Global Economics

Ben joined the Singapore office in 2018 as an Economist for Australia and New Zealand. Prior to joining Ben worked at the New Zealand Treasury providing macroeconomic and fiscal advice to ministers, and preparing economic forecasts. Ben holds a bachelor of commerce with honours from Victoria University of Wellington.

Articles published by Ben Udy

• Housing downturn will lead to RBNZ rate cuts in 2023
• Australia – Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021)
• We still expect the RBA to end QE in February
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)
• Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long
• RBA to end asset purchases in February
• New Zealand GDP (Q3 2021)
• Diverging outlook for monetary policy
• RBNZ will hike rates to 2.0% next year
• Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen
• RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle
• Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)
• Inflation will keep the RBA under pressure
• Australia Labour Market (Oct.)
• RBNZ set to hike by 50bp, RBA remains the archdove
• New Zealand- Labour Market (Q3 2021)
• Surging inflation puts pressure on monetary policy
• Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2021)
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2021)
• Market pricing on RBA too aggressive
• New Zealand- Consumer Prices (Q3)
• Plans to double migration sound good in theory
• RBNZ to continue hiking rates as restrictions ease
• Australia International Trade (Aug. 2021)
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)
• Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices
• RBNZ finally set to hike rates
• RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023
• New Zealand GDP (Q2 2021)
• Reopening imminent but won’t start with a bang
• RBNZ to press ahead with tightening
• Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening
• Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021)
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)
• Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up
• Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021)
• Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet
• Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2)
• RBNZ may delay hiking until May
• RBNZ to delay tightening until next year
• Australia Labour Market (Jul.)
• RBNZ ready to lift rates when restrictions ease
• Vaccine roll-out accelerating as activity stalls
• RBNZ set to hike rates by 50 basis points
• RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks
• Australia- Retail Sales (Jun./Q2 2021)
• New Zealand- Labour Market (Q2 2021)
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
• Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months
• RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges
• New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2)
• RBNZ tightening creeping closer
• Australia: Retail Sales (May 2021)
• Labour shortages to persist
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
• Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints
• New Zealand – Lasting decline in saving rate would be an upside risk
• RBA policy tightening getting closer
• New Zealand – House prices to fall in 2022
• Australia Labour Market (May)
• New Zealand GDP (Q1 2021)
• Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier
• Lockdowns and bond yields ease
• International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.)
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May)
• Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer
• Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes
• Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1)
• Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia
• Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook
• Australia Wage Price Index (Q1)
• Australia – Budget to extend tax relief
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q1)
• Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now
• Economic recovery facilitates house price surge
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q1)
• Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar
• RBNZ will hike rates in 2022
• Travel bubble & vaccine rollout
• Subdued data won’t faze the Bank
• Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June
• Booming housing & labour markets
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)
• Australia – International Trade & Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Recent data not enough for the RBA to shift course
• Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ
• Impact of a travel bubble would be small
• Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten
• Australia Labour Market (Feb.)
• New Zealand GDP (Q4 2020)
• Australia – Lending standards remain sound
• Australia – Lowe lifts bar for policy tightening further
• Australia – International Trade (Jan.)
• Australia GDP (Q4)
• Wage growth near its trough
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)
• RBNZ’s housing focus could bring forward rate hikes
• Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4)
• Pessimistic RBNZ set to be surprised
• Economy increasingly shrugging off lockdowns
• Bank to continue unwinding stimulus
• New Zealand’s house prices will keep rising strongly
• Australia – Inflation to be stable despite stronger exchange rate
• Monetary policy outlook diverging
• Retail Sales (Dec./Q4)
• New Zealand Labour Market (Q4. 2020)
• Strong labour markets point to tighter policy
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.)
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2020)
• RBNZ to hike rates next year
• New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4)
• Australia – Labour Market (Dec.)
• Earlier vaccine rollout as fresh lockdowns proliferate
• Australia – International Trade (Nov.)
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)
• Additional savings could provide fuel for the rebound
• Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports
• New Zealand GDP (Q3)
• Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ
• Australian banks unlikely to falter
• Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect
• Australia – Retail Sales (Oct.)
• Australia – International Trade (Oct.)
• Australia GDP (Q3)
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)
• New Zealand – Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely
• Labour markets prove resilient
• Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing
• Australia – Private Capex Survey (Q3)
• Labour market to tighten, trade tensions to persist
• Australia Labour Market (Oct.)
• Australia – Wage Price Index (Q3)
• RBNZ still likely to implement negative rates
• China threat to trade is growing
• Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates
• International Trade (Sep.)
• New Zealand Labour Market (Q3)
• On the road to recovery
• Australia – Consumer Prices (Q3)
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q3)
• More QE on the horizon
• Labour Market (Sep.)
• Fiscal stimulus now, monetary stimulus in November
• Australia – International Trade (Aug)
• Chinese demand for iron ore supporting recovery
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)
• Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared
• RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October
• New Zealand – RBNZ setting the stage for negative rates
• Labour market looking up
• RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates
• Indefinite lockdown will hamper rebound
• New Zealand – Lower spending by National would be a drag
• Economy may have kept growing in Q3
• Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective
• Risk to overall trade from China is limited
• Unemployment to rise in both countries
• Australia – Labour Market (Jul.)
• New Zealand – RBNZ is not done loosening yet
• Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown
• RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q2)
• Australia – Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2)
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
• Diverging virus success results in diverging activity
• Australia – Consumer Prices (Q2)
• Budget update to reveal severe deterioration
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q2)
• Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact
• Renewed outbreaks will slow recovery in activity
• Australia – International Trade (May)
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
• Economies coming roaring back
• NZ activity back to normal, but labour market is not
• New Zealand – RBNZ to go negative in 2021
• Australian economy bouncing back strongly
• Holding off on negative rates until 2021
• New Zealand – GDP (Q1)
• Australia-China trade tensions unlikely to boil over
• Lifting lockdowns spurs confidence
• Australia – Inflation set to fall sharply
• Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending
• Australia – GDP (Q1)
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (May)
• Normal still a long way off
• Australia – Private Capex Survey (Q1)
• Recovery will be gradual and bumpy
• Australia – Investors won’t save the housing market
• New Zealand – Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate
• New Zealand – Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long
• International Trade (Mar.)
• Negative rates on the horizon
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q1)
• Easing lockdowns will boost growth
• Panic buying and job losses
• New Zealand – House prices may fall sharply in the coming years
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q1)
• Unemployment rate will rise sharply
• Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal
• Australia – International Trade (Feb.)
• Australian States taking different approaches
• Australia – Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Coronavirus restrictions to weigh on growth
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)
• Locking down
• New Zealand – RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower
• Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook
• Australia – Second stimulus will focus on damage control
• Australia – Labour Market (Feb.)
• New Zealand – GDP (Q4)
• New Zealand – Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed
• Lower oil prices are not great for Australians
• New Zealand – Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates
• Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long
• Australia – Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming
• Australia – International Trade (Jan.)
• Australia – GDP (Q4)
• Surge in non-mining investment unlikely
• Australia – Private Capex Survey (Q4)
• Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow
• Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall
• Australia – Labour Market (Jan.)
• Extended travel ban threatens education exports
• New Zealand – Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ
• New Zealand – The RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over
• RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia
• Australia – Coronavirus counter-measures to cause GDP to fall
• Australia – Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.)
• RBNZ should remain on hold despite coronavirus
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q4)
• Australia – RBA will have to cut rates this year
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.)
• Bushfires & coronavirus to hit travel exports
• Housing inflation won’t be enough to hit RBA target
• Australia – Consumer Prices (Q4)
• RBA’s wiggle room won’t last
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q4)
• US-China trade deal headwind to export growth
• Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft
• Australia – International Trade (Nov.)
• Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020
• New Zealand – GDP (Q3)
• New Zealand – Stable financial system allows RBNZ to cut rates
• CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)
• Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough
• Private Capex Survey (Q3)
• RBA should reach the rate floor & begin QE in 2020
• Government flipflops on fiscal stimulus
• QE will result in lower bond yields in Australia
• Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment
• Labour market will remain RBA’s headache
• Labour Market (Oct.)
• New Zealand – RBNZ to cut rates to 0.5% in 2020
• GDP growth isn’t picking up
• New Zealand – RBNZ will cut further, but not until next year
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q3)
• What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis?
• CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)
• IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand
• Consumer Prices (Q3)
• Lack of fiscal stimulus will force the RBA’s hand
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q3)
• Not confident either economy will improve
• New Zealand – RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect
• Retail Sales (Aug.)
• International Trade (Aug.)
• CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)
• Not living up to their potential
• Falling global rates put pressure on central banks
• New Zealand – RBNZ to cut rates further
• Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own
• RBNZ will cut further…just not yet
• Labour Market (Aug.)
• New Zealand – GDP (Q2)
• The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish
• International Trade (Jul.)
• Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2)
• Australian dollar has further to fall
• CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)
• Current account surplus won’t last long
• The money supply is not what it used to be
• The sky isn’t falling
• Don’t worry, there’s still more “in the tin”
• New Zealand – 50 basis point cut not the end of easing by the RBNZ
• International Trade (Jun.)
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q2)
• Bond yields crashing to new lows
• Retail Sales (Jun./ Q2)
• Interest rates will be cut twice more this year
• CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
• RBA to take a breather before cutting rates further
• Consumer Prices (Q2)
• Falling profitability to weigh on investment
• Treasurer unlikely to shift the goal posts
• New Zealand – Capital requirement concerns are overblown
• Outlook for gas sector challenging
• Labour Market (Jun.)
• International Trade (May)
• Dovish central banks set to cut rates further
• CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)
• We now expect one extra cut by the RBA & RBNZ
• New Zealand – RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0%
• RBA thinks about China slowdown & QE
• New Zealand – RBNZ will wait and see
• New Zealand – GDP (Q1)
• Banks still likely to pass on rate cut in full
• GDP (Q1)
• New Zealand – Labour Market (Q4)
• RBA will cut rates in 2019 as reality bites
• Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.)