Global Economics Update Trade to be constrained more by demand than supply World goods trade looks to have had one of its weakest years in over 40 years in 2023. While shipping diversions may weigh on trade in the very near term, we think that they are unlikely to dent trade... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Metals Focus Introducing our lithium price forecast We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. In this Metals Focus, we set... 31st January 2024 · 11 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm... 31st January 2024 · 17 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks 1707318000 Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence?
JODI Energy Demand Monitor JODI Energy Demand Monitor JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally takes a breather ahead of Fed and key US data The US dollar seems set to remain within a tight range against most major currencies this week. At face value, the stronger-than-expected GDP data out of the US might point to a return to “higher for... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly China metals demand; EU weighing Russia metals ban It was generally a positive week for commodity prices and particularly for industrial metals prices. All major industrial metals finished the week higher, seemingly due to some improvement in risk... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will energy equities ever recover? The stock prices of companies in the energy sector (mostly oil & gas firms) have largely underperformed the rest of the stock market recently, and we doubt they’ll do much better in the foreseeable... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2023) Global steel production reportedly stagnated last year. We think it probably will again in 2024 as a drop in production in China should offset increasing output by most other producers. 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Real metals prices are high and have further to rise Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest price pressures remain elevated January’s flash PMI surveys suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies ticked up from a very weak pace at the start of 2024. And with price pressures still strong, central banks will probably... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Are central banks’ hawkish tones to be believed? Central banks will probably continue to push back on expectations of rate cuts at their scheduled policy announcements in the coming weeks. But with inflation and wage pressures clearly moderating, we... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read