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Japan Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Still in the grip of deflation

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Power shortages will bite hard this summerSafe haven demand to lift yen furtherA bumpy ride for growthJapan mustn’t miss chance for trade liberalisationA return to growth in 2012Making sense of the monetary aggregatesOver-employment at Japanese firms on the way outRaising the consumption tax: a small step forwardA brief look at Japan’s small business surveysWhat can be done to boost growth?
How the disaster changed Japan’s economyHow much will the auto-subsidy boost GDP?Are rising oil prices a threat to Japan’s economy?Additional monetary easing is not enoughA closer look at the income accountFinance Ministry poised to act (unsuccessfully)Power uncertainty will accelerate hollowing outDoes talk of euro intervention make sense?Edging closer to a tipping pointLarge external surpluses are now history
A look back at 2011Growth to disappoint in 2012Strong yen undermining efforts to control inflationGovernment relying on depleted fiscal firepowerA warning shot over public financesAnother blow for the auto industryJapan still a long way from joining free-trade pactThe success (or otherwise) of yen interventionDisappointing end to an unimpressive Q3Will GDP get a boost from house building activity?
What can we learn from consumer confidence?GDP forecasts revised downStimulus needed to prevent treble-dipBank of Japan not government could turn the yen“Operation Twist” not so pivotal for the yenNervous households have much to be nervous aboutVehicle sales: a good indicator of retail spending?Growth and inflation: where next?What will Japan's policymakers do next?Still in the grip of deflation
Don’t overestimate the impact of a strong yenWhat to make of a strong yenNo escape from deflationTrying to keep the lights onGDP forecasts refreshedA closer look at the TankanJapan-China trade: explaining the double deficitNew budget, same old problemsBank lending on course to rise againAuto sector moving up a gear
Labour data still to feel full impact of earthquakeA long way downRecession confirmed?How useful are the PMI surveys?Two positives for Golden WeekTaking stock: the economic impact of the earthquakeLittle room for manoeuvre in public financesWhat will the disaster do to inflation?Risk of fiscal crisis growingBig downside risks to the Tankan
Why it's worse than KobeNational disasterA long week in politicsAnother headwind Japan could do withoutRecovery cannot rely on exports aloneInvestment spending to remain sluggishSlipping back into recessionThree ways the fiscal crisis could play outFaltering recovery adds to fiscal challengesRearranging the deckchairs
A cautionary note on Japanese equitiesHow it could all go horribly wrongRecession risks growingUpside risks to the TankanDon't write off the recovery in manufacturingMore to the inflation story than just the coreDon't be fooled by the return of "inflation"Q3 strong, but Q4 much weakerHas the yen finally turned?Bank of Japan keeps its options open
Is the economy already rolling over into recession?A glimmer of hopeIs China to blame for the strong yen?Bank of Japan set to disappoint marketsWave of data should support recovery hopesWill intervention work?Strong start to Q3, turbulence aheadJapan's stock market should outperform soonPolitical and fiscal risks to help undermine the yenGrowth to pick up again in H2
How uncompetitive is the yen?What can the Bank of Japan do?Growth slowing, not collapsingOn the yen againWould an inflation target help?Weak lending is poor evidence of a credit crunchA mid-year progress reportYen strength not fatal, but clearly unwelcomeGovernment’s growth strategy fails to impressNew PM makes a good start
Yen to weaken without need for interventionEmployment conditions still improvingHow Japanese GDP can grow by 4.5%GDP growth to top 4% this yearUnambitious fiscal plan to test markets’ patienceJapan dodges Greek crisis... for nowShould the Bank of Japan be doing more?What's the best use of a consumption tax hike?What does renminbi appreciation mean for the yen?Yen heading for 100 against the dollar
Risks to JGB yields shifting to the upsideSmall is beautifulA closer look at the GDP dataFiscal outlook is the biggest risk to the yenHow far can we trust the GDP data?The bumblebee economyStill positive on stocks and bondsQ4 GDP to beat consensusActivity strong but deflation fears growA better week in prospect for Japanese data
What difference will Kan make?Bright outlook for 2010Recovery restrained, but intactHas the investment cycle bottomed out?Perceptions trump reality on the yenWhat’s happening in Japan’s labour market?How big a threat is deflation to the recovery?Is Japan facing a sovereign debt crisis?