Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Commercial Property Monthly

A concise monthly round-up of the relevant economic developments and property market intelligence, as well as picking out the most notable information from the IPD and CBRE monthly property market indices and the Property Data transactions data.

Sample - Transactions activity improves in October, but it may be a peak

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Articles
Capital values on track for 6% fall this yearRecession to extend the falls in capital valuesCapital value falls pick up pace in FebruaryUK institutions make a comeback in JanuaryCapital values edge downInstitutions remain net property sellersTransactions activity improves in October, but it may be a peakEconomic and property market outlook now even weakerNo respite on the horizon for retail occupier marketsAll-property capital values on track for modest gain in 2011
Property investment market volumes remain in the doldrumsDeal activity fails to reboundProperty market activity and prices remain in a lullMarch's capital gain the strongest in nine monthsInvestor activity softens but UK property still a key targetSentiment and investment activity take a knockEconomy set to remain weak in 2011Property market still in a holding patternFragile economic outlook weighs on investment activityRental values remain stable, but strong recovery unlikely (Nov 10)
Investment activity softens; capital values flat (Oct 10)The plateau for capital values has arrived (Sep 10)GDP strong in Q2, but property market likely to cool further (Aug 10)Debt burdens likely to limit property returns for years to come (Jul 10)Lower bond yields to help property yields fall further (Jun 10)Central London office rents rise in March; outlook is positive (May 10)Investment market rebound resumes; yields set to fall further (Apr 10)London office rents rise, but all-property average to fall further (Mar 10)Economic recovery will remain slow, undermining rental values (Feb 10)Slowly recovering economy won’t prevent rental falls in 2010 (Jan 10)
Weak occupier market still likely to limit duration of rebound (Dec 09)Recovery set to continue, though pace may fade in 2010 (Nov 09)Capital values up in August; returns set to continue to improve (Oct 09)Investment market begins recovery, but rental values to fall further (Sep 09)IPD rental values remain on track for double-digit fall in 2009 (Aug 09)Recession likely to end this year, but property will lag behind (Jul 09)Rental values falling at fastest pace in 15 years, worse to come (Jun 09)Forecasts for rental values in 2009 starting to look too optimistic (May 09)Quantitative easing may help, but economic outlook still poor (Apr 09)Investment activity falls back; recovery remains some way off (Mar 09)
Rents now falling in all sectors; pace of decline to accelerate (Feb 09)Falling rents to keep the downward pressure on capital values (Jan 09)Higher risk premiums to keep property yields rising (Dec 08)City office rents lower than a year ago; further weakness ahead (Nov 08)Deteriorating economy means worse to come for property (Oct 08)Economy on the tipping point of recession; property outlook grim (Sep 08)Yield shift accelerates in June as rental value prospects weaken (Aug 08)Modest fall in all-property rental values, but more to come (Jul 08)April’s City office rental value fall to become the trend (Jun 08)More of the same – capital values down, rental values slowing (May 08)
Retail warehouses and City offices continue to lead the slump (Apr 08)Slowing economy will prolong the property downturn (Mar 08)Total returns to be negative again this year (Feb 08)Capital values post largest monthly fall on record in November (Jan 08)Occupier market remains sound, but downside risks dominate (Dec 07)Total returns negative in September, for first time since 1992 (Nov 07)More capital value falls to come as sentiment deteriorates (Oct 07)Marginal capital value falls in July a sign of things to come. (Sep 07)Weaker retail and industrial capital value growth set to persist. (Aug 07)Central London office rental growth may be close to a peak. (Jul 07)
HIgher interest rates mean a faster rise in property yields (Jun 07)Repo rate to hit 5.5% in May, with another rise to come. (May 07)Retail rental growth lowest in more than three years. (Apr 07)“Risk-free” bond yields now higher than property initial yields (Mar 07)Rising interest rates support case for a cooler market in 2007 (Feb 07)A weak month for retail warehouse rents and investment flows. (Jan 07)West End office rental growth cracks 10% (Dec 06)City office rents jump sharply higher. (Nov 06)All-property initial yields stabilise. (Oct 06)Are international investors getting cold feet? (Sep 06)
Prices rocket but transactions volumes falter (Aug 06)Investment market activity softens but prices are still rocketing (Jul 06)Investors opt for office property as rental recovery gathers pace (Jun 06)Property initial yields fall below 5-year swap rates (May 06)Rising industrial availability puts a ceiling on rental growth (Apr 06)Budget 2006: Implications for property (Mar 06)Yields fall through the 6% floor (Mar 06)Investors get nervous as property price growth hits 12% (Feb 06)Office sector continues its recovery (Jan 06)Surveyors and investors become more gloomy about retail (Dec 05)
South East industrial & office markets show signs of life (Nov 05)Retail occupier market shrugs off faltering consumer spending (Oct 05)Property returns edge lower as retail investment cools (Sep 05)Deteriorating economy undermines office recovery (Aug 05)Property starts to feel ill-effects of economic slowdown (Jun 05)Removal of stamp duty exemption knocks March returns… (May 05)Mega-deals push net investment to record high in February (Apr 05)After a stellar December, property comes back down to earth (Mar 05)A bad month for the economy, but a good year for property (Feb 05)The investment boom powers on (Jan 05)
Weak London market holds back recovery across sectors (Nov 04)Institutions return to the property sector (Oct 04)Central London recovery pauses for breath (Sep 04)Property regains its title as best-performing asset class… (Jul 04)Annual rental growth finally turns positive! (Jun 04)Falling yields continue to boost returns … (May 04)