In a Focus piece last month we outlined three possible ways in which the political situation in Russia might develop. Although it is still too early to say with any certainty how events will play out, all the signs are that our central scenario is unfolding: the government has so far tolerated protests, while at the same time promising political and economic liberalisation. Even so, a fundamental shift in policy direction still looks unlikely and, for now, the risks to Russian markets remain skewed to the downside.