Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Is the euro-zone really to blame?

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Articles
Euro-zone threat intensifiesInflation Report to show MPC in wait and see modeA tricky decision for the MPCWorst recovery for 100 yearsMPC wrong to dismiss weak output figuresSterling’s rise clouds export outlookGDP figures may dash recovery optimismCan consumers continue to support growth?Enormous fiscal squeeze still lies aheadSavers’ plight won’t move the MPC
King fends off pressure to follow ECBChancellor unlikely to start splashing some cashQE unlikely to be nearing an endShould the MPC follow the ECB’s example?Contraction unlikely to be just a blipUK’s safe-haven status remains securePension funds hit by fall in bond yieldsIs the recovery getting back on track?What does 2012 hold in store?Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas?
The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighterCredit easing an important step, but no quick fixIs the euro-zone really to blame?Risks from euro-zone intensifyFrom stagnation to contractionCore inflation should soon start to easeQE worth a try, but communication is vitalWeak demand is the real fiscal threatSome encouraging signs on inflationMPC unlikely to wait for long
Lack of lending will continue to hinder recoveryIs the manufacturing sector past the worst?Is the UK on the ratings hit-list?Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation ReportAfter the weak Q2, a poor start to Q3Stress tests underline banking sector fragilityEuro-zone crisis casts cloud over UKWeak Q2 due to more than just temporary factorsTough times on the high streetSagging tax receipts put cracks in Plan A
UK escapes Greek contagion fearsBetween a rock and a hard placeEven the industrial recovery hits the rocksRe-balancing in the extremeConsumer outlook still poorInflation to fall further next year than MPC expectsInflation Report could reinforce drop in rate expectationsRecovery, what recovery?Royal Wedding adds to economic uncertaintyInflation drop gives MPC some breathing space
Slow progress on re-balancingOBR unwise to bank on strong demandBudget could further ease rate fearsEvidence of consumer slowdown mountingOil price rise comes at a bad timeWho else might join the MPC's hawks?Near-term rate outlook still finely balancedWill the Inflation Report open the door to a rate hike?Optimism about the recovery could prove prematureThe Government needs a back-up plan
Sterling threat will help to keep rates lowUK not alone in seeing inflation fears riseHas the recovery really ground to a halt?Don't write off the high street yetIs the MPC's credibility really in danger?Industrial recovery won't save the economyAn early Christmas present for Mr. OsborneEuro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospectsGilts' inflation jitters will ease in timeRenewed rise in inflation needn't rule out QE2
MPC will follow the Fed before longRecovery unlikely to maintain recent paceSpending Review has not lessened the fiscal painSpending Review to deepen the gloomGrowth set to slow next yearFalling saving can't sustain the consumer recoveryFiscal strains yet to easeLabour market slack will help inflation to fallEarly signs of weakness in Q3Double-dip dangers deepen
Is the latest housing downturn just another blip?Gilts right to be sanguine on inflationIs the MPC turning a blind eye to inflation?Slow progress on bank lendingHow much longer can retail spending hold up?Stress tests won’t transform outlookPick-up in services inflation shouldn’t lastAs good as it gets?OBR too optimistic on jobsFiscal worries eased, but not eliminated
The Budget squeeze will hurtOBR’s forecasts to underline need for a tough BudgetRecovery remains fitfulOECD wide of the mark on interest ratesMPC right to be sanguine on inflation, for nowSterling caught in the middleElection needn’t put the UK in the Greek campParties leave us none the wiser on spending cutsDon’t be fooled by the better fiscal newsHas the trade boost arrived?
Industry can’t drive a strong recoveryEconomic data give Government pre-election boostMr Darling leaves lots of holesWill Mr Darling spend or save?Lower pound still not helping muchIs the housing recovery faltering?More clear signals from the MPCA week to forget!MPC retains faith in spare capacity to reduce inflationThe big squeeze is still coming
Why is the UK lagging behind?Sterling’s election rally?Can consumers keep this up?2010 – A bumpy road to recoveryMPC stays focused on the task at handFalls in money and lending argue for more QEMPC takes hope from new money figuresInflation gap set to narrowStill on track for more QEData cast doubts on recovery prospects
Consumer imbalances should not be underplayedTrade boost under threat?Is the recession over?The MPC’s bond yield conundrumRising pound not a problem yetWhy is UK inflation lagging behind?Spare capacity leaves the MPC in no hurryExtra QE may not be enoughDon't bank on a consumer recoveryBudget confirms painful consolidation ahead
Budget hit to bond markets should be temporaryMPC misses an opportunityToo early to talk about a recoveryDeflation risks have not evaporatedMPC banks on asset pricesQE off to a good start... but it is early daysQE does not transform the outlook... yetTaking stock of the banking measuresFiscal boost prospects fadingDeflation risks not fully appreciated
MPC heading into the unknownBottom of the pileIs the UK really going bankrupt?Government needs to take further steps to support the banksMPC slows down, but rates still headed for zeroProlonged period of zero interest rates aheadManufacturing malaiseRecession gathers momentumPBR underlines need for very low interest ratesPBR and falling inflation won't provide much cheer