Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

US Employment Report Preview

Monthly assessments making use of our econometrically estimated model of payrolls to discuss the key issues ahead of the US employment report.

Sample - Better economy starts to help young workers

Browse articles

Articles
Payrolls to rise back to underlying trendNot another 2010 or 2011Unemployment rate will decline more graduallyLabour market conditions still improvingBenchmark revision adds to the uncertaintyMomentum unlikely to be maintained throughout 2012Better economy starts to help young workersDon't blame small firmsBusinesses reluctant to boost headcountsBraced for an outright fall in payrolls
Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdownSlowdown sustainedA temporary slowdownLimited progressConditions gradually improvingPayrolls to rebound as weather effects are reversedHas the rebound in payrolls been even weaker?Don't trust the initial jobless claims figuresCompanies still reluctant to boost hiringStruggling to find a higher gear (Oct 10)
Wage deflation still a threatPublic sector won't offset weakness in private jobs growthIt's time jobless claims were firedPrivate sector jobs growth gets back on trackA census hiring bonanzaA payroll reality checkA turning point for the labour market?Payroll figures another victim of the winter weatherBenchmark revision to reveal sharper falls in employmentNet gains in employment probably still a few months away
Wage growth yet to reach a troughHeading for a "job-loss" recovery?Back to school quirks pose upside riskDrop in payrolls due to less hiring, not more firingLabour market improving more slowly than rest of economyBirth/death model not a big conGlacial improvement in labour market conditionsLabour market lagging behind againFew, if any, signs that labour market is improvingLabour market conditions still worsening
Revisions could show job market even weaker than thoughtMore grim news aheadPayrolls to post biggest monthly decline in 26 yearsUnemployment rate to climb even higherWhere have all the new job seekers come from?Unemployment rate set to climb even higherLabour market conditions still deterioratingUnemployment rate to reach 6% by year-endPayrolls in limbo, but unemployment set to soarLabour market weakness now widespread
Recession inevitably means severe job losses lie aheadThe birth/death model: good in theory, bad in practiceLabour market appears to have bounced back in JanuaryLabour market conditions have worsened considerablyLabour market won't escape impact of a slowing economyLabour market really is sinkingUnemployment rate set to riseFinancial turmoil adds to job market woesRisk Of Upside Surprise In July's Payrolls.Labour market gradually losing steam
Drop in jobless claims suggests labour market remains robustLabour market may be cooling offUnemployment rate likely to reboundOur new model suggests pick up in February payrollsRevisions add to uncertaintyStability of aggregate job growth hides contrasting fortunesEmployment gains to slow as GDP disappointsFirms keeping existing workers, but wary of hiring new staffPayroll gains less volatile as well as more modest.The uncomfortable truth about employment & the housing boom
Firms more cautious about hiring new workersWeaker job creation reflects wider slowdown in growthEvidence still points to below consensus payroll gainUpside risk to April payrollsMarket expectations of payrolls heavily influenced by claimsLabour market maintaining momentumJob growth accelerating; revisions to lower employmentJob growth expected to moderate in 2006 and beyondPayrolls growth to rebound in NovemberLabour force growth should keep wage inflation low
It’s time to play pin the tail on the payrolls donkeyIs the rise of health care jobs smoothing the employment cycle?Markets missing bad news by focusing only on jobless claimsRebound in payrolls growth expected in JuneAre payrolls becoming more predictable?End of the housing boom would be a real threat to payrollsLabour market takes one step back after two steps forwardLabour market springs back to lifeFed faces dilemma over labour market dataAfter October’s blast-off, back to Earth in November
Scope for a big disappointment in payrolls this monthDespite July’s dip, underlying trend is still around 150,000Market may be betting on the wrong horseTwo big steps forward - now one step back?Potential for another pleasant surprise in April PayrollsLabour market takes one step back after two steps forward