nature of slowdown to keep Bank on hold
• Business Outlook Survey (Q4)
• Poloz cautiously upbeat amid mixed data
• Labour Force Survey (Dec.)
• GDP growth to rebound in the first quarter
• International Merchandise Trade (Nov.)
• New year, new loonie
• Unemployment rate to tick up in 2020
• Growth to rebound in the first quarter
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Strong 2021 to put rate hikes back on the table
• Poloz welcomes reduced uncertainty
• Third-quarter investment surge unlikely to be repeated
• Core inflation probably peaked in November
• Banking on fiscal policy
• Labour Force Survey (Nov.)
• International Merchandise Trade (Oct.)
• Bank to keep policy unchanged in 2020
• GDP (Sep. & Q3)
• Housing revival likely to keep Bank on side-lines
• Prospects for consumer spending slowly improving
• Temporary factors add to uncertainty
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• House price inflation set to surge
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Sep.)
• Signing of CUSMA will do little for growth
• Cracks beginning to appear in the labour market
• Keystone rupture may weigh heavily on GDP
• Labour Force Survey (Oct.)
• What would make or break a December rate cut?
• International Merchandise Trade (Sep.)
• Heading for a December rate cut
• GDP by Industry (Aug.)
• Bank becoming more dovish
• Surveys point to weak growth
• Election won’t sway Bank’s decision
• Bank on hold, for now
• Minority government looking likely
• Public finances in better shape than in most countries
• Manufacturing Sales (Aug.)
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Poloz’s favourite indicator weakens further
• Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• What does the election mean for the housing market?
• Bank of Canada to wait a little longer to cut rates
• International Merchandise Trade (Aug.)
• Policy stimulus to limit economic slowdown
• Liberals and Tories eye wider budget deficits
• GDP by Industry (Jul.)
• Wholesalers save July
• Wealth effects more important than HELOCs alone
• Consumption growth will lag income gains
• GDP probably fell in July
• Teranet House Prices (Aug.)
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• It’s not the economy, stupid
• Stronger housing starts won’t prevent slowdown
• Bank ignores rate cut speculation
• Labour Force Survey (Aug.)
• Bank leaves its options open
• International Merchandise Trade (Jul.)
• Spotlight turns to the Bank
• GDP (June & Q2 2019)
• Bank to set the stage for October rate cut
• October rate cut looking more likely
• Mixed signals for the Bank
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Elevated inventories a key risk to the outlook
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Stronger sales point to renewed house price gains
• Core inflation more likely to decline than rise
• Markets see greater chance of interest rate cuts
• Labour Force Survey (Jul.)
• Bank of Canada faces mounting downside risks
• Brighter past, gloomier future
• International Merchandise Trade (Jun.)
• Strength of manufacturing won’t be sustained
• GDP by Industry (May)
• Bank’s housing forecasts built on wrong foundations
• Last manufacturer standing
• Oil sector to drag down third-quarter GDP
• Business Outlook Survey bucks weak trends elsewhere
• Higher non-bank lending highlights financial risks
• Retail Sales (May)
• Bank’s own forecasts point to looser policy
• Teranet House Prices (Jun.)
• Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Manufacturing Sales (May)
• Bank of Canada at a crossroads
• Housing starts to drop
• Bank’s forecasts show it is becoming more dovish
• Growth to drop to just 1% in 2020
• Import data point to weaker domestic demand growth
• Mixed signals to keep Bank on hold
• International Merchandise Trade (May)