Global Economics

Stephen Brown joined Capital Economics in 2014. After four years contributing to our European services, he now oversees our Canada Economics service. In 2021, Stephen was named the most accurate forecaster of the Canadian economy by Refinitiv, FocusEconomics and Consensus Economics.

Stephen holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics.

Articles published by Stephen Brown

• Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy
• Inflation to remain near 4% for next six months
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• Policymakers in focus
• Labour Force Survey (Aug.)
• Conservative victory won’t be a game-changer
• Bank on hold ahead of likely October taper
• GDP shrinks, opinion polls shift
• International Trade (Jul.)
• Bank to keep policy unchanged as recovery stalls
• GDP (Q2)
• Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much
• Is the Bank right to dismiss CPI-trim and CPI-median?
• Fourth wave could delay recovery
• Trudeau risks a fourth-wave election
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Teranet House Prices (Jul.)
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework
• What’s going on with wages?
• How do our key calls compare with the consensus?
• Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data
• GDP by Industry (May)
• Re-opening should more than offset wildfire disruption
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing
• Retail Sales (May)
• New CPI weights will keep a lid on inflation
• Teranet House Prices (Jun.)
• Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic
• Consumption to drive recovery
• Bank tapers its asset purchases again
• Manufacturing Sales (May)
• Home sales fall further in June
• Labour Force Survey (Jun.)
• Bank to taper asset purchases
• Residential investment now the key downside risk
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2)
• GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July
• International Trade (May)
• Labour shortages set to intensify
• GDP by Industry (Apr.)
• Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber
• Price and wage expectations continue to rise
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation
• Consumer Prices (May)
• Manufacturing Sales (Apr.)
• Bank unconcerned about inflation outlook
• Bank likely to taper purchases again in July
• International Trade (Apr.)
• Elevated residential investment may concern the Bank
• Labour Force Survey (May)
• Bank to wait until July before tapering again
• GDP (Q1)
• Hot economy summer
• Upside risks to inflation as the economy re-opens
• Tackling climate change will be costlier than elsewhere
• Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance”
• Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Bank may welcome strong loonie after inflation spike
• Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Vaccinations now outpacing most countries
• Manufacturing Sales (Mar.)
• Inflation to be above 3% for most of the year
• Home sales decline for first time this year
• Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
• Higher commodities prices another tailwind to growth
• International Trade (Mar.)
• Macklem unfazed by upside risks to inflation
• GDP by Industry (Feb.)
• Construction boom raises questions about supply
• Childcare plan could raise potential GDP growth
• Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Bank raises forecasts as government boosts support
• Bank trims asset purchases, may hike in late 2022
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Teranet House Prices (Mar.)
• Government sets out stimulus worth 4.4% of GDP
• All eyes on Budget 2021 and the Bank of Canada
• Manufacturing Sales (Feb.)
• Bank to trim asset purchases despite third wave
• House prices vulnerable to higher interest rates
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1)
• OSFI waters down the punch
• Labour Force Survey (Mar.)
• Vaccinations and policy stimulus to drive recovery
• International Trade (Feb.)
• Third wave prompts new restrictions
• GDP by Industry (Jan.)
• Bond yields to rise as Bank cuts purchases
• Booming housing market a challenge for the Bank
• Bank to cut the pace of its asset purchases next month
• Vaccinations set to ramp up
• Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Bank unlikely to flinch as inflation moves above target
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jan.)
• Bank to upgrade forecasts in April
• Labour Force Survey (Feb.)
• Bank remains committed to keeping yields low
• Broader labour market indicators still weak
• Economy more reliant than ever on housing
• International Trade (Jan.)
• Bank to turn forward guidance up to eleven
• GDP (Q4)
• Bank likely to talk rate expectations back down
• Markets jumping the gun on Bank of Canada rate hikes
• Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere
• Immigration target unlikely to be met this year
• Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Teranet House Prices (Jan.)
• Housing market to lose momentum as bond yields rise
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January
• Easing of restrictions to gradually lift employment
• Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction
• Labour Force Survey (Jan.) & International Trade (Dec.)
• Natural resources sector to offset weakness elsewhere
• Reliance on the kindness of strangers raises problems
• GDP by Industry (Nov.)
• Bank unlikely to pull forward rate hike plans
• Vaccinations lag the US
• Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges
• Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Bank hints at QE taper this year
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Nov.)
• Vaccine availability to remain limited in first quarter
• Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next
• Bank to remain on hold as it upgrades its forecasts
• Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q4)
• A slow start in the race to vaccinate
• Labour Force Survey (Dec.)
• International Trade (Nov.)
• House prices to rise further in 2021
• GDP by Industry (Oct.)
• Fresh lockdowns present new downside risks
• Ten potential surprises for Canada in 2021
• More COVID restrictions coming
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Inflation to be above 2% for most of 2021
• Teranet House Prices (Nov.)
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• What if households unleash their savings?
• Manufacturing Sales (Oct.)
• Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low
• Bank will probably stick to implicit yield curve control
• Canada stands out with new approach to fiscal policy
• Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.)
