Global Economics
Julian Evans-Pritchard
Julian Evans-Pritchard joined Capital Economics in September 2013. Based in Singapore, Julian works with Mark Williams to cover the Chinese economy.
He speaks and reads Chinese, and previously worked as a translator for Caixin, one of China’s leading financial news providers. Julian holds an undergraduate degree in mathematics and economics from the University of York and is currently pursuing a masters degree in economics at the National University of Singapore. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and a member of the Economic Society of Singapore.
Articles published by Julian Evans-Pritchard
- Starting 2022 on the back foot
- Some relief for property developers
- Deposit rates may be next PBOC target
- PBOC takes a bigger bite of the easing apple
- China GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)
- China Trade (Dec.)
- Peak homebuilding
- Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
- China Trade (Nov.)
- RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow?
- Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone
- Service sector recovery remains lacklustre
- LPR on hold but wider easing already underway
- Outbreak quashed, land auction rules eased
- Home sales on the cusp of a rebound
- China Activity & Spending (Oct.)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.)
- Outbreak threatens growth, food panic overdone
- Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015
- Energy shortages starting to ease
- Downturn setting in
- Services recovering but outlook still gloomy
- Pullback in easing expectations overdone
- China GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)
- Property downturn deepens, triggering easing
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
- China Trade (Sep.)
- A property tax could make up for fewer land sales
- Power supply steady, heavy industry under pressure
- Power shortages another blow to global supply chains
- China PMIs (Sep.)
- Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds
- Will US-China decoupling be inflationary?
- Delta blow to give way to property downturn
- Local governments prepare to step in
- Most developers are not on the brink of default
- LPR cuts appear imminent
- Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid
- Mapping decoupling
- China Activity & Spending (Aug.)
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
- Evergrande credit risks, border controls
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- Party soon to target property and healthcare costs
- China Official PMIs (Aug.)
- Property comedown, vaccine setback
- Delta speed bump not the only drag
- Growth jitters, tech woes, Huarong lifeline
- LPR on hold but cuts on the horizon
- Inequality moves up the CPC’s agenda
- China Activity & Spending (Jul.)
- China PMIs (Jul.)
- Investors refocus on long-term concerns
- Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks
- Downhill from here?
- China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)
- China Trade (Jun.)
- RRR cut marks shift in focus, even if not major easing
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
- Employment already declining at pace
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
- No, China isn’t exporting inflation
- China Official PMIs (Jun.)
- Port congestion easing, border reopening timeline
- Employment already declining at pace
- Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year
- China Activity & Spending (May)
- US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (May)
- China Trade (May)
- Can the government spend its way to more births?
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
- The three-child policy: too little, too late
- China Official PMIs (May)
- Surprising on the upside
- Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline
- Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs
- PBOC credit objectives being met without LPR hikes
- China Activity & Spending (Apr.)
- China’s census: the good, the bad and the ugly
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
- China Trade (Apr.)
- Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud
- China PMIs (Apr.)
- Rebound levelling off
- A stronger end to a weaker quarter
- LPR unchanged as PBOC relies on other policy tools
- China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.)
- Investors reassess state support
- China Trade (Mar.)
- PBOC window guidance, census data gems
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
- China Official PMIs (Mar.)
- Throwing in the towel on PBOC rate hikes
- Renminbi turning a corner
- Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite
- LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools
- Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening,
- Quietly doubling down on Made in China 2025
- China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.)
- The 14th Five-Year Plan
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.)
- China Trade (Jan. & Feb.)
- The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl
- Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC
- Ant capitulates, officials chip away at hukou barriers
- China PMIs (Jan.)
- Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued
- Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary)
- Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC
- Growth edges down slightly at the end of 2020
- PBOC takes aim at digital payments duopoly
- A year of two halves
- LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher
- All of the service sector now back to growth
- GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)
- Less travel, more work this Lunar New Year
- China Trade (Dec.)
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)
- Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver
- Property sector facing new restrictions on credit
- China PMIs (Dec.)
- And the winner of 2020 is…
- Growth still being buoyed by stimulus & exports
- CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy
- Tech crackdown, demand-side reform
- China Activity & Spending (Nov.)
- Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
- China Trade (Nov.)
- Financial decoupling meets financial coupling
- What to expect in 2021
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
- China Official PMIs (Nov.)
- Credit risk awakens from COVID-19 hibernation
- LPR unchanged as PBOC focuses on financial risks
- Growth accelerates to a three-year high
- China Activity & Spending (Oct.)
- China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)
- China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.)
- Trade (Oct.)
- Biden victory is not a win for China
- Tech giants in the Party’s crosshairs
- PMIs (Oct.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
- Plenum readout heavy on ambition, light on detail
- The high stakes for China’s Five-Year Plan
- The “lose-lose” behind China’s self-sufficiency push
- Growth hits a two-year high
- Services still uneven but improving across the board
- LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year
- GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)
- Export outlook still strong despite virus flare-ups
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
- Trade (Sep.)
- Recovery broadening out
- Holiday spending boon, property developer caution
- PMIs (Sep.)
- Policymakers refocus on property developer debt
- Government bonds to rally in the coming years
- Growth now back to pre-virus path
- LPR on hold with hikes likely next year
- COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror
- Stars aligned for further renminbi appreciation
- Activity & Spending (Aug.)
- Trade surplus near all-time global high
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
- Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
- Trade (Aug.)
- Strength of property investment unlikely to last
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
- Official PMIs (Aug.)
- Low oil prices are supporting the recovery
- Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing
- Stimulus is once again proving costly for banks
- Little appetite for further LPR declines
- Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery
- Activity & Spending (Jul.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
- The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time
- Trade (Jul.)
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
- State share of investment heading for a 10-year high
- Official PMIs (Jul.)
- What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT?
- Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
- Xi’s “new development model” is more of the same
- LPR unchanged as policy priorities shift
- The upside to China’s wary consumers
- An uneven recovery, especially within services
- GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)
- Trade (Jun.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)
- Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
- The cost of going it “alone”
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI
- Official PMIs
- Beijing adds to bond deluge, floods flag climate risks
- Export sector cushioned by COVID-linked demand
- LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end
- Monetary easing cycle nearing an end
- A faster recovery now likely
- Activity & Spending (May)
- “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (May)
- Trade (May)
- Stimulus ramp-up points to state-led recovery
- PMIs (May)
- HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions
- Debt-to-GDP ratio to jump by most on record this year
- The NPC delivers on policy stimulus
- US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook
- A temporary pause in rate declines
- Activity & Spending (Apr.)
- What to watch at the NPC
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)
- Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi
- Trade (Apr.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
- Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery
- PMIs (Apr.)
- Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility Rate
- Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1
- Downturn pushing China towards zero lower bound
- GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.)
- PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come
- Trade (Mar.)
- Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years
- SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery
- PBOC moves to keep interbank rates low
- Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus
- LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing
- Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.)
- PBOC loosens further as newly-reported cases stall
- PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)
- Lower oil prices offer small comfort amid downturn
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.)
- Trade (Jan. & Feb.)
- Bond yields at decade lows, RMB defies growth slump
- Policy stimulus: How much and will it work?
- PMIs (Feb.)
- Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China
- Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
- Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable
- Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment
- PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come
- Economy still on hold three weeks after Lunar NY
- What to make of the jump in COVID-19 cases
- Coronavirus disruptions set to drag on
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.)
- Coronavirus spread, tariff rollbacks
- FX Reserves (Jan.)
- Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response
- Coronavirus: What to watch in the coming days
- Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary)
- PBOC steps up rate cuts in response to Coronavirus
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
- Rapid spread of coronavirus adds to downside risks
- Loan Prime Rate (Jan.)
- Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi
- GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)
- Trade (Dec.)
- Inflation to drop back sharply, bond rally not over
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)
- FX Reserves (Dec.)
- PMIs (Dec.)
- Defaults hurt credit allocation, banks kept afloat
- Loan Prime Rates on hold but cuts still on the horizon
- The PBOC remains in easing mode
- Activity & Spending (Nov.)
- US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending
- What to expect in 2020
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
- China Property Handbook
- Trade & FX Reserves (Nov.)
- Corporate balance sheets still under strain
- PMIs (Nov.)
- US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance
- Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions
- PBOC cuts feed through to lower bank rates
- PBOC nudges down its floor on interbank rates
- Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown
- Activity & Spending (Oct.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)
- The PBOC’s inflation dilemma
- Trade (Oct.)
- FX Reserves (Oct.)
- PBOC turning more proactive
- Plenum readout, stagflation fears, RCEP Summit
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q3 preliminary)
- Official PMIs (Oct.)
- Business environment improves, net state assets rise
- Easing yet to come
- Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls
- GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)
- US and China no closer to a lasting resolution
- Trade (Sep.)
- Lasting trade deal elusive, holidaymakers stay home
- FX Reserves (Sep.)
- Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse
- PMIs (Sep.)
- Excess infrastructure, bond quota confusion
- Growth edges down as property construction levels off
- Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing
- Another small step towards lower rates
- Monetary policy has lost its oomph
- Swine fever inflation shock to worsen
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
- Hong Kong’s banks can weather the storm
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
- Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.)
- Monetary easing taking precedence over fiscal support
- RRR reduction to be followed by PBOC rate cuts
- PMIs (August)
- Transhipments and weaker RMB are blunting US tariffs
- US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB
- US attack on RMB would flop, fiscal cliff avoided
- Recent strength unlikely to last
- Loan Prime Rate (Aug.)
- Interest rate reform with a side of policy easing
- Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough
- Protests to push Hong Kong into a recession
- Activity & Spending (Jul.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
- The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi
- Trade (Jul.)
- FX Reserves (Jul.)
- China’s next steps in the trade war
- FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations
- China’s next steps in the trade war
- PBOC weaponizes the renminbi
- US tariffs, PBOC easing, property controls
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
- Hong Kong GDP (Q2 preliminary)
- Official PMIs (July)
- US-China FDI, PBOC governor talks rates
- A strong end to Q2
- Property construction boom is fizzling out
- GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)
- People’s Bank to follow the Fed
- Trade (Jun.)
- Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
- Fiscal stimulus is back, property curbs still in place
- PMIs (June)
- G20 truce, armyworm epidemic
- PBOC rate cuts appear imminent
- What might trigger a hard landing?
- Trade (Sep.)
- Assessing the inflation risk from African swine fever
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
- Consumer Prices (Feb.)
- Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
- French & Spanish GDP (Q4)
- How would China fight a trade war?
- Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens
- Malaysia Trade (Oct.)
- Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power
- Malaysia GDP (Q2)
- Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook
- Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
Global Economics
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