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European Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - Have we underestimated Germany?

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Articles
What more can the ECB do to help?Would a country exiting the euro also have to leave the EU?Euro-bonds can't keep the euro-zone togetherWill falling bank deposits force Greece out?Just how hard would a Greek exit hit the ECB?Is Portugal still next in line?Greece: After the electionContagion is still the key dangerHigher German inflation won’t rescue the peripheryGreek election deadlock raises euro exit risk
ECB: 'Austerity' wins the dayBank bond purchases could deepen the crisisEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)Spain: Banking on a bail-out?Can Hollande really transform France’s outlook?Greek election won’t buy much timeEuro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)Austerity backlash brings new dangersFrench election won’t tackle key issuesECB keeps the onus on governments
Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.)Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)SNB’s support won’t rescue the Swiss economyTARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problemsItaly remains in troubled watersDebt deal not the end of Greece’s problemsECB puts the ball in governments’ courtWill the Greek debt deal go through?LTROs won't solve the euro-zone crisisEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.)
Will German consumer optimism cause a spending revival?Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)Greece still in a "debt trap"Greek rescue deal has shallow foundationsWorse to come for SpainWalking away from Greece would be a big gambleSwedish rate cut unlikely to be the lastWould a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI?ECB focuses on credit crunch dangersAusterity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece
Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.)Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)Debt deal will not end Greece’s problemsECB stands firm on bond purchasesMerkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up riskEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.)Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Have we underestimated Germany?Swedish Riksbank cuts rates and more likely to comeThe implications of a French downgrade
Is the ECB doing more than we think?ECB shatters hopes of a "silver bullet"Markets’ euro optimism to prove short-lived againItalian prospects remain grimEuro break-up will leave no country unscathedEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.)Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)Are euro bonds the answer?Are markets starting to price in a euro break-up?Will the new Spanish Government steady the ship?
Is France falling out of the core?ECB unlikely to fire the silver bulletItaly needs more than a new governmentWill the ECB come to Italy’s rescue?Italy moves closer to the brinkDraghi makes a dovish start, but won’t up bond purchasesGreek referendum episode has let the cat out of the bagWhat next for Greece?Greek referendum throws whole rescue plan into doubtEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.)
Chinese whispers alone won't save the euroEuro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)Euro-zone plans more peashooter than bazookaHow damaging will a Greek default be?Euro still likely to slide furtherECB supports banks, but drags heels on ratesGreek budget does not eliminate near-term default risksEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.)Proposed EFSF expansion is not all that it appearsDoes Ireland’s recovery provide hope for Southern Europe?
Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)New rescue plans are unlikely to save the euroIs Greece’s second bail-out dead and buried?Deepening debt crisis points to new recessionECB paving the way for rate cutsConcerns about Italy to resurfaceGerman court ruling points to troubles aheadIs Greece at risk of an imminent default?SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economyEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.)
Strong Swiss franc starts to hurtEuro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)Belgium's political crisis yet to take its tollGreece's second bail-out deal far from being concludedIs Ireland over the worst?On the road to fiscal union?Euro-zone crisis another headache for IcelandDoes Germany still want to save the euro?Market relief for Portugal likely to be short-livedWhat more can the SNB do?
Could German courts block the bail-outs?Plunging equity markets exacerbate growth risksFrance's problems threaten policymakers' firepowerItaly’s fiscal measures will need to be seen to be believedECB purchases may have little lasting impactECB softens its stanceWhat next for Italy and Spain?SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s riseCan the new rescue package solve Greece’s problems?Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.)
Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Greece needs much more than a bank levyLast chance saloon for euro-zone policymakers?Italy’s troubles raise risk of euro-zone break-upThe beginning of the end for the euro?ECB takes a hard lineSwedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to comeHidden costs could hinder Portugal’s fiscal effortsEuro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.)
Greek disaster averted, for now at leastBank roll-over plan a small step forward for GreeceWill Ireland and Portugal roll over their debt too?Greece on the brinkSNB strikes a dovish toneEuro's unwanted strength heightens break-up dangersWhere would a second bail-out leave Greece?How far is Spain from a tipping point?ECB signals July rate hike & stands firm on Greek defaultECB trying to hold back the tide
Economic clouds still hanging over IcelandGreek bail-out 2 will merely delay the inevitableEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May)Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)Would banks cope with a Greek debt "reprofiling"?Will the domino effect hit Belgium?Will Ireland also need a second bail-out?Spain: are cracks starting to show?Can Portugal push away debt restructuring fears?What next for Greece?
ECB softens its stance slightlyEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)ECB keeping its options openPortugal succumbs. Now what?What will higher rates do to the euro-zone?Could Portugal yet escape a bail-out?Banks a heavy weight around Ireland's neckEuro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.)Why are default concerns not hitting the euro?Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)