Capital Economics

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Global Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on global economic issues and events.

Sample - US manufacturing continues to shrug off euro-zone woes

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Where is the safe haven demand for gold?Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persistsThree illustrative scenarios for the price of goldFears of global food price inflation unjustifiedCould a country ever lose money by lending to the IMF?G20 inching towards more resources for IMFGlobal PMI suggests manufacturing recovery lacklustreWhat's happening to global growth?Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zoneUS economy to pull further ahead of euro-zone
Commodity price moves do not herald a surge in inflationGlobal manufacturing recovery fading?How much will fiscal austerity constrain the recovery?How big is the threat from rising oil prices?Global trade slowed last year, prospects poor for 2012Is this recovery the real deal?Could a Greek default be another Lehman's moment?How damaging will the Iranian oil embargo be?Will the global recovery last the course this time?China will not bail out euro-zone alone
Global manufacturing picks up in January, but will it last?Was the Fed statement really so positive for commodities?Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensusUS manufacturing continues to shrug off euro-zone woesTwo painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012Growing divergence between US and euro-zone manufacturingWill the IMF save the euro?Will lower commodity prices rescue the world economy?Kicking the Cannes down the road
Kicking the Cannes down the roadGlobal manufacturing weak even before euro crisis deepenedWill the G20 achieve anything in Cannes?How damaging will a Greek default be?Is the world slipping back into recession?Are we any closer to a Tobin tax?How serious is the global downturn?What are the risks of a double dip?Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world?Policymakers may be increasingly impotent
Are emerging markets immune?Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disasterMarket falls deepen economic risksGlobal growth continued to slow in JulyMore signs that global growth is slowingHave oil prices fallen enough to fuel a global recovery?How much should we fear the fall-out from Greece?How far is the slowdown due to supply chain problems?Global manufacturing growth at eight month lowEmerging market inflation close to peaking
Is China exporting inflation?Global manufacturing PMIs for April show steady growthWhere and why we differ from the packWhat does China's trade rebalancing mean for the world?No rush to follow the ECBUAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.)How much should we worry about global supply chains?World trade makes strong start to 2011Natural disasters vs. financial shocksHow will Japan's nuclear crisis affect world energy markets?
Global recovery strong for now, but set to slowHow does this oil price spike compare with history?Oil spike alone unlikely to cause a global recessionIs gold heading for a replay of 1980?G20 struggles to find common ground on imbalancesCould SDRs challenge the dollar?What does the Tunisian crisis mean for the Middle East?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Food or energy - which is the greatest inflation threat?What will 2011 hold for emerging markets?
Bah, humbug! Recovery set to disappointThe beginning of the end for global imbalances?Is the global recovery back on track?Limited help for commodities from ChinaIs the latest global inflation scare justified?G20: new words, same old storyAre the markets running ahead of themselves?Will the G20 agree to current account targets?Will the G20 agree to current account targets?World trade recovery to weaken in 2011-12
Are we on the cusp of a currency war?How big an inflation threat are rising food prices?World growth to continue to disappointWorld trade recovery to continue but threats remainIs the world heading for a double-dip?World trade recovery starting to lose momentumWorld trade growth set to slow into 2011Canada first to hike rates in the G7Big picture still dominated by fiscal challengesUK election ushers in the Great Squeeze
Is Greece the next Lehmans?World trade still on the mendBank of Canada signals imminent rate hikeUK election won’t transform the economic outlookRecovery in world trade losing steamIs the world heading for the wrong sort of bank levy?How worried should we be about tightening in China?GDP detail reveals fragility of recoveriesA harder grind for world trade from now onIs Japan the next Greece?
Sectoral divergence reinforces doubts about the recoveryG7 out in the coldHow quickly will world trade recover?World trade recovery remains on trackStronger demand continues to lift world tradeWhat is happening to Chinese commodity demand?Are we any closer to a global Tobin tax?Capital controls unlikely to deter inflows to emerging worldRecovery in world trade still looks on trackWhat difference will the G20 summit make?
Recovery in world trade gathering paceBrighter 2010 to give way to gloomier 2011What to make of the G20Asia leading the pick-up in world tradeG7 recovery yet to impressWhat’s the story on inflation expectations?How quickly will world trade recover?SDRs set for massive increase in supplyAsia recovering, but emerging markets in Europe still sickCentral banks not losing faith in the dollar
What's happening to world trade?Anaemic global recovery likely to disappointWill financial markets help or hinder recovery?How much should we worry about swine flu?Is the world on the road to recovery?Is the loss of capacity a serious inflationary threat?London Summit - where will the money come from?G20 delivers (in part) on trade financeHow vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism?G20 action on trade finance could be the one big positive
No dislodging the dollarBank of Canada cuts rates & hints at shift to QEDoes Zimbabwe provide any lessons for QE?Bank of Canada cut rates to record lowEcuador defaultsBank of Canada takes the initiativeWhat would be the implications of an Ecuadorian default?Global fiscal stimulus still falling shortHow low can interest rates go?G20 short on specifics but long on good intentions
What to expect from the G20 summitHow much should we worry about deflation?World heading for worst recession since WWIIAre we all Keynesians again?Is the world heading for recession?Global interest rates have much further to fallWhatever happened to decoupling?Some better news on food pricesCentral banks still have a lot more work to doWorld trade slowing, but unlikely to collapse