Global Economics

Gareth Leather is a Senior Economist in the Emerging Asia team at Capital Economics. Gareth joined Capital Economics in July 2011. Gareth has been covering Asian economies for over 10 years, and prior to joining Capital Economics, he worked for five years at the Economist Intelligence Unit as a Senior Economist.

Gareth holds an economics undergraduate degree from Warwick University, and a masters degree in Asian Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies.

Articles published by Gareth Leather

• Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change
• Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates
• New rate forecasts following hawkish BSP comments
• Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes
• Taiwan: tightening cycle to be gradual
• Korea: assessing the impact of the truckers strike
• BSP and BoT to go slow on rate hikes
• Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount
• Thailand: rates set to rise, but tightening to be gradual
• BoT to stay on the sidelines, Korea inflation concerns
• Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May)
• Dovish Bank Indonesia in no hurry to raise rates
• Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far
• Asia to remain inflation outlier
• Thailand GDP (Q1)
• What next for the recovery? Politics takes centre stage
• Indonesia GDP (Q1)
• BSP to tighten gradually, Philippines election
• Indonesia palm oil ban
• Taiwan GDP (Q1, provisional)
• Signs of exports softening, new governor at the BoK
• Bank Indonesia to tighten gradually
• What next for Pakistan and Sri Lanka?
• Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis
• Sri Lanka suspends debt payments, pushes for IMF deal
• Pakistan: major challenges await new PM
• Thailand: rates to stay low despite inflation worries
• Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge
• Vietnam GDP (Q1)
• More dovish signals from South East Asia
• Strong Asian export data, but will it last?
• Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken
• Taiwan hikes rates, but further tightening to be gradual
• Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually
• New GDP growth forecasts
• Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election
• Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts
• Taiwan export orders unlikely to keep rising rapidly
• Thailand GDP (Q4)
• Ukraine adds to inflation risks, SE Asia reopening
• Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually
• Thailand: rates to stay low despite jump in inflation
• Inflation a worry in South Asia, but less so elsewhere
• Indonesia GDP (Q4)
• Encouraging developments in the Philippines
• Korea’s COVID shift, Q1 Outlooks
• Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery
• Taiwan GDP (Q4, provisional)
• Indonesia: hiking cycle to be gradual
• What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022
• A guide to political events in 2022
• What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia
• Bank of Thailand to keep interest rates low
• Asia will not follow the Fed
• Taiwan: rates to stay low despite rising inflation
• Bank Indonesia in no rush to raise interest rates
• Philippines: BSP to leave rates low to support recovery
• Taiwan in no rush to raise interest rates
• Rates in the Philippines to stay low on falling inflation
• Bank of Korea facing a policy dilemma
• Inflation exacerbates economic crisis in Sri Lanka
• How big a threat is Omicron to Asia?
• South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger
• Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders
• Recent rate hikes not the start of a trend
• Why is inflation different in Asia?
• Export orders dip, but shortages will persist
• Vaccine progress, external turnaround in Indonesia
• Bank Indonesia is in no rush to tighten
• Thailand GDP (Q3)
• Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten
• The end of king coal, Korea inflation worries
• Indonesia GDP (Q3)
• Taiwan GDP (Q3, provisional)
• Mixed Korea activity data, climate change
• Strength of export orders signals shortages will persist
• Bank Indonesia will be in no rush to tighten next year
• Asia reopens, more hikes in Korea & Sri Lanka
• Time to worry about inflation?
• Vietnam: Is the worst over?
