Bank lending fell again in September in year-on-year terms, but at its slowest rate in almost two years. Lending has already bottomed out on a month-on-month basis and the annual rate of change is set to turn positive by the end of this year. However, there is little reason to believe that the economy has been held back by a lack of credit. Meanwhile, the tertiary activity index for August added to evidence that GDP returned to growth in the third quarter, but also that forward momentum is weak.