Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q1) GDP growth in the Philippines slowed in Q1 and we expect further weakness over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and weaker export demand weigh on activity. 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflationary pressures in the labour market set to chill All signs are that unit labour cost growth in New Zealand will plummet in the coming quarters. Coupled with subdued domestic demand, that should feed through to lower non-tradables inflation in short... 9th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) While regular private sector wage growth in February and services CPI inflation in March were both a bit higher than the Bank of England had expected, we still think that the flatlining of the economy... 8th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q1 2024) The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth in Indonesia remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity... 6th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trans Mountain expansion finally completed After 12 long years, the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion finally entered commercial service this week. The pipeline has the potential to raise oil exports significantly, but the full boost is... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity? The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more... 3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data support the case of the ECB’s doves Data released this week showed that euro-zone services inflation fell in April for the first time in five months. We think that the continued pass-through of lower energy costs and slower wage growth... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show recovery in global industry still an EM story The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read