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US Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - US banks batten down the European hatches

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Articles
Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable additionMonetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)Fed content to play waiting gameMonetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)Fed remains cautiousGDP growth now likely to reach 2% this yearMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)Euro crisis beginning to affect domestic creditFed's anticipates that rates are on hold until late 2014
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Monetary Indicators (Nov)2012 will be another year of sluggish growthFed stands pat for nowSuper committee failure not a disasterMonetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)US banks batten down the European hatchesFed in wait and see modeMonetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)Fed action will do little to boost economy
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)American Jobs Act is big but politically polarisingBernanke provides no clues on chances of QE3Expectations of QE3 appear prematureHow reliable is the Philly Fed index?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Fed's longer low rate pledge won't change muchLoss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disasterFinancial market moves could take 0.5% off GDP growthRevision to 2011 GDP forecast not due to debt ceiling deal
Default seemingly averted, but downgrade almost certainWhat if the US defaults?What if the US loses its AAA rating?Plenty of deficit reduction plans, but still no agreementMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Fed biding its timeMonetary Indicators Monitor (May)Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)Fed's survey shows diverging demand for loansFed in no hurry to tighten policy
Hard to argue with negative outlook on US AAA credit ratingBudget fight: Round 2Fed likely to complete QE2 as plannedMonetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)Budget fight could get nastyMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)Fed's survey shows big jump in demand for business loansFed biding its timeMonetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Fed sticks to its guns
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)Stimulus proposals could provide sizeable boost to growthRebound stallsMonetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)Fed's Survey shows no evidence of loan reboundBouncing along the bottomWill the G20 agree to current account targets?Fed's QE2 is no game changerMid-term elections point to gridlockMore dovish Bank of Canada may yet ease again (Oct 10)
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)Prices start to fall back (Oct 10)QE2 still looks distantMonetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)Home sales in freefallSurvey points to credit turnaroundMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Fed opts to reinvest maturing MBS proceedsYet to hit rock bottomBernanke offers no hint of further stimulus
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)Double-dip beginsFinancial reform bill won't prevent another crisisFed on hold until 2012Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)What would dollar/euro parity mean for the economy?Senior Loan Officer survey points to credit turnaroundFed on hold for some considerable timeMonetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
A saving grace for the Treasury marketDouble-dip in house prices may have already begunHealthcare bill a social, not economic, landmarkAre US-China relations at a tipping point?Fed no nearer to first rate hikeMonetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)TIC data reveal littleWarning: Statistical blizzard aheadBernanke defends Fed's actionsMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)
Bernanke lays out exit strategyFiscal and credit problems could weigh on growthFed holds steadyDemocrats taking a much tougher line on bank reformMonetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Bank tax is understandable, but could backfireFed offers no hint of a change in policyMonetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)End of Fed MBS purchases unlikely to derail housing recoveryBanks – the devil is in the detail
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)Fed survey suggests credit crunch fading fastExtended tax credit is a shot in the arm for housingFed in no rush to tighten policyMonetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)Fed acknowledges recoveryMonetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)Near-term burst in growth will not lastCapital Economics Recovery Index (Jul.)Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)
Fed's survey highlights poor demand for creditFed stands patCapital Economics Recovery Index (Jun.)Bernanke outlines exit strategyMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jun)Fed sticks to its gunsCapital Economics Recovery Index (May)Monetary Indicators Monitor (May).Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappointsUS recovery is coming but will be slow to gain impetus
Capital Economics Recovery Index (Apr.)How serious is the threat to AAA sovereign ratings?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.).Stress tests suggest (most) US banks are safeFed’s survey suggests credit crunch has easedFed stands pat amid signs recession easingHow much should we worry about swine flu?Only a 10% chance that the recession has endedMonetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)Toxic asset plan deserves cautious welcome
Fed gets serious; size of monetary base to soarMonetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)Fed goes for an inflation target, not Treasury purchasesObama's fiscal stimulus better than nothingFSP increases chance of decent recovery in 2010.Fed's survey suggests credit crunch has eased slightlyFed still thinking over Treasury purchasesMonetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Fiscal stimulus another step in the right directionFed cuts rates to near-zero
Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)Fed targets consumer borrowing costsNext President will face tough timesFed cuts rates and hints at more to comeMonetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)New forecasts for currencies and commoditiesBank capital injections won’t prevent recessionFed cuts rates as part of co-ordinated actionFed to buy up commercial paperRates to be cut to just 0.5% as economy stagnates