Global Economics

Simon MacAdam is the Senior Global Economist at Capital Economics. He joined the company in 2015 as part of the graduate scheme and has worked across the company covering the UK, commodity markets and global financial markets, before joining the Global Economics team in early 2017. He holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Articles published by Simon MacAdam

• Inflation fears to keep central banks in tightening mode
• COVID Recovery Monitor
• Mfg. PMIs show signs of improvement pre-Omicron
• Underlying inflation to linger even as headline rates fall
• Shortages to maintain upward pressure on inflation
• COVID Recovery Monitor
• Renewed restrictions: inflationary or disinflationary?
• Global exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis
• Latest inflation data less worrying for the ECB than the Fed
• PMIs: Still no sign of supply problems letting up
• Do inflation expectations matter?
• PMIs: Services left to do the heavy lifting
• PMIs: More signs of supply crimping industrial recovery
• More signs that the trade recovery has reached its limits
• Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande
• What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world
• What has driven periods of higher inflation in the past?
• Sky-high shipping costs pose upside risk to inflation
• Plateau in world trade and supply bottlenecks to persist
• Will rents push up consumer price inflation?
• How best to gauge underlying pay pressure
• Global PMIs flattening off at high levels
• World trade recovery levelling off
• Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs
• Recovery in world trade continues, for now
• Reflationary recovery races on
• How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’?
• G7 tax deal encouraging sign for cooperation among DMs
• How far will rising commodity prices boost inflation?
• Great Inflation 2.0? Lessons from the 1970s
• A closer look at ‘excess’ household savings
• Little sign of disruption from Suez blockage
• Virus & vaccine setbacks push back timing of recovery
• Can we trust the business surveys?
• The global implications of more US fiscal stimulus
• Corporate savings pose another upside risk
• Vaccines won’t prevent a weak start to the year
• The challenges facing rollouts of coronavirus vaccines
• The challenges facing rollouts of coronavirus vaccines
• The global state of play
• Central banks to look through higher inflation
• DM banks able to withstand higher defaults next year
• World trade over 90% of way back to pre-virus level
• The global implications of the US election result
• Manufacturing PMIs holding up well ahead of lockdowns
• Indian banks: the world’s weakest link
• New phase of the pandemic to hit Europe hardest
• The private sector costs of COVID-19
• The private sector costs of COVID-19
• Trackers suggest the global recovery is stumbling
• Three points and ten charts on the virus
• DM recovery will probably slow from here
• Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on
• Does GDP usually revert to trend after downturns?
• Trackers: Recovery stalls in US hotspots; Latam lags
• Flash PMIs add to upside risks to our Q2 forecasts
• Daily Covid Recovery Trackers
• Past the worst, but recovery to be uneven
• Interpreting business surveys in a crisis
• Taking stock of central bank lending facilities
• House prices to fall, but not crash
• It’s probably a lot worse than the PMIs suggest
• Five key points on global financial stability
• Modelling the COVID-19 shock
• Services sector to bear the brunt of global recession
• Services get pummelled in March; worse is to come
• Financial conditions now as tight as during the GFC
• World economy heading for recession
• Could the coronavirus trigger a business debt crisis?
• Tightening of DM financial conditions limited… so far
• COVID-19 impact on DMs limited so far
• Where are the markets wrong on policy rates in DMs?
• Coronavirus to delay the global recovery
• Coronavirus to end 43-quarter global growth streak
• The supply-chain disruption from the coronavirus
• More signs of stabilisation, albeit prior to virus effects
• Another look at the coronavirus
• PMIs add to signs that DMs are passing the trough
• Little festive cheer for global industry
• Inflation to change little in 2020, even as oil prices rise
• Signs of global stability mask pockets of weakness
• CLOs are a small but growing risk to financial stability
• The data aren’t getting any worse at the global level
• At least the PMIs aren’t getting any worse
• Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown?
• Global industry not out of the woods yet
• Will the manufacturing malaise spread to services?
• Yield curve inversions are blind in one eye
• The trade war is only likely to intensify from here
• Signals from timely indicators not as bad as they seem