Russia’s economy appears to have ended 2011 on a high note. Our estimates suggest that GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 – a slight improvement on 4.8% y/y in Q3. Even so, a combination of falling oil prices, tighter credit conditions and weaker external demand will weigh on the economy in 2012. Coupled with fears of renewed unrest around March’s presidential election, this will add to pressure on the government to loosen its purse strings.