Emerging Europe Economics Update
Turkey: the slowdown has started
Turkish Q3 GDP data, due next week, are likely to show that the economy slowed to around 5.5% on an annual basis and contracted over the quarter on the back of weaker domestic demand. But, crucially, this does not yet reflect the impact of tighter monetary policy, which started in October. Accordingly, we think the following quarters’ data are likely to be much worse.
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