Capital Economics

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Latin America Watch

Monthly summary of our views on major talking points, along with previews of key upcoming data and events.

Sample - More to follow Brazil’s lead

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From currency wars to interest rate warsHow is growth shaping up in Latin America?Brazil’s growth model under the spotlightQE3 would be a damp squib for Lat Am marketsWill China pull the rug from under Latin America?Policy set to ease across the region in 2012Room for manoeuvreMore to follow Brazil’s leadRate cuts back on the agenda for 2012Mexican rates on hold until 2013
Rates should peak this yearFood price shock still has a little further to runRates to edge higher but peak by Q4Currency wars take a back seat... for nowInflation spike has further to runTrapped in the impossible trinityRising inflation to be met with unorthodox measuresCould the next move in Brazilian rates be down?Currency concerns to temper rate hikesLearning to live with higher capital inflows
Treading carefullyMarkets still overestimating the pace of tighteningSofter tone of recent data won't stop rate hikesTwo-speed tightening cycle underwayBrazil to hike again, despite market turmoilBrazil set to begin tightening monetary policyTightening cycle nears but rate hikes will be moderateBrazil edges towards first rate hikeModest monetary tightening to begin in Q2Monetary tightening will be gradual
Thoughts turn to monetary tighteningPolicymakers in ‘wait and see’ modeStronger growth won’t bring forward rate hikesMarkets too quick to price in rate hikesNearing the bottomFurther cuts likely, but pace of easing set to slowRates set to fall further despite 'green shoots'Interest rates heading for record lows