Global Economics

James Swanston is a Middle East and North Africa Economist in our Emerging Markets team. James re-joined Capital Economics permanently in August 2017 after completing his studies, having previously spent a year at Capital Economics on an industrial placement as part of his undergraduate degree. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.

Articles published by James Swanston

• Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• What to expect in MENA in 2022
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.)
• OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget
• Omicron puts a small bump on the road to recovery
• Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Iran-JCPOA, Qatar’s budget, UAE working week shift
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf
• Gulf ends 2021 strongly but Omicron a key threat
• Saudi economy set for a strong end to the year
• SPR release, Turkey exposure, Egypt price adjustments
• Tunisia’s fragile external position poses risk to dinar
• Tunisia fiscal policy, Egypt’s private sector, COVID-19
• Pockets of vulnerability in MENA banking sectors
• Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate)
• Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan
• Saudi recovery set up for strong end to the year
• Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed
• Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.)
• Rising inflation to delay resumption of CBE’s easing
• OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF
• Lebanon and Tunisia face a tough task to tackle crises
• What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf?
• Egypt and UAE inflation, OPEC+, austerity in Algeria
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• OPEC+ fallout, Oman’s upgrade, TUI cancellations
• Egypt’s recovery facing several headwinds
• Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
• Oil rallies, Bahrain VAT hike, Tunisia gets a new PM
• Qatar gas, Morocco FX purchases, Tunisian turmoil
• Dubai World Expo: near-term boost, debt risks linger
• Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold for now
• Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans
• Jordan’s public finances a cause for concern
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Saudi economic recovery hits a bump in the road
• Russians return to Egypt, Saudi budget deficit narrows
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2, Flash Estimate)
• Egypt: rate cuts still on the cards
• UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.)
• Unrest in Tunisia, Gulf restrictions, Egypt fuel hike
• Saudi economy picking up pace
• Tunisia: political turmoil further raises debt risks
• Saudi-UAE oil deal, Saudi fuel cap, Moroccan reforms
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.)
• Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit
• Saudi inflation to slump, risks lie to the downside
• Saudi recovery gathering pace
• Kuwaiti budget, Iran’s next president, OPEC+ meeting
• The latest on COVID-19 and vaccines in MENA
• Egypt: rates to remain on hold until Q4
• Hajj limited again, Iran election, Dubai property
• Egyptian pound’s rally to go into reverse
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May)
• Egypt vaccine, MENA tourism, Iran nuclear talks
• Egypt Consumer Prices (May)
• Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening
• Whole Economy PMIs (May)
• Saudi: easing of restrictions paves way for H2 recovery
• Bahrain COVID-19 surge, Oman strikes, OPEC+ meeting
• Tourism set for uneven recovery
• Iran deal, Gulf re-opening, Tunisia debt restructuring
• Egypt’s gas sector to provide a boost to the recovery
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances
• Saudi: fiscal purse strings kept tight, for now
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.)
• Tunisia and the IMF, April’s PMIs, Hajj restrictions
• Lessons from the UAE’s vaccine rollout
• Saudi: weak Q1, recovery to resume over rest of 2021
• Takeaways from MbS’s interview
• Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold, for now
• Vaccination roll outs pick up pace
• Saudi privatisation, UAE TESS extended, Tunisian politics
• Iran nuclear deal, Egypt in the GBI-EM, vaccine worries
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Revisiting the risks in the UAE’s banking sector
• Saudi investment plans, UAE vaccine, Jordan-IMF
• Tighter virus restrictions weigh on Saudi recovery
• Oman and Bahrain fiscal woes, Egypt SMEs, Suez Canal
• Egypt's public finances on the right track
• Lebanon crisis, Saudi privatisation law, vaccine latest
• Tunisia heading for a debt restructuring
• Saudi oil attacks, PIF loan, Egyptian bond yields
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• OPEC+ meeting, Oman loan, vaccine latest
• Saudi still failing to entice foreign investors
• Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.)
• Saudi recovery remains weak at start of 2021
• Iran nuclear deal, Kuwaiti budget, Lebanon vaccine
• Saudi HQ demands, oil prices, Morocco vaccine hope
• Lebanon: no signs of a turnaround
• Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• Oil price rise, Saudi law codification
• Saudi unemployment rate to fall only gradually
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.)
• CBE to keep rates on hold until later this year
• Kuwait budget, COVID-19 restrictions, Egypt rate cut?
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.)
• SAMA shakeup, UAE banks, latest on COVID-19
• Dubai: a final hurdle before entering the home straight
• Tunisian protests, US ‘green’ shift, Saudi vaccines
• Saudi recovery struggling to gather momentum
• Tunisia and the IMF, UAE COVID outbreak, “The Line”
• Egypt: rising inflation to keep easing cycle on pause
• Saudi oil output, vaccine rollout, Qatar un-blockaded
• End to Qatar blockade not an economic gamechanger
• Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.)
• COVID-19 vaccines, Dubai tourism, Egypt privatisations
• Egypt budget, Bahrain stimulus, Dubai property
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• OPEC+ deal, Qatar blockade, Morocco and the IMF
• Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.)
• Are the region’s currency pegs still credible?
• CBE to continue cautious loosening cycle
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.)
• US election, oil output cuts, COVID-19 restrictions
• How will Gulf governments finance budget deficits?
• Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.)
• What does the fall in price of oil mean for the Gulf?
• Saudi budget, Hariri returns, Oman gets financing
• Gulf to lean more on debt markets amid low oil prices
• NCB-Samba merger, Oman VAT, OPEC+ deal
• Egypt: lower inflation target would temper rate cuts
• Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt
• Dubai’s debts still a major cause for concern
• Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
• Saudi austerity, Arabtec liquidation, Lebanese politics
• Kuwait’s new Emir faces tough challenges
• CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing
• Oil price fall and Gulf fiscal strains, tourism reopening
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Egyptian inflation to stay below target
• Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.)
• Deflation in the Gulf to persist
• Lebanon’s crisis continues to worsen, Tunisian politics
• Assessing the state of coronavirus in MENA
• Egypt’s external strains easing, but pound to weaken
• Latest on the Beirut blast, oil price rise
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.)
• Dubai GREs, Hezbollah-Israel conflict, peak oil demand
• Gulf rulers’ health, Dubai property downturn
• Tunisia’s political crisis, Kuwait debt, GERD, OPEC+
• Diriyah Gate, UAE banks, migrant workers in the Gulf
• Sovereign debt risks growing in Tunisia
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.)
• Dubai GDP, tourism, Egypt & the IMF, Lebanon’s crisis
• UAE banks, Kuwait’s savings, Egyptian cafés
• Banks to weather the storm, but pockets of risk linger
• Egypt and the IMF, OPEC+ extension, Saudi case surge
• Egypt Consumer Prices (May)
• Remittance slump adds to economic headwinds
• Whole Economy PMIs (May)
• Lebanon heads to the IMF, but risks still abound
• Is Dubai facing another debt crisis?
• Oil output cuts mean Gulf slump to be even deeper
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.)
• Coronavirus latest, IMF deals, Egyptian pound
• Tourism slump to hit parts of the region hard
• Dubai the most vulnerable to coronavirus outbreak
• Oil price collapse, coronavirus response
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.)
• Lebanon: how might a debt restructuring play out?
• Coronavirus policy response, Lebanon’s debt decision
• Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.)
• Currency adjustments lie in store in a few economies
• Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor
• Moroccan car sector to drive recovery this year
• Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.)
• What’s behind the weakness in the Gulf?
• Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.)
• Tight fiscal policy in the Gulf, Saudi labour market
• Aramco IPO, Saudi growth, Algeria’s election
• Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.)
• Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery
• Lebanon crisis, OPEC+ meeting, Aramco IPO
• Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.)
• Qatar’s banking risks re-emerging
• How credible are the region’s dollar pegs?
• Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.)
• Lebanon’s turmoil, Dubai’s property woes, Aramco IPO
• Saudi economic downturn deepens
• Kuwait’s weak economic performance to continue
• Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis
• Tunisian election, pressure builds in Egypt for stimulus
• Gulf recession fears, Lebanese pound under pressure
• Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.)
• Dubai’s economic struggles to continue
• Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• Qatar: close to a turning point, but growth to disappoint
• Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.)
• Sovereign debt in the spotlight
• Frontier financial markets underperform
• Balance sheet fears escalate in frontier markets
• How often do EM central banks respond to currency falls?
• EM currency vulnerabilities shifting
• EM inflation at post-financial crisis low
• Sovereign debt risks building