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The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

Bank of Japan Watch

Gives a view on the forthcoming rate setting meeting of the central bank.

Sample - Forecast downgrade and further easing, with a twist

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Articles
Policy Board to take stock and reassess its optionsExtending APP horizon could allow ¥20tr of JGB purchasesFurther easing coming, just not yetPolicy Board on a roll after launch of QE5Intervention moving up the agendaGDP & inflation forecasts downgradeWhat next for the Asset Purchase Program?Forecast downgrade and further easing, with a twistPolicy on hold ahead of forecast updates in late OctoberIntervention increasingly likely as yen strengthens further
Board not yet ready to heed IMF adviceGDP forecasts to be cut, but not by enoughForecasts looking too rosyBank of Japan looks overseas for salvationFurther substantial easing to comeReady to respond? (Nov 10)Easing bias in place for the foreseeable futureYen intervention not yet a significant monetary toolForecasts of end to deflation are prematureToken “easing” could now disappoint markets
Caution to dominate, for nowMore stimulus coming soonStill more that could be doneA refreshingly simple exit strategyDeflation and near-zero rates to last for yearsMore work still to doJob done?What more can the BoJ do?Edging back towards quantitative easing?Bank of Japan to follow Fed to zero
ZIRP to return in 2009Japanese interest rates to be cut to zeroBetter news coming on growth and inflationRates on hold for remainder of this yearBank of Japan likely to follow an ECB hikeMarkets right no longer to expect the BoJ to cut ratesNew forecasts to support the case for higher ratesRate cut speculation is on very shaky ground2008 is not a rerun of 2001, at least for the BoJNext move in Japanese rates is still a hike
Is the next move in Japanese rates a cut?Bank of Japan on alert as inflation pressures buildRates on hold until at least NovemberAugust rate hike still on the agendaFukui to prepare ground for August hikeAugust rate hike likely, but markets still complacentGDP data should support hawks at BoJNew forecasts should support further rate hikes, eventuallyUS downturn to keep BoJ on hold a while longerDiminishing spare capacity points to higher rates
February rate hike is more likely than notRates to rise further in 2007 than the markets expectXmas rate rise would be more Santa than ScroogeRate decision hinges on GDP data