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Global Markets Update

Short and timely commentaries on global market issues and events, including important developments affecting equities, bonds, currencies and commodities.

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Articles
Are Treasuries the real deal?What next for euro-zone equities?When will equities triumph over bonds again?Where is the safe haven demand for gold?Patience could be a virtue in the UK stock marketThree illustrative scenarios for the price of goldBank of Japan running out of room to surpriseTurn in the US profit cycle loomsWeather won't keep US natural gas prices down for longBunds increasingly vulnerable to erosion of safe haven status
Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011?Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011?New forecasts for bond and stock marketsA stronger yen likely to undermine Japan’s stock marketNew forecasts for the yenHas the US equity risk premium reached a peak?Gilts unimpressed by £50bn more QE, but outlook still rosyToo soon to call the end of the bull market in TreasuriesUS Treasuries to benefit from more than just Fed policyA deepening liquidity trap would be bad news for equities
What next for the euro?US stock market at risk from the earnings cycleHow much difference will the Fed's rate forecasts make?2012 should be another disappointing year for US equitiesTwo painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011Bond market implications of future economic divergenceThe future still looks bright for US TreasuriesNew market forecasts - the fall-out from an EMU break-upCatch-22 for German BundsWorse to come for “core” euro-zone bonds?
What to make of Greece’s bigger “haircut”Growing stresses in the banking systemLabour's share of income and the outlook for US equitiesRenewed yen strength to keep Japan’s stock market weakChinese whispers alone won't save the euroYen to strengthen to 60 against the dollarUS corporate earnings and the outlook for the stock marketUS government bonds still fundamentally soundEuro still likely to slide furtherBack to the barber?
Just how safe is the yen?Gold’s remaining pillars still strongCorporate bonds vs. corporate equitiesThe big picture on emerging market currenciesThe intangible aspect of stock market valuationHow stressed out is the euro-zone banking sector?New market forecasts – even lower Treasury yields aheadWhat would QE3 mean for the markets?TIPS close to a tipping point?Does rising credit risk pose a threat to Bunds?
What next for emerging market markets?Prospects for the other major developed stock marketsUS Treasury yields could fall even furtherHow much further could the US stock market fall?Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disasterEssential points on the US debt crisisWhat would a US downgrade mean for the dollar?What if the US defaults?What if the US loses its AAA rating?What next for the Swiss franc?
Would a US sovereign credit downgrade rattle Treasuries?Are the best days for German Bunds behind us?US stock market rally unlikely to lastCan China solve the euro-zone’s problems?Would Chinese reserve diversification hurt the dollar?New forecasts for the US dollarWhat next for Japan's stock market?Plenty of life left in the Treasury market rallyHow long is healthy profit growth likely to last?Yen likely to weaken sharply again
Treasuries – who will fill the void left by the Fed?Profits of doomInflation fears to fade as commodity prices slideHard to argue with negative outlook on US AAA credit ratingEnd of QE2 may not be a big deal for emerging marketsSilver to follow gold to all-time highWhat will the end of QE2 mean for Treasuries?How attractively valued is Japan's equity market?Tokyo callingUS companies still building up their cash piles
How will Japan's disaster affect the rest of the world?Better days should lie ahead for EM equitiesHave oil prices already overshot?What does the Libyan crisis mean for oil prices?What should we make of surging share buy-backs?Crisis in Egypt could keep food prices higher for longerRecent weakness in gold price unlikely to be sustainedOur big calls for 2011 (and beyond)Gilts should have a better second half of the year"Currency war" still phoney but China tensions spreading
Can China save the euro?How useful is nominal GDP as a guide to bond yields?Gold price forecast raised to $2,000Chinese demand won't support commodity prices for ever2011 looks less promising for the US equity marketIs this is the beginning of the end for low US yields?Are Treasuries overvalued compared to US equities?Market implications of more US fiscal stimulusWill common euro-zone bond issuance see the light of day?Should the world care about Ireland?
Yen to fall further against the dollarIs the Fed's QE2 already high and dry?Has the US already begun a “currency war”?Firms' high ROE does not justify a re-rating of US equitiesIs the tide turning against the euro?QE2 is no panacea for the US stock marketWill QE continue to undermine the dollar?Oil prices to drop to $60pb in 2011What will the weaker dollar do for US corporate profits?Commodity super-cycle, or bubble?
Getting to grips with TIPSBubble trouble?Just how significant is yen intervention?A change of view on goldWhat does pay-out policy imply for the US equity market?Yen to weaken regardless of interventionThe euro’s troubles are far from overOutperformance of emerging equities looks here to stayUS profit margins should get squeezed soonNo bubble yet in government bonds
Are TIPS close to a tipping point?An update on the valuation of the UK stock marketHow much do seasonal factors drive gold?Gold market needs some fresh impetus soonWhat can the money supply tell us about gold prices?What next for the yen?Is the worst over for the US stock market?How much use is the Baltic index?A rosy outlook for giltsHow long can Japanese yields defy fiscal concerns?
Pace of renminbi appreciation set to disappointJapan’s equity market should not underperform for longIs the euro out of the woods?Shrinking corporate savings – a worry for Treasuries?What next for sterling?US profit growth should continue to slowAre UK equities attractive relative to gilts?Will the rally in US Treasuries run out of steam?Liquidity is important, but it is not the be all and end allWhat next for commodities?
New market forecasts – an even stronger dollar aheadWould QE be so bad for the euro?Japan still a crisis in waitingWhat next for gold?Bunds should benefit from monetary anti-freezeHow will sterling markets fare after the election?Margins look stretchedUS Treasury may only be delaying the inevitableIs the new pricing system for iron ore such a big deal?A saving grace for the Treasury market