If this afternoon’s 50bps hike in Hungarian interest rates was intended to shore up the forint, the move has flopped. But in truth it was always likely that a far larger increase would be needed to strengthen the currency. With the euro-crisis set to intensify and a deal with the IMF still some way off, we think there remains a greater than 50:50 chance that the National Bank will be forced into more aggressive interest rate hikes over the next 3-6 months.