Commodities Weekly OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slight improvement in industry February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity improved at the start of this year, but that activity in emerging markets continued to outperform that in advanced economies... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Calm in FX markets lowers the bar for further dollar strength The dollar has remained roughly unchanged against most major currencies over the past two weeks. Given that our expectations for upcoming data releases and central bank meetings – notably, nonfarm... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices will climb higher over the next few years We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update 2023: Fifth weakest year for world trade since 1950 Although world goods trade rose in December, it wasn’t enough to change the fact that 2023 was one of the weakest years for trade in over 70 years, as we forecast a year ago. As for 2024, we expect a... 1st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Central banks contemplate climate mission creep Recent comments by one of the six members of the ECB’s Executive Board have reignited debate over the appropriate role for central banks in tackling climate change. Against this backdrop, we are re... 29th February 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have edged higher in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin up; we expect prices to rise Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What’s behind US economic exceptionalism? Larger government stimulus during the pandemic and a higher propensity to run down “excess savings” have contributed to particularly strong growth in the US. On the other hand, a significant terms of... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar struggles amid “risk on” mood in broader markets The tailwind of US equity outperformance appears to be fading for the greenback, as the DXY Index looks set to post its first weekly fall in 2024. A pullback after such a streak isn’t all that... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will the US dollar and stocks remain in lockstep? So far this year, the US dollar has moved in tandem with the relative performance of US equities. While that may continue over short time horizons, we doubt the rally in US equities we anticipate over... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Economic Outlook – What to expect from global growth to 2050 1709218800 An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces.