A raft of Q4 GDP data for Emerging Europe, due next week, is likely to show that growth slowed sharply across the region. It appears that the Czech economy ended 2011 in recession and the Hungarian economy contracted sharply over the quarter. The good news is that monthly survey data suggest that activity has at least stabilised at the start of this year. But we still think the region’s growth will remain weak – and the Czech Republic is unlikely to be the only economy to fall back into recession.