The slump in Brazilian industrial production in June tips the balance in favour of interest rates being left unchanged (rather than hiked) later this month, and suggests that the tightening cycle has probably ended. Over the next six-twelve months policymakers are likely to focus less on the threat of rising inflation and more on the damage inflicted on domestic producers by an excessively strong currency. However, the raft of measures announced today to support local manufacturers barely scratch the surface.