Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Economics Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - The Chancellor’s hands are tied

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Articles
Could the Olympic flame reignite the recovery?Is household debt a problem?Will productivity growth ever recover?Budget 2012: Not rocking the boatBudget 2012 PreviewWhy is the UK lagging behind?How will UK property markets fare in 2012?What more can the policymakers do?Will falling inflation come to the rescue?Just how hard will the euro crisis hit the UK?
What should we expect from QE2?Autumn Statement 2011The Chancellor’s hands are tiedWill retail spending prove resilient again?Does the Government need a Plan B?Can consumers stand the pressure?Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis?Could the recovery cope with a rate rise?Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan ABudget 2011 Preview
Keeping an eye on the 2011 pay roundCan the resilience of corporate profits last?Is GDP higher than we think?Is the housing market heading for a double-dip?Will inflation ever fall back?Can the economy continue to recover?Housing downturn another blow for consumer spendingCan the spending cuts actually be achieved?Will tighter regulation prevent a recovery in lending?Is QE finally working?
Fiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spendingPolicy challenges for the new UK GovernmentEmergency Budget 2010: Tough but tenderEmergency Budget PreviewCan private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts?Indebtedness not a big problem for the corporate sectorCould we be wrong about inflation?UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debateBudget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitableBudget 2010 Preview - A holding operation
QE a year onAs many Eastern Europeans going as comingWill the UK catch up in the global recovery?How will the election influence economic policy?Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fallHow will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze?Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke?UK faces a decade of high unemploymentThe VAT threat to consumer spendingSpare capacity could yet turn inflation negative
From banking crisis to fiscal crisis?Could the UK have a creditless recovery?Bank lending still set to fall well shortRecent house price rises lack a firm foundationCan investment drive the recovery?How do we get out of this fiscal mess?The hardest part of QE is yet to comeHow will the policymakers respond to recovery?Why is UK retail spending so strong?Is the lower pound already helping?
Pay cuts intensify deflation dangerCan the UK make the most of the lower pound?Budget 2009 - The tip of the icebergWhich parts of consumer spending will recover first?Budget 2009 Preview - The great borrowing binge goes onJust how deep is this fiscal mess?Lending measures will not fill the holeWill the lower pound stave off deflation?Drag from stockbuilding to easeConsumer spending rebound unlikely to last
The pros and cons of bank nationalisationCan pay freezes prevent further job losses?The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930sWhat more can policymakers do?Much bolder action required to boost bank lendingHow to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessionsWill quantitative easing work?Life insurers better placed than the banksPre-Budget Report 2008Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump.
Pre-Budget Report 2008 – PreviewThe rebirth of deflationHow far will global house prices fall?The road to deflation?Durable consumer goods to be hit the hardestLower trend growth won’t stop inflation fallingDrop in bank lending to prompt economy to contract in 2009The shape of recessions pastDent to bank capital to restrict lending growthA double whammy for retail revenues
How will companies fare this time?House prices to fall by 35%Just how high could inflation get?Who will drive the spending slowdown?The outlook for household savingsHousing equity withdrawal to grind to a haltThe economic damage from the other property crashAre inflation expectations really so important?Consumer dangers just as great in the UKUK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best!
Caught between a Rock...How hard will the credit crisis hit the City?Just how bad could the public finances get?Unemployment to hit ten-year highHas manufacturing really reinvented itself?The final blow for consumers?How long will inflation worries linger?MPC may be too sanguine about housing againThe legacy of the house price boomMPC may need to let high street spending slump
Is the UK economy finally set to rebalance?Pre-Budget Report 2007UK Pre-Budget Report 2007UK Pre-Budget Report Preview - A pre-election splash?Is household saving really as low as it looks?Is private equity good for the economy?Resilient housing market could delay spending slowdown.What will 6% interest rates do to the economy?Is imported deflation at an end?UK inflation might not fall after all
Employment growth to pick up as profits recoverRecord low saving threatens spending outlookHas the wages threat passed?Pricing power - passing or permanent?Influx of migrants to widen current account deficitFirms better placed than consumers to withstand rate risesHave fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market?UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time?UK Budget 2007 - Robbing Peter to pay PeterFalling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises
Budget 2007 PreviewWhy should we worry if pay growth picks up?Who will a US slowdown hit hardest?Is Monetarism back from the dead?A timetable for the 2007 pay roundHow fast can the UK economy grow?Net migration has probably peakedUK spending's no fun anymoreUK Pre-Budget Report 2006What's your inflation rate?
UK Pre-Budget Report 2006 PreviewIs the current account about to get a whole lot worse?Europe won't rescue UK from the US slowdownSubdued income growth to limit spending recoveryThe impact of VAT import fraud on the public financesHow far can retailers widen their margins?Is UK plc investing enough?Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending?Saving for old age presents a long-term threat to spendingThe energy price threat to the UK economy