Global Economics

Jason Tuvey is a Senior Emerging Markets Economist, helping to oversee our coverage of Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Jason joined Capital Economics in 2012 and has developed a strong track record in that time; he was named the number one forecaster for Turkey from both Consensus Economics and FocusEconomics in 2018 – the year of the country’s latest currency crisis.

Jason regularly presents to clients and has been widely quoted by the world’s leading media organisations, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and the BBC. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.

Articles published by Jason Tuvey

• CBRT: knock knock, anybody there?
• South Africa Consumer Prices (May)
• Where next for inflation in South Africa?
• Key questions on capital controls in Turkey
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls
• Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises
• OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies
• Turkey GDP (Q1 2022)
• Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB?
• Inflation at 70%, lira tumbling – but still CBRT holds
• Nigeria GDP (Q1)
• Poland Activity Data (Apr.)
• Hungary tightening, ruble strength, Bulgaria support
• Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira?
• Russia GDP (Q1 2022)
• South Africa Activity Data (Mar.)
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)
• SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• South Africa Activity Data (Feb.)
• SARB will continue to tighten slowly
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Virus restrictions eased, Kenya’s fleeting budget
• Ghana’s policy tightening to hold back recovery
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• SA wage talks, central banks turn hawkish, Tanzania-IMF
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• Nigeria’s recovery picks up but FX policies start to bite
• Ghana’s debt fight, rate decisions, Ethiopia’s conflict
• SARB continues to tighten, hawks gaining ground
• War in Ukraine exacerbates external pressures
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales
• Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• The war in Ukraine and Saudi oil policy
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector
• Russia and SWIFT: key questions answered
• Turkey GDP (Q4 2021)
• How does South Africa deal with its debt problem?
• CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold
• Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region
• SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF?
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes?
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off
• CBRT: rates held in pursuit of “new economic model”
• South Africa Activity Data (Nov.)
• Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.)
• What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022
• First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme
• Turkey’s crisis in four charts
• Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on
• CBRT continues to defy orthodoxy in face of lira crisis
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Turkey & the macro fallout from past “sudden stops”
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Omicron, tourism and the oil market
• Turkey GDP (Q3 2021)
• Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics
• Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops”
• Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant
• Assessing the risks in Turkey’s banking sector
• CBRT defies investors with rate cut, crisis risks mount
• All eyes on CBRT as Turkish lira continues to tumble
• Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Russia Activity Data (Sep.)
• Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty
• ANC election struggles, Eskom woes, Nigerian subsidies
• Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3)
• Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.)
• What would a lower inflation target mean for S. Africa?
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Turkey’s external position still in dire straits
• Czech the exception as rate hikes slow, Russia sanctions
• Turkey: Erdogan gets his way with surprise rate cut
• MNB to stick with slower pace of tightening
• Poland Activity Data (Aug.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support
• South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.)
• South Africa GDP (Q2)
• OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight
• Morocco’s recovery to surprise on the upside
• Turkey GDP (Q2 2021)
• Egypt’s COVID outbreak, Tunisia’s president tightens grip
• COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out
• Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty
• A dive into Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments
• Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals
• Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening
• Delta variant poses biggest threat to non-Gulf economies
• South Africa after the unrest
• Assessing the impact of the unrest in South Africa
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May)
• SA wage negotiations, Ethiopia debt restructuring
• NBP in no rush to tighten policy
• Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates
• Nigeria’s oil reform, Angola’s debt, SA restrictions
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)
• SA: little hit from tighter restrictions, SARB to stay dovish
• Iran: nuclear deal, elections and the economy
• Erdogan piles on the pressure, Israel’s surprise coalition
• Turkey Consumer Prices (May)
• Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence
• Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Taking stock of Turkey’s economic recovery
• Israel-Gaza conflict, CEE inflation spike
• SA rand, third wave risks, power problems
• Israel Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Poland GDP (Q1 2021, First Estimate)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, Flash Estimate)
• CBRT eyeing up an easing cycle
• Turkey heading into lockdown as CEE starts to re-open
• South Africa’s banks weathering the storm
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Jordan’s royal tumult, OPEC+ surprise, UAE’s vaccines
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective
• Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Talk of debt risks, fears over gas projects in Mozambique
• South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
• New forecasts for Turkey
• Revisiting Turkey’s dire external position
• Turkey’s banks are a major cause for concern
• Erdogan sacks Agbal, risk of currency crisis grows
• SARB will be in no rush to tighten policy
• CBRT overdelivers to reassure investors
• What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down?
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Turkey’s CA deficit, sticky inflation in Hungary
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Turkey GDP (Q4 2020)
• Market rout grips Turkey, third waves the talk in CEE
• CBRT holds and steps up its rhetoric on inflation fight
• Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy and the impact so far
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Revisiting the problems at Eskom
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4, Flash Estimate)
• Another look at food inflation fears in EMs
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Poland GDP (2020)
• Poland Activity Data (Dec.)
• CBRT holds fire amid lira rally, faltering economy
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.)
• What next for the Turkish lira?
