Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Consumer Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - The Chancellor’s hands are tied

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Articles
Could the Olympic flame reignite the recovery?Is household debt a problem?Budget 2012: Not rocking the boatBudget 2012 PreviewWhy is the UK lagging behind?How will UK property markets fare in 2012?Autumn Statement 2011The Chancellor’s hands are tiedWill retail spending prove resilient again?Can consumers stand the pressure?
Could the recovery cope with a rate rise?Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan AKeeping an eye on the 2011 pay roundIs the housing market heading for a double-dip?Can the economy continue to recover?Housing downturn another blow for consumer spendingHousing downturn another blow for consumer spendingFiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spendingFiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spendingPolicy challenges for the new Government
Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but tenderEmergency Budget 2010: Tough but tenderEmergency Budget PreviewEmergency Budget PreviewCan private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts?Can private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts?UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debateUK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debateBudget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitableBudget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitable
Budget 2010 Preview - A holding operationBudget 2010 Preview - A holding operationAs many Eastern Europeans going as comingAs many Eastern Europeans going as comingWill the UK catch up in the global recovery?Will the UK catch up in the global recovery?Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fallPre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fallHow will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze?How will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze?
Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke?Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke?UK faces a decade of high unemploymentUK faces a decade of high unemploymentThe VAT threat to consumer spendingThe VAT threat to consumer spendingCould the UK have a creditless recovery?Bank lending still set to fall well shortRecent house price rises lack a firm foundationRecent house price rises lack a firm foundation
Why is retail spending so strong?Why is UK retail spending so strong?Pay cuts intensify deflation dangerBudget 2009Budget 2009 - The tip of the icebergWhich parts of consumer spending will recover first?Which parts of consumer spending will recover first?Budget 2009 PreviewBudget 2009 Preview - The great borrowing binge goes onDrag from stockbuilding to ease
Consumer spending rebound unlikely to lastCan pay freezes prevent further job losses?Can pay freezes prevent further job losses?How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessionsFalling inflation won't prevent consumer slump.Durable consumer goods to be hit the hardestA double whammy for retail revenuesWho will drive the spending slowdown?The outlook for household savingsHousing equity withdrawal to grind to a halt
Consumer dangers just as great in the UKUK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best!Caught between a Rock...Unemployment to hit ten-year highThe final blow for consumers?MPC may be too sanguine about housing againMPC may need to let high street spending slumpUK Pre-Budget Report Preview - A pre-election splash?Is household saving really as low as it looks?Resilient housing market could delay spending slowdown.
What will 6% interest rates do to the economy?Employment growth to pick up as profits recoverRecord low saving threatens spending outlookHas the wages threat passed?Have fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market?UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time?UK Budget 2007 - Robbing Peter to pay PeterFalling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate risesBudget 2007 PreviewA timetable for the 2007 pay round
UK spending's no fun anymoreSubdued income growth to limit spending recoveryHow far can retailers widen their margins?Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending?Saving for old age presents a long-term threat to spendingAre UK households saving at all?Budget 2006Outlook still weak for household goods salesBudget 2006 PreviewStrong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persist
Higher tax-take weighs down on householdsThe consumer confidence conundrumHousehold debt goes badHigher savings still the key threat to household spendingLower interest rates may not kick-start spendingTen steps to a weakening labour marketHousehold incomes feel the pinchLong term trends in consumer spendingBudget 2005 PreviewMPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending