The surge in Russian industrial production growth in April is not quite as good as it appears at first sight since it is flattered by base effects stemming from the collapse in activity last year. In annual terms at least, industrial production growth is likely to remain strong over the coming months, which should support an impressive looking recovery in overall GDP. Nonetheless, we still expect the recovery to grind to a halt over the second half of the year and into 2011, driven in part by a further drop in oil prices.