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Emerging Europe Analyst

Emerging Europe Analyst

Bond yields near convergence, but political risks remain (Q1 2005)

The first round of new ERM entrants (Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia) is on track for EMU entry in January 2007, followed by Latvia in 2008. These are very strong candidates for EMU, and their bond yields have already fallen close to euro-zone levels. However, the largest economies among the 10 new EU entrants still have a more uncertain route to EMU. The Czech and Slovak bond markets are also close to euro-zone yield levels, and appear to be underestimating the risks involved.

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