Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Economics Chart Book

Aims to give a monthly snapshot view of the economy in chart form.

Sample - Renewed credit crunch looms

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Articles
Back into recession in Q1A robust finish to Q1Rise in oil prices presents new threat to recoveryInflation squeeze starts to easeEconomic gloom lifts a bitRenewed credit crunch loomsOn course to contract in Q4Economy stagnating at bestDouble-dip risks growRecovery still struggling
Consumers bowing under the pressureNet trade boost unlikely to lastRecovery grinds to a haltStill few signs of rebalancingTwo speed recovery continuesSnow effects aside, the recovery looks lacklustreRecovery starts new year with strong momentumTentative signs of re-balancingRecovery still strong, but spending cuts loom (Nov 10)Recovery still slowing
Unbalanced recovery still looks fragileRecovery reaches its high-pointThe fiscal squeeze arrivesRise in inflation still likely to be only temporaryWeak backdrop to electionRecovery still looking sluggishMPC pauses – but not for longUK crawls out of recessionUK economy looking better-balancedInflation heading for 3%
UK one of the last to escape recessionAttention focuses on looming fiscal squeezeDeflation still a riskQE still failing to boost money growthRecession even deeper than thoughtMore green shootsThe worst is overPolicy moves into uncharted territoryEconomy still deep in recessionRecession to be as severe as the early 1980s
Economy to contract by 2.5% this yearPolicymakers step up a gearWorse than the early 1990sFinancial crisis plumbs new depthsPipeline price pressures may have peakedUK moves towards recessionHousing market starts to nose-diveInflation heading towards 4%Slowdown starts to take holdCredit crunch shows its teeth
Pipeline inflation pressures still buildingEquities wake up to the deteriorating activity outlookHousing market slowdown gathers paceGrowth slowing, inflation risingConsumers weather the storm...for nowActivity starts to slowMarket turmoil is unlikely to dent the real economyWet weather adds to inflation worriesSigns of consumer vulnerability (Jul 07)Housing market starting to slow
Medium-term price pressures on the riseStrong demand boosts firms' pricing powerHigher interest rates starting to biteStrong growth and inflation data point to further rate riseInflation hits a 10 year highProspects for the external sector deteriorateRise in core inflation puts seal on November rate hikeUK Growth may have peakedUK starts to feel the US slowdownGap between headline & core inflation widens
Revisions leave household savings rising sharplyAsset price movements dent the economic outlookIndustry shows green shoots of recoveryCurrent account deficit underlines economic imbalancesConsumers return to the high streetUK Inflation fears start to ease (Dec 05)UK Core inflation may have peakedThe slowdown continuesCPI inflation jumps above targetSlightly firmer data won’t prevent a rate cut
Revisions further weaken the growth outlookActivity continues to weakenInflation rises but activity slowsConsumers become more cautiousThe markets start to anticipate higher interest ratesConsumers tighten their belts over ChristmasInflation pressures strengthen a littleGrowth slowdown fuels rate cut expectationsInterest rates are very close to a peakConsumers carry on regardless
Housing market concerns drag down rate expectationsLack of GDP revision questions MPC optimismSlower growth and weak inflation cloud rate outlook