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Latin America Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - Food prices drive Mexican inflation higher

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Articles
Argentina edging closer to recessionPre-election spending deepens structural problems in VenezuelaWhat should we expect from first quarter GDP in Brazil?Strong start to the year in Chile unlikely to lastSpanish banking links revisitedMexican economy well placed to weather external shocksLatin America currencies battered by flight to safetyOpening up Mexican oil sector could pump growthCounting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriersMexican industry to outperform
Brazilian manufacturing suffers a relapseOld concerns re-emerge as Peru’s recovery gains paceTweaking our interest rate forecastsArgentina’s economic ‘model’ living on borrowed timeArgentine FDI: is there life after YPF?Mexico Election Watch: PRI consolidates its leadBrazil’s interest rate floor revisitedWhat next for Brazilian rates?Chile, Peru signal near-term rate change unlikelyCredit growth still uncomfortably strong
Brazil returns to (unbalanced) growthBalanced growth suggests Mexico will continue to outperformChilean economy not yet out of the woodsYPF just another scapegoat for failures of Argentine modelPrice controls are not the answer to Venezuelan inflationMexican survey data strong, but rates could still fall this yearBetter PMI won’t prompt ceasefire in Brazil’s “currency war”Mexico Election Watch: Will Peña Nieto push through reforms?Uruguayan rates on hold as economy begins to coolJump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America
Argentine Q4 slowdown is a sign of things to comeArgentina: New BCRA Charter is a licence to print moneyWhat next for Brazil’s “currency war”?Strong Q4 in Colombia, but can it last?Is Chile’s economy already on the mend?Mexican interest rates still more likely to fall than riseWarning signs from the Colombian capital accountMexico set for period of steady, yet unspectacular, growthMercosur protectionism may have a silver lining for UruguayPeruvian inflation poised to fall further in coming months
Brazilian rates heading back to 2009 lowMexico Election Watch: Presidential race starting to heat upBrazil avoids recession but “two-speed” growth is unsustainableCapital inflows threaten to destabilise Latin AmericaBrazil’s industrial recovery at threat from resurgent realArgentina’s suspect data puts spotlight back on ‘Kirchnerismo’Peru to remain among the region’s best performers in 2012Concerns about Brazilian credit growth starting to resurfaceColombia hikes rates as imbalances resurfaceVenezuela facing huge challenges despite bond market rally
Mexican interest rates still more likely to fall than riseArgentina's economy looks to have come off the boil in Q4Taking stock of Brazil's budget cutsRates on hold as Chile’s economy regains some momentumMaking sense of Latin America’s inflation conundrumWill Chavez get stuck in the MUD?Chile: central bank may pause before cutting rates againFiscal reforms still key to preventing excessive FX appreciationUruguay: threat of overheating to recede this yearBrazilian industry finding its feet
Colombian interest rates still likely to fall this yearChile’s two-speed economy likely to struggle in 2012Argentina: time to face the ugly truth on inflation?Savings hold the key to dealing with falling commodity pricesPeru’s Humala makes a solid start; bigger challenges aheadColombian growth easing, not overheatingFew surprises as BCB signals further easing to comePeru: further policy stimulus on the cards as growth easesArgentina on a road to nowhere with protectionist policiesChile cuts interest rates as growth cools
Brazil: Retail strength unlikely to offset industrial weaknessVenezuela: Devaluation may be delayed until after electionsFood prices drive Mexican inflation higherEcuador feels the squeeze from lower oil pricesBrazil meets inflation target by the skin of its teethBrazilian industry remains under the coshChile to cut rates as economic activity coolsResilience in the Mexican economy unlikely to lastUruguay better placed to weather slowdown than ArgentinaQ3 probably as good as it gets for Colombia
Chile: next in the region to commence rate cuts?How would a crisis in Europe hit Latin American banks?Argentina: Material changes to the “model” still seem unlikelyEmerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012Lat Am equities to disappoint in 2012, outperform in 2013Brazil: Interest rates to fall further as economy stallsSlowing growth in Chile bolsters the case for rate cutsQuick fixes are storing up a large adjustment in VenezuelaBrazilian interest rates heading for single digitsInterest rate cuts still likely in Peru as economy outperforms
Colombian interest rates still likely to fall next yearBrazilian banks tighten the screwColombia should continue to outperform next yearColombia: Reform agenda must keep up with commodity boomMexico Q3 GDP surprises on the upside, but still likely to slowChilean GDP growth to slow as global headwinds buildChile, Peru play a waiting game on ratesWhat are the implications of Argentina's subsidy cuts?Peru: modest rate cuts likely in 2012Brazilian inflation has peaked
Ecuador’s current pace of growth is unsustainableConcerns about Mexican inflation fading, rate cuts on the wayColombia-US trade agreement could ease Dutch DiseaseIs there a floor on Brazilian interest rates?Brazilian industry slides into recessionArgentina: currency controls could prove self-defeatingColombian interest rates could still fall next yearWorrying signs from Brazil's current account (again)Fernández victory sets Argentina up for a hard landingArgentina set to re-elect Cristina, but what next?
Brazil rate cuts not as risky as most assumeLatin America’s currencies still look overvaluedChile: rate cuts expected from Q1 2012Mexican equity market highlights the risk of recessionCurrency depreciation unlikely to delay interest rate cuts for longChile’s budget expansion is built on solid foundationsBrazilian inflation has probably peakedMexican IMEF surveys point to weak Q3Brazil industry sliding into recessionUruguay: rates have peaked, cuts to follow in 2012
Credit cycle about to turn in Latin AmericaPillars to Colombian growth set to weakenHow vulnerable is Chile to a global slowdown?What should we make of the real’s fall from grace?Argentina: threat of overheating still looms largeUruguay’s slowing growth to continue for a while yetArgentina’s inflation inaccuracies underlie deeper economic illsMexico: Weak wage growth to underpin fragile domestic demandPeru: in no rush to follow Brazil’s lead on ratesMexico: IMEF manufacturing survey not as promising as it seems
Brazilian inflation edges further above targetBrazil: Q2 GDP data solid, Q3 looking direMexico most likely to follow Brazil’s lead?What next for Brazilian rates?Will the next move in Mexican rates be down?Peru slows but solid fundamentals remain intactColombia: Global uncertainty prompts pause in rate hikesMexican economy set for extended period of slow growthChile shifts to neutral on softer global growth prospectsChile’s resilient growth faces tougher times ahead
Venezuelan gold rush a sign that the dollar drought is backBrazil: here comes the slowdownPeru: Growth slowing but not collapsingAnother pause for Peru as policymakers take shelterMexico: Interest rates on hold until 2013?Market mayhem underlines downside risks to growthChile’s slowing inflation makes another pause probableAre emerging markets immune?Mexican IMEF survey points to weak growthBrazil: attention back on the real