Global Economics

Julian Evans-Pritchard joined Capital Economics in September 2013. Based in Singapore, Julian works with Mark Williams to cover the Chinese economy.

Articles published by Julian Evans-Pritchard

• A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed
• CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce
• Goods are piling up at Chinese factories
• CAP: Outbreaks knock output back to 2019 levels
• Policy easing stepping up
• How quickly can activity rebound?
• A helping hand for the housing market
• China Activity & Spending (Apr.)
• Testing, testing, testing
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)
• No good options
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• China Trade (Apr.)
• Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough?
• Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push
• No quick fix this time
• The PBOC disappoints again
• China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.)
• RRR cut alone will do little to boost credit growth
• PBOC shows surprising restraint amid downturn
• Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving
• China Trade (Mar.)
• Housing market revival delayed by outbreak
• China Official PMIs (Mar.)
• Omicron continues to take a toll
• A stronger start to 2022 gives way to fresh weakness
• COVID-19 derails China’s domestic recovery yet again
• China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.), PBOC Rates (Mar.)
• The near-term outlook has deteriorated
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.)
• China’s economic roadmap for 2022
• China Trade (Jan. & Feb.)
• Hong Kong underlines risks of zero-COVID opening
• China stands to lose not gain from war in Ukraine
• China PMIs (Feb.)
• What to expect from the NPC
• Green shoots in the housing market
• Olympics highlights growing rift with the West
• A pause, not an end, to easing
• Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends
• US-China trade deal stalemate will drag on
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
• HK virus woes, holiday travel, fiscal support
• China PMIs (Jan.)
• Too much of a good thing?
• Starting 2022 on the back foot
• Some relief for property developers
• Deposit rates may be next PBOC target
• PBOC takes a bigger bite of the easing apple
• China GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)
• China Trade (Dec.)
• Peak homebuilding
• Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
• China Trade (Nov.)
• RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow?
• Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone
• Service sector recovery remains lacklustre
• LPR on hold but wider easing already underway
• Outbreak quashed, land auction rules eased
• Home sales on the cusp of a rebound
• China Activity & Spending (Oct.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.)
• Outbreak threatens growth, food panic overdone
• Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015
• Energy shortages starting to ease
• Downturn setting in
• Services recovering but outlook still gloomy
• Pullback in easing expectations overdone
• China GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)
• Property downturn deepens, triggering easing
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
• China Trade (Sep.)
• A property tax could make up for fewer land sales
• Power supply steady, heavy industry under pressure
• Power shortages another blow to global supply chains
• China PMIs (Sep.)
• Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds
• Will US-China decoupling be inflationary?
• Delta blow to give way to property downturn
• Local governments prepare to step in
• Most developers are not on the brink of default
• LPR cuts appear imminent
• Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid
• Mapping decoupling
• China Activity & Spending (Aug.)
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
• Evergrande credit risks, border controls
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Party soon to target property and healthcare costs
• China Official PMIs (Aug.)
• Property comedown, vaccine setback
• Delta speed bump not the only drag
• Growth jitters, tech woes, Huarong lifeline
• LPR on hold but cuts on the horizon
• Inequality moves up the CPC’s agenda
• China Activity & Spending (Jul.)
• China PMIs (Jul.)
• Investors refocus on long-term concerns
• Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks
• Downhill from here?
• China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)
• China Trade (Jun.)
• RRR cut marks shift in focus, even if not major easing
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
• Employment already declining at pace
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• No, China isn’t exporting inflation
• China Official PMIs (Jun.)
• Port congestion easing, border reopening timeline
• Employment already declining at pace
• Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year
• China Activity & Spending (May)
• US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (May)
• China Trade (May)
• Can the government spend its way to more births?
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
• The three-child policy: too little, too late
• China Official PMIs (May)
• Surprising on the upside
• Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline
• Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs
• PBOC credit objectives being met without LPR hikes
• China Activity & Spending (Apr.)
• China’s census: the good, the bad and the ugly
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• China Trade (Apr.)
• Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud
• China PMIs (Apr.)
• Rebound levelling off
• A stronger end to a weaker quarter
• LPR unchanged as PBOC relies on other policy tools
• China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.)
• Investors reassess state support
• China Trade (Mar.)
• PBOC window guidance, census data gems
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• China Official PMIs (Mar.)
• Throwing in the towel on PBOC rate hikes
• Renminbi turning a corner
• Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite
• LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools
• Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening,
• Quietly doubling down on Made in China 2025
• China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.)
• The 14th Five-Year Plan
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.)
• China Trade (Jan. & Feb.)
• The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl
• Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC
• Ant capitulates, officials chip away at hukou barriers
• China PMIs (Jan.)
• Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued
• Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary)
• Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC
• Growth edges down slightly at the end of 2020
• PBOC takes aim at digital payments duopoly
• A year of two halves
• LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher
• All of the service sector now back to growth
• GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)
• Less travel, more work this Lunar New Year
• China Trade (Dec.)
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)
• Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver
• Property sector facing new restrictions on credit
• China PMIs (Dec.)
• And the winner of 2020 is…
• Growth still being buoyed by stimulus & exports
• CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy
• Tech crackdown, demand-side reform
• China Activity & Spending (Nov.)
• Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
• China Trade (Nov.)
• Financial decoupling meets financial coupling
• What to expect in 2021
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• China Official PMIs (Nov.)
• Credit risk awakens from COVID-19 hibernation
• LPR unchanged as PBOC focuses on financial risks
• Growth accelerates to a three-year high
• China Activity & Spending (Oct.)
• China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)
• China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.)
• Trade (Oct.)
• Biden victory is not a win for China
• Tech giants in the Party’s crosshairs
• PMIs (Oct.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
• Plenum readout heavy on ambition, light on detail
• The high stakes for China’s Five-Year Plan
• The “lose-lose” behind China’s self-sufficiency push
• Growth hits a two-year high
• Services still uneven but improving across the board
• LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year
• GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)
• Export outlook still strong despite virus flare-ups
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
• Trade (Sep.)
• Recovery broadening out
• Holiday spending boon, property developer caution
• PMIs (Sep.)
• Policymakers refocus on property developer debt
• Government bonds to rally in the coming years
• Growth now back to pre-virus path
• LPR on hold with hikes likely next year
• COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror
• Stars aligned for further renminbi appreciation
• Activity & Spending (Aug.)
• Trade surplus near all-time global high
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
• Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
• Trade (Aug.)
• Strength of property investment unlikely to last
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Official PMIs (Aug.)
• Low oil prices are supporting the recovery
• Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing
• Stimulus is once again proving costly for banks
• Little appetite for further LPR declines
• Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery
• Activity & Spending (Jul.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
• The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time
• Trade (Jul.)
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
• State share of investment heading for a 10-year high
• Official PMIs (Jul.)
• What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT?
• Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
• Xi’s “new development model” is more of the same
• LPR unchanged as policy priorities shift
• The upside to China’s wary consumers
• An uneven recovery, especially within services
• GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)
• Trade (Jun.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)
• Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
• The cost of going it “alone”
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• Official PMIs
• Beijing adds to bond deluge, floods flag climate risks
• Export sector cushioned by COVID-linked demand
• LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end
• Monetary easing cycle nearing an end
• A faster recovery now likely
• Activity & Spending (May)
• “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (May)
• Trade (May)
• Stimulus ramp-up points to state-led recovery
• PMIs (May)
• HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions
• Debt-to-GDP ratio to jump by most on record this year
• The NPC delivers on policy stimulus
• US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook
• A temporary pause in rate declines
• Activity & Spending (Apr.)
• What to watch at the NPC
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)
• Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi
• Trade (Apr.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery
• PMIs (Apr.)
• Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility Rate
• Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1
• Downturn pushing China towards zero lower bound
• GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.)
• PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come
• Trade (Mar.)
• Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years
• SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery
• PBOC moves to keep interbank rates low
• Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus
• LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing
• Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.)
• PBOC loosens further as newly-reported cases stall
• PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)
• Lower oil prices offer small comfort amid downturn
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.)
• Trade (Jan. & Feb.)
• Bond yields at decade lows, RMB defies growth slump
• Policy stimulus: How much and will it work?
• PMIs (Feb.)
• Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China
• Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)
• Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable
• Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment
• PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come
• Economy still on hold three weeks after Lunar NY
• What to make of the jump in COVID-19 cases
• Coronavirus disruptions set to drag on
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.)
• Coronavirus spread, tariff rollbacks
• FX Reserves (Jan.)
• Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response
• Coronavirus: What to watch in the coming days
• Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary)
• PBOC steps up rate cuts in response to Coronavirus
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)
• Rapid spread of coronavirus adds to downside risks
• Loan Prime Rate (Jan.)
• Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi
• GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)
• Trade (Dec.)
• Inflation to drop back sharply, bond rally not over
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)
• FX Reserves (Dec.)
• PMIs (Dec.)
• Defaults hurt credit allocation, banks kept afloat
• Loan Prime Rates on hold but cuts still on the horizon
• The PBOC remains in easing mode
• Activity & Spending (Nov.)
• US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending
• What to expect in 2020
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)
• China Property Handbook
• Trade & FX Reserves (Nov.)
• Corporate balance sheets still under strain
• PMIs (Nov.)
• US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance
• Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions
• PBOC cuts feed through to lower bank rates
• PBOC nudges down its floor on interbank rates
• Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown
• Activity & Spending (Oct.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)
• The PBOC’s inflation dilemma
• Trade (Oct.)
• FX Reserves (Oct.)
• PBOC turning more proactive
• Plenum readout, stagflation fears, RCEP Summit
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q3 preliminary)
• Official PMIs (Oct.)
• Business environment improves, net state assets rise
• Easing yet to come
• Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls
• GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)
• US and China no closer to a lasting resolution
• Trade (Sep.)
• Lasting trade deal elusive, holidaymakers stay home
• FX Reserves (Sep.)
• Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse
• PMIs (Sep.)
• Excess infrastructure, bond quota confusion
• Growth edges down as property construction levels off
• Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing
• Another small step towards lower rates
• Monetary policy has lost its oomph
• Swine fever inflation shock to worsen
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)
• Hong Kong’s banks can weather the storm
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)
• Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.)
• Monetary easing taking precedence over fiscal support
• RRR reduction to be followed by PBOC rate cuts
• PMIs (August)
• Transhipments and weaker RMB are blunting US tariffs
• US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB
• US attack on RMB would flop, fiscal cliff avoided
• Recent strength unlikely to last
• Loan Prime Rate (Aug.)
• Interest rate reform with a side of policy easing
• Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough
• Protests to push Hong Kong into a recession
• Activity & Spending (Jul.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
• The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi
• Trade (Jul.)
• FX Reserves (Jul.)
• China’s next steps in the trade war
• FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations
• China’s next steps in the trade war
• PBOC weaponizes the renminbi
• US tariffs, PBOC easing, property controls
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)
• Hong Kong GDP (Q2 preliminary)
• Official PMIs (July)
• US-China FDI, PBOC governor talks rates
• A strong end to Q2
• Property construction boom is fizzling out
• GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)
• People’s Bank to follow the Fed
• Trade (Jun.)
• Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)
• Fiscal stimulus is back, property curbs still in place
• PMIs (June)
• G20 truce, armyworm epidemic
• PBOC rate cuts appear imminent
• What might trigger a hard landing?
• Trade (Sep.)
• Assessing the inflation risk from African swine fever
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)
• Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.)
• French & Spanish GDP (Q4)
• How would China fight a trade war?
• Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens
• Malaysia Trade (Oct.)
• Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power
• Malaysia GDP (Q2)
• Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook
• Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)