Global Economics

Stephen Brown joined Capital Economics in 2014. After four years contributing to our European services, he now oversees our Canada Economics service. In 2021, Stephen was named the most accurate forecaster of the Canadian economy by Refinitiv, FocusEconomics and Consensus Economics.

Stephen holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics.

Articles published by Stephen Brown

• Fall in house prices to contribute to lower CPI inflation
• Manufacturing Sales (Mar.)
• Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7%
• Will a housing downturn crash the economy?
• Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms
• Labour Force Survey (Apr.)
• Spring market brings deep freeze for home sales
• International Trade (Mar.)
• Business surveys strong, but clouds gather for housing
• GDP by Industry (Feb.)
• Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth
• Inflation surge to prompt more rapid tightening
• Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential
• Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Following 2022 budget, attention turns to the Bank
• Labour Force Survey (Mar.)
• Budget 2022 unlikely to move the needle for the Bank
• A “forceful” 50 bp hike and the start of QT
• International Trade (Feb)
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1)
• Budget 2022 could make Bank even more “forceful”
• GDP by Industry (Jan.)
• Budget 2022 could exacerbate inflationary pressures
• Higher forecasts for bond yields and the loonie
• Market-implied policy tightening could topple housing
• Another record rise in house prices
• Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Can the housing market handle higher interest rates?
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Manufacturing Sales (Jan.)
• Bank to be more aggressive amid booming jobs market
• Labour Force Survey (Feb.)
• Current account set for largest surplus since 2006
• Higher forecasts for GDP, inflation and interest rates
• International Trade (Jan.)
• Following first rate hike, QT will be “next step”
• Assessing the impact of the war in Ukraine for Canada
• Bank hikes by 25bp but holds off from QT
• GDP (Q4)
• Terms of trade most favourable on record
• Bank of Canada to hike rates and start QT
• Inflationary pressures broadening
• Bank to begin quantitative tightening in March
• Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Weak investment highlights long-run challenges
• Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Macklem betting on productivity rebound
• What if oil prices remain higher than we expect?
• International Trade (Dec)
• Omicron disruption already in the rear-view mirror
• Labour Force Survey (Jan.)
• Bank of Canada could sell assets sooner than most
• GDP by Industry (Nov.)
• Bank signals eagerness to begin QT
• Bank stands pat but rate hike coming in March
• Wage growth could prompt faster policy tightening
• Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable
• Will they, won’t they?
• Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Bank of Canada to tee up March hike
• Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4)
• Manufacturing Sales (Nov.)
• Ivey PMI suggests widespread Omicron disruption
• Will the Bank of Canada hike this month?
• Omicron a new type of challenge for labour market
• Labour Force Survey (Dec.)
• Five key calls and five unknowns for Canada in 2022