Global Economics

Liam Peach is an Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economics, specialising in Emerging Europe. He joined the company in 2017 and has previously covered the UK economy, commodity markets and global financial markets. Prior to this, he worked as an economist at the Office for National Statistics. Liam holds a BSc in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from City, University of London.

Articles published by Liam Peach

• CEE inflation broadening out
• Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks
• Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon
• CBR lowers interest rates back to pre-war levels
• Russia Consumer Prices (May)
• Russia Activity Data (Apr.)
• Oil embargo, PLN/HUF divergence, inventory boost
• Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default
• War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2022)
• Israel GDP (Q1 2022)
• Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse
• CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet
• Is the ruble now too strong? EU oil embargo gets close
• Poland well prepared for life without Russian gas
• Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows
• CBR slashes rates and shifts its focus
• Russia Activity Data (Mar.)
• Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom
• Poland Activity Data (Mar.)
• New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion
• Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs
• Israel: interest rate lift-off with a 25bp hike
• Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Early evidence of a hard hit to Russia’s economy
• NBP steps up its fight against inflation
• Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory
• Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
• Hungary’s election: what’s at stake?
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.)
• Russia/Ukraine spillovers to hit CEE economies hard
• Russian markets re-open, gas payments & refugees
• MNB firmly in inflation-fighting mode
• Contagion risks to CEE banks likely to be limited
• Poland Activity Data (Feb.)
• Russian banks: immediate crisis averted, but risks loom
• Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE
• Energy embargo to deepen Russia’s contraction
• Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• A deep dive into Russian corporate debt risks
• NBP steps up tightening as inflation risks heighten
• Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil
• Russia macro update: sharp contraction incoming
• How vulnerable are Russia’s FX reserves to sanctions?
• Russia’s banks on the brink
• Reflecting on the week that war began
• Bank of Israel hints at lift-off in April
• Poland Activity Data (Jan.)
• Russia GDP (2021)
• Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s blockbuster GDP, EU funds
• A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities
• Israel GDP (Q4 2021)
• Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget
• Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges
• Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• NBP maintains steady tightening as inflation risks build
• CNB signals that tightening cycle is almost done
• Poland GDP (2021)
• Four points on Russia’s market sell-off
• Poland Activity Data (Dec.)
• Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge
• Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022
• Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip
• CEE: wage-price spiral a growing risk in 2022
• NBP tightening continues as inflation hits fresh high
• CBR accelerates tightening amid surging inflation
• Hawkish MNB signals that tightening has further to go
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat
• NBP slows tightening, but steps up hawkish rhetoric
• Omicron & tightening cycles, Turkey into the unknown
• More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye
• Russia Activity Data (Oct.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength
• Poland Activity Data (Oct.)
• BoI offers no new guidance, 2022 rate hike still in play
• Turmoil in Turkey, MNB delivers, COVID divergence
• Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops”
• Russia GDP (Q3 2021)
• MNB drops a bombshell as it pledges faster tightening
• Israel GDP (Q3 2021)
• Israel Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10
• Poland GDP (Q3 2021)
• Fiscal policy in Israel set to lose its punch
• Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation
• Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu
• CNB slams its foot on the brakes with monster rate hike
• NBP takes its head out of the sand with large rate hike
• Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
• Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy
• Assessing the winners and losers from high energy prices
• Surging virus cases and the re-imposition of lockdowns
• CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again
• CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut
• Poland Activity Data (Sep.)
• Israel Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation
• Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes
• BoI ends asset purchases, rate hike now likely in 2022
• Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• NBP catches everyone off guard with a surprise hike
• What to expect from the next Czech government
• NBR hikes interest rates, further tightening to follow
• Russia Activity Data (Aug.)
• Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall
• Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
• Hawkish CNB accelerates its tightening cycle
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)
• Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount
• Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus
• Israel Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation
• CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end
• Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• CEE: income growth to drive the consumer recovery
• Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel
• Russia Activity Data (Jul.)
• Manufacturing PMIs (August)
• Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs
• MNB hints at slower tightening, tapering takes stage
• BoI maintains its dovish tone as outlook dims
• Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure
• Poland Activity Data (Jul.)
• Booster jabs accelerate as virus cases surge in Israel
• Israel GDP (Q2 2021)
• Russia GDP (Q2 2021)
• Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again
• Poland GDP (Q2 2021)
• Russia’s lending boom: time to ring the alarm bells?
• Czech GDP (Q2 2021)
• Russia Activity Data (Jun.)
• MNB steps up front-loaded tightening cycle
• CBR hikes rates sharply, but cycle nearing an end
• Israel and the Delta variant: what we know so far
• Poland Activity Data (Jun.)
• Russia: surging inflation to prompt more rate hikes
• Israel Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• BoI withdraws support, but no sign of tightening
• Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains
• Russia: a strong recovery in Q2, but risks ahead
• CNB starts lift-off, aggressive tightening cycle in store
• Hungary: a short, sharp tightening cycle takes hold
• Poland Activity Data (May)
• Moscow’s virus surge, MNB and CNB ready for lift-off
• Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel
• Israel Consumer Prices (May)
• Russia: consumer spending recovery has further to run
• Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies
• Russia: further rate hikes to tame inflation pressures
• Russia Consumer Prices (May)
• Russia Activity Data (Apr.)
• CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open
• Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue
• Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (May)
• Poland Activity Data (Apr.)
• Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance
• Israel and the risks to our macro forecasts
• Israel GDP (Q1 2021)
• Russia GDP (Q1 2021)
• Assessing the macro implications of the “Polish Deal”
• Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Poland’s recovery plan, hawkish central banks in CEE
• Israel’s recovery showing early signs of labour shortages
• Putin’s fiscal gift, lira fall, Polish inflation, Israel launch
• CBR signals further tightening to tackle inflation
• Israel’s vaccine success to drive strong recovery
• Poland Activity Data (Mar.)
• Russia Activity Data (Mar.)
• US-Russia escalation as sanctions target sovereign debt
• Russia: looser fiscal policy in store, but no splurge
• Conflict in the Donbass, Turkey’s FX reserve problem
• Russia GDP (Q4 2020)
• Rare zloty weakness, Erdogan’s extended purge
• Israel’s re-opening: the impact so far
• CEE’s delayed recovery, cautious CNB, Turkey turmoil
• Direction shifting towards tightening in Hungary
• Russia Activity Data (Feb.)
• Russia sanctions, vaccine worries, NBR turns hawkish
• CBR: a hike and clear signal for aggressive tightening
• Poland Activity Data (Feb.)
• Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore
• Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• CBRT & NBU in tightening mode, NBP not even close
• NBP extends pause, policy to stay loose for some time
• Picking apart the divergence in Central Europe in Q4
• Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.)
• Russian ruble’s tug of war, semiconductor headaches
• Poland Activity Data (Jan.)
• Russia Activity Data (Jan.)
• Central Europe, the pandemic and the inflation outlook
• Hawkish CBR closes the door on further easing
• Poland GDP (Q4 2020)
• Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Sputnik V gets a thumbs up, Turkey’s constitution plans
• Russia GDP (2020)
• Russia’s FDI slump, NS2 in danger, hawkish CBRT
• Vaccination programmes begin, but hurdles remain
• Hungary’s vaccine drive, Turkey’s recovery teeters
• Vaccine rollout, Poland’s policy shift, US data breach
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)
• NBP to cut interest rates, strengthen FX intervention
• Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.)
• Russia Activity Data (Nov.)
• Russia food prices, Czech tax cut, Turkey’s policy shift
• CBR closing the door on its easing cycle
• Is there really a housing bubble forming in Russia?
• Poland, Hungary and the EU budget: what’s at stake
• New forecasts in a world of COVID-19 vaccines
• Poland Activity Data (Oct.)
• Russia Activity Data (Oct.)
• EU budget problems, CBRT delivers tightening
• Easing inflation offers room for MNB to lower rates
• Vaccine hopes, Czech outbreak easing, Turkey’s policy shift?
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2020)
• Russia GDP (Q3 2020)
• What more can policymakers do?
• US election risks, region braces for another lockdown
• Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• NBP holds fire as restrictions are tightened in Poland
• Russia, Turkey, and the implications of the US election
• Czech GDP (Q3 2020)
• Russia’s easing cycle will resume before long
• Poland Activity Data (Sep.)
• Russia Activity Data (Sep.)
• Second waves will stall the near-term recovery
• Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Taking stock of Russia’s coronavirus outbreak
• Poland’s current account surplus is here to stay
• Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
• Tightening in Hungary and Turkey, Poland’s ‘fur crisis’
• Forint weakness to prevent further rate cuts in Hungary
• Poland Activity Data (Aug.)
• Russia Activity Data (Aug.)
• Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Russia’s resilient GDP, virus cases grabbing headlines
• Digging into Russia’s consumer recovery
• Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run
• Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Russian ruble under pressure, Central Europe recovery
• Rising virus cases not a major threat to the recovery
• Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.)
• Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia
• Poland Activity Data (Jul.)
• Russia Activity Data (Jul.)
• Protests in Belarus and what they mean for the region
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2020)
• Russia GDP (Q2 2020)
• Turkey’s FX reserves flashing red
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)
• EU funds & CEE, Turkey sanctions, Russian oil hedging
• Russia opts for small rate cut, cautious easing ahead
• Poland Activity Data (Jun.)
• Russia’s national projects, NBU governor, ERM II
• Russia’s easing cycle entering new waters
• Activity rebounds strongly in Central Europe
• Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• What will Poland’s central bank do next?
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 2020)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)
• Russia’s referendum, Poland’s election, Turkey & MSCI
• Hungary’s central bank brings forward easing
• Poland Activity Data (May)
• NBP eyes weaker zloty, Erdogan tightens economic grip
• Russia cuts rates to a record low, more easing to come
• Four charts on the downturn and economic recovery
• Long-term scarring, auto production, CEE inflation
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Poland: a regional bright spot
• Russia Consumer Prices (May)
• Russia’s fiscal package, Ukrainians leaving Poland
• Poland Activity Data (Apr.)
• How vulnerable are Russia’s banks?
• Russia GDP (Q1 2020)
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2020)
• Czech MPC strikes a conservative tone
• Putin in peril, CEE Q1 GDP
• Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly
• Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.)
• Hungary’s MPC targets the yield curve
• How much will labour markets suffer?
• Russia Activity Data (Mar.)
• Russia’s central bank cuts rates, more to follow
• Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia
• Poland Activity Data (Mar.)
• Coronavirus developments, Turkey and the IMF
• Economies in a stronger position to weather a new crisis
• Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Orbán’s power grab, Russia’s worsening outlook
• What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases
• Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.)
• CEE bond purchases, Russia’s containment measures
• Czech MPC to step up its policy support
• Hungary announces new liquidity-providing tools
• Russia’s economy heading for recession
• Output set to collapse, policy support likely to build
• Russia’s central bank likely to lower rates soon
• Policy response will be stepped up across the region
• Central Europe heading for a sharp contraction in Q2
• Boost from low oil prices to be limited by coronavirus
• Assessing the impact of a weaker ruble for Russia
• Coronavirus policy response, Turkey’s tourism
• Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Policy response from Polish MPC likely to be small
• Coronavirus to hit activity across Emerging Europe
• Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)
• Hungary’s MPC hints at possible rate hike in March
• Hungary: shift towards tightening will be limited
• Poland Activity Data (Jan. 2020)
• Central Europe inflation, Sberbank sale, Turkish lira
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2019)
• Romanian politics, Poland’s judiciary, coronavirus impact
• Investment booms in CEE likely to come to an end
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.)
• Poland Activity Data (Dec.)
• Hungary’s boom has further to run in 2020
• Central Europe: central banks to shrug off high inflation
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)
• Will the wheels come off Central European car output?
• Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)
• CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment
• Poland Activity Data (Oct.)
• Russia’s fiscal boost, Polish rates & Ukraine’s IMF deal
• Russia Activity Data (Oct.)
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2019)
• Strong Q3 GDP figures likely to be the last hurrah
• Q3 GDP figures, the fall of the wall
• Focus of Czech MPC to switch from hikes to cuts
• High inflation will prevent Polish MPC from cutting
• Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.)
• Doves in flight, Turkey-West relations fracturing
• Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery
• Poland Activity Data (Sep.)
• What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term
• Poland’s CHF-mortgage loans & Turkey’s growth plan
• Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)
• Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)
• Hungarian MPC looks set to delay tightening further
• Poland Activity Data (Aug.)
• Russia Activity Data (Aug.)
• Poland’s minimum wage plans, ECB stimulus
• Polish MPC downplays talk of tightening
• CEE currencies will continue to struggle
• Ukraine optimism overdone, robust growth in CEE
• Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
• No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.)
• Poland Activity Data (Jul.)
• Recovery in Hungarian bank lending unlikely to last
• Russia Activity Data (Jul.)
• Rising Polish inflation won’t prompt policy change
• Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2019)
• Industry weakness, Q2 GDP & Turkey’s Bank re-shuffle
• Czech Republic: gradual shift to easing next year
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)
• Industry unlikely to defy survey pessimism for long
• Poland Activity Data (Jun.)
• Russia Activity Data (Jun.)
• Czech underperformance unlikely to continue
• Next Czech rate move likely to be down