Worse than expected results from the Tankan survey and deteriorating global conditions have prompted us to revise down our Japan GDP forecasts for 2012 and beyond. We continue to expect a full-year recession in 2011 and a rebound in growth in 2012, but the strength of this rebound is likely to be much weaker than previously anticipated. We are now forecasting GDP growth of just 1.0% next year (down from 2.0% previously), and 0.5% in 2013 (down from 1.0%). This is below the Bloomberg consensus of 1.7% in both 2012 and 2013.