Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

Emerging Europe Watch

Monthly summary of our views on major talking points, along with previews of key upcoming data and events.

Sample - Euro-crisis takes centre stage

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Articles
Q1 GDP data should impress – but can it last?Evaluating Hungary’s Early FX Repayment SchemeIt’s the levels, stupid!Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growthHungary plays chicken with the marketsInflation threat is not as big as many fearEuro-crisis takes centre stageLittle room for manoeuvreFocus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stabilityCase for rate cuts set to strengthen
E.coli outbreak not the only disinflationary factorInflation still driven by food and energyInflation fears to fade by the end of the yearPoles apartECB rate hikes won't prompt knee-jerk response in CEETurkey shifts to 'wait and see' modePicking apart the mixed messages on ratesMonetary policy to get creative in 2011Polish MPC split down the middleTurkey steps up its 'exit strategy' (Oct 10)
Still in no rush to tighten (Sep 10)Policymakers to look through any food price spike (Aug 10)Inflation pressures still thin on the ground (Jul 10)Markets still overstating pace of tightening (Jun 10)Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10)Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10)Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10)Policymakers to look through rise in inflation (Feb 10)In no rush to tighten (Jan 10)Policymakers to retain their dovish bias (Dec 09)
Easing-cycle may be over, but hikes are not imminent (Nov 09)Markets still premature in pricing in rate hikes (Oct 09)Talk of rate hikes to prove premature (Sep 09)Easing-cycles still have further to run (Aug 09)Rates set to fall as confidence edges up (Jul 09)Market still underestimating scope for rate cuts (Jun 09)Pick-up in inflation to prompt pause in easing cycle (May 09)Pace of cuts eases, but rates still set to fall (Apr 09)Rates still set for record lows despite market turmoil (Mar 09)Pace of cuts to ease but still heading for record lows (Feb 09)
Rates heading for record lows (Jan 09)Rates set to fall despite currency risks (Dec 08)Falling currencies to prevent dramatic rate cuts (Nov 08)Rate cuts won’t keep pace with ECB (Oct 08)Currency markets take centre stage (Sep 08)Tightening cycle drawing to a close (Aug 08)Further hikes to come in Turkey (Jul 08)Central Banks still in tightening mode (Jun 08)Further rate hikes in the pipeline (May 08)Central Banks turn hawkish (Mar 08)
Still in hawkish mode (Apr 08)Currency weakness to prompt hike in Hungary (Feb 08)Policy tightening set to resume in Poland (Jan 08)Policymakers to pause before Christmas break (Dec 07)Poland and Czech Rep. to hike, Hungary to cut (Nov 07)Further cut in Hungary looks likely (Oct 07)Hungary cut looks on the cards (Sep 07)Hungary to cut as inflation outlook improves (Aug 07)Czech Rep to hike as labour market tightens (Jul 07)Weak labour data to signal cuts in Hungary (Jun 07)