The latest speech by Governing Council member Axel Weber has highlighted the growing divergence between the ECB and more pro-active central banks elsewhere. We hope that the Bank might yet take bolder supportive action as the economy weakens. For now, though, its apparent bias towards policy tightening looks set to maintain the near-term upward pressure on the euro, supporting our view that the euro-zone recovery will grind more or less to a halt next year.