US Economics Update AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth The further gains in GDP in the ICT industries in the third quarter, despite another fall in employment, is a clear sign to us that AI is boosting productivity. While other factors help to explain the... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS challenges view that the jobs market has stabilised The large downside surprise in December job openings may concern Fed officials and suggest they were premature to remove language in last month’s policy statement emphasising elevated downside risks... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Warsh's QT wouldn't enable US rate cuts The idea that the Fed could pave the way for much lower policy rates by shrinking its balance sheet is unconvincing. Balance sheet reduction is a blunt tool for tightening financial conditions, and... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Warsh a relatively safe choice President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is a relatively safe choice for investors, with Warsh’s prior hawkish views counteracting concerns he might morph into a full-blown... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Larger tax refunds a windfall for households in H1 2026 Households’ annual tax refunds should be about $100bn larger this year, a windfall equivalent to 0.5% of annualised consumption. Although temporary, this boost gives us further reason to expect that... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to loosening bias despite stronger activity data The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is another sign that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Official population projections may not be low enough US population growth is expected to slow to only 0.2% y/y this year, matching the record low. Yet the risks to the official forecasts arguably lie to the downside, with a modest fall in the population... 28th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to slow down Trump The Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, but that won’t slow down the President, with Donald Trump continuing to pursue... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update SCOTUS rulings pivotal for Trump’s second year President Donald Trump’s first year back in the Oval Office was more disruptive than we had expected, marked by attacks on the global trading order, the domestic institutional framework and even the... 20th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about tensions over Greenland We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 19th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Latest threat to Fed independence likely to fail The Trump administration’s latest attempt to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues on the FOMC to cut interest rates will fail and there are several reasons to believe it could backfire. 12th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market remains in ‘low-hire, low-fire’ stable state The drop in the job openings and job hires rates reported in November’s JOLTS was accompanied by a decline in the layoff rate from already depressed levels, underscoring employers’ continued caution... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed softens blow of hawkish cut with asset purchase restart The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks influenced the accompanying policy statement, which notes that the FOMC will... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS teases an improving labour market The JOLTS data for September and October show glimpses of a rosier labour market, with firms in tariff-affected sectors posting more jobs and layoffs concentrated in a couple of sectors. This chimes... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Should we fear the 2026 “maturity wall”? The rise in the number of business bankruptcies this year, despite little change in default rates for bank loans or speculative-grade debt, seems to reflect the larger number of firms trying to re... 9th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals upside risks to inflation and employment The November NFIB survey suggests that the labour market is regaining momentum, while also pointing to some upside risks to inflation. At the margin at least, that lends some support to our view that... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
