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UK Consumer Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - What consumers need most is lower commodity prices

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Drop in household wealth another drag on spendingLower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recoveryQE3 likely later this yearMonetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)More QE in May still in the balanceMonetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)Droughts could slow fall in inflationConsensus wrong in thinking MPC done with QE0.5% rates - 3 years down, another 3 to go?Focus on oil prices neglects wider commodity picture
UK Economics Update - Consumers in a sweet spotPPI payments don’t change consumer spending outlookExtra £50bn unlikely to be the last of QEMore QE likely next monthAnother GBP18bn of fiscal tightening due in 2012More QE possible as soon as JanuaryMPC unlikely to pause for longQE2 won't eliminate recession risksCase for more QE strengtheningOverseas examples suggest VAT cuts costly and ineffectual
What consumers need most is lower commodity pricesStruggling recovery needs low interest ratesExtra QE more likely than a rate riseLow rates needed to get recovery back on trackFringes of UK to be worst affected by fiscal squeezeBulk of fiscal squeeze yet to comeCase for a rate hike weakeningWeak economic news could yet stave off a rate hikeNext wave of fiscal tightening hits householdsUK Budget Checklist 2011
Weak economic news could yet stave off a rate hikeHow would a rate rise affect confidence?MPC should hold its nerveHow hard would a rate rise hit households?MPC not panicking yetWill the MPC be panicked into raising rates?VAT inflation effects shouldn't panic the MPCA tough year ahead for consumers2011 to be the year of QE2Fragile consumer sentiment points to spending slowdown
Will the G20 agree to current account targets?QE2 still likely as recovery fadesLow company failures keep a lid on redundanciesEdging closer to more stimulusIs employment really rising that much?Food price rises shouldn’t prompt policy changesQE2 being readied for launchSigns of slowdown keep rates on holdMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Case for near-term hike fading
Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house pricesWhat if the emergency Budget raises VAT?OBR forecasts do not point to a soft BudgetRising inflation unlikely to scare MPC into rate hikesOBR could prompt bigger budget tax hikesTax bargaining just a sideshow to the great squeezeEconomy should not scupper the dealFiscal uncertainty keeps MPC on holdUK election ushers in the Great SqueezePublic sector job cuts could yet take unemployment to 3m
Hot ash won’t cool the UK’s recoveryMPC waits for news on fiscal squeezeUpbeat economic news may not do the job for Mr BrownBudget 2010 – Stamp duty measures ignore the real issuesUK Budget ChecklistLabour market data point to sluggish recoveryHow much has QE pushed up house prices?MPC holds fire again but further action still likelyVAT’s the way they like itJust how damaging would a hung parliament be?
MPC halts QE for now, but may have more work to doHow much has the car scrappage scheme boosted growth?Will a “double-dip” sink Mr Brown?Pay freezes likely to remain commonplaceWhen should Mr Brown go to the polls?Consumer adjustment not over yetMPC frozen until FebruaryMPC pauses, but may need to do more in the new yearPre-Budget ChecklistState-supported banking system still looks too weak to lend
London 2012 – Still no gold medal for the economyLloyds going it alone may not help the lending outlookFear of another Winter of Discontent overdoneBig-ticket items benefit most from rising consumer confidenceWhy are consumers so upbeat?Tory spending cuts are just the beginningSaving rate still some way from peakingMPC on hold until November, but probably not yet doneScrappage scheme boosts car sales – but wider effect unlikelyRising bad debts on “normal” loans another blow for banks
Extra £50bn shows MPC prepared to do all that it takesBanks’ results of little reassurance on the lending frontWill swine flu prolong the recession?Which sectors will falling household income hit hardest?Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011Revised economic growth outlook will not underpin house pricesGrowth revised higher, but outlook still very weakMPC holds fire for now, but more QE probably aheadRising bad debts to constrain bank lendingMPC steps up QE, but effects still highly uncertain
Far too early for a labour market recoveryRise in consumer confidence offers tentative hopeRebound in "discretionary income" will not spur spending recoverySpending can recover before unemployment peaksMPC takes a bold step into the unknownWho will suffer the most from the recession?Northern Rock won’t transform the mortgage market overnightYouth unemployment to hit retail sales and housing marketHouse price falls to exceed 35%Still heading for zero
Mass destruction of household wealth to hit spendingRate cuts still positive for consumer spendingChristmas not as bad as feared, but still badDiscount retailers to remain relative winnersAnother step towards zeroUK interest rates heading for zeroInterest rates heading to zero?Will Christmas bring relief for the high street?Falling immigration won't stop unemployment risingJobs shake-out to become more broad-based
Mortgage interest rates heading to 3%Fireworks from the MPC, and much more to comeHas the housing market outlook changed?Recapitalisation unlikely to revitalise bank lendingFinally, some light at the end of the mortgage market tunnelMPC to start cutting soonGovernment housing measures contain no miracle cureLower food prices will help to drag inflation down next yearRecession risks keep MPC on holdProductivity slowdown won’t stop employment falling
Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982The labour market: now vs. the early 1990sMPC can only watch as recession loomsUK heads towards recessionCan consumers keep spending?Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recessionWhat would cause interest rates to rise?MPC’s inaction points to deeper downturnHousehold bad debt cycle may already have turnedHouse price falls will dent consumer spending
Further signs that immigration has peakedHigher inflation to hit consumersSlower rate cuts increase recession risksMPC's caution points to deeper downturnHoliday spending to take a breakDiscretionary spending to remain squeezedUK house price forecast revisionsRate cuts are reducing aggregate mortgage paymentsOn the way to 3.5%Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling