Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU This week’s decision by the US government to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% may have been largely political and symbolic but it raises the stakes for Europe, which will complete its own... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone services inflation should keep falling There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in... 16th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus agree prime office rental growth to slow Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.), Employment and Industrial Production 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle? 1717682400 We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.
Event Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing? 1715760000 After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China.
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift... 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian industrial upswing has further to run The Italian industrial market made a strong start to 2024, with prime rent growth outpacing the rest of the euro-zone and beating our own forecasts. Rental gains are still expected to slow going... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU’s trade war with China Europe will raise barriers to trade and investment with China in the coming months and years. But policymakers will try to balance conflicting objectives so the result may well be a gradual rather... 7th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Luxury rental growth to outperform mass market retail The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years. 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data support the case of the ECB’s doves Data released this week showed that euro-zone services inflation fell in April for the first time in five months. We think that the continued pass-through of lower energy costs and slower wage growth... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read