• PacMan joins the race, baht set for further falls
• Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates
• Thailand: rates to stay low for an extended period
• Vietnam GDP (Q3)
• Rate cut in Thailand, Taiwan applies to join CPTPP
• Supply shortages to persist
• Taiwan central bank in little rush to tighten policy
• External strains unlikely to ease as tourism slump drags on
• Bank Indonesia will be in no rush to tighten
• Pakistan: further rate hikes likely
• Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy
• Encouraging signs in South East Asia
• Singapore struggling to live with COVID
• Exports won’t come to the rescue in H2
• Shortages to remain a drag on global manufacturing
• Indonesia: rates set for prolonged hold
• Korea: the next 30 years
• Thailand GDP (Q2)
• Baht to weaken further as external deficit widens
• Indonesia GDP (Q2)
• Bank of Thailand to lower rates further
• Singapore: moving beyond zero-COVID
• Vietnam-US tensions ease, new GDP forecasts
• Indonesia: further rate cuts unlikely despite virus surge
• Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens
• South East Asia becomes virus epicentre
• Thailand’s reopening, exports soften
• Virus disruption to continue
• Vietnam GDP (Q2)
• Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022
• Global demand peaking but shortages to stay
• Taiwan: no rush to hike rates despite booming economy
• Indonesia: policy to remain on hold for some time
• Encouraging signs in Thailand
• Oil prices and inflation, fiscal support in Taiwan
• Locking down
• Indonesia: rates to remain low for some time to come
• Exports continuing to boom as Asia shuts down
• Learning to live with lockdowns
• Thailand GDP (Q1)
• Singapore lockdown, improvement in Korea
• Forecast cut in Thailand, spill-overs from India
• Thailand to leave rates at 0.5% for some time to come
• Indonesia GDP (Q1)
• Weak consumption holding back recovery in Korea
• Taiwan GDP (Q1, provisional)
• Thailand: from bad to worse
• Travel troubles, virus surge prompts forecast cuts
• No room for further rate cuts in Indonesia
• Taiwan under pressure over currency practices
• What to expect from Vietnam’s new leadership
• Korea: time to worry about rising property prices?
• Strong Q1 for Korea, tourism reopening plans
• Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates
• Vietnam GDP (Q1)
• Singapore loosens restrictions, new markets forecasts
• Thailand: rates to remain at 0.5% for foreseeable future
• What would a global return to normality mean for Asia?
• Taiwan: no rush to hike rates despite rapid recovery
• Indonesia: little prospect of rate hikes
• Philippines outlook worsens, Taiwan in the dock
• Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus, Philippines inflation
• Improving outlook in Pakistan prompts forecast upgrade
• Financial market sell-off, impact of Biden stimulus
• Time to worry about a repeat of the “taper tantrum”?
• Indonesia: current account shift reduces external risks
• Is the slow vaccine rollout a cause for concern?
• The Asian century, little to fear from higher oil prices
• Bank Indonesia to cut rates once more this year
• Thailand GDP (Q4)
• Thai recovery facing headwinds
• Malaysia restrictions extended, new equity forecasts
• Indonesia GDP (Q4)
• Bank of Thailand to keep rates low for a long time
• Myanmar: the economic consequences of the coup
• Korea recovery, new virus threats
• Taiwan GDP (Q4, provisional)
• Further rate cuts likely despite rising inflation
• Indonesia reforms, Vietnam leadership transition
• Bank Indonesia easing cycle not over
• A guide to political events in 2021
• Indonesia’s vaccine strategy, rate cut likely in Malaysia
• Rapid growth in Vietnam, vaccine rollout begins
• Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth
• Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth
• Thailand: rates to remain low throughout next year
• New outbreaks pose downside risks to 2021 forecasts
• Fiscal policy in Sri Lanka, currency trouble in Thailand
• Taiwan: central bank to keep rates on hold next year
• What next for interest rates in Indonesia?
• US takes aim at Vietnam
• What to expect in 2021 and how we differ from consensus
• Taiwan: central bank in little rush to raise rates
• New forecasts on positive vaccine developments
• Rate-cutting cycle not over yet
• Thailand: is an appreciating baht a threat to the recovery?
• Property prices in Korea, Indonesia current account
• Vaccine impact, Korea’s third wave, climate change
• The winners and losers from climate change
• The winners and losers from climate change
• Indonesia: easing cycle not over yet
• Thailand: rates to remain low for a long time to come
• Thailand GDP (Q3)
• Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA
• Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA
• Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA
• BSP under pressure to cut, vaccine boost to equities
• The benefits to Asia of a COVID-19 vaccine
• Deglobalisation to continue despite Biden victory
• Indonesia GDP (Q3)
• Taiwan GDP (Q3)
• Export outperformance lifts Asian growth
• A vaccine would not transform the region’s prospects
• Economies in need of continued policy support
• Problems mount in Malaysia
• Thai protests a key risk to the recovery
• Bigger external surpluses put Asia under US spotlight
• Further rate cuts likely in Indonesia
• Vietnam in US cross hairs
• Indonesia: reform package boosts long-term prospects
• Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut
• Encouraging signs in Korea
• Vietnam GDP (Q3)
• Taiwan and Vietnam: outperformance continues
• Too soon to call an end to Asia’s easing cycle
• Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged
• Pakistan: end of the easing cycle
• Indonesia: monetary policy outlook depends on rupiah
• Taiwan policy rate set for an extended hold
• Second wave fears ease as infections fall
• Thailand: Slow recovery despite virus success
• Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA
• Is Bank Indonesia’s independence under threat?
• Vietnam activity rebounding after latest virus scare
• Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries
• Malaysia bouncing back, Philippines vaccine hope
• Tracking Asia’s recovery
• Singapore rebound, Philippines cases surge
• Sri Lanka: what does election mean for the economy?
• What next for the Bank of Thailand?
• Indonesia GDP (Q2)
• Taiwan GDP (Q2)
• New outbreak in Vietnam, Sri Lanka’s election
• A mixed second quarter
• Rupiah worries resurface, Korea’s “modest” slowdown
• Korea on the mend, consensus comparison
• Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates further
• Auto slowdown in Thailand, Singapore bouncing back
• Auto sector holding back Korea’s recovery
• Vietnam GDP (Q2)
• Taiwan resilience, Korea consumers regain confidence
• What will the Bank of Thailand do next?
• Export bright spots
• Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume
• Bank Indonesia to ease further
• Tracking the recovery
• How quickly will tourism recover?
• Taiwan: raising our GDP forecasts on stronger exports
• Which countries will rebound fastest?
• Philippines: collapse in April, recovery to lag
• Raising our GDP forecast for Vietnam
• How bad is the outlook for exports?
• Bumps in Korea’s recovery, how to interpret the PMIs
• Some signs of recovery as lockdowns are eased
• Inflation to stay low for a long time
• BoK to launch QE, labour market woes in Taiwan
• How bad is the outlook for Indonesia?
• What next for the Bank of Thailand?
• Indonesia: rates left on hold, but more cuts coming
• Emerging Asia to recover faster than elsewhere
• Thailand GDP (Q1)
• Pakistan cuts rates again, further loosening to come
• Tourism slump in Thailand, Korea’s “second wave”
• Vietnam cuts interest rates again, further easing is likely
• Philippines: lockdown extension to delay recovery
• Economic slump unlikely to trigger financial crisis
• Indonesia GDP (Q1)
• Time to worry about the rise in government debt?
• Taiwan GDP (Q1)
• South Asia and Indonesia are a big worry
• Singapore lockdown extension, deflation arrives
• Vietnam: what impact will easing the shutdown have?
• What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia?
• Taiwan headed for recession despite containment success
• What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia?
• What will the recovery look like?
• Elections in Korea, further easing in Pakistan
• Majority will boost Moon’s ability to enact reforms
• Massive recession underway, difficult recovery ahead
• Indonesia to resume easing cycle if rupiah holds up
• Lifeline for Bank Indonesia, more stimulus on the way
• Singapore shutdown, new forecasts, Korea elections
• Counting the cost of shutdowns across Asia
• How far will inflation fall?
• Vietnam Q1 slowdown, Malaysia on “war footing”
• Singapore: massive fiscal stimulus won’t prevent slump
• Policy support being stepped up
• Slump in rupiah may prompt more aggressive action
• Emergency rate cut in Thailand, sharp downturn looms
• Currencies under pressure, virus spreads in S E Asia
• Bank Indonesia will need to keep one eye on the rupiah
• Taiwan cuts rates, more easing likely
• How bad will it get?
• Pakistan slashes rates, further loosening to come
• Philippines capital city on “lockdown” over virus fears, rate cuts more likely
• New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads
• What do falling oil prices mean for Emerging Asia?
• Assessing the impact so far
• Political crisis bad news for Malaysia’s economy
• The fiscal response, political worries in Thailand
• Indonesia: prolonged easing cycle unlikely
• Thailand GDP (Q4)
• Singapore virus response, Cambodia on the ropes
• How big will the disruption be to Asian supply chains?
• Korea to join regional rate-cutting cycle
• New GDP growth forecasts, further rate cuts likely
• Bank of Thailand to ease further
• How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia?
• China factory closures now disrupting Asian industry
• Vietnam inflation rises, Thai baht falls
• Coronavirus to prompt further rate cuts
• Tourism to drag regional growth lower as virus spreads
• Coronavirus to hit tourism
• Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but hints at further cuts
• Indonesia: reform package key test for Jokowi
• Assessing the impact of the new flu virus in Asia
• Taiwan GDP (Q4)
• Rupiah strength, palm oil worries
• US-China trade deal, and its impact on the rest of Asia
• Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond
• Taiwan election, Thailand’s currency dilemma
• Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam
• Singapore: initial GDP estimate provides little value
• Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.)
• Indonesia easing cycle not over yet
• What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus
• Thailand: rates on hold, but further easing next year
• Hong Kong’s troubles benefitting Singapore
• Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce
• Trade war disruption, peace hopes grow in Mindanao
• Korea failing to address its demographic “time bomb”
• VAT cut in Sri Lanka, Japan-Korea trade spat
• More stimulus on the way in Thailand
• Is a crisis brewing in Taiwan?
• Recent positive data, Vietnam raises the retirement age
• Indonesia: Further easing likely
• Pakistan: Current account improves as inflation rises
• More to coming export rebound than meets the eye
• Thailand GDP (Q3)
• Duterte health worries, Sri Lanka election
• Low inflation will continue to worry central banks
• What to expect from Sri Lanka after the election
• Why we don’t trust Indonesia’s GDP data
• Bank of Thailand cuts rates, more easing likely
• Indonesia GDP (Q3)
• New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes
• How big would the benefits be from RCEP?
• Taiwan GDP (Q3)
• Sri Lanka goes to the polls
• Taiwan outperforming, RRR cuts in the Philippines
• Protectionist threat from US unlikely to go away
• Indonesia: approaching the end of the easing cycle
• Would QE work in Korea?
• The worst is now over
• Stimulus in Korea, Jokowi’s second term, IMF forecasts
• What to expect from Jokowi 2.0?
• Baht set to remain strong, fiscal tightening in Malaysia
• Growth stable in Q3, Malaysia’s 2020 budget
• Korea Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Vietnam: protectionism key risk to growth outlook
• Weak Singapore data, loosening in the Philippines
• Thailand: rates on hold, but cut likely before year-end
• Fiscal policy being loosened, Indonesia an exception
• Indonesia corruption concerns, new Pakistan forecasts
• Taiwan will not join Asia’s rate cutting cycle
• Sri Lanka’s GDP figures overstating health of economy
• Indonesia: Further rate cuts likely
• Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run
• Vietnam: surprise cut, but further easing unlikely
• Strong baht, more RCEP delays
• Deflation in Korea, rate cut likely in the Philippines
• Political risk back on the agenda
• Fiscal caution in the Philippines and Indonesia
• The worst is now over, but growth to remain weak
• Thailand GDP (Q2)
• Global recession fears, Indonesia to move capital city
• The Great Asian Moderation
• New currency forecasts, trade war escalates, rate cuts
• Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir?
• Surprise rate cut in Thailand, more loosening to follow
• What does the fall in the renminbi mean for Asia?
• Indonesia GDP (Q2)
• Mixed Q2 GDP figures, China tourism clampdown
• Taiwan GDP (Q2)
• MAS to loosen soon, Malaysia restarts rail project
• Malaysia: rebound in inflation nothing to worry about
• Korea minimum wage U-turn, who will cut rates next?
• Bank of Korea signals further rate cuts ahead
• What will the second quarter growth figures show?
• Pakistan: further rate hikes needed to combat inflation
• Thailand: worries about a strong baht grow
• Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced)
• Malaysia: rates left unchanged but further easing likely
• Korea-Japan spat, Vietnam in the spotlight again
• Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems?
• Winners and losers from the trade war
• Thailand to leave rates unchanged this year
• Assessing the impact of a war in Korea