UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr. 2024) Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at the start of Q2, the more marked fall in the services output prices balance may make the Bank of... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation will remain around 2% this year We now expect services inflation to remain around 2% this year as a fading tailwind from soaring hotel and package tour prices will be offset by stronger labour cost growth. The upshot is that the... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Time to worry about inflation (again)? Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Modest fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent June rate cut Budget 2024 made a bit of a splash thanks to the unexpected changes to capital gains taxes, but we do not think the new net spending measures were large enough to change the outlook for GDP growth or... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will worries about the euro stop the ECB from cutting? Movements in the exchange rate tend to have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation. So while the euro might weaken if monetary policy in the euro-zone and US were to diverge, we think it would... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and gas price spikes not likely to stop ECB cuts We think the risk of a large and sustained rise in energy prices is low so we remain happy with our forecast that the ECB will cut rates by 125bp this year. If energy prices were to jump very sharply... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global and domestic inflation risks mount We still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures by enough to result in CPI inflation falling below the 2% target in April and below 1.0% later... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US vs. European inflation differences overstated On the face of it, core disinflation seems to have stalled or even reversed in the US but not in Europe, suggesting that Fed cuts will come much later than those by the ECB and BoE. However, there are... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read