Global Economics Update Global industry set for gradual recovery The latest data suggest that global industry may be coming back to life. Much of the improvement so far has related to China, where policy will continue to support domestic production. But falling... 19th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing 1712844000 The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e
Capital Daily The renminbi looks weak and we think it will rally We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Inflation uncertainty could keep the dollar stronger for longer Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly The copper supply squeeze begins to bite It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the... 15th March 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q1 2024) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 15th March 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update “New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green... 14th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Long Run Update Are weight loss drugs a game-changer? There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this... 13th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and a bit of a recovery in... 8th March 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ kicking the can down the road Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in... 4th March 2024 · 21 mins read