January's consumer price data are a mixed bag. Headline inflation fell to a ten-month low of 2.9%, from 3.0%, while core inflation edged up to a three-year high of 2.3%, from 2.2%. Favourable base effects will drive the headline rate even lower over the next few months, assuming that the recent spike in crude oil prices doesn't get any worse, but the decline in core inflation is likely to be much more gradual.