• Latest restrictions unlikely to prompt further loosening
• Economy to recover strongly after weak end to 2020
• GDP (Q3 & Sep.)
• Government plans investment of up to 4.3% of GDP
• Freeland to lay out investment plans
• Spending to underperform, but only in the near term
• Employment to decline in December
• Housing market shrugs off worsening outbreaks
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• “Circuit breaker” lockdowns the key risk to activity
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Sep.)
• Light at the end of a darkening tunnel
• Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support
• Ontario eases restrictions and provides more stimulus
• Labour Force Survey (Oct.)
• Easing of restrictions may not last
• International Trade (Sep.)
• Onus remains on fiscal policy
• GDP by Industry (Aug.)
• Bank alters QE and beefs up forward guidance
• US election effects to be outweighed by other factors
• Restrictions weighing on the recovery
• Focus turns to the Bank
• Renewed restrictions add to downside risks
• Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Bank’s balance sheet to expand again soon
• Teranet House Prices (Sep.)
• Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q3)
• Record low inventory to weigh on home sales
• Manufacturing Sales (Aug.)
• Employment outperformance set to end
• A house, a house, my condo for a house!
• Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• Recovery to benefit from ongoing fiscal support
• International Trade (Aug.)
• New restrictions to slow, but not derail, the recovery
• GDP by Industry (Jul.)
• Home prices to head higher despite areas of weakness
• Whatever it costs
• Throne speech latest step toward more activist policy
• Employment gains set to slow further
• All eyes on the throne speech
• Retail Sales (Jul.) & Teranet House Prices (Aug.)
• Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• Macklem hints at shift in focus toward inequality
• Bank sticks to its cautious message
• Bank to remain on pause
• Bank to adopt average inflation target in 2021
• GDP (Q2 & Jun.)
• ‘Freeconomics’ could see Canada outperform
• Upside risks growing for core inflation
• Government extends financial aid for households
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Immigration the key risk to construction
• Teranet House Prices (Jul.)
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Construction outpacing manufacturing
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Widening current account deficit not a big concern
• Employment recovery outpacing the US
• Labour Force Survey (Jul.)
• International Trade (Jun.)
• Recovery started strongly in May
• GDP by Industry (May)
• Bank of Canada too downbeat on growth and inflation
• Retail sales overstate recovery in consumption
• Virus case growth rising from low level
• Bank to reduce pace of asset purchases
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Retail Sales (May)
• Teranet House Prices (Jun.)
• Bank’s forward guidance to help support house prices
• House prices to be 8% higher by 2022
• Bank signals it will not raise rates until at least 2023
• Manufacturing Sales (May)
• Unemployment rate to drop back but remain elevated
• Higher fiscal spending good news for the Bank
• Labour Force Survey (Jun.)
• GDP to remain below pre-virus trend for years
• Huge deficit but more spending still to come
• Bank to stand pat as it presents new forecasts
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2)
• GDP began to rise again in May
• GDP by Industry (Apr.)
• Downgrade means little in practice
• A running start on the long road to recovery
• Continued income support to help spending recover
• Housing still the big unknown
• Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Consumer Prices (May)
• Huge CERB payouts point to stronger recovery
• Manufacturing Sales (Apr.)
• Further progress on re-opening
• House prices to prove less resilient than construction
• Employment gains to be far larger in June and July
• Rising employment a relief but risks remain
• Labour Force Survey (May)
• International Trade (Apr.)
• Bank scales back its liquidity operations
• Low consumer confidence points to slow recovery
• CMHC’s warnings will trouble the Bank
• GDP (Mar. & Q1)
• Bank likely to expand corporate bond purchases
• Hours worked plunge to 25-year low
• CMHC sounds the alarm
• Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Tumbling rents a big risk for house prices
• Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Financial System Review highlights policy impact
• Negative rates a possibility but not a priority
• Manufacturing Sales (Mar.)
• Overall policy response close in size to the US
• Labour market conditions even worse than they look
• Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
• Saving rate to remain elevated
• GDP to rise from May as provinces start re-opening
• International Trade (Mar.)
• Bank welcomes its newest asset
• Bank of Canada Governor Announcement
• Households suffering unprecedented loss of income
• House prices to remain below pre-virus level for years
• Home sales plummet
• Bank of Canada’s balance sheet to expand further
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Oil sector woes will hold back the recovery
• Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Teranet House Prices (Mar.)
• Policymakers provide further support
• Hit to GDP and employment worse than we thought
• Manufacturing Sales (Feb.)
• Bank starts corporate and provincial bond purchases
• Confidence slumps amid record job losses
• Labour Force Survey (Mar.)
• Next big announcement could be Poloz’s successor
• Virus disruption will cause some long-lasting damage
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1)
• Fiscal support already too late for many
• International Merchandise Trade (Feb.)
• Many firms will struggle even with interest-free loans
• GDP by Industry (Jan.)
