Latin America Economics Update Milei’s shock therapy hits congressional reality Argentine President Javier Milei’s ambitious economic reform plans have quickly run into political obstacles. There’s still plenty of fiscal tightening that Milei is likely to undertake and there have... 15th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus What does the election mean for the UK economy? The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the elections in 2017 and 2019. Moreover, whoever wins will be constrained by interest rates having risen relative to... 13th February 2024 · 31 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Pakistan: election result bad news for the economy Pakistan’s general election has thrown the country’s political scene into turmoil, with no party emerging with a majority from Thursday’s poll. A hung parliament may complicate the country’s upcoming... 9th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bond vigilantes fiddle, as budget burns New projections released by the CBO this week show that although the Federal budget deficit is expected to be a bit smaller than previously assumed, it remains on an unsustainable path. Moreover, with... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bad news coming, but better times ahead We’d recommend ignoring any reports on the back of next week’s data releases that the UK economy is heading in the wrong direction on inflation and activity. It may only be a few months before... 9th February 2024 · 11 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Indonesia after Jokowi Indonesia has some of the best long-term growth prospects of any economy. Key to whether it realises them is whether Indonesia maintains the progress President Joko Widodo (better known as Jokowi) has... 7th February 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: After Jokowi – Indonesia’s election and its long-term economic outlook 1707811200 Indonesians go to the polls on 14th February to elect a successor to Joko Widodo, the president popularly known as Jokowi, who pushed through some key reforms to secure the country’s
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Pakistan election: major challenges await next PM The priority for whoever wins Pakistan’s general election on 8 th February will be to agree a new deal with the IMF, which should help put the struggling economy on a more stable footing. But... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary-EU tensions ratchet up with EU funds at stake Were the EU to block Hungary’s access to funds (if it vetoes financing for Ukraine at this week’s summit), as reports on Sunday suggested, this would probably have a smaller direct impact on Hungary’s... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s... 25th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read