• 2021 off to a bad start in SA, limits to regional trade pact
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• What to look out for in 2021
• The Arab Spring: 10 years on
• Saudi budget: keeping a tight grip on the purse strings
• Four key developments to focus on in 2021
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Turkey sanctions threat, EU compromise, CEE inflation
• Adjusting our forecasts in light of COVID-19 vaccines
• South African state of COVID-affairs, cocoa wars
• COVID-19 vaccines and the implications for Africa
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Turkey GDP (Q3)
• UAE oil discovery and OPEC, protests in Tunisia
• Aramco issuance, OPEC-JMMC, Lebanon politics
• CBRT steps up to the plate
• Debt relief: the state of play and what’s next
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)
• COVID-19 vaccine hopes, asset sales, UAE reforms
• Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate)
• Saudi recovery hopes dim
• Make or break time for Turkey
• Pressure builds on CBRT, currency crisis fears grow
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT, protests in Poland
• Debt and despair in SA & Zambia, election jitters
• South Africa MTBPS: between a rock and a hard place
• Putting the Turkish lira’s fall into context
• COVID in South Africa, Nigeria protests, Zambia hopes
• CBRT’s ‘corridor’ tweaks disappoint
• Default and debt relief, stale SA recovery plan
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Turkey and the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Geopolitical tensions in Turkey, tighter restrictions in CEE
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2)
• Shades of debt relief, rand battered in risk-off mood
• Saudi fiscal policy, Umrah pilgrimages, Egypt rate cut?
• CBRT clawing back credibility
• Lira to fall further as policy response fails to appease
• Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary
• OPEC, peace to business for UAE & Israel, Saudi mills
• Saudi consumer resilience unlikely to last
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Saudi recovery stutters
• Tunisia and Lebanon politics, Saudi corruption drive
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Africa and the impact of weaker remittances
• Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery
• Flurry of FX action in Nigeria, looming strikes in SA
• Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind
• Turkey’s gas discovery & budget deficit, crisis in Belarus
• Oman’s reshuffle, peace with Israel, Saudi-OPEC
• Turkey: bar for policy rate hikes is very high
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Lira intervention, Russia’s vaccine, CEE inflation
• CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.)
• First thoughts on the Israel-UAE peace deal
• Lebanon’s woes, Oman’s loan to precede Gulf support
• Saudi budget deficit to narrow, debt to rise
• Turkey’s banks still the weak link
• How will policymakers respond to the falling lira?
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT to respond
• Assessing the hit to Turkey’s current account position
• The impact of the Beirut blast
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Czech GDP, Turkish inflation and lira, Russian ruble
• Oil output cuts, austerity to hold back Saudi recovery
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.)
• South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Further falls lie in store for Turkish lira
• Turkey: rates on hold as inflation concerns grow
• The future of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy
• Ethiopia’s dam, South Africa’s fiscal conundrum
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May)
• Naira devaluation, uncertainty in CIV, industrialisation
• A deep dive into Turkey’s latest credit boom
• Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Saudi past the worst but austerity will hinder recovery
• Turkey’s central bank closes the door on easing cycle
• Saudi Consumer Prices (May)
• Can South Africa’s banks weather the Covid fallout?
• Lebanon’s crisis, Egypt-Ethiopia spat, Hajj suspension,
• Lebanon’s crisis goes from really bad to even worse
• Saudi inflation and the impact of the VAT hike
• Turkey’s fiscal position no longer a source of comfort
• Saudi reserves and the PIF, lessons from the EGP fall
• Turkey Consumer Prices (May)
• Saudi: Q2 collapse to be followed by weak recovery
• Manufacturing PMIs (May)
• Nagy resigns, EU recovery package, activity data
• Turkey GDP (Q1)
• Easing lockdowns, hopes for summer tourist season
• Economic Sentiment Indicators (May)
• Turkey’s temporary reprieve, EU budget proposals
• Bailout talks for Dubai, Egyptian pound weakens
• Turkey: rates cut, door opens for more easing
• Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves: when should we worry?
• Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity
• Turkey’s external hit, Karlsruhe ruling, Russia’s lockdown
• CBE holds rates as it keeps a close eye on the pound
• IMF talks, curfews, oil output cuts, Saudi inflation
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)
• Saudi households at forefront of austerity drive
• Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis
• Saudi steps up austerity, Bahrain support to rise
• A closer look at how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves
• Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.)
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Storm brewing in Turkey, Czech easing restrictions
• Saudi balance sheet, curfews easing, Lebanon spat
• Egypt returns to the IMF
• Futile lira defence, CEE bond purchases
• Saudi fiscal tightening, Algeria woes, remittance slump
• Saudi can withstand pressure on riyal
• Turkey: rates cut again, but lira limits scope for more
• Gulf to rely on austerity rather than devaluations
• Turkish markets under pressure, but resilient elsewhere
• Saudi oil policy, Oman budget cuts, IMF in MENA
• Will Turkey turn to the IMF?
• Bond sales, NMC Health, Lebanese pound, OPEC+
• Egypt, the pound and lessons from the past
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Turkey: banks more vulnerable than in currency crisis
• Saudi to dig in, Expo delay adds to Dubai debt fears
• How long will the Gulf endure oil at $20pb?
