Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

US Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - What to watch in 2012

Browse articles

Articles
US economy should shrug off Greek exitFalling gasoline prices to support the recoveryDemand for credit strengtheningFed no nearer QE3...or higher ratesResilience of consumption growth may not lastThe hidden fiscal boostRecovery remains solidNo need to fret about higher Treasury yieldsDo rising equity prices offset higher gas prices?Current account deficit no concern
Fed still looking at ways to add to the policy mixBanking sector getting strongerRise in oil price not big enough to pose a threatMind the output gap trapParticipation rate will keep on fallingFederal debt burden set to keep on climbingFed may still unleash QE3 soonIndustrial revival won’t lastUS economic outlook remains modest at bestFed taking further steps into policy unknown
What to watch in 2012Is the saving rate higher than it looks?Slow deleveraging continuesFed to the rescue?Would US banks survive a euro collapseFew market consequences if the super committee failsDisturbing decline in demand for loansCan the Fed help revive housing?Faster GDP growth won't be sustainedFed's monetary policy framework under the spotlight
Trade protection policies becoming more appealingIs the US headed for recession?Is structural unemployment a problem?Businesses are cash rich, but reluctant to investRebound in core inflation makes Fed's life difficultPolicymakers lay out the case for more actionFed increasingly likely to launch Operation TwistHalfway through a lost decadeDeficit in demand to hinder economy for yearsFed may yet need more policy tricks
Recession risks risingDowngrade, default or both?Pick-up in GDP growth no thanks to consumersHow exposed is the US to European debt defaults?Debt ceiling impasse drags onUS external position not such a big risk to the dollarConsumers still facing a number of headwindsMisery index hits 28-year highEnd of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higherSecond quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first
Twin threats to banks' incomeUS spends an unhealthy amount on health careWhat's driven the rebound in exports?Treasury getting perilously close to debt ceilingFed still too hopeful on growthUS credit status will remain under threatGDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarterFed still a long way from raising ratesWhat will the end of QE2 mean for the markets?First-quarter growth flagging
Fed won't be swayed by higher inflationDebt limit spat has unleashed QE3 by stealthWhat does $100pb oil mean for the US?Could we see a US rate hike this year?A consumption stormUnemployment rate lowered by labour force exodusHigher food prices eat into payroll tax cutFiscal outlook continues to deteriorateEconomy still years from recovering "lost" outputAre small businesses missing the recovery?
Is consumption still as sensitive to house prices?Downside risks stem mainly from crippling debtHow far will the fiscal stimulus boost growth?Businesses to the rescue?Consumers to the rescue?US banks’ exposure to Europe has fallenDeflation still the real dangerFed criticism over the top but not all unfoundedQE2 will not lead to runaway inflationFed ready to roll the dice again
Manufacturing: From leader to laggard?What could the foreclosure crisis mean?No mortgage rate miracleFed edging towards more QEDeleveraging by defaultEconomy edges further away from another recessionFiscal policy paralysed by bipartisan disagreementResidential loan losses may return to haunt banksDouble dip deja vuImports choking the recovery
Fed effectively targeting the money supplyBusiness leading what recovery there isConsumer cautionLabour market not doing quite as badly as fearedWhat could the Fed do?Double dips are reassuringly rareShould we be worried about a double-dip recession?China will need to do more to satisfy CongressSmall business recovery stronger than it looksUS debt deleveraging a slow process
Looking good for the second quarterUS banks have little exposure to PIGS debtHousing recovery will crumbleRecovery becoming self-sustainingNew hit to wealth will push saving rate higherWill the US catch eurofiscalerosis?Fed will not follow the Bank of CanadaIs the recovery reaching critical mass?Low inflation gives doves at the Fed the upper handIs the pick-up in consumption growth sustainable?
No bond market bloodbathWhat does the end of the Fed’s asset buying mean?A long slow deleveragingSmall firms struggling, but not just due to creditWhat is the Treasury up to?Improvement in trade gap with China may not lastBetting against the ISMFiscal outlook remains direDon't be fooled by the strength of Q4 GDPA new take on the Fed and the housing boom
Fed contemplates more not less stimulusFed getting out of the loan businessBecoming less leveraged, not moreCongress versus the FedThe plight of small businessesA black mark against Black Friday?Higher oil prices versus lower labour costsWhy are consumers still so glum?Fed unlikely to hike rates any time soonQ3 GDP should be a pleasant surprise
Commercial real estate loans won’t bring down banksThreat of wage deflation has not passedPace of house price recovery likely to slowInvesting in the recoveryHousehold deleveraging has only just begunOutlook beyond 2010 remains grimIs the manufacturing ISM overstating the recovery?Federal debt heading for 100% of GDPDeflation threat is mountingThe US is running a trade surplus...of sorts (17-Aug-09)
Recovery still expected to be lacklustreHousing appears to be stabilisingFed stands to make a tidy profitBernanke takes centre stageThe virtuous circle of income won’t lastThe slow and bumpy road to recoveryToo soon to sound the all clear on deflation.A heads up on the coming GDP revisionsHouseholds bailing out the governmentFinancial conditions edging back towards normal