• Bank hints at funding for lending & yield-curve control
• Monetary and fiscal policymakers still have work to do
• GDP to plunge as unemployment soars
• Ultra-low oil prices will have long-lasting effects
• Further fiscal support needed
• Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Further fiscal stimulus will be needed
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Likely slump in GDP to prompt bigger policy response
• Manufacturing Sales (Jan.)
• Recession now most likely outcome
• Indicators to watch for COVID-19 impact
• Bank to slash rates to near-zero
• Rise in COVID-19 cases point to at least one more cut
• Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & International Trade (Jan.)
• Bank to cut interest rates again in April
• Bank to wait and see amid virus fears
• GDP (Dec. & Q4)
• Dovish policy statement coming
• Virus fears pull down interest rate expectations
• First-quarter rebound to disappoint
• Teranet House Prices (Jan.)
• Rail blockades to weigh on first-quarter growth
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Reduced stress tests another reason for Bank to hold
• Manufacturing Sales (Dec.)
• Construction prospects bright
• Wage growth to slow following January’s spike
• Volatile times for exporters
• Labour Force Survey (Jan.)
• International Merchandise Trade (Dec.)
• Bank willing to accept below-target inflation
• Further signs Bank unlikely to cut
• GDP by Industry (Nov.)
• Monetary policy is losing its power over households
• Coronavirus unlikely to tip the scales for a rate cut
• Market back to pricing in rate cuts
• Mixed messages from Poloz
• Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Bank of Canada unlikely to cut interest rates
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Nov.)
• Teranet House Prices (Dec.)
• The Candyman cometh
• Temporary nature of slowdown to keep Bank on hold
• Business Outlook Survey (Q4)
• Poloz cautiously upbeat amid mixed data
• Labour Force Survey (Dec.)
• GDP growth to rebound in the first quarter
• International Merchandise Trade (Nov.)
• New year, new loonie
• Unemployment rate to tick up in 2020
• Growth to rebound in the first quarter
• Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Strong 2021 to put rate hikes back on the table
• Poloz welcomes reduced uncertainty
• Third-quarter investment surge unlikely to be repeated
• Core inflation probably peaked in November
• Banking on fiscal policy
• Labour Force Survey (Nov.)
• International Merchandise Trade (Oct.)
• Bank to keep policy unchanged in 2020
• GDP (Sep. & Q3)
• Housing revival likely to keep Bank on side-lines
• Prospects for consumer spending slowly improving
• Temporary factors add to uncertainty
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• House price inflation set to surge
• Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Sep.)
• Signing of CUSMA will do little for growth
• Cracks beginning to appear in the labour market
• Keystone rupture may weigh heavily on GDP
• Labour Force Survey (Oct.)
• What would make or break a December rate cut?
• International Merchandise Trade (Sep.)
• Heading for a December rate cut
• GDP by Industry (Aug.)
• Bank becoming more dovish
• Surveys point to weak growth
• Election won’t sway Bank’s decision
• Bank on hold, for now
• Minority government looking likely
• Public finances in better shape than in most countries
• Manufacturing Sales (Aug.)
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Poloz’s favourite indicator weakens further
• Labour Force Survey (Sep.)
• What does the election mean for the housing market?
• Bank of Canada to wait a little longer to cut rates
• International Merchandise Trade (Aug.)
• Policy stimulus to limit economic slowdown
• Liberals and Tories eye wider budget deficits
• GDP by Industry (Jul.)
• Wholesalers save July
• Wealth effects more important than HELOCs alone
• Consumption growth will lag income gains
• GDP probably fell in July
• Teranet House Prices (Aug.)
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)
• It’s not the economy, stupid
• Stronger housing starts won’t prevent slowdown
• Bank ignores rate cut speculation
• Labour Force Survey (Aug.)
• Bank leaves its options open
• International Merchandise Trade (Jul.)
• Spotlight turns to the Bank
• GDP (June & Q2 2019)
• Bank to set the stage for October rate cut
• October rate cut looking more likely
• Mixed signals for the Bank
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Elevated inventories a key risk to the outlook
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jun.)
• Stronger sales point to renewed house price gains
• Core inflation more likely to decline than rise
• Markets see greater chance of interest rate cuts
• Labour Force Survey (Jul.)
• Bank of Canada faces mounting downside risks
• Brighter past, gloomier future
• International Merchandise Trade (Jun.)
• Strength of manufacturing won’t be sustained
• GDP by Industry (May)
• Bank’s housing forecasts built on wrong foundations
• Last manufacturer standing
• Oil sector to drag down third-quarter GDP
• Business Outlook Survey bucks weak trends elsewhere
• Higher non-bank lending highlights financial risks
• Retail Sales (May)
• Bank’s own forecasts point to looser policy
• Teranet House Prices (Jun.)
• Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Manufacturing Sales (May)
• Bank of Canada at a crossroads
• Housing starts to drop
• Bank’s forecasts show it is becoming more dovish
• Growth to drop to just 1% in 2020
• Import data point to weaker domestic demand growth
• Mixed signals to keep Bank on hold
• International Merchandise Trade (May)