Preliminary GDP data released today suggest that the Russian economy had a strong finish to 2009 and mean that GDP growth could top 6% y/y in the first half of this year. However, with the price of oil expected to fall in H2 2010, we suspect that the pace of recovery will ultimately fade. Accordingly, after growing by 4% this year, the economy is likely to grow by just 1.5% y/y in 2011.