• Region to suffer worst downturn since the 1980s
• Slashing our forecasts across the region
• Saudi oil policy, MENA virus responses ramp up
• Revisiting Turkey’s external vulnerabilities
• Will the Gulf’s dollar pegs survive the fall in oil prices?
• The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on MENA
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Turkey GDP (Q4)
• Saudi downturn has passed its trough
• Saudi pilgrimages, Lebanese default, Tunisian dinar
• Turkish government eyes Isbank, EU budget problems
• CBE to pause easing cycle for a little longer
• Russia Activity Data (Jan.)
• Lebanon default fears, Tunisia finally has a government
• Turkey: easing cycle near an end, hikes later this year
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Oil output cuts, Dubai property, Lebanon-IMF talks
• Lebanon: what will an IMF deal look like?
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.)
• Support for Turkish lira cannot be sustained
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Russia’s central bank keeps door open to more easing
• Surprise Czech rate hike to be a one-off
• Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Lebanon’s debt, Tunisia’s government, Jordan-IMF deal
• Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• CBRT’s optimism, Central Europe to slow further
• Oil price drop, Lebanon default risk, failed Saudi attacks
• Russia Activity Data (Dec.)
• A poor end to the decade for Saudi Arabia’s economy
• Turkish inflation, Russia’s government, US tariff threat
• Egypt: pound strength unlikely to last
• Lebanon’s new (and Tunisia’s lack of) government
• Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• CBE pauses for breath, but more rate cuts still in store
• Lebanon’s debt swap, Egypt’s pound, Kuwait’s budget
• CBRT bows to Erdogan but will have to backpedal
• Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Oman: new Sultan faces big economic challenges
• Turkey’s banking risks, boom time in Hungary
• Iran tensions, Egyptian inflation jumps
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• US-Iran tensions and the threat to the rest of MENA
• Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey
• Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• Saudi economy contracts, Sultan Qaboos’ health scare
• Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.)
• Weak Turkish lira, Polish inflation, what to look for in 2020
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation
• Turkey Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Saudi 2020 budget: austerity makes a comeback
• Lebanon: how do things play out from here?
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Turkey GDP (Q3)
• Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip
• Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations
• Egypt’s central bank governor, Lebanese debt, Saudi tax
• Saudi economic downturn deepened in Q3
• Lebanon crisis, Moroccan growth, UAE insolvency law
• Lebanon and devaluation: a bitter medicine?
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Turkey’s current account, Hungary’s strong GDP
• Egypt’s easing cycle has further to run
• Lebanon’s woes, Qatar blockade, Kuwaiti infighting
• Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks
• Egypt: inflation to stay weak, more rate cuts on the way
• Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks
• The economic implications of the Aramco IPO
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Investment the weak spot in Turkey’s recovery
• OPEC+ output cuts, UK-Egypt flights, Lebanon protests
• CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020
• Why Lebanon is heading for a debt restructuring
• Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks
• Egypt’s IMF talks, Saudi stocks drop, Tunisia elections
• Turkey and sanctions: the calm before the storm?
• Revisiting the vulnerabilities in Turkey’s banking sector
• Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.)
• Turkey sanctions threat rises, Romania’s government falls
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Saudi downturn to deepen
• Turkey and the latest sanctions threat
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• A spotlight on inflation problems
• Saudi GDP (Q2)
• Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut
• Saudi oil output rebounds, expat levy, Thomas Cook
• Egypt: protests and the economic impact
• Turkey’s banks, Russia’s fiscal stimulus
• Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war
• Fallout from Abqaiq attacks, Lebanon aid not a panacea
• Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles
• Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks
• Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Jul.)
• Saudi oil output cuts, Egyptian inflation, Tunisian polls
• CBRT: more near-term rate cuts, but hikes loom in 2020
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal
• Aramco IPO, Lebanon’s emergency, clouds over Dubai
• Saudi banks turn to wholesale borrowing
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Turkey GDP (Q2)
• Bahrain and Oman: neighbours unlikely to pull the plug
• Turkish lira’s resilience built on shaky foundations
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Turkey’s Inflation Report, Russia sanctions, Polish inflation
• Saudi budget data, BinLadin debt, Tunisian elections
• Gulf sovereign debt fears centre on Bahrain and Oman
• Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse
• Saudi economy continues to lose steam
• Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle
• Erdogan gets his way with aggressive rate cut
• US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Turkey to embark on aggressive rate cuts, Ukraine elections
• Saudi sanctions and shopping, Egypt & Tunisia IMF deals
• Saudi consumer strength unlikely to be sustained
• Turkish banks vulnerable to fresh market turbulence
• Erdogan at the wheel, inflation eases in CEE
• Turkey Industrial Production (May)
• Egyptian fuel prices and rate cuts, US sanctions Lebanon
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• The implications of the CBRT reshuffle
• UAE: slowdown to be short-lived
• Saudi slowdown, Aramco IPO, IMF worries over Lebanon
• Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Turkey and the threat of US sanctions
• Assessing the fallout from the Istanbul mayoral election
• A closer look at Turkey’s FX reserves